Post debate polls

YouGov and Angus Reid are both calling the third debate for Cameron. YouGov have figures of Cameron 41%, Brown 25%, Clegg 32%.

Angus Reid’s live figures so far, are showing Cameron the victor of the third debate – Cameron 36%, Brown 22%, Clegg 31%.

UPDATE: ComRes also have Cameron winning but with a narrower margin – Cameron 35%, Clegg 33%, Brown 26%.

UPDATE2:
Angus Reid are now at Cameron 37%, Clegg 30%, Brown 23% – I’m not sure if that’s their final figures yet. Populus are calling it as a draw between Cameron and Clegg – figures are Cameron 38%, Clegg 38%, Brown 25%.

UPDATE3: ICM’s instant poll is also out now. Another Cameron victory, but this time Gordon Brown is second – figures are Cameron 35%, Brown 29%, Clegg 27%.

UPDATE4:
Angus Reid have closed their poll – final figures are Cameron 36%, Clegg 30%, Brown 23%


254 Responses to “Post debate polls”

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  1. I think NC and GB came out level at the end, with DC just behind

  2. Completely different from the trackers. Still, I’m not convinced any of it will make much difference to the real votes.

  3. Any ideas when we’ll have viewing figures?

  4. Utter joke these polls. As Nick Robinson said there was hardly anything to put between them and I agree. Cameron winning by that much is an absolute joke. I couldn’t really put anything massive between them.

  5. I have to say me and my partner are hugely surprised by the polls but maybe a clearer picture will emerge over the next 24 hours?

  6. Brown went on the attack quite a lot – and most of the time the lines on the BBC meter thingy went into negative territory.

    I agree that there was too much ground covered again and again in each of the debates. They should scratch that ‘freeform’ time. It doesn’t bring anything new, just the same argument.

    Also, I don’t quite buy that Clegg’s performance was that brilliant the first time – it was mostly that people were surprised to find that there was a third guy out there. That’s where the huge margin of that victory came from.

  7. Since the first debate the clear thing has been that the winner in the eyes of the viewer has split very much on party lines – so the labour supporters on here think GB won etc etc.

    Add to that a little bit of charisma bypass on GB’s part and you get the average of all the 4 polls so far, not far rom the current polls.

    Thought Clegg did very well on the tax issue but the “no bonuses for bankers” did not ring all that true. Cameron scored very well on help for businesses and actually said quite sensible things on schools (mind you I have always been at odds with my party on comprehensives – a clear example of triumph of theory over practice….). Gb scored on inheritance tax.

    I don’t like the way that they go back over the ground of last time like immigration, while ignoring other big issues. That is the fault of the question selection which was only done to allow an oblique reference to Rochdale. Thought Clegg could have scored on the uselessness of MPs in safe seats here as well

  8. I had Cameron the winner on this one. Brown was very poor and much of what he had to say was focused on fear. His closing remarks from a sitting PM were very poor and lacked any vision or evidence of leadership. Clegg just seems lightweight on most key issues and he has over played the old politics card way too much. The big dividing line is clearly the future role of government. DC is less whilst GB is big government. That is pretty much the decision to be made. Nobody really shined, however, DC probably did enough to keep himself in with a chance of
    winning, albeit a slim chance!

  9. The only odd figure is the 41% for Cameron from Yougov.

    Most likely Cam 36 Clegg 32 and Brown 25 is close to within one or two points.

  10. I would be interested in what the unweighted %ages were for comparison.

  11. I should declare an interest here, I am voting Conservative and had decided that before this debate. I thought David Cameron won the debate (trying to be as objective as possible) and my sister (who is a wee bit of a lefty) felt very strongly that Cameron was the clear winner.

  12. Can someone explain this to me and people are now asking it on the two websites(Chanel 4 & ITV)

    How can the ITV and Channel 4 web poll have virtually th same figure 44/42/13 for Brown/Clegg/Cameron when all watching can vote but when the pollster pick their own people to ask Cameron wins by miles?

