Post debate polls

YouGov and Angus Reid are both calling the third debate for Cameron. YouGov have figures of Cameron 41%, Brown 25%, Clegg 32%.

Angus Reid’s live figures so far, are showing Cameron the victor of the third debate – Cameron 36%, Brown 22%, Clegg 31%.

UPDATE: ComRes also have Cameron winning but with a narrower margin – Cameron 35%, Clegg 33%, Brown 26%.

UPDATE2:
Angus Reid are now at Cameron 37%, Clegg 30%, Brown 23% – I’m not sure if that’s their final figures yet. Populus are calling it as a draw between Cameron and Clegg – figures are Cameron 38%, Clegg 38%, Brown 25%.

UPDATE3: ICM’s instant poll is also out now. Another Cameron victory, but this time Gordon Brown is second – figures are Cameron 35%, Brown 29%, Clegg 27%.

UPDATE4:
Angus Reid have closed their poll – final figures are Cameron 36%, Clegg 30%, Brown 23%


254 Responses to “Post debate polls”

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  1. I dont want Cameron to win, i would prefer Nick Clegg, but by the looks of it, Cameron will win.

    Although, can we realy trust these polls, especialy when UPDATE2: Angus Reid adds to 101%

  2. Next time, two debates are enough. Nothing new said in this one. Pollsters voting largely by party. I doubt this will change much. Hopefully, the leaders can take a backseat and policies get to the front (fat chance, steel yourself for two days of someone caught picking their nose).

    How about instead of a Captcha, there’s a tick box to say “I agree this comment is non-partisan”? Get to the Europa Football League for that nonsense.

  3. I suspect an average of the the post debate ‘reaction’ polls, will be very similar to the latest average of voting intention polls, i.e Con 34% Lab 28% Lib 29% or thereabouts.

    For most people I don’t think the 3 debates will have changed what there original voting intention (if any ) was. The big event will probably the increase in registration and turnout triggered by the first debate, although to be honest I don’t think turnout will have been boosted by tonights contest.

    I had a slight sense tonight, that although the instincts of the three men is clearly to win, this is the election it is best to lose.

    The phantom ash-cloud and sunny skies of the first 10 days has been replaced by heavy rain, and the very real cloud of the financial crisis.

    Brown to win most seats by a whisker….

  4. None of the polls show a clear victory to anyone, allowing a couple of percent eiterror her way, they’re all pretty similar, no-one polling around 35% can claim any kind of victory.

  5. PTicks;

    I thought the problem was implicit in my comment: I thought Brown’s closing comments were dreadful, although I admire him in many ways and would be ok about him remaining pm. He is widely judged to have come last so I think my opinion can be seen as being shared by others and clearly objective.

    On the other hand Nick Clegg, who won many of of last weeks debate polls, and came a close second tonight, is adjudged by you to have been bad and weak on both occasions.

    I suggest your “analysis” is just a reflection of your own low opinion and nothing more.

  6. -polls
    -People can answer the question regarding who is the best debater objectively.
    -That does not mean they intend to vote for the same person they thought won the debate.

  7. @ Anthony Wells

    You must really hate these debates seeing as they’ve managed to ruin the whole, non-partisan site thing ;)

  8. Cameron is fairly certain he has 36%. Tonight he was after the 2-3% of others especially UKIP that will give him 38/9% and a majority.

    What the other 60% of voters think of tonight is of absolutely no importance to him at all.

  9. @Dominic: it will only be a bad election to win if the winner can’t last 5 years. After 5 years the economy should be back on track.

    What it does mean is that any coalition will have to stick it out for a full Parliament. Anything less could lead to electoral demolition.

  10. I don’t mind people having opinions, but the blatantly biased statements and “HA”‘s on here are just going to reduce the debate the school-yard stuff.

    Here’s my take. Cameron is being declare the winner, but mostly by the Tory press who’s readers are all safely in his column. So, are we really going to see a huge shift in poll numbers: No, probably not.

    I honestly think there is enough anti-Tory vote out there to deny them a majority, but probably only just. At this point I think national polls aren’t going to tell us much more because I don’t see them shifting much – the question is going to be regional – Cameron will win a majority – if he does – in the Southwest, and the LibDem’s will leverage the most power if they can convert in Labour seats where the Tory’s don’t stand a chance, mostly in the North and London. I could give two hoots for the opinions of people elsewhere at this stage.

  11. BBC commentators say DC had a prime ministerial appearance tonight

  12. One very interesting thing I noted is that Populus had a 101% response! Of course, in all probability there has been a rounding up of the numbers. But what that does highlight is that unlike the others Populus seems to have had no ‘none’ or ‘don’t know’ option. And when forced to make a choice, Cameron and Clegg were equal and Brown far behind!!!!!!!!

