TNS BMRB – 34/27/30

There is a new(ish) TNS BMRB poll out this morning. The topline figures are CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(-2), LDEM 30%(nc). The fieldwork was conducted between the 21st and 27th April. TNS do traditional face-to-face fieldwork in people’s homes, so almost by definition it takes far longer to do. As the speed and quantity of polls in this election keep rising though, it does render polls like this slightly behind the times. I’ve also got dates for that Harris poll yesterday, it was conducted between the 20th and 26th, so once again, quite elderly fieldwork.


302 Responses to “TNS BMRB – 34/27/30”

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  1. You have to get into Archives by one route in YouGov. The other does not take you where you wish. Presumably it was the same with the Sun web site.

  2. Xiby,

    Thanks for the analysis.

    I have just collected my son from school. He wants to know why GB had to apoligise. Hmmm……… this is going to take some explanation- he might not beleive in santa after this one.

  3. Xiby,

    Thanks – maybe it is all going to be a storm in a teacup. I guess we shall see this evening.

    Amazing how quickly this poll was buried in the archive! Not what the Sun wanted I guess…

    Andrew

  4. I presume YG will just add last night’s 500 to today’s and make their sample. Has the advantage of mixing immediate reaction to delayed. Expect views to harden by some and be forgotten by others.

  5. Colin,

    Look what happened in Scotland – 3 different systems in three different elections at present! The Scottish parliament website actually explains it all very clearly.

    Diferent systems for different houses does make some sense – STV actually would put MPs most closely in touch with the electorate (contrary to all the people who think the constituency link was most vital), but it can also promote nimbyism and so there is an argument for having a house which while proportional is not quite so beholden to local voters

  6. Does someone know when the next YouGov poll will be published ?

  7. I switched to Con/Lib coalition as that is where it is heading (logic)

    Cameron would rather be seen as a statesman and head a strong centre coalition than go through all the risks and problems of minority government.

    Clegg wants to replace Labour as the party of the centre/left.

    They will do a deal

  8. JOE5
    Normally 2000

  9. Some interesting thoughts here on PR.

    In NZ (where I am from) we ditched FPTP back in 92 and adopted the German Style MMP. We have either had coalition and minority governments (which has seem to become the preferred option) with minor parties supporting on supply and confidence. At a local level there is still a mixture of systems, some FPTP, others STV, which is a gaining ground.

    We wholly rejected Australian style AV (Or Preferential Voting as we called it) as it does not lead to a PR vote – far from it. Minor parties such as Greens get squezzed out so it is in my opinion only fair if you have a large third party. No wonder the Liberals like it so much.

    I don’t see why you can’t have different systems at different levels. STV at local and European as these are multi-member elections.

    But why is there no clamour for a MMP style system. Sure you have closed lists (open lists are just too messy!) and you can’t have a “portillo moment” but a party that doesn’t renew its list will get punished. Also you retain a local MP but the vote is wholly decided on the party vote. It’s easy enough to put in place safeguards (NZ has a 5% threshold or at least 1 constituency MP – although this is being reviewed) to stop small (read ultra left/right, christian, animal parties etc) parties gaining a representative foothold.

    My guess is that the Ldems would be the first party to split apart as two main groupings on the left and right emerge. hence their love of AV!

  10. …er… I mean does anyone know …

  11. There are 3 interesting questions in YouGov’s 27th April poll.

    1. Concerned th Gov’s measure in tackling the recession:
    – 27% say measures are working up from 19%
    – with no difference 23% say they will make no change
    – 13% say they will make things worse down from 17%

    2. Preferred Gov
    -29% want Con majority down from 30%
    -21% want Lab majority up from 19%
    -17% want Lab-Lib coalition up from 16%
    -with no change 10% want Con-Lib coalition

    Therefor no Tory in Gov is at 38% up by 3%, whilst Tory in Gov is at 39% down by 1%

    Most telling however is the following

    3. How would you feel about a Con Gov?
    -24% delighted down from 25%
    -46% dismayed up from 38%
    -22% wouldn’t mind down from 25%

    I think no matter what the outcome we are going to have one unhappy nation after the 6th of May.

  12. The YouGov ‘bigot’ impact survey reports that 7% of Lib Dem voters answered “No difference – I would vote Labour anyway”!

  13. Those LibDem supporting hard Labour voters must be tacticians in Lib/Con marginals – only explanation I can think of anyway.