  13. It’s been really interesting to me as a student in the US to watch the first televised debates in the UK. Take my perspective with a grain of salt, but it looked to me from across the pond like Brown and Cameron put in their best performances yet while Clegg faltered a bit this time around.

    One thing that’s clear to me is that post-debate polls usually reflect who the public likes, and not necessarily who won. In light of this, I think Brown’s strategy was wise – he knows that he’s unpopular and will be punished in the post-debate polls no matter what, so he might as well get some good shots in. His opening statement was quite good – he addressed the gaffe eloquently and got it out of the way quickly. On the other hand, I think his closing should have been a little more conciliatory than it was. His attacks were sharp and focused and probably the right move – I don’t think the perception of negativity will hurt him that much. In the US, everyone says that they don’t like negativity, but it’s clear that it works well, because negative campaigning continues to figure prominently in every major election. Brown played to his strengths on the economy, and since he isn’t the “change” candidate or the flashy, telegenic figure anyway, he was smart to use his time to draw distinctions with the others.

    David Cameron I thought did well this time around – it was much better than his stinker of a first debate performance and an improvement on the last time. I think that it was a good move for him to attack Clegg a bit, as he’s competing directly with him for the mantle of change. Cameron looked into the camera more “naturally” this time – it finally seemed normal and not contrived when he was addressing the audience. I thought his remarks about “13 years of failure” were probably his most effective attacks, as it’s always difficult for the incumbent to defend their records even in decent times. His closing statement was good as well. The only pitfall I saw for Cameron was when he got caught in the pincers of Brown and Clegg on the immigration cap – it’s a common American debate tactic to ask for a “straight ‘yes or no’ answer” and Clegg seemed to catch him on the defensive. Brown piled on, and the whole exchange was a bad one for Cameron – it was the one major blemish on an otherwise respectable performance.

    Nick Clegg sounded polished and he addressed the audience well, but I don’t think he performed as well as he did in the first debate. He took fire from Brown and Cameron on immigration, and when he argued with Cameron at length on one of the questions Brown was able to stand aside and smile while letting off the clever quip about not getting into their “personal grief.” The exchanges took a bit of the shine off Clegg, and it’s probably not good for him to get too deep in the mud because he has the image of the transcendent “change” candidate. His closing statement was easily the best of the three, however, and his telegenic persona is always helpful.

    Ultimately, I think that it was a good night for Cameron and Brown (despite what the polls say) and an OK night for Clegg. Brown’s forte was the economy and he seemed to have a grasp of policy, and Cameron was able to get some shots in on Clegg, who came under more pressure than usual. From a strategic perspective, Gordon Brown might have “won” this debate, as he drew sharp differences and played to his strengths on economy while brushing off the gaffe from before.

    Overall, it was the most entertaining debate of the three, and I await with great interest the results of May 6.

  14. I am giving up on this site – keeps crashing – error messages every time I refresh ????????????

  15. Interesting figure (currently) on Angus Reid is that Clegg won the debate clearly for undecideds and waverers, whilst he was 3rd amongst ‘commited’ voters.

    Maybe the Lib Dem numbers are the softest, but could this have firmed them up for the last week of campaigning?

  16. These polls are an absolute joke.

    I am a Lib Dem voter but I thought Brown edged it tonight. Cameron 3rd.

  17. So – goodnight !

  18. A plague on all their polls. This time next week we should be getting the first of the real ones.

  19. I had David Cameron as the clear winner. He was calm and looked like a Prime Minister for me. I am not surprised by the impartial polls showing him as winning the debate.

  20. @PHILIP
    “The only odd figure is the 41% for Cameron from Yougov.
    Most likely Cam 36 Clegg 32 and Brown 25 is close to within one or two points.”
    I agree Philip – these pollsters are nowhere near as close to the truth as our own personal opinions.

