Post debate polls

YouGov and Angus Reid are both calling the third debate for Cameron. YouGov have figures of Cameron 41%, Brown 25%, Clegg 32%.

Angus Reid’s live figures so far, are showing Cameron the victor of the third debate – Cameron 36%, Brown 22%, Clegg 31%.

UPDATE: ComRes also have Cameron winning but with a narrower margin – Cameron 35%, Clegg 33%, Brown 26%.

Angus Reid are now at Cameron 37%, Clegg 30%, Brown 23% – I’m not sure if that’s their final figures yet. Populus are calling it as a draw between Cameron and Clegg – figures are Cameron 38%, Clegg 38%, Brown 25%.

UPDATE3: ICM’s instant poll is also out now. Another Cameron victory, but this time Gordon Brown is second – figures are Cameron 35%, Brown 29%, Clegg 27%.

Angus Reid have closed their poll – final figures are Cameron 36%, Clegg 30%, Brown 23%

254 Responses to “Post debate polls”

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  1. @Jack Jones
    More popular than the others – yes. Popular, no. He’s between 33-36% in the polls. That isn’t generally considered popular for an opposition leader.

  2. ICM Guardian now

    DC 35 GB 29 NC 27

    Ok, I could accept those ratings

  3. I wonder if some of the swing towards Cameron in these polls came from derision at Clegg and Brown hammering on about him not coming clean about the immigration cap and whether it included EU states when DC had already clearly made his point, tonight and many times before.

    – he has said repeatedly that he wants a cap that puts immigration in tens of thousands not hundreds of thousands – these are scales of numbers that people can identify with if not the 34,679 or some such that they wanted him to answer
    – he has said (not tonight but voters have memories) that the actual limit would be set annually and agreed with business and public services – devolution and involvement not top down control
    – he said that he would introduce transitional controls for immigrants from any *new* EU member states, eg to recognise the 70 million population of Turkey
    – so the cap would in the end address non-EU states and new members of the EU.
    That NC and GB couldn’t get this was scaremongering not to mention a bit thick of them I thought.

  4. @Jack Jones (11.06)

    “Clegg may have done well with the undecideds, but I would hazard a guess that if someone hasn’t made up their mind who to vote for by now then they probably aren’t going to vote.”

    I know several people who are still undecided. Probably almost as many as I know who have made up their minds. IMO the core votes of each party are smaller than has often been stated on this site.

  5. Tim – How do you know young people watch ITV and Chanel 4?

  6. The polls are close to my take on this debate. I thought Brown was terrible on the economics section, but picked up once it moved away from that. Completely the opposite of what was supposed to happen. Cameron was very clever in referring to Brown’s record in office without overdoing it.

    Brown looked resigned to defeat at the end.

  7. Whilst Angus Reid had Cameron winning quite well, it was interesting that the undecided and waverers thought that Clegg won.

    I guess that the views of the commited don’t matter to the leaders and that it is those who have yet to decide that matter most.

    I doubt this is a game changer and that the position is now fairly well confirmed. I still think The Tories will win by a whisker. I expect Labour to be second but maybe not in votes with the Lib Dems being short of 100 seats.

  8. @RAF
    He is less unpopular than the other leaders – so how would that affect his overall standing when compared with NC or GB? You sort of implied it would affect him, whereas I don’t – they are all unpopular to a lesser or greater extent.

  9. I went to a friends for tonights debate who is, and his family is, heavily tory. That said, we came to agreement that Clegg lost on every topic, particularly immigration and economic policy. It was Brown V Cameron, Brown didn’t have a single attack launched against him insofar as we could tell.
    What did surprise us is that Cameron’s failure to defend his inheritance tax policy has had no effect.

  10. David Cameron looked and sounded like a Prime Minister tonight. I know the tribal influences will affect the final vote, but with Labour bumping along on their default line and the LibDems declining gradually, a good performance from Cam was going to swing a key section of non-politically oriented people behind him.
    It was a clean hit, on target, IMO, Lab and LibDem are bogged down, Tories have broken away. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a significant amount of clear blue water appear after tonight.

