I am away from a computer tonight, so feel free to use this thread to discuss the YouGov poll later – and possibly the debate polling (depending on if the site copes by itself with the surge of traffic when the debate finishes!)

I take that back – the Sun have already released tonight’s YouGov poll. The topline figures are CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 28%(-3). No obvious effect from the Mrs Duffy affair (much as the “does it make you more or less likely to vote” question suggested for once!). The Lib Dems are down, but I expect that’s just random variation – yesterday’s 31% was a bit higher than YouGov had been showing lately anyway.


325 Responses to “Tonight’s YouGov poll and the debate thread”

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  1. @Ken,

    Next time your here, I’ll have you on Ballybunion ;)

  2. Eoin: “Plan B”

    Is that paying for it yourself?

  3. @ rogerh

    while that might (or might not) help get more women into parliament, the evidence of polling in local elections where electors can choose from a slate suggests tha tit would allow bias against BME candidates to come into play (sadly, there really are bigots out there, excluding Mrs Duffy of course…)

  4. Paul C,

    Yes, it is an annual thing.

    I have a plan C…

    It involves the IMP Euro devaluation and junk bonds…. but I feel guilty about that one :)

  5. @Amber, Sue, Eoin et al
    Sorry to spoil the party, but one objects to gambling on moral grounds. I do however think that if you do win, you may be to shocked to collect your winnings!
    Good luck to everyone tonight. Especially Cameron and Brown. If they do not sparkle, after next week we may never see them again. A shame, as overall it has been such a gentlemanly campaign. Clegg will win either way.

  6. @RAF
    It is ironic – must be the first election where both leaders of the main two parties could lose their jobs if the current polls pan out.

  7. Deep breaths everyone…..

  8. @Raf

    Spoken like a true welsh baptist :)

    Good luck to all three candidates!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  9. Any truth in the rumour that Osborne pulled out because he feels that he comes over as a bit weird?

  10. Well, thank goodness there’s a better set this time…:-)

  11. Is the Euro an election issue?

  12. Cameron quick on the Euro, Clegg returning straight off to fairness and ‘old politics’ whacking, Brown dealing with Mrs Duffy to try and get it out of the way early and then playing his standard cards of his record and protecting the recovery.

  13. Opening statement: All pretty strong and stuck to their campaign message.

  14. * Cameron: calmer this time, *stunningly* well made up.
    * Clegg – woah, Tony Blair body language! Plus looking at his notes…
    * Brown: looks absolutely knackered, brought up Duffy in first 30 seconds (clever?)

  15. So far no big negatives, steady as she goes for all of them I think.

  16. The problem for DC on the macroeconomic strategy is that he really, simply is wrong. I wouldn’t expect it from the tories, but there you go.

  17. I think Brown was smart to get past Duffy from the off. He’s going in hard on Cameron too, time will tell if that works. Clegg seems to be being left alone to play his first debate role more than I expected.

    They all look a bit red, dodgy lighting?

  18. Camron and Brown are getting annoyed with each other I think. Brown shaking his head and Cameron licking his lips.

  19. * Brown’s coming across as pretty intense…
    * Cameron’s calmer, but getting more intense when on his fave subject (govt waste)
    * Clegg’s going “Oh, these politicos, tsk tsk”

    Which is better: passionate intensity or calm detachment?

  20. BBCs website shows the debate with the audience dialing their reactions as they debate

  21. Wow, DC finally manages to brush on the fact that it’s not 6bn removed from the economy, still not very explicit about it though, still fairly weak debating.

  22. It is 6bn removed from the economy, it may be that other areas would put some of it back in, but government spending is a major factor of gross domestic product, and if it is reduced by 6bn then that is being removed from the economy.

    Clegg playing his name game again.

  23. @JAMESB
    It is money removed from the economy – debt funded government spending is a stimulus. Has to be paid for later, but while it’s going on it’s a stimulus.

  24. Cameron has stopped calling the NI rise a jobs tax for some reason. GB hasn’t stopped suggesting the Liberals are the third party of the UK though. Grr….

  25. The 6bn isn’t debt funded it’s tax funded.

  26. So far GB is attacking DC on a regular basis but not attacking NC very much ?

  27. Even if it is it is still removed from the economy, because people don’t spend all of the money that isn’t taxed. In fact during and after recessions they save quite a large proportion of it. Savings rates are at their highest figure for something like 15 years, that is money being removed from the economy.

    Did Clegg just say “here they go again”?

  28. Clegg getting squeezed, Brown really going for it, Cameron seeming a bit passionatless? Obv personal opinion.

  29. DC calliing GB and LAB “desperate” is getting old

  30. Not when “1 in 4 pounds of government spending is borrowed”. It’s more a question of timing than anything – DC wants to cut now, GB wants to cut later. DC links this to rolling back some of the planned NI increase, which is fine, but that’s the only link. Regardless of their other policies, the gamble now should be to nourish the recovery and start on the deficit a little later.

  31. NC nervy & speaking much too quickly, tripping over his words. GB is clear what his ‘attack’ themes are.

  32. gordon brown seems to be doing ok ?

  33. Heh, I wondered the same thing that Mr Dimbleby just asked.

    Brown completely dodges the question. Interesting…

  34. DD just asked GB, in a roundabout way, why he is not attacking NC !!

  35. Clegg doing best on the BBC’s tracker.

  36. Brown doing well, but then i thought so last time, they’ll still vote him down in polls

  37. “Savings rates are at their highest figure for something like 15 years, that is money being removed from the economy.”

    Saving is not money removed. Savings go into banks etc. which reinvest them.

    Stuffing money under your matress is removing it, few people do that these days.

  38. Ian, yes he did..

  39. Except the banks are currently hoarding money too, hence the very low lending rates that are going on.

    Also, as stated before, since 25% of government spending next year will be borrowed, not borrowing it and spending it most definitely is money removed from the economy.

  40. Quincel

    You said “…Did Clegg just say “here they go again”?…”

    Reagan?

  41. As a Lib I would so far rate them: GB, NC, DC

  42. NC answer on bank bonuses was dreadfu;

  43. If GB keeps up this passion…its Labour 38% or 20%…….depends on reaction to the intensity…

    personally…..i think the attack on inheritance tax is effective

  44. “Reagan?”

    Precisely, I just never thought I see him try such a clear…homage?

    I like Cameron’s “Labour has raised taxes something like 178 times”, as if he wasn’t sure of the precise figure, and then pulls out the exact number!

  45. Oh dear – my world has collapsed – our Andy has been defeated again ! (probably not relevant to this site !)

  46. Well, not sure who’d doing best but, to a neutral viewer, I’d say Cameron is very definitely doing worst.

  47. I think Brown has said “same old Conservative Party” about 4 times already, christ…

  48. Brilliant answer by Cameron on the banks.

    ‘we have stuffed them full of money and they still arn’t lending’. exactly!!!

    rich

  49. @Quincel

    Yep: problem is, it’s only us who gets the steal…er, homage…:-)

  50. “BBCs website shows the debate with the audience dialing their reactions as they debate”

    Striking how Gordon really struggles to shift his line upwards, whist Clegg’s line climbs even when he’s stumbling over an answer.

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