  14. @ EOIN

    Hmmm……… this is going to take some explanation- he might not beleive in santa after this one.
    _________________________________________

    no anything but that. Tell him he has been a bad boy and was afraid that Santa would give him coal as a present next Christmas.

  15. An amusing little object lesson for those conservatives on here who have been clinging to the hope that all the other mrs duffy’s out there will identify themselves in her and turn on labour in the manner of some Borg Collective.

    Flicking between tv stations this lunchtime, there was a young asian woman doing the interviewing on a financial programme. My own 82 year old, northern, urban, working class, labour voting mother – the quintessential Mrs Duffy of the fevered tory imagination – commented, in the most innocent Duffyesque way “There are an awful lot of these asian women on these programmes..you see an awful lot of them getting these jobs”….She hasn’t quite got the pc thing.

    Jokingly I told her “you’re a bigoted woman”. Not getting the reference she blustered defensively….as any Duffy might..that she wasn’t saying it like that, she was just saying, she…

    On the 3rd attempt I managed to explain to her it was joke in reference to what Gordon Brown had said to that woman.

    She bristled with disgust at the thought “Oh her! He was right..she IS a bigot!”

    The point, if it needs further comment, is that even someone who fits every possible social and political demographic as poor Mrs D, and who has just made a seemingly illiberal observation about the growing excess of ethnic minorities did not recognise herself in the woman on the tv, much less feel outraged and politically swayed on her behalf.

  16. I don’t know why You Gov didn’t include Lib Dem preference in forming government? that’s an interesting question.

  17. Lab/Con marginals, even.

  18. Thanks Gattino. Anecdotes are often mildly amusing at best and still not terribly instructive, but yours is both a salutary lesson AND made me giggle.

  19. @MITZ

    “Those LibDem supporting hard Labour voters must be tacticians in Lib/Con marginals – only explanation I can think of anyway.”

    Yes, that makes sense. I guess that the answer is “would vote labour” rather than “will vote labour” allows for the discrepancy in a way I hadn’t considered. Interesting in itself.

  20. @Jack Jackson

    “I don’t know why You Gov didn’t include Lib Dem preference in forming government?”

    The Sun are paying them

  21. Gattino :-)
    It brought back my MIL (GRHS) and my mother (now doesn’t know or care) and just about everyone of her upbringing and that class.

    Try canvassing and discover yourself.

  22. Chris onm TV.

    It’s also a way of discovering how many know they live in a marginal (and what sort).

  23. Have Angus Reid deliberately gone quiet because they were so badly out with thier %s?

  24. @ Colin Green

    STV for all elections may be a neat solution – however, Hell would freeze over before the Conservatives would agree to that! It can always be reasonably argued that the house of Commons is unique in that it exists to provide a Government and a Loyal Opposition – whereas all other bodies in the realm are there to represent a broad range of opinion. A mild amendment to pure PR for the Commons plus full PR for all other bodies would not be that extraordinary, given their different functions.

  25. From the Mori poll of marginals

    “As in the previous polls, only three in ten think that they live in a marginal constituency.”

    So hard to see where tactical voting on an unprecedented scale is going to come from, unless lots of people are going to vote tactically in such a way as would best achieve a hung parliament rather than just as an anti-Tory or anti-Lab vote.

    Also with,

    “A week before polling day, almost half of the public say that they may change their mind before May 6th (46%). Conservative voters are more likely to have definitely decided (65%) than Labour and Lib Dem voters (51% and 42%). Both Labour and Conservative supporters who say they may change their mind would be twice as likely to switch to the Liberal Democrats as to the other major party. Of Liberal Democrats who might change their minds, more think it would be to vote Labour (52%) than Conservative (33%)

    there seems to be a staggering amount still to play for. If they were nervous before the first debate I hate to think what they are feeling like now…..

  26. @XIBY

    ‘I think no matter what the outcome we are going to have one unhappy nation after the 6th of May.’

    I totally agree with that, but I would say unhappy 3 nations, Scotland is divided almost 50 – 50 betweens pro nats and anti, that will be more acute after the GE

    Wales will be still Lab but a lot more anti in vote, and probably with a Tory largest party reslut

    England will be annoyed if the Celtic Lab vote has prevented their preferred conservative majority from happening, and even more annoyed if for the 2nd time Lab has more seats after England has voted Tory

    And in all 3 more lib dem anger because they look like getting their highest % of vote for nearly 100 years and less seats per % which is going to be highlighted more on reslut analysis than usual

  27. Howard – Can I have an Eoin T-Shirt too? I just put my money where my mouth is and had a little flutter. I had a rather bigger flutter on Lab most seats, but I took odds too good to leave on Lab Maj too.
    Think of the champagne I can buy if I win!!!

