I am away from a computer tonight, so feel free to use this thread to discuss the YouGov poll later – and possibly the debate polling (depending on if the site copes by itself with the surge of traffic when the debate finishes!)

I take that back – the Sun have already released tonight’s YouGov poll. The topline figures are CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 28%(-3). No obvious effect from the Mrs Duffy affair (much as the “does it make you more or less likely to vote” question suggested for once!). The Lib Dems are down, but I expect that’s just random variation – yesterday’s 31% was a bit higher than YouGov had been showing lately anyway.

325 Responses to “Tonight’s YouGov poll and the debate thread”

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  1. i dont trust those worms … apparently the worms disagree with “creating jobs”

  2. “Except the banks are currently hoarding money too, hence the very low lending rates that are going on.”

    Banks do not hoard. Lending is tight becuase they’re no longer lending such a high multiple of their savings and they’re having to make up for defaulted money/lost investments. If savings in banks does not increase the lending will not increase.

    And all three are missing the point here now. You can’t complain at the banks for causing the crash while at the same time expecting them to lend at 2007 rates, that was what caused the problem in the first place!

  3. I do think Brown is well intentioned, but I don’t think anybody is listening anymore?

  4. An entire question about the ‘decline of manufacturing’. While out manufacturing isn’t quite what it was, we remain the 6th largest manufacturer in the world with larger % of our economy doing manufacturing than France, Japan or the USA.

  5. I’ll punt that the ratings for the three will align even more than last time – Brown will catch up but still be third.

  6. -I am watchiing the debate with the audience dialing in their reactions
    -Audience is responding the most negatively to GB

  7. Gordon and Clegg both scored points on the inheritance tax issue. Cameron coming across as smug.

  8. Next question fron Gillian of Rochdale, where are the Eastern Europeans coming from ?

  9. Clegg is really struggling and stumbling….gets a bot boring with the holier than thou all the time too

    He looks out of his depth……anyone who thinks he’s winning……Hmmm …can’t see it.. Gb doing better than I thought though.

  10. “While out manufacturing isn’t quite what it was, we remain the 6th largest manufacturer in the world”

    Don’t confuse us with facts.

  11. James, jump down to just below the subtitle ‘Falling Lending’

    ht tp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8571999.stm

  12. @ash

    South America…

  13. “Don’t confuse us with facts.”

    Heh, it does amaze me the number of ‘well known facts’ about the UK economy that simply aren’t true.

  14. Polly, nice to see you back

  15. GB…storming this….(neutral Dublin Observer)


  16. Is it me or has DC only attacked GB and left NC alone?!

  17. Cameron doing bad but then I am biased

  18. If NC could reduce the level of exasperated “what I’m saying is so obvious” tone from his voice I think he’d do even better than he already, clearly is.

    I’m a LD voter but find it just a little tiring.

    Captcha = H7GB so clearly, Hung/7th/GB [who remains pm].

  19. NC needs to relax.
    He is letting the pressure get to him

  20. “Clegg..Invisible”

    That may not be too bad on the economy. Or he may be being squeezed out. I’m just saying it’s not impossible that this is intentional and intelligent.


    Can’t agree with you on NC Mr Polly !

  22. Brown will be third however well he does….where are all the bigots flocking from?

  23. @Theresa

    I can’t flip between this site and the BBC site. Can you post occasional updates on audience reaction to GB/NC/DC

  24. Did David Cameron just reapply lip gloss after taking that drink?

  25. ITV (Com Res) worm is very negative for Cameron.

  26. Pam F:

    All together now: “Oh no it’s not”

  27. Immigration !!!

  28. IMMIGRATION is up !

  29. Brown – Heavyweight
    Cameron – Flyweight
    Clegg – amateur

    The Sun tomorrow – Cameron delivers killer blow

  30. I think Cameron has a much better grasp of his brief than the other two. And is promoting a positive message of what they *will* do. Clegg has lost it this time I think. He’s not really discussing the issues being posed. Keeps repeating sound-bity sounding things. Brown same as usual, though a little more sprightly earlier on tackling Cameron on inheritance tax.