  11. @Matt

    “Since most posters on here are Labour and Lib supporters, is it any wonder that most people think that DC was rubbish and that Clegg/Brown was the best?”

    I’m a LibDem supporter, and I thought Clegg did terribly. I also thought Cameron was much better (though not fantastic) than in the other debates. I never know what to make of Brown, as he’s mostly quite boring.

    I also listened to all three on radio, and haven’t seen more than snippets of the video, if that’s at all interesting.

  12. Worm is a bit of a joke. When the speaker is highlighting weaknesses in an opponents policy, the worm dips. But is it in response to the speaker, or in response to the opponent’s policy? I’m sure the worm wielder’s are told to respond to the speaker only, but do they?

  13. Robert In France.

    You come across as triumphalist. Might I just remind you the General Election is still a week away.Hopefully the electorate will start looking more closely at the Tories flimsy manifesto and realise that to vote them in would be a disaster for this country.

    -Does everyone still think there will a hung parliament?
    -Or… do you think the debate is a game-changer?

  15. Anthony,
    Like your “Date the Rich” ad, but I think you might be fibbing to your advertisers about the demographics of this site. [smiley thing]

  16. Just thinking a little more in depth about these polls showing GB losing. Don’t forget what else was on the TV tonight and (being a little stereotypical) most of the Labour supporters would be watching that instead of the debate.

    Also, just like FPTP, people may think all leaders did well and no one really won, but they were asked to choose only one leader.

  17. The sample used obviously has a big influence on the result of these debate polls.

    I have reweighted the Angus Reid poll to remove the party bias* and I get the following result:

    DC : GB : NC
    31.8 27.1 30.4

    This compares with their original result of:
    36.9 23 29.5

    I can’t do the same with Comres or Yougov as they haven’t released crosstabs.

    Comres’ poll had a voter intention ratio of 34:24:36 and a debate result of 35:26:33 which suggests a similar pattern.

    YouGov mention that for their sample “The data were weighted to the profile of all those ‘absolutely certain to watch’ the debate from a nationally-representative sample”
    There might be some kind of bias where conservative supporters were more likely to watch the debate.

    *Note that my reweighting makes my adjusted sample less representative of the population and/or debate viewers. It is not designed to be representative but just to remove the party bias in how people viewed the debate.

  18. @Yozza
    Thanks. I agree. Seems that sensible regulars are giving it all a miss. Good idea. Time to turn in! Goodnight.

  19. 4 things…

    Clegg has been best debater at all 3 events.

    Cameron has been exceptionally good at knocking Labour at every opportunity but still has little substance on his own policies.

    Brown digs a hole for himself and his party at every opportunity yet appears to have better idea than the other 2.

    The polls after tonight’s debate make no sense at all.

  20. @Mac
    “Michael Portillo is right. Don’t pay any attention to “The Worm”. Makes voodoo polls looks sensible”.

    Spot on ….too much attention paid to them on Newsnight and the BBC news. Detracts from what people should be judging upon themselves.

  21. It seems all three managed to convince their supporters. Much good that will do them.

  22. @Jack jones

    If you dislike someone it’s quite difficult to rate them in a positive manner.I think the post debate polls simply evidence Brown’s general unpopularity.I thought Brown did well, but I’m a Labour supporter.

  23. Theresa:

    I still think there will be a hung (or balanced) parliament, and this debate won’t change much. If the polls tomorrow and at the weekend are roughly the same as earlier in the week, then there’s nothing left to upset them. (Except of course, a complete black swan of an event.)

    “Hopefully the electorate will start looking more closely at the Tories flimsy manifesto and realise that to vote them in would be a disaster for this country.”

    Thank goodness people have finally stopped posting partisan wishful thinking comments on here.

  25. @TONY E

    BBC’s Worm used different ratings for each person, so you could clearly identify that Cameron’s own rating went down when he attacked Clegg on immigration.

