ComRes’s poll was supposed to be embargoed until 10pm, but given both ITV’s Meridian Tonight and Conservativehome have already published it it seems somewhat pointless to wait. Their rolling poll for ITV and the Independent has figures of CON 36%(+3), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 26%(-3). ComRes’s fieldwork would have been conducted between Monday and Tuesday, so wholly prior to the Mrs Duffy incident (though at the same time as Populus’s poll yesterday, which also showed 36% for the Tories).


365 Responses to “ComRes/ITV/Indy – 36/29/26”

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  1. @THERESA

    going on the last couple of weeks I imagine that the you gov poll will come out about 8pm, although whatever it reveals will still be overshadowed by the debate I would think

  2. @Theresa
    “Il iive in Kentucky”
    _______________________
    Fascinating. Who is your Governor ?

  3. @COZMO
    -No. I live in the opposite end of the state, (close to the Tennessee border with KY)

  4. @Theresa,

    Near Cookville?

  5. @COZMO
    The Governor is Steve Beshear

  6. Sue Marsh

    Please have a nice cup of tea

    Plenty of time for a ‘game changer’

    Enjoy the debate tonight.

  7. Billy Bob – good idea, and a nice relaxing bath!!! Lol

  8. This site’s really gone downhill. I used to enjoy reading about people’s interpretations of the polls. But these comments (and a few more from other debates) are so partisan, and in some cases, downright insulting, that the whole reason for reading a site that declares itself non-open to partisan posts is degraded.

    There are plenty of sites where you can heckle and spout garbage about who should win, who’s a disgrace, who you love, who you hate….but this was possibly the only political site where that wasn’t allowed. How about some of you going to those sites and leaving this little oasis of reasonable discussion?

  9. The human brain if your IQ is above 100 should not be intellectually satisfied by a story for this long. There is something called the ‘wallpaper effect’; it should have kicked in by now. It certainly has in those using the BBC’s news website, since they are now viewing 10 other stories as more important than this one. Thus, in the interests of satisfying your brain’s intellectual curiousity, if indeed it has one, you would be best to move on from this story.

  10. @EOIN CLARKE
    -Closer to Knoxville than Cookeville

  11. Steve/Theresa,

    I think under the circumstances YouGov and the Sun will “bust a gut” to make sure the poll comes out in time for the evening news.

    I’m going to predict that labour will drop to 23% at most (this is based mainly on the “TellYouGov” instant reaction poll on their website, which has Brown even more negative than last night, and still top story by a mile – the people on the YouGov panel are likely to make a significant proportion of the tweeters here. Of course all the party hacks like the folk who post here will have been on there voting two, but the sentiment is VERY negative). I also predict that although the main beneficiary will be Clegg, the ITV headline will be “Tories set for victory following Brown gaffe”. Which may well turn out to be true

  12. Gattino,

    My first thought on seeing GB insulting that pensioner yesterday was also, “that could be my mum (a lifelong labour supporter). Equally many core Labour supporters will have thought the same – that could have been me, or one of my family that GB was attacking.

    Also, daring to mention immigration does not make you one of the “bloody foreigners” brigade as you put it.

  13. AW
    Why moderate me? I was appealing for calm and trying to bring the discussion back to the polls?

  14. I was moderated 3 times for trying to move things along. (sigh).

  15. If this point has been made I apologise.

    The real impact of “bigotgate” is on the undecided and swing voters many of whom from the polls as we know have not made up their minds.

    Today’s Field polling is going to be just as interesting as tomorrow post debate.

    In the US election they had “Joe the Plumber” dominate one of their debates, as a prop for McCain is Brown going to preface his responses with Gillian the Pensioner in the way McCain used Joe?

  16. @ANDREW

    “I also predict that although the main beneficiary will be Clegg”

    it won’t be if as a result of this Cameron gets an overall majority – which is now increasingly likely

  17. PK pointedout yesterday that Lab needed a spurt in support to achieve largest party status. it’s becoming increasingly clear that he is right, and that should the GE UNS really end up 34/27/29, Cons will at the very least be the largest party, and possibly gain a majority.
    Essentially, this all means that Labour need to close the gap to about 4 points at most. With just tonight’s debate to come that seems a tall order.

