Post debate polls

YouGov and Angus Reid are both calling the third debate for Cameron. YouGov have figures of Cameron 41%, Brown 25%, Clegg 32%.

Angus Reid’s live figures so far, are showing Cameron the victor of the third debate – Cameron 36%, Brown 22%, Clegg 31%.

UPDATE: ComRes also have Cameron winning but with a narrower margin – Cameron 35%, Clegg 33%, Brown 26%.

UPDATE2:
Angus Reid are now at Cameron 37%, Clegg 30%, Brown 23% – I’m not sure if that’s their final figures yet. Populus are calling it as a draw between Cameron and Clegg – figures are Cameron 38%, Clegg 38%, Brown 25%.

UPDATE3: ICM’s instant poll is also out now. Another Cameron victory, but this time Gordon Brown is second – figures are Cameron 35%, Brown 29%, Clegg 27%.

UPDATE4:
Angus Reid have closed their poll – final figures are Cameron 36%, Clegg 30%, Brown 23%


254 Responses to “Post debate polls”

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  1. ht tp://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010/feb/22/nadhim-zahawi-yougov-election-mp

  2. @ Eoin
    My prediction for the NE using regional poll consolidation in PoliticsHome as guide and individual seat record for local flavour. By the way the PH chart for the NE is C20,L39, LD35, O 9. Yes, it does add up to 103, but that is what the chart says!

    Con gains from Lab Tynemouth. Possible Stockton S

    LD gains from Lab Durham City of, Blaydon, Newcastle N, Newcastle E, Middlesboro S & Cleveland,Hartlepool,Blyth Valley. Possibles Newcastle Central, Bishop Auckland

    What’s yours?

  3. “If Labour and the Libdems have enough seats between them to form a majority then GB could remain as PM, but only IF Nick Clegg can swallow his pride and arrogance, realise he doesn’t hold the trump cards and that a deal with Brown is his only hope of power, and go into coalition.”

    IMO it has nothing to do with “pride and arrogance” – though that’s the way it has been spun, and I know that some Labour supporters feel justifiably aggrieved at the suggestion that a leader of another party might “dictate” to them that they had to change their leader.

    As I see it, it is rather a political calculation: to prop up Brown as PM with Labour in third place in the popular vote (if that’s the way things roll) would be political suicide. Given that, and especially given the widely-reported “poisoned chalice” remarks attributed to Mervyn King, the Lib Dems might well consider that it is in their long-term interests to remain in opposition, rather than join a coalition whose democratic legitimacy appeared questionable.

    In any event, the point may be moot, for three reasons:

    1. the electoral arithmetic doesn’t leave much lee-way for Labour coming third *and* having enough seats to combine with the Lib Dems to form a governing coalition;
    2. Labour may come second – if so, Clegg’s remarks don’t apply;
    3. if Labour came third, Brown might decide to step down anyway.

  4. I thought GB was outstanding tonight I was surprised the polls indicated otherwise. Gordon exuberantly displayed his leadership prowess confirming his substance vs style approach. Clegg was off-balance today. Cameron despite his confidence I thought he left a few unanswered questions. I know this debate has left many people undecided, but I give it to Gordon Brown at the end of the day.

  5. As a new poster, I’ve enjoyed the contributions to this site over the past couple of weeks. Thanks to all the regular posters!

    For what it’s worth, it seems to me that all this talk of coalition and “who will Clegg support?” will prove moot. In the end the party with the largest number of MPs will form a minority government. That’s because the Libs will have little real choice but to sit on their hands when it comes to the Queen’s Speech etc. If they start out supporting the second place party then they really have to stick with them all the way, through years of unpopular austerity measures. To do otherwise would be to risk triggering a premature election (since the largest party would be able to vote down the governing party if it lost Lib support). An early election would simply confirm the criticism that hung parliaments (and by extension PR) lead to unstable government, and the Libs would be the long-term strategic losers. For coalition government to work, a hung parliament is not enough. You also need fixed terms, and we don’t have ’em! The Libs are wise, in my opinion, to have set the very high 75% bar for coalition – it’s a dangerous thing!

