I am away from a computer tonight, so feel free to use this thread to discuss the YouGov poll later – and possibly the debate polling (depending on if the site copes by itself with the surge of traffic when the debate finishes!)

I take that back – the Sun have already released tonight’s YouGov poll. The topline figures are CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 28%(-3). No obvious effect from the Mrs Duffy affair (much as the “does it make you more or less likely to vote” question suggested for once!). The Lib Dems are down, but I expect that’s just random variation – yesterday’s 31% was a bit higher than YouGov had been showing lately anyway.


325 Responses to “Tonight’s YouGov poll and the debate thread”

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  1. @Eoin,

    I only know betfair as I have an account. 38-1!

    I imagine Ladbrokes is much less generous as they don’t match bets to other humans, and they need to make a profit. Probably 25-1 max if I had to guess!

    No chance of a Labour majority in my view now. More chance of an alien landing in Pudsey.

    rich

  2. @Richard O

    “More chance of an alien landing in Pudsey”

    That would be a Children In Need to remember!

  3. Where are all the ladies??????

    Yvette Cooper on Ch4 at the moment doing rather well, made me think…..
    Why is Ed Balls more prominent than her?
    Harriet Harman is deputy PM – Where is she?
    Theresa May? Credit where it’s due, she’s about a bit
    Libs? Sorry, do they have any women in the team?

    We’ve talked a lot about disillusioned voters, but surely this is part of it?
    A good, likeable woman talking about families and women’s issues would ve a vote winner but what do we get? Sarah and Samantha’s handbags and a nod to Mumsnet.

    If we get reform of parliament can we PLEASE start to treat this issue seriously rather than just paying lip service to it?

  4. I think the big news story of the day is this one: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10091952.stm

    Governor of the Bank of England is alleged to have said a couple of months ago that whichever party wins the election will be out of power for a generation.

    I suspect the Tories and Labour would both be happy with a result that left them with 250 seats but out of power. Labour especially – they could replace Brown and fight the inevitable election in late 2010/2011 with a fresh face.

  5. And before anyone says it, I don’t include Maggie, she was only a woman anatomically.

  6. @ SUE

    IF the Labour leadership is changing, I hope Yvette Cooper stands for leader. As things stand, she would get my vote.

  7. @Sue Marsh

    “And before anyone says it, I don’t include Maggie, she was only a woman anatomically.”

    Some would disagree even with that.

  8. Eoin.
    Thanks for your reply.

    I read that postal voters will account for 21% of the electorate this time, and that ‘turnout’ of postal voters is usually around 80%.
    So I would estimate that equates to around 7.2 million votes, or around 25% of the final turnout.
    Could have a big effect, especially as they are voting around now.

  9. @ PAM F

    My friend still thinks Labour will close to 2 points shy of the Tories.

    I await the rumoured COMRES with more than usual interest.

    Meantime, my crystal ball says Labour are 4 points shy of the Tories – but it has being saying that consistently for months :-)

  10. Amber – me too – I spoke with her for 10 minutes at conference about hidden disabilities and she was thoughtful, interested and genuine.

  11. @Andrew Holden

    Apparently the pollsters change their questions to pick up postal voters – so polls will reflect votes already cast.

  12. Sorry but this Duffy stuff is preposterous.

    Unpleasant though it was.

    I stated categorically at the time of the incident on here that it would not actually change anyone’s vote (I will correct this slightly and say that it will affect less than 0.1% which is in electoral terms no effect).

    Few polled admit to it changing their vote.

    Those that do, when further questioned would not have boted that way anyway.

    There is not a shred of polling evidence that it has changed anyone.

    If you put your mind to it, honestly, would such a thing CHANGE your vote, if you say yes I am inclined not to believe you.

    Would such a thing reinforce your voting intention, quite possibly, but that changes no one.

    Surprise, surprise the latest polls bear this out with absolutely no effect.

    The same was true with Clegg’s so called expenses or Cameron’s debate/argument with the father of the disabled boy.

    The self obsessed here need to realise that such things bring colour but do not convince anyone to actually change their vote (well less than 0.1% anyway).

  13. I agree with Sue Marsh re Yvette Cooper. She can look a bit miserable but she’s a good speaker and does come across as authentic. She’s having a good election. I just wish her leader was.

  14. @Sue………………..Believe me, Maggie was, ‘all’ woman. it’s a pity that there aren’t more like her. :-)

  15. @Sue/Amber……………..Yvette Cooper and Ed Balls were flipping houses at tax payer’s expense and making money hand over fist, lovely people.

  16. Ken
    I’ll take your word for it sir.
    If she had not had those ghastly elocution lessons she miight have appealed more. I hardly ever saw her or heard her, marooned comfortably in the northern polders for 15 years (thank goodness), withn the wind whistling through the reeds and the sails of the magnificent thatched windmills (sigh).

  17. @ KEN

    I guess you are not a Labour Party member & won’t be voting in the next leadership election – whenever that may be ;-)

  18. Amber – My bet is on!! You, me, Al – J, Eoin and your mate with the crystal ball had better be right.
    The woman in the bookies had a copy of the Sun. bet she thought it was the easiest cash they ever made.

  19. Sorry, and Howard :)

  20. The bet is on. Ladbrokes were a bit miserable on the odds, 20-1. :(

    Now all that is left is for the sun to shine and Gordy to defend 13 years of Nuu Labour’s economic record.