  18. Don’t Tell Em Pike & Eoin,

    When I clean them out, I try to clean them all out (I think almost every post that even mentioned the word dan has gone).

    Not least, it’s looks bloody odd if the argument itself is gone and there’s a comment from you left asking everyone to calm down :)

  19. Eoin, Don’t-Tell-Em Pike etc – But it worked didn’t it??? We had asked politely several times for things to be less rabid, but all comments were left. When I finally started throwing it back I achieved my aim of getting AW to step in at last.
    Took a pretty hefty hit for the left there though so I’ll have to be on my best behaviour from now on. Lol
    Can’t say it wasn’t fun though

  20. @John T T
    Well said. I visit this site to discuss and learn about opinion polls. I thought it was supposed to be moderated???
    @Sue
    Hang in there. I appreciate Your wisdom and wit.

  21. DEBATE QUESTIONS
    -Will voters ask all of the debate questions at today’s debate?
    -Or…are the debate moderators permitted to ask questions also?

  22. Just joined the site again – gave up last night with all the rubbish re bigotgate.

    Does anyone know what polls are out tonight, both covering people’s voting intention and also who has won the debate.

  23. Going back to the Sun poll, one that had the Tories lower and the LD’s higher, do you think it strange that you cannot go to the page detailing those numbers on the Sun’s website? You can go to any other page, but this page comes up 404.

    This tells me there will be another poll this evening that will be much higher for the Tories and once lower for the LD’s.

    As we get closer to May 6th, I get more and more nervous about newspaper manipulation of these polls by withholding, or even maybe manipulating how questions are asked to get certain answers….

  24. Morning Everyone :o

    Well I suppose just like NO ONE AT ALL predicted what happened to the LD share of the vote then NO ONE could have predicted the huge ‘Bigotgate’ GB gaff especially so close to the GE date – pure classic and YES we all know it could have happened to any one of them but it happened to the incumbant PM and whether some people like it or not it certainly does make a big difference to some voters ie; the damage has already been done!

    The effect on the polls (which is why we are on this site in the first place will be laid bare for all to see between tonights polls and the Sunday Papers.

    May not move them at all but I think they will move – BUT which way and to which colour?

    However I will be bold and make a prediction for tonights YouGov at least:

    Con 35/36

    LD 30/31

    Lab 26/27

  25. Eoin,

    I think in the context of this site we should move on from the story itself (ie what GB may or may not have heard), to the effect it may have on the YouGov poll that will come out before the debate.

    I’ve given my view (based on evidence from the YouGov site, admittedly with no precedent to guide interpretation) – how about yours (based on evidence, not what you or anyone else “thinks” voters might do)

    You have pointed out that viewers of the BBc site have moved on, but people are only likely to watch the video once, and that does not mean it has had no effect… There were some very powerful images and words associated with that story, and I don’t think the effect will fade too quickly – but that is just an opinion of course

    Andrew

  26. The YG poll fieldwork closes at 1600 so all you Gate obsessives will have your answer at 2000 (if as usual).

    I’ve got ‘come to the aid of the party’ work to do.

    I’ve just wasted half an hour reding that which informed me about zilch on here

  27. My postal vote turned up yesterday.
    How many others received it yesterday?

    So people got home last night, turned the TV on, saw Gordon Bigot on the news, opened their post and in a fit of pique put a cross by a non-Labour candidate.

    Are people that fickle?
    Or should that be: how many people are that fickle?

    I understand that polling companies are not allowed to do polls of people that have already voted, but might they be able to ask when they voted?

  28. Peter Kelner currently on BBC news 24

  29. COLIN:
    The “disaster” ( his FIRST concern) was being questioned publicly by a lady whose first sentence included the phrase ” …..and now I’m absolutely ashamed of saying I’m Labour”

    Would you point out where she said ‘……..and now I’m absolutely ashamed of saying I’m Labour”

    The following link has a full transcript of the exchange.
    timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7110540.ece

  30. Having spoke to many people, there is going to be a lot of anti Tory tacticle voting between LIb & Lab voters so opinion polls are not showing the whole picture.