    On the other hand, abstaining on the Queen’s Speech and allowing the biggest party to form a minority government allows the Libs to continue with their successful strategy of triangulation. They could influence policy, and seek to share credit for popular policies, while avoiding blame for the unpopular stuff. It would be a tricky balancing act (and not particularly edifying or principled), but less dangerous than being shackled to Cameron or Brown. Joining the government may be the right strategy if you have 15 MPs and desperately need the credibility of the ministerial Jag, but it’s not the route to power with 80+ MPs and second place (or even a close third) in the popular vote. If Clegg plays the next 4 years in the Commons with the same skill as the debates, he could turn a 28-31% this time into the 37-38% he needs for an absolute majority of his own. If that happens, expect the Liberals’ enthusiasm for PR to miraculously evaporate!

    For the Gordon partisans out there – take heart, all is not lost. If Labour lead in MPs on May 7th, GB will be PM, whatever Nick said about coming third. To vote down Brown would be, in the words of Mandy, to marry Cameron . . . and vice versa!

  6. “An opinion poll for the Sun has found more people thought none the worse of Gordon Brown for describing a Labour voter as a “bigoted woman”, than believed he was a hypocrite – but the newspaper decided not to publish the figures.”

    h t tp://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/29/unpublished-sun-poll-brown-bigot

  7. @FrankG (12.59)

    Frank,
    During more than one discussion on this site between Eoin and I, he has consistantly refused to accept that the LDs can take any of the seats you mention. I have been involved in Newcastle North & East and am convinced we will take North with a distinct possibility of East.

    Personally I would agree with most of your list.

  8. The pre- and post- debate polls are, by definition, selective since they only include a sample of those who watch the debates live. It’s unlikely that they form a representative sample of the electorate as a whole (although who they therefore favour is anyone’s guess).

  9. After reviewing the debate again, I think that Gordon Brown’s strategy of attacking Cameron and Clegg on several issues was probably the correct one. GB already knows that the post-debate polls are impossible for him to win, and very little of what he says at this point will persuade the people who already view him negatively. It looked to me that he was playing to a cohort of center-left undecideds and core Labour supporters rather than the broader electorate, and I think this is probably the right move for him.

    Looking at the debate from this angle, it makes sense that Brown would be on the offensive. He needs to mobilize the Labour base, and it appears like the issue of spending cuts and the child tax credit poll well, so he hammered those themes home. If he can bring Clegg down a notch and win over some of the center-left undecideds, he could stave off defeat and soften the electoral blow.

    The real wild card here is Clegg – if he can mobilize the youth vote to a fraction of the extent that Obama did here, May 6 might be a very good day for the Lib Dems.

  10. Based on pre-campaign expectations (and assuming the polls are right) May 6 looks like being good for the LibDems, bad for the Tories and much as expected for Labour.

  11. Election analysis programme after debate, when DC was talking about immigration:

    ‘The Blue worm dipped dramatically!’

    This is the new modern face of intelligent political analysis. Politics is now to be viewed through the prism of these mysterious worms which go mysteriously up and down to an unquantifiable extent in accordance to the aggregated base prejudices of the populace.

  12. @ Frank G ‘So I think DC38, NC33 and BG 27. The last 3 points I award to the moderator for the wonderful refrain ” i will read the question again!” ‘

    Sorry, Frank, but nul points for the moderator, because he failied to moderate, c.f. the excellent moderatiuon in debate 1. All the main failures of moderation appeared to play against Clegg, eg
    1. Not interrupting Brown, and then asking all three would-be PMs to clarify and be specific, the 3rd (of many) times that Brown mentioned ‘cutting child credit’, despite Clegg (and Cameron too) having made clear that their proposal only applied to higher income families.
    2. Not insisting that Brown and Cameron answered the question that Clegg kept asking: but ‘what would YOU do about the estimated 600k illegal immigrants?’
    3. Not insisting that Cameron accept or deny that 80% of current immigration to the UK is from the EU, and therefore unstoppable by Treaty obligations, despite many attempts by Clegg to get him to answer.
    4. Not even exploring the question of the UK joining the Euro – expilicitly ruled out ‘forever’ by Cameron, whatever the interests of the country; accepted by Clegg, subject to the conditions being right and the people voting in favour in a referendum; question not put to Brown at all.
    5, 6, 7 etc etc etc

    Any half-decent listener can identify when a question has been evaded, and on the whole, Dimbleby did that low level job OK, though far from grade A.

