Post debate polls

YouGov and Angus Reid are both calling the third debate for Cameron. YouGov have figures of Cameron 41%, Brown 25%, Clegg 32%.

Angus Reid’s live figures so far, are showing Cameron the victor of the third debate – Cameron 36%, Brown 22%, Clegg 31%.

UPDATE: ComRes also have Cameron winning but with a narrower margin – Cameron 35%, Clegg 33%, Brown 26%.

UPDATE2:
Angus Reid are now at Cameron 37%, Clegg 30%, Brown 23% – I’m not sure if that’s their final figures yet. Populus are calling it as a draw between Cameron and Clegg – figures are Cameron 38%, Clegg 38%, Brown 25%.

UPDATE3: ICM’s instant poll is also out now. Another Cameron victory, but this time Gordon Brown is second – figures are Cameron 35%, Brown 29%, Clegg 27%.

UPDATE4:
Angus Reid have closed their poll – final figures are Cameron 36%, Clegg 30%, Brown 23%


254 Responses to “Post debate polls”

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  1. Someone tell me what to think!!!

  2. Cameron didn’t do too badly, but outright winner 9% ahead of Clegg and 16% ahead of Brown who had his best outing yet? Colour me doubtful.

  3. I’m amazed by those figures.

  4. Ha Ha. Complete joke from YouGov.

    Bring on the real poll next Thursday.

    I’m guessing it’ll be a lot closer!

    Lol!!!

  5. Cameron definitely outperformed, he looked calm, measured and prime ministerial. Brown was negative, repetitive and didn’t give us reasons to vote for him, especially at the end. Clegg seemed rather flustered, and a lack of policy was seemingly exposed (Cameron has no more, but he spun it better).

  6. ??? Baffling. Clegg was better than last week (he was just boring last week) and Cameron, though not quite as awful as in his first debate, certainly was doing worse than last week. Though Brown did do his best performance tonight.

    Oh well, in the minority. Apparently.

  7. My take

    Fairly even start for all – DC better by a slither, GB worst but built up steam.
    NC after being all over the place, gave best summing up for non-cynics “this time it can be different”.
    From GB summing up, Lab strategy is to appeal to “better the devil you know” theme (probably successfully).
    DC has lost gloss of change candidate by now and from where I am looking is least likely to have picked up votes among undecideds, but by no means a game changer for anyone.

    Greens the winners, naturellement :-)

  8. Mandelson looks seriously upset on the telly

    Bad Al Campbell claiming the Sun have bought the YouGov poll…

    All a bit pathetic.

    Cameron clearly won it. Clegg clearly 2nd. Brown bloody awful again and a deserved 3rd.

  9. From Canada: It appears from what I’ve been reading that Clegg held his own… no bubble-bursting moment, as you folks would say.

  10. Cameron the winner???? – I’ve lost all faith with these polls now!

    IMHO

    1 Clegg
    2 Brown
    3 Cameron

  11. Mandelson looks seriously upset on the telly

    Bad Al Campbell claiming the Sun have bought the YouGov poll…

    All a bit pathetic.

    Cameron clearly won it. Clegg clearly 2nd. Brown bloody awful again and a deserved 3rd.

    It’ll be the same next Thursday.

  12. These polls make sense. Brown thrashed around and was desperately negative. The other two leaders were much more positive. The immigration cap was the only thing shaky for Cameron and he got better after a slightly weak start. Excellent closing statement.

  13. What these polls seem to indicate to me is that people have really made up their minds who they want to win the election already. The numbers seem to bear no relation to the actual performances tonight, in the way that the did for the first debate.

  14. Interesting.

  15. I agree with Tim. Cameron spun that better than the other two and it shows in the polls. He looked more calm and more in control. Clegg was much more flustered than usual. All three had moments where they sparked, but the average performance from Cameron was better for the cameras.

  16. A Poor showing all round really, not much substance, mostly spin.
    I wonder if it will have much impact on the polls?
    Probably like the second debate, not much.

  17. Just got in. Haven’t seen any of the debate yet. Seems like the public’s reaction isn’t what the folks here wanted to hear?