    Tis da economy stoopid

  21. @Amber……….If you promise to sit next to me, I’ll join, and if you stand, I’ll vote for you. :-)

    @Howard………. :-)

  22. @AMBER STAR
    you posted

    I await the rumoured COMRES with more than usual interest.

    -What rumors are going around about ComRes?

  23. Re Yvette Cooper
    She was on News 24 earlier and I was thinking why is no-one mentioning her as poss leader of the future. Her tone and manner were very refreshing and she got her message across effectively

  24. @eoin

    your optimism is admirable

    perhaps you could give some blood and arrange for a transfusion for Gordy (as long as it doesn’t result in THAT smile)

  25. @Re Comres – there was a single tweet. However, now I think of it, I don’t think Comres is due to release a poll today (other than the debate reaction poll)

    So it’s probably a bogus rumour.

  26. ComRes probably do not have a poll. Sorry Amber.

    It matters not

    13 budgets to defend in 90 minutes against David Cameron and Nick Clegg.

    If Gordon Brown does not excel: he does not deserve to be PM.

  27. Clegg to be in the middle.

  28. If Labour win a majority, it will pay for my two weeks in Italy

  29. I think we forget how little difference debates can make. The Clegg bounce was unusual – a bit like Diana-mania. There will be lots of pretentious analysis, in the future.

    The last one made no difference. Do the US debates change things so much? Or do historians simply need something to make a neat narrative?

    Given his helping hand from dead Chicagans, how much is even Kennedy v Nixon an example? And didn’t Reagan beat Carter because Carter was kind of a little hapless? And did Obama get any real boost against McCain – if he did, it would suggest that the election would have been level pegging without the debates, which hardly accords with the path of the polls, which had him ahead apart from a brief Palin-bounce before people realised that she was a little nuts.

  30. On twitter

    George Osborne has pulled out of tonight’s Question Time

  31. I would think that Gordon will give the briefest of mentions to yesterday’s events.

    Maybe his opening statement will begin…

    ‘I agree with many people that I am not perfect.
    Indeed, I have done, and said, things that I regret.
    And it is also true that the Labour govt. has not been perfect either.
    But…….’

  32. great suggestion by Jon Sopel

    “The BBC’s Jon Sopel tweets: Bold play by Gordon Brown would be to revert to first debate tactics and open with ‘I met a woman in Rochdale yesterday…’

    :-)

  33. Sue:

    Absolutely agree re the marked absence of women in all parties – major or minor.

    From the evidence one would assume that Shirley Williams was the only woman in the entire Lib Dems party.

    It’s very strange and it’s very hard to uinderstand why not a single party seems aware of it, and not one question from the public, to all the male politicians has, so far, brought it up.

  34. Oh no! I’ve heard Blair’s being wheeled out tomorrow…does anyone know if it’s true?
    Not a good idea I think.

  35. @Éoin…………….If the other two do their jobs, he doesn’t deserve to be Prime Minister.

  36. @Paul C/ Sue

    I could not agree more…

    Sweden puts us to shame…

    Ther are a higher % of women in the Zimbabwaen, Cuban and North Korean assemblies that the UK chambers…

  37. @Pankot

    “Re Comres – there was a single tweet. However, now I think of it, I don’t think Comres is due to release a poll today”

    Last week they only did Monday – Wednesday + Saturday. I wouldn’t be surprised if there wasn’t one today.

  38. @Nick Ok

    Yes, TB will be on the stump for 3 of the last 5 days of campaigning.

  39. For whatever reasons, there’s a much smaller population overall of politicians.

    If you assume the distribution of political talent is identical, it’s not that surprising that not many of the top handful of people are female.

    Overpromoting second-rate people because they happen to be female doesn’t help anybody (and all the women mentioned in earlier comments are a bit rubbish, sorry)

  40. I think that’s right – no Comres at this point in the week.

  41. @EOIN CLARKE
    -Better not plan on an automatic LAB majority to pay for your trip to Italy
    -It looks like a hung parliament to me.

  42. @Ken,

    Feeling groovy? Hmm…… DC was clasping Sam’s hand with an increased ferocity. Good lcuk to him he does look nervous :)

  43. @Theresa,

    Fear not, I have a plan B

  44. I feel a Leon from X factor moment coming on……

    Where is Rhydian?

  45. Eoin Clarke
    The bet is on. Ladbrokes were a bit miserable on the odds, 20-1.

    Now all that is left is for the sun to shine and Gordy to defend 13 years of Nuu Labour’s economic record.

    Tis da economy stoopid
    ***********************************************
    you should have used betfair and got 40-1.

    can’t see it at all, but I admire your optimism.

  46. @ KEN – Thank you :-)

  47. Bright as a button (YC)

    (I’m still thinking GB for the foreseeable future)
    My wish is that he be allowed to do what he does best (govern) and that the rest show more support. He does have an unparralled record of service to the people of these lands, and deserves more credit. IMHO

  48. @Éoin……………..Camping in Donegal it is, for you then, mind you, I stayed in Killybegs on an Easter break once, totally pi++ed for four days, brilliant. :-)

  49. “Absolutely agree re the marked absence of women in all parties – major or minor.”

    FPTP doesn’t help. One of the systems where voters get to pick from a selection of candidates from the same party would improve things and loosen the party’s grip on choice of candidates. It’ll be interesting to see if the Tory candidates chosen in open primaries outperform the conventional ones.

  50. RE: Osborne pulling out of Question Time

    Any reason given?

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