    A proper moderator’s task, however, was to ensure that critical issues of dispute were put to the would-be PMs and answers obtained, for the enlightenment of the electorate. Dimbleby did not even try to do so. Deprived of the chance to play the ‘Question Time’ ringmaster with the audience, the bread and circuses showman unsurprisingly failed where the serious moderator Stewart had so ably succeeded.

    With proper moderation, Cameron, above all, would have been put on the spot and brought down several pegs. I hope that he is pursued on these and other crucial questions by competent interviewers and forced to answer them before next Thursday.

  13. There’s no chance of Cameron being made to feel the pressure by anyone in the media between now and may 6th. I think he’ll continue to get the easy ride.

    the question is whether pressure on the other two will lead to the tories getting above the 37% they need for a chance of an overall majority.

  14. @Wolf MacNeill

    Absolutely agree with you: DD was the worst moderator of the three by far. Deadened any debate by his insistence on repeating the questions and seemed tired and bored by the whole affair. It really is time to move on BBC!

  15. @KeithinBristol

    All fair points.

    In addition, what is it about the behaviour of the Labour party over the last 12 months that leads anyone to think that Brown will either be able to retain party leadership after losing a general election – especially if he has allowed Labour to slip to 3rd place – or to jeopardise Labour’s chance of staying in power as part of a coalition through insistence on remaining as leader? Many Labour commnetators have argued for some time that a new leader was Labour’s only hope of winning this GE.

    By contrast, if Clegg gets the LDs to within even a sniff of government his party will be putty in his hands.

  16. Brown:- Tired & knackered-take a well earned rest.

    Clegg:-Excitable & enthusiastic-come back again later

    Cameron:-Prime Ministerial-OK-you wanted it-but remember what Mervyn said-you have been warned.

  17. @@Wolf MacNeill at 2.37am

    Absolutely agree with your analysis and HOW frustrating to see the debaters getting away with not answering certain points.

    Definately a poorish show from DD/BBC

  18. There was nothing wrong with Dimbleby. After two leaders had wittered on, it did help to remind the audience what the question was supposed to be!!

    He did ask Brown and Clegg a question. When Boulton asked one question of Cleggy many were screaming Murdoch plot!!

  19. @All

    Many of the points above are valid, but the whole format itself does not allow detailed cross-examination of the answers. Getting the questions asked by the audience may be good television, lots of flashing between leader and questioner shots, but most times too much ‘waffle’ allowed to the leader in his reply. Yes, teachers do a good job, but about 30% of each leaders answer was spent sychophantically toadying up to the questioner and thus not spent on the question. My own preference would be have the audience, but have the question asked by the moderator. Have more specific questions. Make sure the leader stays on topic. Over half of GB’s 1st reply on the immigration was on jobs etc. and only about half way through did he talk on the subject.

    The format is too stilted, too formal and too much orientated towards style. It seems more in favour of the TV reality show and getting big audience figures.

    The TV shots afterwards of the ‘spin room’, by totally biased politicians, blatantly spinning for their candidate was truely sickening. What a load of hot air, that made me sometimes think they had not even watched the ‘show’, but just going on churning out pre-prepared sound bites.

    Overall, too much hype, too much emphasis on the TV quiz show. Are we electing a leader to take us into the future and drastically affect oour lives and future generations or are we voting on a TV talent contest.

  20. FrankG “…are we voting on a TV talent contest”

    Sadly, I think the latter is the case. And of course Mr Ugly (whoever that might be) will never win such contests.

  21. I have not read through the thread so forgive me if covered.
    IMO the post debate polls after this one are the most significant we have seen.
    I am biased being a labour party member but could see that Clegg easily won the first and that the second was pretty even breaking in line with party support generally.
    It seemed to me, though, that GB was the best of the 3 for most of the time last night.
    I am not saying this to try to pursuade anyone.
    My point is that the game is probably up if he does well and scores that low.
    Apparently worms dropped when he started before he said anything but recvored a bit when he got going.
    I can only guess that the dog whistle will be even louder in an attempt to try to limit the damage now and you never no we may deny ther cons and outright majority if we scrape 31-32%.

  22. General non-partisan observation:

    I can now understand why the numbers watching the presidential debates in the USA have consistently decreased.

  23. A lot of comments on here talking about a LibD/Labour coalition. Given that Nick clegg has said that he would back the party which had the greatest share of the vote or number of seats(unless he is being less than truthful), is not inconceivable for a Libd/Tory coalition in the event of a hung parliament?