  18. More of a joke than any poll, is dismissing a poll just because you don’t like what it shows….

    I don’t think this will change the game…I think the conservatives will drift up over the week, lib dems will drift down, and the marginals and the lib dems will mean the tories will emerge with around 300 seats.

  19. Not a lot between them, GB’s unpopularity means he rates poorly in the reaction polls.
    Amazing to see Cameron apparently lose the immigration portion after being challenged on caps and EU immigration.

  20. There seemed to be a lot of ground repeated from previous debates – quite tedious at times, when there are so many areas they didn’t cover in any debate – eg overseas aid, transport, agriculture, civil liberties, Greek crisis.

    Next election, surely two debates is enough, and the questions should not re-cover the same ground, unless there has been a major change during the campaign. Dimbleby was as quiet as a lamb. Baa!

  21. Gosh – don’t think these reflect the debate I just saw. i thought GB did well even though I am not a Labour voter.

    Do these polls (YouGov apart) reflect hardening voting intentions to some extent?

  22. IMO this is a fix, it was bad enough to take last time, but this time Brown was a clear winner…I give up.

  23. Cameron blathering about ~values~ in his closing statement *again*. Leave that to the yanks please Dave.

  24. The polls always understate the Tories

  25. Very suprised by these polls. I would suggest that a lot of judgement of these debates is based on existing predjudices/opinions.

  26. Angus Reid has Cameron winning like the rest, but that’s with committed voters. With undecided and wavering, Clegg wins.

  27. Like cricket matches the toss was everything – Clegg would have won from the left hand side in my view.

    I thought Clegg did a lot better than last time, and Cameron has objectively improved. Was surprised that Clegg did not refer to the Lib Dem’s excellent record of anticipating the crisis and generally pushing Brown and Darling all the way in parliament – did not play the Vince card

  28. Wel I shall now decide. I am so sick of LAB /CON war. We ae in the +++t and I have now tonight decided I will vote LIBDEM. I was a floater but Brown looked tired and ill Cameron represented the party that helped lose my business in 1991. THey havent changed.
    Whoever wins there is pain ahead. If we get honesty and cohesive consensus to get us out the +++t so be it. Cutting all welfare benefits(except pensions) by 10 percent would be a start
    Bring it on next Thurs

  29. Totally shocked by this – Dave was completely outclassed and he didn’t answer a single question – like a tory Blair. If the voters of England buy this, they deserve another idiot for a PM but I don’t expect Scotland will be in the union much longer.

  30. I really do not understand these polls. Either they’re wrong, the public are wrong or I see things differently.

    I thought Brown had his best performance by a million miles, and won the debate very easily.

    Clegg was nothing like the Clegg of two weeks ago and was quite forgettable.

    And I thought Cameron was desperately poor – failing to answer questions, failing to justify seemingly unfair policies and resorting to answers that didnt have anything to do with the question.

    Two weeks ago I thought Clegg was the clear winner and the polls agreed with that. Last week I thought it was close between Cameron and Clegg, and the polls seemed to agree with that.

    How come I’m so far out this week?

  31. Cameron – 35%-41%
    Clegg – 31-33%
    Brown – 22-26%

    Comres has Clegg outperforming the libdems latest rating, but the other two spot on their polling.

    AR has the numbers very close to their last voting intention poll. (so far)

    YG are the only ones far away from the voting intentions, with Cameron and Clegg sharing the DKs, Cam taking the lion share.

    Does this point to a difference in methodology?

    Overall the results should give hope to the Tories, confirm the Libdem’s strong position in the campaign and Labour’s weak position.

  32. Cameron has gradually got better over the three debates, but not hugely.

    Brown clearly third, looked tired and finished. He just can’t compete with Clegg and Cameron on equal terms

    Clegg didn’t repeat the brilliance of his first appearance but scored plenty of points, avoided a knockout and edged it for me over Cameron.

    But over the three rounds, Clegg won decisively.

  33. I’ll hazard that the immigration issue was key in these results. Clegg floundered around with the amnesty policy and became decidedly shifty. Brown has Mrs Duffy and past record problems when it comes to immigration. Cameron wasn’t great on the topic either but he doesn’t have these albatrosses round his neck so he came off best despite evading the cap numbers question.

    Terrible results for Brown in all three polls.