  31. This could go horrible for Gordon here

  32. @MARTYN
    -Glad to post audience reaction periodically

  33. Anyone got info from some kind of voodoo constant running poll (not the worm)?

    By the way, does Clegg disagree with anything anyone in the audience says? I think if one of them was to say “These Pakis are scum” he’d start his answer saying “Well you are absolutely right”.

  34. Fairly even still I reckon…..still have NC lagging behind. GB will do well to get out of this one well..

  35. Cameron is licking his lips way too often. Sky news had a body language expert earlier in the day and was saying that both Clegg and Cameron needs to lick their lips less but Cameron is licking alot more.

  36. Early wording gaffe from Cameron – “I will never join the Euro, I will keep the Pound, that is the change we need.” Quite some change sticking with what you already have… Also sounds a bit…smug? Insincere? I dunno, something just isn’t ringing right about him yet.

    Clegg looks nervy, stumbling over his words a bit. He probably knows that this is the big one that he wants to get right. Also I note that he’s in the middle for the second time in a row (the supposed worse position). Surely it was Gordon’s turn – so they were all in the middle once?

    Gordon is passionate, but he’s fending off the whole “13 years and this is what we have?” stuff. Surprised he hasn’t mentioned that the transfer of importance from manufacturing to the city started under the Conservative’s yet.

    Also nobody has mentioned the IFS report yet (Gordon did briefly). Seems a bit odd that Nick wouldn’t have mentioned it seeing as the Lib Dem policies were praised as being the most transparent.

  37. These debates have been good foe election

  38. Both Cam and Cle did well on the BBC tracker thing in immigration. In fact, Clegg only needs to open his mouth to do well. Gordon struggles to get it up though… almost regardless of the topic.

  39. Maybe the incident yesterday has emboldened Brown. He seems much more ‘with it’ today. More relaxed as well.

  40. Clegg..on those who are leaving UK……” We should know who SHOULD be leaving”

    freudian slip….hmmmmm

  41. @Owain

    It’s grossly unfair, but DC is coming across as overmadeup…

    Mind you tho’, conversely, GB looks like a bear who’s had far too little sleep…

  42. Cam went into negative territory when attacking libdem immigration policy.

  43. “Also I note that he’s in the middle for the second time in a row (the supposed worse position). Surely it was Gordon’s turn – so they were all in the middle once?”

    Brown has a glass left eye, so he has been in the same place every time so he can see both of the others.

  44. @theresa

    audience reaction generally terrible for Brown, good for Clegg variable for Cameron

    Cameron getting the amnesty killer issue back in the frame. Clegg has obviously been advised to avoid it..

  45. “Can you post occasional updates on audience reaction to GB/NC/DC”

    Clegg’s rating (on the BBC) goes up every time he speaks regardless of what he says, Brown flatlining and Cameron not much better.

  46. Brown in I agree with David shocker

  47. Have to say NC is out performing them both – Cameron far too slick just grasping at soundbites – Brown does look nackered but is picking up.

  48. “Get real!” says Clegg. Lifting his game a little now he’s under pressure.

  49. “James, jump down to just below the subtitle ‘Falling Lending’

    ht tp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8571999.stm

    BBC says:
    “And the banks certainly have a strong incentive to withhold loans, as they need to recapitalise after heavy losses during the credit crunch”

    That’s pretty much my point. And even once they have recapitalised, I doubt they’re going to start lending at the rates and risks that they were in 2007, not while they still remember the mess it got them into anyway, to claim that they will be forced to is either a really bad a idea or lying for votes.

    Re: immigration. DC says about amnesty giving the wrong impression and gets a + on the worm, GB agrees and gets a -! The audience do seem to have some preconceived opinions.

  50. Clegg: “Get real”

    I don’t know how well it will go down, but all these little soundbites are amusing me greatly.

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