    I personally believe that Nick clegg and David Cameron have a lot of respect for each other.

    I would also question those people on this site who believe that Gordon Brown won the debate. Were you watching the same debate!

  24. I approached this debate with an open mind and thought all three did well at times – Clegg less so, he looked and sounded immature at times.

    I tried to see them in their natural roles, independent of my bias and came up with these –

    DC – leader, serious, idealistic
    NC – kid’s TV presenter, excitable, a little patronising but trying to explain things in simple terms
    GB – chancellor/bursar, serious, arguing finances vs aspirations but a bit contrary

    My fiancee who was considering voting LibDem said she found Clegg annoying in the end, “smug”.

  25. Gordon Brown will be happy how that went. He knew in advance that negativity turns the voters off. He knew that it meant he would not storm the ratings afterwards. He took that chance. I think it hindsight he will be satisfied he took the right course. It is the highest ratings he has achieved thus far with a lot of those aftermath polls. In view of the fact that the previous day was Duffygate, it willbe a massive success if that is hardly mentioned today. Of course, it will appear in the Sunday press as her publicist gets the ebst deal for her. No one can deny that a clear divide does not exist between the big two.

    Cameron will also be very happy. His performance bodes well for PMQ since he was able to successfully duck Brown’s attempts to pin him down. He also communicated in much more simple and effective terms tot he public. Even if you know little abot economics, you understand Cameron, he is an effective communicator. He did not deny the big accusation slevied at him, this will bode well if he becomes PM. Since as Colin says, nobody can deny he did not tell you how it was going to be.

    All in all, the best debate to date. Very effective moderating from Dimbleby. Both big two will be satisfied at the outcome and the prospective week that lies ahead. It will be very interesting how these ratings convert into votes. I say red/blue gain at expense of yellow. Plain and simple.

  26. Eoin Clarke

    “All in all, the best debate to date. Very effective moderating from Dimbleby. Both big two will be satisfied at the outcome and the prospective week that lies ahead. It will be very interesting how these ratings convert into votes. I say red/blue gain at expense of yellow. Plain and simple.”

    I agree with most of what you say Eoin apart from the last part. I believe it will be a blue/yellow gain at the expense of the red!

  27. I understood Nick Clegg to have said that the party with the largest share of the vote AND the most seats should be allowed to TRY to form a government – he’s said noting about automatically supporting them!!

  28. @Eoin

    My reading exactly. I think many Lab/Con who had dallied with a LibDem vote will be returning to the fold after that.

  29. Next poll predictions

    Con 38
    Lab 28
    LD 26

  30. Oh if only we could have a junk filter on this site so we could have a sensible discussion. AW has done his best but some of the comments are at school-yard yah-boo level. A few posters have realised that all is not as it first appears. The so-called ‘debates’ have been hijacked by the backroom teams and spin doctors who saw the three events for what they really were – prime time TV adverts. Forget the studio audience and rigged ‘worms’. Just get the outer packaging right and never mind what is really inside the carton. The lowest form of political exchange. Very sad IMHO.

    IMHO DC was better than last time. Of course he didn’t answer some of the questions. He had limited time to get his own core messages across and they came first. We will only discover where his spending axe will fall if and when he becomes PM. His stock answer is that he needs to ‘see the books first’, which is true, but it means that all we have to go on meanwhile is generalisations and guesswork.The makeup department did him no favours.

    NC was more nervous this time, spoke too quickly and tripped over his words, which made him come across as a bit lightweight. He had a better grasp of detail than DC and thought well on his feet, so he was confident enough to depart from the script when necessary. He is Prime Minister material, just needs to work on some minor points.

    GB did his own thing and plugged away very well with the key messages which Lab strategists wanted. Messages for Lab core voters and the waverers who were thinking of voting LibDem. He raised the spectre of a Con-LibDem coalition a couple of times for a good reason. His grasp of the economic issues and detail was solid. Blue tinted folk were never going to credit him with anything so he was right to concentrate on messages which were aimed at his core vote. Those who say ‘too negative’ conveniently forget their own anti-GB posters, not to mention the relentless dirt-digging by Murdoch and others.

    May 6th – Con 33 Lab 30 LibDem 26

  31. @ Eoin

    By the way, off topic, but the Mirror seem to have confirmed your belief that Duffygate came about because Gordon Brown mis-heard the word ‘flocking’ – thought you’d be interested.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2010/04/30/pm-thought-gillian-had-said-f-word-115875-22222307/

  32. @Billy,

    Thanks for that. The New Statesman also carry that story. It will never filter through to the public at this stage. Some might say that is a pity.

