TNS BMRB – 34/27/30

There is a new(ish) TNS BMRB poll out this morning. The topline figures are CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(-2), LDEM 30%(nc). The fieldwork was conducted between the 21st and 27th April. TNS do traditional face-to-face fieldwork in people’s homes, so almost by definition it takes far longer to do. As the speed and quantity of polls in this election keep rising though, it does render polls like this slightly behind the times. I’ve also got dates for that Harris poll yesterday, it was conducted between the 20th and 26th, so once again, quite elderly fieldwork.


302 Responses to “TNS BMRB – 34/27/30”

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  1. Trevorsden – just because being genuine and pleasant wins votes, it does not follow that being the opposite of those things loses them.

    It’s a bit more complicated than that.

    The “might change mind” option is to me a bit of a chance to cover oneself. It’s what I’d say if I were a shy blue or a shy red

  2. Yozza,

    Hm, Tweeting at 4.03 about a poll that completes its fieldwork at 4pm? We shall see!

  3. @Howard
    “Still the PR/Harold and Maude/Heineken election

    Is this an in-remark of ecologists? don’t get it.”

    Thanks for asking – not as far as I know.
    I have previously dubbed the election with the first 2 and have added Heineken now. PR – people’s revenge, “Harold and Maude” 1970s film representing alliance of ageing hippies and spoilt middle class young people.

    The famous Heineken slogan of “Refreshes the parts other beers cannot reach” I am applying to assorted pagans, new agers and other out-opters who would not previously have done anything as worldly as vote but this time will.

  4. On Tee – Shirts
    any truth in the rumour that if lab lose GB will be releasing a range called ‘I BLAME SUE’ after yesterdays outburst ?

  5. Will Straw (now there is a Saxon surname if I ever heard one) son of Jack is tweeting a Brown bounce..

    +4% (YG)

    We will now soon enough, YG will want this poll out of the way early since they have a busy night ahead of them…. :)

  6. @JackJackson
    “Here is a link for debt/GDP ratio worldwide (2009)”


    A caution – can’t remember where, but I recently read something on the web that questioned the CIA calculations.

  7. Is there a latest list of those constitencies confirmed to start counting on friday or indeed still open?

    I digress.

  8. Eoin

    It’s not Will that tweeted that, it was tweeted to him by davessidekick – a spoof Goerge Osborne twitter page.

    The Brown bounce comes from the Labour Party, I’ll wait til the official result is announced in a couple of hours

  9. CHRIS D

    I gather YouGov are polling up to 5pm so clearly a mistake or false rumour from Labour

  10. @Andrew McCaig

    “Tweeting at 4.03 about a poll that completes its fieldwork at 4pm?”

    Its all computerised and they’re pretty quick things. Polls close at 4:00:00. Data assimilated by 4:00:15, crunched through the opinion model 4:00:30, sent through the weighting model 4:00:45, squirted into tables and sent to human eyes for checking by 4:01:00. 2 minutes later, someone has tweeted.

    Nah, I don’t believe it either.

  11. Labour tweeted this BEFORE 4pm.. it’s clearly a mistake!

  12. @All

    Thanks for everyone that checked the Sun’s webpage. Strange how that bad link was just for that page

    Also, where were the underlying polling that was mentioned on another site about yesterday’s Sun poll, about how people weren’t bothered about a hung parliament and wanted PR? Seems more Sun censorship because they are for the Tories that don’t want a hung parliament or PR!!

  13. European economist at Schroders on BBC: UK “seen as a safe haven” in midst of Euro crisis

  14. You say the TNS poll is out of date.. and it kinda but it must be remembered that people are voting NOW and for the past few days.. so even out of date ones may have some relevance.

    Soo say there is a collapse in a party’s vote between now and next week.. it may not show as much come may 6th as quite a few people are voting now.

  15. No Cliff because it was all #nickclegg’sfault

  16. After the election, all the cabinet members of Brown’s incoming coalition govt should sport T-shirts saying “Meet the Flockers”.

  17. Cliff,

    I’m sure you are referring to Sue Nye and not our own lovely Sue Marsh. If not I’m afraid I’m going to have to ask you to step outside…

  18. @Sue,

    If Gb loses, I will have a T-shirt printed “May 6th was a rouge/voodoo poll”

    Heavan forbid it might be a rogue.

  19. YouGov poll to around 4pm…. but alas we can’t process the figures in 3 minutes flat :)

    So no, the figures are nonsense.

  20. Woodsman – That is very funny indeed. Oh how I’d love to see Baby Murdoch’s face if it happened.

    Mitz, you’re a gentleman , I thought he meant me at first too :)

  21. Rest assured it was Mz Nye I refer to.

  22. From the FT:

    “The UK also sold £4.5bn worth of three-year bonds, with the deal more than twice covered and at an average yield of 1.797 per cent, much lower than existing three-year debt.

    John Wraith, fixed income strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch, said: “The UK bond market is helped by safe-haven flows, which are supporting the best rated markets, Germany in particular.”

    However, UK analysts warned that there was still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the UK bond market because of the general election campaign and rising expectations of a hung parliament and the high public debt burden.”

  23. @Anthony

    YouGov poll to around 4pm…. but alas we can’t process the figures in 3 minutes flat

    _____________________________________

    Tsk tsk Anthony, and i thought you guys where professionals ;)

  24. Anthony,,,,,

    Hmmm…. If it aint a Brown bounce is it a Brown belly flop? :)

  25. trust me Greengrass not misinformation.