  34. Regardless of that cobblers: hung parliament. We all know it.

    Everyone back here in the Autumn?

    ;-)

  35. I don’t think you can say anyone was a clear winner.
    I do think Clegg was very good actually, but they were DIFFERENT which actually surprised me and in fact makes them all winners in their way. I thought they all appealed to their core vote very well but it’s about what undecided’s think and that I couldn’t begin to guess.

    Did Clegg persuade them he’d give them real change?
    Did Brown persuade them this was no time for change?
    Did Cameron persuade them that he could do the job?

    I think the answer to all three is yes which make things very tricky indeed IMO

  36. The YouGov accusations are a little pathetic. A month ago they came from my fellow blues. Now they come from the reds and Alastair Campbell…

    The Sun’s daily polls gave a lot of momentum to Brown a while back. The Sun persisted. And YouGov have not been terribly pro-Tory.

    That is before we remember that Peter Kellner is not terribly pro-Tory and, as AW reminds us, is not in the business of discrediting his company with bad and corrupt polls.

  37. Personally I thought GB was very impressive and I’m shocked by the poll results. DC was the worst in my opinion.

    Channel 4 (albeit a selective poll) has similar numbers to what I thought.

    Brown 44% – Clegg 42% – Cameron 13% – None 1%

  38. Thought you might be interested in my latest blog article:

    “To vote or not to vote”.
    http://allaboutchris.co.uk/blog/2010/my-election-vote/

    My thoughts on being a voter in Nick Clegg’s constituency

    Thanks for reading!
    Chris

  39. Can’t figure this, both Gordon and Clegg far outperformed him IMO. I am a former Tory, now LD, but everytime DC opened his mouth ‘Eaton Old Boy’ was the first thing that popped into my head.

  40. Colin Wobbles – what’s not to understand? Remember the polls aren’t people ranking the leaders, they showed that around a quarter of people watching the debate agreed entirely with you and thought Brown won… it’s just more people took a different view.

  41. I’m just shocked by the polls….

  42. Only one winner tonight…
    David Dimbleby!
    Thought he was well-prepared, thoughtful and fair.

  43. The YouGov site kept failing for me while I was trying to give my response, for what it’s worth. Don’t know why it couldn’t cope with the traffic this time. That sort of thing *should* affect everyone of every political persuasion equally/randomly, of course, but it’s another potential source of error.

    Interesting, they very specifically opened their poll at 10pm rather than 9.55pm following the criticism of overlapping with the closing statements last time.

  44. BTW, The ITV instant poll (properly weighted apparently) scored Cameron narrowly ahead of Clegg with Gordon mid twenties.

    Interestingly, they asked Labour voters if they would change their vote after Rochdale and 20% said yes, 20% undecided. maybe that one is not quite dead yet

  45. Had one eye on Fulham, but Brown was the best in that. Cameron terrible. And I hate Brown.

  46. Can I say the debate was an absolute *stormer* for the BBC. Great set, cool lighting, and Dimbleby (tho’ I can’t stand him – I preferred that ITV guy, Stewart) will be considered the winner.

  47. I’ll say again, I’m astonished the polls say a win for Cameron. He just couldn’t answer the inheritance and corporation tax. I thought DC won the second, so it’s not bias. I just thought Clegg would have got around the 50% mark so dominant was he in the debate.

  48. Interesting poll on ITV suggested that 20% of Labour voters (i.e. those that would definitely have voted for them last week) definitely wont vote Labour next week and 20% undecided after Bigotgate.

    Worst case 40% reduction could see Labour as low as 18-20% on the night.

  49. If you wanted the most change you’d say Clegg won.
    If you wanted Britain to be great again you’d say Cameron won.
    If you didn’t want to risk what you’ve got you’d say Brown won.

    I’d say Dimbleby was seriously poor, why didn’t he challenge any of them – ever?

    I’d also say that DC did lose the immigration question which is quite a surprise.

    Other than that they each had their strengths and no great blunders, fairly even.

    I predict a tightening of the polls and a very close result next week.

  50. Haha. My forecast almost spot with 2 of the 3 polls.
    I still predict 40/30/20 in the election (ConLib/Lab)
    Labour are dead in the water. Can’t wait to see some ‘Portillo’ moments when the results roll in.

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