  33. Either these polls are very wrong or the people of this country are easily duped by a smarmy salesman who refused to give a single straight answer when challenged. Sadly the latter is probably true. I was also very disappointed in the content of the debates, a lot of important issues ignored or glossed over and far too much time spend on non or minor issues like immigration.

    I think in future the format needs to encourage more straight answers and less of them waffling pre-prepared nonsense, we have party political broadcasts for that.

  34. I thought Gordon Brown looked like Richard Nixon at the end.
    I feel pretty sorry for Gordon but he’s kept going – fair play to him for that.

  35. Interesting quote attributed to “Alistair Cambell”
    “we’re finished “,when pressed he claimed it was about Burnley mmmmm.That was days ago.
    Enough said

  36. I can’t see the polls moving much in the next week, but probably see a slight strengthening in the tory vote and a slight weakening in the LibDem vote. Labour will stay fairly static so it will go right to the wire to see who comes second in the popular vote. Probably 36/28/28, but with some pretty odd results due to TV. I expect Torys to just south of 290, lab at best 220, Libs just over 100 and mostly gains from Lab rather than blue.

    So that leaves Clegg with the only option of a coalition with the tories. The question is that given that Lib will pick up most of their gains from Labour is that really the result Liberal supporters want? Could the next election be a repeat of 1924 for the Liberals?

  37. “A lot of comments on here talking about a LibD/Labour coalition. Given that Nick clegg has said that he would back the party which had the greatest share of the vote or number of seats(unless he is being less than truthful), is not inconceivable for a Libd/Tory coalition in the event of a hung parliament?”

    He’ll back the party which offers him the best deal. I can’t see he can do otherwise, whatever he’s said beforehand. Electoral reform must be critical if his party is to have a future.

  38. I agree with those on here that say Gordon Brown could never have won the debate last night. As people overwhelmingly perceive he will do badly, they are likely to think that no matter what he says. Saying this, though, he is definitely the least competent performer out of the three. I don’t think Labour will rise much in the polls between now and the 6th, but I do think Clegg’s slide will continue, even if just a little. Last night he came across as a one trick pony (talking about the ‘old parties’) and he blatently mislead people over Lib Dem policies on immigration and Europe. In the Lib Dem manifesto it actually says it’s a long term aspiration that Britain should join the Euro, but in the debate Clegg spinned himself to sound like a retentionist of the pound.

    Also, apparently, on Sunday both the Mail and NotW are printing stories after interviewing Gillian Duffy. If it transpires that a large amount of money has switched hands I think people will see her as an opportunist and Brown will gain support from this in the polls.

  39. It’s a pity Cameron wasn’t challenged more effectively on two of his most blatant lies – that the cap on immigrants would affect all immigration and that the NI tax increase would affect all workers.

  40. Jay – Roland is right.
    your view (which I support BTW) is not refelctive of public opinion which places immigartion high on importance and saliency.

  41. I don’t understand the basis on which so many posters here are expecting erosion of the LD share in the next few days. It’s proved remarkably resilient so far. I think it’s more likely that with post-debate fallout and Duffygate continuing, the reality of Labour + GB in third place will become generally accepted. The question is: will that tend to depress the Lab vote further or increase it through a ‘rallying the troops’ effect? I think the former.
    The average of the 5 post debate polls was DC 37, NC 31, GB 25.6. On that basis, I’ll go for GE at C36, LD31, Lab26.

  42. @American Observer

    How much coverage is the British general election getting in the US? We couldn’t get your’s off our screens ;)

  43. 8m viewers watched the debate live so the other 19m+ will get their impressions second-hand.

  44. Billy and Eoin, are you really that credulous?

    The Mirror story confirms nothing. It is just the only Labour-supporting newspaper repeating the Labour PR machine’s desperate attempt to spin the story.

  45. The angus reid poll is very interesting
    h ttp://www.angusreidelections.co.uk/2010/04/third-debate/

    It shows the tory vote has solidified, while the undecided vote has swung towards the lib-dems.

    The lib-lab voters gave each other a far more positive vote for each of the other parties, rather than the tory vote, voting for the tories.