  26. Anthony,

    Can we expect YouGov numbers a little earlier than normal nevertheless so that they will be out of the way pre-debate?

  27. The BBC site has had those figures for YouGOV for 29th April for most of the afternoon, which may be where the rumour has come from, although where the BBC got them from I don’t know?

  28. Anthony,

    Are Yougov going for the usual 8 pm tonight or trying to get the results out before the debate?

    thanks

    Andrew

  29. I think all Anthony meant was that the tweet is just made up – not to imply that its figures are far from the real ones.

  30. I’ve got a brilliant T-shirt slogan, but alas, Anthony is watching and I’d best not stretch his sense of humour any more than I did earlier.
    Shame, it’s very funny indeed.

  31. This week’s issue of New Scientist has a feature on the inherent mathematical unfairness of all possible voting systems. In a small panel at the end of the article is the following intriguing little announcement…..

    “Psychologists Robert Jenkins and Tony McCarthy from the university of Glasgow, and Richard Wiseman of the university of Hertfordshire, have run a subliminal online experiment with New Scientist to predict the outcome of the UK general election next week. And the result is:

    Conservatives 290
    Labour 247
    Lib Dems 70

    Were they right? They explain their method – and its success or failure – in the May 15 Issue.”

  32. Just whisper it, Sue. I’m sure teacher is busy marking homework and won’t notice…

  33. GG
    Thanks for your explanations – they were needed especially about films. I just watch the repeats on TV and not very often at that after 4WAAF about which I must be the sole person in the world who thought it was an anagram of ‘carp’..

  34. On tonights debate I think that maybe a lot of non poltical anoraks are going to hear for the first time about GB selling the gold at a really low price and the pension pot tax in a format they can understand.

    I don’t think GB ‘s debating style of listing big numberrs in list form will help him either,
    so although its labelled as his strong point I think he will still poll 3rd

    NC will point out that with him we would get ST VINCE of Cable ‘the man who knows’ to run the economy

    DC will go on about job tax etc

    Also the last 45 minutes is on general political issues so immigration will be raised again after yesterday

    my prediction NC 36 DC34 GB 30

  35. Last two weeks the yougov poll was revealed at about 6ish if I recall.

  36. Tonight’s YouGov prediction

    Blue 35
    Red 28
    Yellow 28

  37. Latest betfair odds.

    Labour to win majority 38-1. (lengthened heavily)
    Labour to win most seats 7.2-1 (lengthened heavily)

    Obviously we have another week, but the bigot comment yesterday has moved the markets even further out.

  38. @JackJackson
    “trust me Greengrass not misinformation”

    Wasn’t suggesting it was.
    From memory – and don’t hold me to it cos not sure – the comment in the US context was that they excluded debt such as Fanny Mae etc., so I think questionable – rather than incorrect- is a fair characterisation.

  39. Is it just coincidence that the newly-tweeted YG poll numbers are only yesterday’s with the Labour and LD scores reversed? Did someone forget their glasses at Labour HQ?

  40. Colly wobbles – for the ITV debate, the Sun published the Thursday poll at the normal 8pm, since I think the debate started at 9pm. For the Sky debate it started earlier, and the Sun published the results a bit earlier.

    I genuinely have no idea what time they are putting them out tonight (not least because I don’t know when the debate starts – I’m out so I’ll not be watching it!)

  41. Richard O – DAMN Ladbrokes, the crooks!!!

  42. @Sue,

    I sort of avoiding commenting yesterday as I thought it might be a bit cruel!

    It made me think of you when he was blaming Sue though!!

    rich

  43. The ITV debate started at 8:30, the same schedule that Auntie has for tonight, so if the Sun published at 8:00 two weeks ago I suppose that means we should expect the same tonight.

  44. AW ‘I’m out so I’ll not be watching it!’

    And I will be watching the football and Mrs Duffy will be watching Coronation St.

    Good job we’ll have all these non partisan spinners on here to inform us.

  45. @Howard,

    Skip the soccer: these debates are the highest standard of political debate I have witnessed from three politicians.

    Better than 22 boys kicking a ball round a pitch. ;) Now Ricky Hatton throwing a hook, that would be a different matter. Or Brian O’Driscol lifting the Web Ellis. Or Aiden McGeady scoring a Euro Champions League winner… not fulham….. nah definitely not..

  46. Is anyone else have serious problem with this website today whenever the Orange banner adverts are on display? Causes the scroll bar on my browser to stick, text to not display and even the whole page to freeze for annoyingly long periods. None of the other ads are causing the same problems.

  47. Mitz – are you using IE? I’ve had it crash out on me a couple of times today (though can’t remember if I had an Orange ad at the time!)

  48. Howard,

    I’ll be wishing both Fulham and Liverpool well this evening, but I’m afraid Beeb One will get my vote.

  49. Intriguing article on tonights Economist:

    http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16018323

    Suggests they trust Harris’ methodology (which I usually discount, I must admit, given they poll over a much longer period).

    Also suggests there’s a lot of stay-at-home Reds (certain-to-vote figures of C33 LD30 L23 Oth14) but predictably Yellow vote is extremely soft.

    All reads as an “All to play for”.

  50. @ MITZ

    RE: Orange/ Black advert

    I was going to have a whine about this yesterday too.
    My screen freezes or when scrolling down, goes completely black.

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