  31. COLIN:
    sorry, found a better transcript that has that.

  32. so one week to go

    Tories surely should be under pressure to get an overall majority. After all if they can’t win now….!

    Lib Dems sweating over how much power they will have in a hung parliament – if it happens….

    Labour – siege mentality required

  33. @Andrew,

    A fair question.

    We ahve had gaffes before. I wont go into detail on them for fear of pointscoring but last weeks newspapers, audio clipps, expenses, datage etc. The Iraq war and Black wednesday are more drastic comparisons but nonetheless you can fathom fallout from them. My favourite comparison is the budget.

    Sustained bad news when everyone is focused an paying attention has had the capacity to cost Labour 2-3%. That said, their vote was c.32% at the time, before it was knocked down to 29%.

    Sitting at a low base already it is difficult to see it shredding much more off Labour’s vote share. I see a 26-7% in the medium term with half of those voters either a) Not voting b)switching to the BNP. to put that in voter terms i see a net gain of about 125,000 votes for the BNP. the other half of the voters may split more favourably to blue, so we might be YG go 35/6 with blue tonight. Ironcially it might halt the slow drift of UKIP supporters abck to the Tories. Then again it might increase it. So the effect on blue is harder to ascertain. It will halt any ‘long ahrd look at the Tories’, since the voters will ask, hold on, we have not had a long hard look at you. GB’s challenge tonight is to convince voters that they do know the real him.

    In the long term, and I think we can call a week a long time, it will not prevent red regaining momentum. It is a tremendously long time in politics. If GB has a good debate then he might get back up to 30.

    I will leave my own predicition aside (it won’t change) because it is not important to this question. You asked for an impartial answer and i am giving it.

    Yellows will be very fustrated indeed, their man cannot seem to get the coverage he once got.

  34. Sue –

    It didn’t work actually. I hadn’t stepping in earlier because I hadn’t been on the site. I really do have better things to do with my time, and if I can’t trust people to remain within the rules when I’m not here, they end up being pre-moderated so they can only post when I am.

    The rules are that replying in a partisan manner is as bad as starting it – dan is obviously on pre-moderation, you just dodged a bullet.

    On the subject, if your view is that you are taking one for the left, you are not posting in the spirit of non-partisanship. If anyone views their contribution here as standing up for one particular side, they need to go and read the comment policy again.

  35. Chris Box – “Having spoke to many people, there is going to be a lot of anti Tory tacticle voting between LIb & Lab voters so opinion polls are not showing the whole picture.”

    Actually, if that’s the case the polls probably would be showing the whole picture!

    Remember seat projections are based on what happened at the previous election, and at the last 3 or 4 elections there has been heaving anti-Conservative tactical voting by Lab and LD supporters. That continuing is basically the status quo, it’s already priced into the market as it were. What would mix things up was if the amount of anti-Conservative tactical voting weakened, or if tactical voting against Labour emerged.

  36. Sorry Anthony, but it got to the stage where it had to be done. 18 hours was a long time!!
    I realise I dodged a bullet, but the site had got so ridiculous in that 18 hours I didn’t really care

  37. Theresa

    Technically the moderator shouldn’t ask questions, but is also supposed to “seek factual clarification when necessary”, so the rule is more broken than kept.

    Full rules for debates here:

    w w w.bbc.co.uk/blogs/pm/2010/04/those_election_debate_rules.shtml

    Putting the W’s together.

    There were about 700 complaints when Adam Boulton asked a question about the Clegg bank account (non-) story on his own initiative, so they may be more scrupulous this time.

  38. Gary: “From the BBC “British National Party leader Nick Griffin says up to 180,000 people a year could be paid resettlement grants of £50,000 to leave Britain”

    Nevermind the racist implications thats £9Bn a year?!”

    He was interviewed on Today this morning c. 8.50 (10 mins from end for people wanting to listen in iplayer). Its OK, he’s going to pay for it by cancelling subsidies/grants for environmental measures. Its a more subtle way of trying to get rid of people – send them to places where climate change is likely to have a more devasatating impact and then don’t do anything about climate change.