  46. Diane Abbott made an interesting point on This Week last night. With the debates now being the most important part of the election campaign, it will completely change the way party leaders are chosen. Unfortunately, style while indeed be places before substance, and I think this is the most regrettable outcome of the debates.

    On the other hand, they have encouraged people to get involved with politics, people who might never have done so before. The debates might act as a trigger, with people then seeking to find further information post debate. With the internet, this could well be a good thing.

    The debates are a mixed bag, but they have certainly changed politics forever.

    In regards to last night’s debate, it is my personal opinion that Brown won, with Clegg second. However, I agree with his policies, so I would think that wouldn’t I?

    Considering that Brown is more unpopular than his party, and Cameron more popular than his party, the immediate results don’t surprise me. I actually really don’t know what the polls will say tonight, or for the next week however, and don’t think any valid predictions can really be made until at least Sunday.

  47. @Rogerh

    It’s a pity Cameron wasn’t challenged more effectively on two of his most blatant lies – that the cap on immigrants would affect all immigration and that the NI tax increase would affect all workers.

    April 30th, 2010 at 10:55 am

    Interesting! Try facts not prejudice! Try logic, not prejudice!

    1. Immigration is about 30% from EU and 70% from non-EU, not as NC stated 80% EU. the Con cap will put a limit on Non – EU of 10,000s not 100,000s as at present. The amount to be decided inconjunction with consultations with the various bbdies involve, not arbitary ‘targets’ plucked out of the air by govt and imposed without consultation on the bodies that know better than the govt what the consequencies will be ,just for soound bite electoral gain. GB was told repeatedly both in this and the other two debates that by DC, but continued to ask DC to state the cap – Can he not understand CLEAR answers, or is it that all he wanted to hear was him chanting out a scripted and untruthful mantra. Immigration from existing EU is an EU RIGHT, confirmed by the Lisbon Treaty that both Lab and Lib wanted. Calls for a referendum on the treaty were denied by Lab and LD refused to join the Con calls. NC was forced to admit that the LD amnesty policy could result in over 600,000 illegals earning the right to citizenship and then having the RIGHT to bring over up to 600,000 more relatives. ‘Illegals’ are not from the EU, EU immigrants already have the RIGHT to be over here, they are NOT illegals. Many of that huge Polish bulge have actually returned to Poland or gone elsewhere in the EU anyway. UK was not the panacea they thought.

    2. Yes, the NI tax increase being repealed is only the employers part of the tax, not on the individuals part. GB had the opportunity to challenge both DC and NC to point this out, but chose NOT to do so, probably because it would have reinforced the Con and LD contention that is is a ‘tax on jobs’. So to challenge would have been an ‘own goal’.

    GB refused to listen to what the other two have told him about his ‘selective’ claims to be both Con policy and LD policy. As usual he does not listen! It is an unfortunate trait of his character. He seems to think that if he continues to mis-represent the policies of the opposition, that people will believe him. Well Lab supporters may do so, it is often easier to believe lies rather than accept that opponents may actually have a point. Even as a Con supporter I have to agree with NC that something has to be done about the massive number of illegal immigrants, I just don’t think that giving in to it by making them legal is the right way or the right signal to send. That is why IMO the LD policy is wrong. We could make the crime statistics disappear in a flash, just by making crimes ‘legal’ and an amesty for criminals. That would be seen as stupid, but it is the way the LD would tackle the immigration problem. It is like crime, you need to solve it, not change the statistics and legalise elements of it so that the ‘problem’ seems to disappear.

    My apologies to other posters who have to read this post rather than having non partisan discussion on polls, but sometimes un-substantiated bias and disingenuous statements need to be rebuffed. Apologies!

  48. @Eoin Clarke

    My post at 1250am, last night gave my take on the situation in the NE, did you get it?

    I have also done one for the NW as well, interested?

  49. I took part in the Harris survey which was carried out throughout the debate.
    Are there any results?

  50. @FrankG

    I agree with your overall point about facts and evidence but:

    1/ DC did seem very reluctant to accept that a cap would not affect EU immigration and I think the Conservatives have been quite happy to allow this confusion to develop

    2/ I am not sure there is a monopoly on the misrepresentation of opponent’s policies by any one of the main parties

    3/ Your argument on illegal immigration would be so much stronger if you could at least give some plausible idea of how this problem could be addressed. If the LD’s solution is not the way to do it, what is?

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