  28. Sorry, I meant a mild amendment to pure FPTP, not PR.

  29. The thing about the media is that the reality they create has to be different every day, or else people get bored. Short-term excitement does not reflect long-term sociological consistency. From that point of view, the extended coverage of the MPs’ expenses scandal is having more of an effect than one-off events.
    Still the PR/Harold and Maude/Heineken election

  30. @ZIBY

    “How would you feel about a Con Gov?
    -24% delighted down from 25%
    -46% dismayed up from 38%”

    that 46% need to make sure they get out to vote then!

  31. MORI poll. “A week before polling day, almost half of the public
    say that they may change their mind before May 6th (46%).”

    Does anyone know the comparable situation in previous elections? I have a recollection that there is always a sizeable minority who say this, but that in practice they end up either not voting or casting their votes in line with everyone else i.e. it makes no difference to the final outcome. However this time around I can believe that there are more people than normal who are genuinely hesitating between two or more choices given the unusual circumstances this time.

  32. Could someone explain to me how the several hundred thousand people who are overseas, but registered to vote here (serviceman, expats etc) are weighted into polling. I assume this population would be significantly Tory.

  33. RESULT result result,, I can type it honest !!!!!!!!

    ps I didn’t include NI because it is clear what the fault line is there

  34. @Bevan Blair

    The LibDems do not want AV. They much prefer STV. It’s very unlikely they would settle for AV as part of a post-election deal, if they hold the balance of power between Conservative and Labour, though they might accept some sort of AV+ system.

  35. @SUE

    good to see you are still optimistic!

  36. Bevan Blair,

    Interesting perspective from NZ, but just to correct you, Lib Dems do not love AV. STV is party policy and has been for over 30 years.

    I posted however that given that AV is on the table from Gordon Brown and that it would favour the Lib Dems compared to the current system, then Nick Clegg might be inclined to go for it…. I would only be happy with that if STV was used for the other house.

    If Clegg tries to impose AV on the party then that might cause a split, although most would probably hold their noses and count the MPs

  37. So Mr Mckay – the more brown shows himself to be rude crud and ignorant and the more innocent people he insults then the bigger the vote he gets ??

    Well this is certainly a novel take.

  38. As we are having a debate tonight about the economy and deficit etc.For those of you interested.

    Here is a link for debt/GDP ratio worldwide (2009)

    ht tps://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2186rank.html

    put the ” tt”s back together

  39. @Leslie

    “almost half of the public say that they may change their mind before May 6th”

    I may change my mind before the 6th but it is not that likely. Just because you might, doesn’t mean you will.

  40. ‘I wouldnt put your money on a 100.

    But, all along, we’ve had a Con majority here of between 20 and 30. And I still have it at exactly 27.

    Put a pound on that.’

    I meant Tory majority – not of 100

    Although I think anything up to 50 is possible

  41. GG
    Still the PR/Harold and Maude/Heineken election

    Is this an in-remark of ecologists? don’t get it.

  42. Yougov Con 34 Labour 31 LD 27 being tweeted by the Labour Party.Anyone know where we can read the details?

  43. Gattino – your red knickers are showing. Did you even read as far as the second half of Xiby’s post? I guess not.

  44. Joe5 – I don’t think GB CAN win tonight in the classic sense – ie when the post debate polls come out, I don’t see any option where he wins it. Whether he wins the argument or not is a different matter, if you see what I mean.

    Andrew McCaig – Do you mind me asking who your Lab candidate is?

  45. The biggest one day swing in election history from a previous poll occurred in 1970. c.15%. In 1992 we estimate there was a c.10% swing on the final day or so.

    Ironically, the former favoured the opposition and the latter favoured the incumbent.

  46. I’d like a T-Shirt saying “I disagreed with Éoin once” just to show how hard and independent of mind I am.

  47. @Trevorsden
    “the more innocent people he insults then the bigger the vote he gets ??”

    Talking of innocent people feeling insulted, have you read Milena Popova’s article on CiF?

  48. The New Statesman is now carrying the misheard word by GB c.12am yesterday. I wonder were they got that notion from?

  49. Sue,

    Jamie Hanley.

  50. @YOZZA

    I think it might be a mistake. Last night’s poll with Lab & Lib reversed.

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