  21. @american observer
    I think your posts are amazingly perceptive, I do hope you will carry on posting!

  22. interesting internals with angus reid
    clegg winning where he had to win (wavering voters, undecided and potential libdem voters)
    most partyloyalist voting for their leader
    the subsamples are rather small but this seems to indicate that libdems should at least stay stabel or even pick up the odd %
    labour won´t increase their vote but the remaining partyloyalists seem to stay loyal (but will they vote at all?)
    camaron made sure (if the instant polls got it right) that the cons will have the biggest voteshare
    so no loser but no clear winner ether (all got what they realistically could hope for)

  23. I think Brown had Cameron on the ropes several times with questions that Cameron simply refused to answer.

    I think you have to be crazy to imagine Cameron won it, especially by such a large margin.

  24. Red Rag….

    The reason ITV and 4 have those results is that their audiences are unrepresentative of the general public (ie much younger audience) where as pollstars deliberately pick a wide ranging audience.

  25. “I am giving up on this site – keeps crashing – error messages every time I refresh ”

    Same experience. Seems the host can’t cope with the traffic peaks. (I recommend Clook.)

  26. Michael Portillo is right. Don’t pay any attention to “The Worm”. Makes voodoo polls looks sensible.

  27. It’s looking very grim for brown. He needs to find about 5% in 6 days. As gabriel byrne said in The Usual Suspects “it can’t be done”. Well it can, but it would be extraordinary.
    Clegg will be diappointed. Trouble is that he isn’t vince. Cameron and brown have experience in finance, clegg does not.
    Cameron isn’t popular. But he’s run the most intelligent campaign. Ultimately, oppositions don’t win elections, incumbants loose them. And cam is proving that that maxim is almost always true.

  28. Very difficult to be objective if you have a party bias.So far none of the post debate polls have reflected my own opinion of the debate but i’m prepared to accept the polls at face value . No point really being here if you have no faith in polls conducted by reputable companies.Although I have to say Cameron looked like a talking satsuma at times, I thought the contrast had broken on my TV.

  29. Clegg may have done well with the undecideds, but I would hazard a guess that if someone hasn’t made up their mind who to vote for by now then they probably aren’t going to vote.

  30. There is, of course, rarely such a thing as a neutral observer.

    People’s response to how they thought each leader did in the debate would have been influenced by their preconceived notions about which is the better leader and the party they are inclined to vote for.

  31. rogerh
    “and looked like a Prime Minister for me”

    If you like them orange.
    *******************************************

    Surely your talking about Blair now?

  32. Canadian observer here!

    My impression is that the polls on “who won the debate?” look suspiciously like the polls on vote intention – so no game changer here – most people think that the person leading the party they were already going to vote for was the winner. The only debate that was a game changer was the first one because so many non LD voters saw Clegg as the big winner.

    One thing to keep in mind in polls of people watching the debates is that the political and demographic makeup of debate watchers does NOT match the makeup of the electorate as a whole. People who watch these debates from the beginning to end are people with the highest level of interest in politics and those people tend to be men, older people and people with higher incomes and higher levels of education – in other words Labour supporters tend to be under-represented in the debate audience – so right away a poll on “who won the debate?” will be skewed agaianst whoever leads the Labour Party because the proportion of Labour supporters watching the debate is a lot lower.

  33. I guess we see/hear what we want to see/hear. I thought Cameron was very stereotyped, and twisting one question round to deliver a prepared diatribe on Clegg’s supposed enthusiasm for the euro, was a particularly desperate ploy.

  34. DC was more calm and handled it better. More statesmanlike….GB was easily second and NC was as bad and weak as last week.

    GB’s closing statement was a DISASTER !!

    Gotta laugh at all the anti DC people on here….

    Think the Tories will have a reasonable majority now..

  35. Very roughly, averaging out those figures Clegg outscored his party by around 6%, Cameron by around 3%. Brown was under by maybe 4%.