  13. I’m still not convinced that just because the polls show us that Cameron won or Clegg won the debate that it will actually swing that many more votes either way.

    Brown was always likely to come last based on the fact that he is by far the least popular of the three to start with. That low popularity level obviously unlikely to be helped by recent events.

    Therefore I think the public watching was never going to rate Brown as high as the other two.

    The real question is not who came first in the debate but if anyone actually managed to change anyones vote as a result of the debate.

    We won’t have an inkling of that until the weekend polls probably.

  14. @theresa
    Cam has a decent lead in th polls – all polls – a week before the GE. It doesn’t matter whether he looks prime ministerial or not. At things stand, he is most likely to BE prime minister!

  15. I found this debate to be the most unspectacular of the lot. Probably because we already had two. It sounded more like a typical day in Westminster.

    Cameron did what he was expected to do in winning the audience’s approval with the kind of smooth talking performance we had expected from before the first debate, finally. Managing to avoiding scrutiny quite effectively.

    Clegg smudged somewhat, like he had been expected to from before the debates, finally. He cowed away from selling the more notorious parts of his manifesto and presenting them to the audience as something positive.

    GB had plenty of things to say, as we’d expected from the first debate, but he just doesn’t seem to be able to transmit them in an attractive way to an audience, as we’ve always known he can’t.

    In other words, by the third debate, they’d all found their measure and were fully living up to pre-debate expectations. Hence why it has become quite dull, I feel.

    I doubt this debate has done much to further anyone’s understanding on policy issues, and merely reconfirmed pre-existing tribalism.

    I expect to see the Tories gradually creep back up towards 40%, Labour to stay pretty much where it is, and the Lib Dems to fall back towards 25% or so.

  16. @RAF
    -Really,,,,,most polls indicate there will be a hung parliament,
    -So…you think the LibDems or Lab will help the CONs form a majority govt?
    ….or….
    -Do you think the Cons will win enough seats to form a majority govt outright?

  17. @SSSimon: there’s a disconnect between your analysis & your conclusion. If it was that dull, it won’t change current VIs.

  18. we will know the winner from the polls.

    This debate was about solidifying supporters and converting undecided.

    So for me the instant polls are largely irrelevant.

    I think it is very clear now that only the Blue team can win it. Wasn’t that always the case?

    The sub battle here is for 2nd place whether or not the Lib Dems push Labour into 3rd place and by how much?

    I don’t think the Lib Dem support will melt far from it

  19. Its a bit odd that the polls show Cameron won but when real people were ask in Bolton & Birmingham Brown won

  20. I see no reason for the Lib Dem poll position to fall back. Lib Dems ALWAYS outperfrom their opinion poll ratings when it comes to polling day.

    I predict Tories 35.5%, Lib Dems 29% and Labour 27%, and a small (tiny) Tory majority.

  21. I am astonished at these poll results, any bias aside the idea that Cameron was the best by any discernible margin is simply absurd. Either we have a problem with the polling method (unlikely) or the public don’t care about the policy detail that Clegg and Brown delivered more than Cameron, compared to the perceived hard line on Immigration of Cameron compared to the other two. Insane.

  22. @ DEREK

    I didn’t say it wouldn’t change the outcome just because it was unspectacular and because it reconfirms existing tribalism.

    The media will announce that Cameron finally won, and so momentum will switch to his side, galvinise their supporters and soft-voters, and their numbers will probably rise.

    While the ‘failure’ of Clegg will probably see his supporters deflated and some drift away.

    Meanwhile Labour’s vote seems pretty solidly stuck where it is.

  23. @theresa
    It depends what you mean by “hung parliament”. The collapse in the Lab vote seems genuine. If that happens the Tories may not need more than 35-36% to be on the cusp of an overall majority.
    On the question of coalitions with the Tories, the answer is No. Ironically Labour are closer in policy terms than the LDs are, but the membership of both would fiercely resist any formal coalition with the Tories.
    I suppose my point is that even if the Tories do not get an overall majority, they will get very close to it and try to govern as a minority government.

  24. with a lot of undecideds still to show a preference,

    (they haven’t been persuaded by the argument for change),

    Brown’s closing statement ‘these two are not ready for government’, may prove to be the single most important soundbite of the campaign

  25. The snap polls are interesting. I personally thought Brown did much better than previously and actually did better than Nick Clegg in this debate, perhaps enough to reclaim second place in the polls for Labour. And I’m not a Brown supporter by any means.

  26. To misquote a US politician, whose name I cannot recall at the moment, when commenting on a US Presidential debate in the 1980s, are we now in this forthcoming UK election similarly presented with a choice between the evil of three lessers??

