I am away from a computer tonight, so feel free to use this thread to discuss the YouGov poll later – and possibly the debate polling (depending on if the site copes by itself with the surge of traffic when the debate finishes!)

I take that back – the Sun have already released tonight’s YouGov poll. The topline figures are CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 28%(-3). No obvious effect from the Mrs Duffy affair (much as the “does it make you more or less likely to vote” question suggested for once!). The Lib Dems are down, but I expect that’s just random variation – yesterday’s 31% was a bit higher than YouGov had been showing lately anyway.


325 Responses to “Tonight’s YouGov poll and the debate thread”

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  1. Clegg’s really good at talking about immigration, which is surprising considering that his policies are quite unpopular.

  2. Gordon Brown is really playing it well tonight.

  3. DC is by far the most assured calm and statesmanlike. NC is floundering and getting too excited and doing worse than I thought. GB is doing better than I thought, but as Kinnock says has a radio face.

    DC is winning ..just but as usual NC will probably win

  4. DC & NC squabbling – GB says “I hate to interfere with private grief here”
    Good put down. GB thinking better on his feet.

  5. GB even managed a draw on immigration.

  6. @ Quincel

    *Smacks forehead* That’s the reason why! Boy I feel a bit of prat now…

    I repeat then – typical Cameron getting out of his least favoured position and shoving the man he has to beat in there ;)

  7. GAME CHANGER

    GB on Lib Dem Amenesty and Con EU number limits…brilliant (particulary after Mss Bigot).

    Labour up 4%

  8. NC actually got support for his immigration statement at the end of that question

  9. James, it clearly states that lending is not just down on 2007 figures, but down from lending figures in the middle of the recession.

    And if people are saving and banks are saving, then precisely how will the government spending removed be put into the economy by others?

  10. A little surprisingly I’d say the BBC tracker gave that to Clegg – he mostly got a positive response on the immigration issue. Cameron struggled with the ‘give us a number’ issue and ended up claiming it would be tens of thousands. Gordon got a way with sitting on the side lines and hitting both.

  11. All three in their own way, doing well.

    Nick early on

    DC on statesmanship and question avoidance

    Alas, in the marathon of politics, both are far behind at this stage….

    Precition (factoring in anti-labour bias)

    DC – 26
    NC 32
    GB 33
    DK – da rest…..

  12. Re: immigration. DC says about amnesty giving the wrong impression and gets a + on the worm, GB agrees and gets a -! The audience do seem to have some preconceived opinions Maybe the audience don’t believe that Brown really agrees?

  13. Woah, is Clegg riffing off “Great American debates”? He’s done Reagan (“Well, there you go again”), he’s done Adlai Stevenson (“Straight answer: yes or no?”)…

  14. Clegg playing an absolute blinder. I’d be pretty shocked at any other result. Brown pretty poor as usual. Cameron slick but he’s been hung out to dry by avoiding straight answers.

  15. IMMIGRATION
    -According to audience dialing; GB, DC, and NC received negative or flat reactions re immigration

  16. Any poll that doesnt say GB wins this by a landslide…..then i just dont get it….

  17. @ MARTYN

    ‘Woah, is Clegg riffing off “Great American debates”? He’s done Reagan (”Well, there you go again”), he’s done Adlai Stevenson (”Straight answer: yes or no?”)…’

    and he did a ‘Get Real’ !

  18. I’d guess post debate poll

    Cameron 38%
    Clegg 45%
    Brown 17%

    Totally unfair on Brown but that’s politics for you

  19. Clegg is poor tonight

  20. Brown is winning hands down, I think yesterdays event has given him a spring in his step.

  21. Irish O, yes i agree, but he won’t, he didn’t last time and he won’t this time either,

  22. Theresa get off the dialling…listen to the debate

    Brown…serious passionate claer
    Clegg ..flapping
    Cameron..zzzzzzz

  23. Banks can’t lend SAFELY unless people save, and give the banks some real money to lend out.

  24. Irish and Starchief

    You are joking ?

  25. I’ve been here since before this site was on Yougov and I cant be bothered to watch this; it’s the spin which will matter

  26. Again Brown is doing a good job this time. I’m surprised. Pushing his message quite well. Clegg has picked up a little since that immigration tussle. Cameron playing smooth and looking quite relaxed.

  27. Amazing that GB got out of immigration with at least a draw.
    He is clear winner if objective so far

  28. i think brown is winning over the audience. Early on the red worm on the bbc tracker would dip a few seconds after he was named. It seems to be going up slightly when dimbelby says his name at this stage in the debait.

    Intreguing.

  29. “No life on the dole”

    Unusually perky for Brown.

    While Clegg “believes in work”. Good to hear.

  30. @P MEAN
    I agree on Brown – I had noticed this too.

  31. Sheesh – yes, we know you all think the leader of the party you support is doing best. Take it elsewhere!

    I’m closing comments till the wretching thing is over. Bloody pointless astroturfing.

  32. Dave is definitely the winner tonight.

    (Dimbleby that is….Adam Boulton take note from a true professional)

  33. Polly Ticks

    No joke. Thought DC just about won the last debate but Clegg is so far ahead in this one, it’s like the first debate.

  34. Most people will get this debate via news:

    “Straight answer: yes or no?” will play a lot.

    Disastrous for Cameron, especially given how often he’s asked that of Gordon Brown.

  35. @Ian Kemp

    You’re right, he did! Woah! He’s copying! Quick, any predictions for the next line he, er, “homages”?

  36. Dimbleby is indeed running this very well. Better even than Stewart, he’s controlling it and pointing out when they dodge questions a bit without getting involved.

    Apologies Anthony, you really don’t deserve this from us.

  37. Is it me, or is DC looking very orange tonight??

  38. @Anthony

    a little political passion during a live debate is natural and healthy….relax

  39. I noticed that Clegg is sometimes not really answering the question, unlike in previous debates where he tended to stick better to the question. He also seems to be sweating on the face, doesn’t look good. Cameron doing very well in keeping his message on target, and looking more relaxed than usual. Brown showing some passion. Not as ‘personable’ as Cameron, but I don’t know if that’s a bad thing right now.

  40. I thought Gordon’s performace would be good after yesterday. Thoughts that his career was over must have surely promted him to be less conservative in how he answers and he’s been very direct so far.

    Seems that yesterday might have been a gamechanger, but not in the way people supposed.

    (though I agree that none of the polls would ever say that he’s won it.)

  41. The polls have David Cameron ahead! What the??? Was I watching a different debate to everybody else??

  42. terrible closing speech from GB

    Neither of the others very good either, but his was a stinker

  43. DC has completely not answered GB questions about nursery top up fees.

    Well done GB, you’ve played a blinder…

  44. The worm at the end seemed to have Cameron and Clegg pretty even at the end but Brown’s rating was negative throughout his winding up speech…

  45. Brown was far too negative in his closing speech

  46. Interesting negative approach by Brown at the end of his summing up. Maybe he has privete polling that says he shouldn’t try and do the ‘hpey changey’ stuff. As an incumbant he may be right.

  47. Though GB was doing well, but his quarrelsome closing statement was a wasted opportunity.

  48. I’m really not sure how this will play out. They all had their moments. Nobody was way out ahead, and nobody was really left behind. Hmm…

  49. @Anthony

    Thank you for taking a pause on comments! The partisan commentary here is really aggravating right now…

  50. I thought Clegg won it easily.

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