  26. @Arthur,

    “I’m a LibDem supporter, and I thought Clegg did terribly. I also thought Cameron was much better (though not fantastic) than in the other debates. I never know what to make of Brown, as he’s mostly quite boring.”

    Yeah, I agree with your assessment. I think Brown was never going to win any of the debates because giving speeches was never his strong point.

  27. if i could vote i would vote libdem (or green) but it was camarons best debate
    i think he was best overall (clegg came near)
    but it was no gamechanger for cameron
    so it will be very interesting next week

  28. The voter intent question in the ComRes polling does show an interesting result however. Only a 1% improvement for the Conservatives, and taken from Others. Lib Dem and Labour figures holding steady.

    This confirms to me that people were judging who won not on their own opinion, but how they thought ‘people in general’ would think. And there has been a strong tendency to assume that Cameron’s immigration line is the popular one.

  29. Gordon Brown was doing well in his closing speech until the last two or so sentences where he seemed to me to show no confidence in people having confidence in him and finished with that appalling, distracting forced grin.

  30. I suspect GB was mainly trying to shore up his core vote tonight.
    His closing statement did seem odd, but seeing as he must have mentioned child tax credits a dozen times, I suspect private polling has told Labour it is an important issue to many families.

    And he must have also realised the importance of the West Midlands as he mentioned jobs in that area on numerous occasions also.

    Brown was never going to “win” this debate as with the others, but I think he has probably prevented a collapse in the Labour vote.
    It’s probably now up to the Lib Dems to prevent a Tory majority.

  31. Hmm…not sure what to think here.

    Didn’t think Clegg did as well as he could – the occasion and its importance clearly got to him. Being in the middle probably didn’t help.

    Cameron was…Cameron. He did well but I didn’t think he did as spectacularly well as seems to be reported. Maybe its bias – having got interested in politics when he was appointed leader of the Conservatives I still can’t get the ‘hug a hoodie’ message out of my head (especially when contrasted with the ‘no second chances for youths’ message that he runs with now)

    Gordon was very good, much better than the last two times, but none of the polls will awknowledge that (apart from ICM). Didn’t see his closing message, but the awkward smile at the end was probably ill judged for the television audience.

    BTW, wonder whether Cameron effectively lying about the Lib Dem pledge on the Euro will get as much attention as Labour lying about the Conservatives pension plans did at the last election.

  32. AR now closed – 36, 30, 23
    Clegg wins undecided 37, 25, 22

  33. P.Ticks:

    “NC was as bad and weak as he was last week”

    You don’t do objective do you?

  34. Post debate polls are a bit of a joke too. They’ve all become completely partisan. Hard to distinguish the debate polls from the intention polls.

    The only polling data that tells us anything meaningful is the Angus Reid breakdowns for undecided, committed and wavering voters.

  35. I thought all three of them were poor.

    Brown put questions to Clegg and Cameron repeatedly on child tax credits implying poor children would suffer. Neither of them defended it well by repeating they were only going to stop them for children with parents earning over £50,000.

    The immigration debate was a shambles. No one with an open mind would have a clue what was being proposed.

    Brown appeared to be on another planet on employment and benefit issues. Listening to him the only reason young people were not in jobs is because they hadn’t taken them up.

    If this was a job interview you would have readvertised the vacancy.

    The camera work and chairmanship was much better. BBC and Dimbleby much better quality.

    And at the very end Gordon put on his slow rigor mortis smile and frightened our dog.

  36. I am a greek student who watched the debate and I think that Brown won the debate in substance followed closely by Cameron and Clegg.
    I believe that Brown was speaking concretely during the debate, while the other two and especially Cameron were speaking more generally.
    Cameron’s theatrical performance (being more steady and calm than the other two and especially Clegg) could have made the big difference.