    He also seemed to have very confused ideas about the Irish and French.

  39. I’ve been moderated – sorry Anthony if I let my feelings override my discretion.

  40. Anthony

    Quick technical question. Are you now asking people “how they have or how they will” vote in the GE? Presumably if you don’t ask which, this is still legal?

  41. @ROGER MEXICO
    -Thank you for info re debate rules. it was very helpful.
    -I have heard there are some US politicos there helping the candidates with debate prep

  42. Eoin – Could you find a sec to explain to me why you seem so sure that none of these “events” – Clegg surge, debates, flocking-gate will affect the final outcomes?
    Surely with every day now Labour will find it harder and harder to get to 34 and every day with the Libs on 30+ makes it more likely that they will poll way more than 22.
    I totally understand where you got the figures from when the campaign was called, but what makes you so sure they won’t change no matter what?

  43. RE DEBATE COVERAGE
    -I just saw c-span announce they are covering the debate live in the US today.
    YEAH!!!
    -Right now c-span is showing the whole rigamarole that happened yesterday on c-span

  44. Roger –

    We’ve made a minor change – on the likelihood to vote question, it now says something along the lines of how likely are you to vote, or have you voted already by post. Then the scale goes from 1 – definitely won’t vote up to 10 – definitely will vote, or have already voted by post.

    It’s perfectly legal to ask it seperately and factor it into polling figures that way. All that you can’t to is seperately publish the figures for those who have already voted.

  45. @EOIN

    “Yellows will be very fustrated indeed, their man cannot seem to get the coverage he once got.”

    in a very well considered post this last sentence is particularly spot on I feel. Certainly the Lib Dems have peaked and will struggle to get their message across from her on in. They should also be concerned that a Conservative overall majority is becoming more possible.

    I said on here yesterday that at least people will now listen to what Gordon Brown says tonight (and the incident yesterday will also of course increase the numbers that listen) I suppose it will depend on whether people believe it anymore though.

  46. It is almost always how the campaign plays with the undecided and swings that decide elections.1992 was classic.

    So us gamblers have to weigh up the liklihoods.

    On the polling trends and disregarding UNS I believe that it is now more likely that the Cons will win. But….

    The polls have shown some deterioration in the core Labour vote in the Midlands, the North and particularly in the North East from Lab to Lib Dem.

    Is “Bigotsgate” a catalyst pre the last debate that breaks the core Labour vote? If the voter gets the idea after the debate that the Libs Dems can win it then it goes back to being a straight 2 party race for pop vote something like 35/35/22/8, I have no idea what this would mean in seat distribution.

  47. Best Nick Griffin line on Today was something like, “Now you’re just trying to catch me out by asking me about what my party’s policies are again aren’t you?”.

  48. Theresa – I think Cameron has hired a coach that helped Obama.

    I suspect Brown has read a couple of books on presentation skills and listens to one or two colleagues.

    Clegg has probably got assistance from a writer or two.

    However, the coaches are a waste of money. The only thing that will make anyone look and sound more honest, is Honesty itself.

    Changing focus from a member of the audience to a camera is a technique that only a naturally honest person can make look natural (or a consummate actor – thank goodness none of them is that).

    Otherwise, such techniques (and we can add “open hand gestures”, pregnant pauses, three parters, enthymemes, use of contrasts, anecdotes) look and sound trite at best and contrived and false at worst.

  49. Eoin, can I add my voice to Sue’s request? There surely must be some circumstances in which you would revise your forecast and unless you had a crystal ball, you could not have anticipated the surge or flocking-gate. (love that phrase, Sue!). If the entire shadow cabinet were found in bed with a herd of cattle wouild you still be forecasting the Tories at 36% on 6 May?

  50. Anthony – re your comment that “All that you can’t to is seperately publish the figures for those who have already voted.”

    Does this mean that pollsters MUST not separately identify the voting of those who have already voted by post in the data/analyses provided to the poll sponsor?

    Do you know, based on previous elections where there were postal votes, which groups of people tend to vote postally?

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