    I think those figures get closest to how the debates will have played with the uncommitted voter.

    It’s still possible that Brown’s strategy of “don’t risk the unknown” may still play a big part but, on the night, I thought his closing statement was neither well-composed or delivered.

  36. Cameron much better tonight. Clegg not as fluent as in the first two debates. Brown had easily his best debate of the three but I have a feeling noone’s listening to him anymore. Reminds me of Jim Callaghan in 1979 saying that when there’s a ‘ sea change in politics ‘ there’s absolutely nothing an outgoing government can do about it.

  37. Voting intention after this week’s debate
    Which party would you vote for?

    Conservative
    36%
    Labour
    24%
    Lib Dem
    36%
    Other
    4%

  38. @AW
    IMHO you had no choice but to suspend input for a while.
    How about a separate thread for all the partisan messages from people who will not respect the comments policy of this site?
    Maybe simply call it “Dustibin” ??

  39. Said to my wife right through, no big punches thrown, no big punches taken. A score draw.
    So the polls have just mirrored voting intention ( roughly before eoin picks me up on inaccuracy)
    all parties will big up their leader. Let’s all be honest. No winner, no loser.
    Positive messages ringing better than negative messages seems to be the lesson……

  40. @RAF
    “Cameron isn’t popular.”
    Given that the Tories have been top of almost every poll for the past few months, how can you back up an assertion like that?

  41. Thats the 4th person in about 10 minutes ask the same question on the Chanel 4 site. If Chanel 4 and ITV have the figures very similar, why do the opinion polls who hand pick their voters have it so different. I have even just heard someone on the tele who is a Lib Dem think Brown won it?

  42. clegg and cameron miles ahead of brown

  43. Populus in Times NC 38 DC 38 GB 25

    I watched the debate. I have looked at this poll and the others, and I really didn’t think Brown did that badly.

  44. Well I’m due in court tommorow but according to these polls as long as I wear a nice suit and speak well to the Jury I should get off scott free!

  45. I do wonder if people polled say Cameron won, on the assumption that ‘the general public’ dislike immigration and would agree with him, even when they personally don’t.

    The Worm graphs all had a down-turn for Cameron on immigration, something everyone tends to assume is a naturally good position for the Conservatives.

    I would not be surprised if the voter intent polling moves in a different way to the debate winner polling.

  46. Above figures from comres

    h t t p://www.comres.co.uk/page165453351.aspx

  47. I’d say Brown was the winner if we used the “X Factor” rules and who just seemed the most believable on the night. Clegg second. Cameron last.

    But Brown said we should listen to what’s said first (and my views are more in line with Lib Dems), so I’ll take the win back off him. :-)

  48. Oh, one more thing that I found interesting: it seems like they’ve introduced those vapid, colored debate performance lines in the UK, too. I first remember seeing them here in the US during the 2008 election debates between Obama and McCain and I think they’re one of the most inane, distracting “features” imaginable. They’re a very unwelcome recent development in my opinion, as they take away from the nuances and distinctions of debates and turn them (even more than they already have become) into mere popularity contests.

    I hope they get rid of them here, but unfortunately they’re probably going to stick around.

  49. Since most posters on here are Labour and Lib supporters, is it any wonder that most people think that DC was rubbish and that Clegg/Brown was the best?

    I criticised DC very severely on here after the first debate, but for the record I thought he was excellent tonight – easily the best. The polls reflect this. Clegg looked flustered and sweaty, and not calm and impressive like he did in the first debate, and GB was reasonably good but isn’t a natural orator IMO.

    I expect the Tories to make some gain in the polls over the next few days, but it remains to be seen how much this will amount to, and whether it will be enough for them to get a majority (8-9% would be needed over Labour IMO). The chances of a Labour majority have all but vanished IMO.

  50. @ Cozmo
    The problem is they won’t stay in such a thread.But I agree, the party hacks are tedious to wade through.

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