    On tonight’s evidence, I rather think we are. It was depressingly sterile and peculairly devoid of spark and passion. It reminded me of three provincial bank managers giving job interviews for a vaguely senior position at their local branch.

    Cometh the hour, cometh no man, I’m afraid.

  27. Did anyone notice that ITV had to reset its website Leaders vote poll three quarters the way through because Camerons vote went from 10% to 38% in about 10 minutes.

    Wonder how someone managed to fiddle it?

  28. Lots of people decide who won on the basis of party loyalty. The Conservatives are slightly ahead in the polls so Cameron wins the debate by a small margin.

    But look at the undecided voters. They are the ones who will really be affected by the debate because they may now decide which party to vote for. And Clegg won quite clearly in a poll of these voters so that’s good news for him.

    (And to those who wonder why some polls add up to 101% – it’s due to rounding error!)

  29. @Nick Hadley
    The evil of three lessers :)
    So you don’t think Cameron is Churchill? Brown, Martin Luther King? Clegg, Malcolm X?

  30. Chris Box – the two polls on the website for Chanel 4 & ITV both had more or less the same result 44/42/14 Brown/Clegg/Cameron which are massively different from the standard pollsters…..very strange.

    Anthony do you have a view why?

  31. To be honest, Cameron’s case was the hardest to fight (not a personal assessment, just a political one) so for him to get through without doing terribly was a success for him, just like Clegg’s performance in the second was a success and Brown’s performance in the first was a success.

    However, if Cameron had indeed “won” this debate (I would rate him, as in the other two debates, as a B- or “Fair”, which is a word rarely associated with him) then he has won a major victory.

    Remember- the last debate is always the most important one. He who laughs last, laughs longest. Now the pressure is really on Clegg and Brown to do the tough legwork (literally, to some extent) in order to make up for failing to deliver the killer blow to the Tories in this debate.

  32. Gordon Brown calls Labour supporter a ‘bigot’.

    Anthony Wells calls UKPR supporters ‘Astroturfers’.

    You were not in a happy mood earlier tonight, Anthony ;-)

  33. @RAF
    You commented
    I suppose my point is that even if the Tories do not get an overall majority, they will get very close to it and try to govern as a minority government.
    – I am observing from US; I did not realize they could govern as a minority govt,
    -Do you mean DC can actually be prime minister with a minority govt?

  34. I don’t know whether anyone else shares this view, but Cameron always seems to me to be just a bit too serious. I can’t remember the last time he smiled. It’s as if he thinks the public won’t take him seriously unless he’s always utterly serious himself in demeanour.

  35. Red Rag – yeah, they are self-selecting, open-access polls with no attempt to draw a representative sample or weight to make it representative. In other words – voodoo polls. They are also easily packed by parties encouraging supporters to vote on them.

    The clientel on both are likely to have the same skews (and in the case of organised packing of them, are likely to be exactly the same people)

  36. @Theresa,

    Yes. As a consequence of our executive and legislative branches being intertwined (unlike yours) the Prime Minister is (usually) the person who’s party has the most seats, which may well be very much less than the majority. He can carry on for as long as he likes so long as he doesn’t lose a “confidence vote”. He may not get any new laws passed of course….

    It’s a bit like having a president from one party and a congress of the other. Gridlock. Unless, of course, other parties can be persuaded to support the government’s policies. In practice that is what we would expect to happen.

  37. @theresa
    Indeed. The constitutional arrangements are very complex, but in essence if Labour cannot win outright or put together a coalition strong enough for them to pass their Queen’s Speech (legislative programme for the next parliamentary session), the Tories will be asked to see if they can form a governenment. While a coalition is preferable, if they can pass their Queen’s Speech without one, they could govern as a minority government.

  38. I think this is the most biased TV coverage since when i have been able to vote (1970) examples ITV presenter giving his own opinion on who won the debate tonight,Sky new coverage yesterday 80% re GB’s gaffe both not very balanced.

  39. Big difference between ICM and Populus but general trend is Cameron ahead and Clegg the second choice, though didn’t have quite as confident a performance. Personally thought it was pretty close between Cameron and Clegg. Brown was stronger but thought he came across as negative and shrill most of the time. Interesting he didn’t attack Nick as much as in previous debate whereas Cameron didn’t hold back. Brown and Cameron in the early stages certainly were trying to squeeze the Liberal Democrats but they didn’t really suceeed and though some of Clegg’s positions may not be universally popular I still think he held his ground.

  40. I think when discussing who will be Prime Minister, or what will happen in a hung parliament, a good rule of thumb is that if the Conservatives win 300 seats Cameron will be PM.

    If Labour and the Libdems have enough seats between them to form a majority then GB could remain as PM, but only IF Nick Clegg can swallow his pride and arrogance, realise he doesn’t hold the trump cards and that a deal with Brown is his only hope of power, and go into coalition.