  37. Paul my friend, you had your opinion earlier, which I didn’t question ( but I could remind you of ) I had mine. What’s the problem…?
    Please tell me…? Hope you’re well

  38. @ Shuan

    Yes… and now the rest of us are going to have to put up with the Conservative smugness that, until the last two weeks, was in overdrive for the last year

  39. 5 polls now in. A clear and absolutely thumping victory for Cameron. Sky poll of polls has:-

    Cameron – 38%
    Clegg – 32%
    Brown – 26%

    The story of the night is the dire performance of Brown. The third in a row and following close on the heels of Bigotgate. Quite simply, Labour are finished. They are dead and buried.

    Quite interesting the Populus/Times poll. Assuming my maths is correct, 38% + 38% + 25% = 101%. Looks like someone has got their maths wrong or the numbers have been misreported.

  40. @Jack Jones
    In a sense you are clearly right. If he gets a plurality of votes and seats then he is the winner. But is he popular enough to get an outright majority? I’m still unsure. Blair was a popular opposition leader in 1997 (although not with me). Thatcher was popular in 1979. Cameron isn’t as popular. He just isn’t.
    I repeat though that Cameron has run a smart campaign. I admire him for appealing to the centre when many in his party yearn for the centre right. That may be why he isn’t polling 40%. I don’t know. But 35% is not generally seen as popular.

  41. the polls tell us more than the debate.

    IMHO tonight’s order was:

    1. Clegg
    2. Cameron
    3. Mrs Rochester

    without an enormous amount to choose between them.

    But people seem to be making their minds up and are giving Dave the benefit of the doubt, even when the evidence of their own eyes suggests otherwise.

    Gordy may as well pack his bags. And get some rest – he appears absolutely shattered.

  42. No cause for smugness from the Tories. Still several points short of being in majority territory, and we all know that the LibDems are more likely to back Labour if a hung parliament results.

    I still think the smart money is on Cameron being leader of (a very powerful) opposition this time next week.

  43. @Shaun Bennett: there’s no evidence from the polling that the LibDem surge is collapsing. Flatlining, maybe.

    Cameron did well, but only seemed to be appealing to Tory voters, not floaters. Clegg was put on the spot over immigration, but I doubt if people seriously concerned about immigration would be voting LibDem anyway.

    If floaters broke towards Nick Clegg, the LibDem vote may actually go up slightly.

  44. Other than You Gov any other voting intention’s polls been published tonight?

  45. I am expecting the Tory vote to strengthen slightly to 36/37 but poll 38/39 on the night

    The big question is whether the LD/Lab vote will stay the same or flip back.

  46. @everyone

    Looking at these instant-polls is great fun, but let’s not get carried away.

    For one thing the disparity between them is simply too great. I am not convinced that the pollsters, who remember are ALSO dealing with PM debates for the first time, have quite got their methodolgy sussed – the very wide variations would suggest that.

    That said, the polls are good for broad trends – its clear Cameron was reasonably impressive, 10pts clear, except when he was level, clegg slightly less so, except when he was just as impressive, and brown third – except where he was second ;-)

    The interesting polling will be the VI polls over the next few days, to see if the debate moved the needle – I have my suspicion, but suspicions are like A**holes, everyone has one, and they’re always full of sh*t. We’ll wait and see.

  47. @Jamie
    ‘Note that my reweighting makes my adjusted sample less representative of the population and/or debate viewers.”
    Thanks for that. I had seen the YouGov weighting criterion and wondered whether it was applicable to this sort of poll. I am still wondering

  48. @ Michael Reid

    I agree totally. Dimbleby/BBC were the real winners. Showed up Sky’s total hype and GMTV style. Remember the awful Kaye Burley last week…ugh! When David Dimbleby can effortlessly moderate a difficult debate without shouting out names and keep the the whole thing flowing, Alistair Stewart and Adam Boulton, in particular, look like a couple of amateurs.

  49. I see absolutely no reason for the tory vote to strengthen, i think people who are voting tory have generally already decided, there’s little to suggests tories are winning over wavering and new voters.

  50. I don’t know where these post debate polls come from at all. No way was it a clear victory for Cameron. Brown did OK. In fact, I had it down as a clear draw!!!

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