    In a scenario where the Conservatives are well short of a majority (say on around 280) but where Lab and Lib cannot come to any agreement, I think the Conservatives will run a minority administration, not making the least concessions and daring the others to vote them down. Once they are voted down on something they will go straight back to the country for a clearer mandate.

    I don’t think that last scenario is most likely. I think the Conservatives will be very close to a majority if they do not actually achieve one, and could conceivably govern for a full parliament without the support of Lib or Lab. What will happen then, and when the next election will be, is really anybody’s guess, and depends on events.

  41. @ Bill Patrick

    “He who laughs last, laughs longest”

    I always thought it was He who laughs last, thinks slowest ;)

  42. Doesn’t it seem like the winner of each debate tends to be the one who is most positive? I think Brown consistently did a good job of attacking Clegg and Cameron, but this actually hurt him by distracting people from HIS policies. Equally, Clegg was positive in the first debate and has lost ground as he’s got more negative. Cameron was on the ropes for most of this debate, but that seemed to benefit him by putting the focus on HIS policies and giving him a chance to be positive.

    Negativity is very useful in the HoC and debating clubs. It’s less useful when one is appealing to a general audience, who are looking for a reason to vote for one rather than against one’s opponents.

    The lesson from the debate polling, for 2014/2015, seems to be this: positivity is the key.

  43. Cheers. Anthony – Wonder how one was managed to be addled then?

    Is it easy to fix them?

    Camerons vote went from 10% to 38% in a matter of minutes so ITV had to restart it.

  44. Dan,

    They add up to 101% due to rounding up.

  45. @John Fletcher
    @All

    “Cameron is fairly certain he has 36%. Tonight he was after the 2-3% of others especially UKIP that will give him 38/9% and a majority.”

    Thank you, I wondered if anyone had noticed those plugs on immigration, Euro etc. I thought at the time, that’s for UKIP voters.

    I personally thought it was a much better debate than the other two. Being in the middle is IMO very much a disadvantage.

    Trying to be objective I did think that DC did better than NC and GB was unconvincing. Trotting out the same old lines, despite getting the answer the previous time he asked. Does he have a hearing problem, as well? He was told the answer about immigration caps and about the child tax credit cut being applicable only to those earning over 40,000. Repeating the same old accusations wasted both his time and the audience’s. Why should DC & NC waste their time defending questions already asked and answered. It is a typical debating trick to get your opponent answering on your ground rather than being able to pick his own. It didn’t work.

    When NC spoke to the qestioner, he looked good, but unlike in the first two debates he only seemed to do this in brief flashes. The camera shots from a distance were not kind. At times NC seemed edged out by the bulk of GB and NC almost seemed like a small boy jumping up and down to get attention. GB was really pinned by DC on the govt’s record.

    NC’s repeated attempts to pin problems on both DC and GB, made even me wonder if there had been some secret Lab/Con coalition over the last 13 years. Three complete parliament’s is a long time for it still to be the Cons fault. But then NC only became an MP at the last GE, so his parliamentary experience is very, very limited, as is his experience in any ministerial or shadow ministerial post. How he would be as a PM running a cabinet, I really have to wonder.

    Don’t smile GB, it’s not your style!

    So I think DC38, NC33 and BG 27. The last 3 points I award to the moderator for the wonderful refrain ” i will read the question again!” (Sorry Norway, but you did’nt turn up!:)

  46. Chris Box,

    That tells you something very clear: the people asked in Birmingham and Bolton were more pro-Brown than the general public on a national basis. This is not particularly surprising, if you think about it.

  47. I haven’t watched any of the debates through lack of time and interest, but one thing occurs: since polling questions are generally of the type “what party are you voting for” this is not the same as “which leader sounds best” since thankfully we are not voting presidentially (or are we?) so they’re not really comparable. I think we can be sure that Gordon Brown is less popular than his party and probably David Cameron slightly more so than his.

    Apart from the long-needed extra airtime for the 3rd party I’m wondering what the point of all this was. perhaps two or one debate is enough next time.

  48. @RAF @NEIL A
    -Thank you.
    -Glad to hear there won’t be a prolonged argument about who has the right to form a govt after May 6
    -The world economy is so tenuous right now; we need all hands on deck

  49. @All
    So I think DC38, NC33 and BG 27. The last 3 points I award to the moderator for the wonderful refrain ” i will read the question again!” (Sorry Norway, but you did’nt turn up!:)

    Just in case you hadn’t noticed the figures don’t add up to 100, nut not adding up sems to apply to the figures of all parties nowadays, so I thought I would join in! :)

  50. Bill Patrick

    Hope you are correct as both areas have many marginals.

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