ComRes’s poll was supposed to be embargoed until 10pm, but given both ITV’s Meridian Tonight and Conservativehome have already published it it seems somewhat pointless to wait. Their rolling poll for ITV and the Independent has figures of CON 36%(+3), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 26%(-3). ComRes’s fieldwork would have been conducted between Monday and Tuesday, so wholly prior to the Mrs Duffy incident (though at the same time as Populus’s poll yesterday, which also showed 36% for the Tories).


365 Responses to “ComRes/ITV/Indy – 36/29/26”

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  1. @ Rosie P
    “Whilst there’ll be a few excitable idjits who will change their vote away from Lab as a result of this – the main problem is that it is very unlikely anyone would move towards Lab as a result.”

    I know of several people who are more likely to vote Labour after this incident. They feel (rightly or wrongly) that Brown was set-up, that £50k and a right-wing publicist proves their point, and that considering that hectoring he received, he did well to suppress any anger until in a “private situation”.
    It could well be the case that the media onslaught against Brown will once again backfire, especially with it being led by journalists who are incapable of hiding their contempt for all things non-Tory.
    How will this impact the polls, could well have a slump in Labour or a bounce, depending on how the issue falls and the impact of the debate.

  2. Rosie:
    Is Duffy the change mechanism to propel CamCon to Downing Street? Or will the thought of economic meltdown concentrate minds? I suspect Sun readers and Sky Viewrs will fall into the former category!
    ………………
    Whatever,it’s highly likley that this group of voters was going to vote Tory anyway.
    Thoughtful voters will work things out ofr themselves by listening to debates and looking at policy.

  3. Enough of Mrs Duffy. But she has done a great service getting immigration into the spotlight.

    I have a question. At what level of support would labour start to lose large numbers of seats . One poll has them at 25% presumably much lower than this and their 200 plus seats start to fall sharply ?

  4. Do you think the BBC would have released that sound clip? Or was it a cynical ploy by the Murdoch media????

  5. By midday the Flockinggate story will have moved on. Back to polls I think……………..

  6. @Michael Reid,

    Labour are on 28% of the poll. The one that has them at 25% historically records low percentages of the vote for Labour and its fieldwork is a week old.

    Better to Look at ICM/YG/ComR/Populus

  7. Sorry, I mean course of action , not curse.. ! :-) :-) .. of course!

  8. Brown’s mishap is third in the most watched videos on the BBC site, evidence if needed that ‘dust is settling’.

  9. One wonders whether LAB will gain more votes from people from overseas who are entitled to vote in the UK.
    Surely his defence is admirable!

  10. -I see this site has changed GBs biasgate story into Mrs Duffy’s flockinggate story
    -I saw it headed in that direcion last night

  11. Oh it appears my previous mail is awaiting moderation, thought it was because I mistyped course for curse and yet the next one went through…
    Didn’t think I have been too naughty to be on the naughty step… :-(

  12. I thought I would share with you an experience. I go to the gym every morning at 6:30. There this morning were-
    2 teachers
    1 school secretary
    1 Police sergeant
    2 theatre nurses
    1 district judge.
    3 Local authority workers.

    During the 20 years I have been going to the gym we have NEVER talked politics.
    This morning someone mentioned “bigot gate” and the whole atmosphere changed. People were incensed. I was astounded.
    I did not ask who they were voting for, but I know who they are not voting for.

    Back to canvassing!

  13. I forgot to add 3 retired people, including myself

  14. Is there a TNS-BRMB?

  15. IMO the best course of action is for Labour to remind the Mrs Duffys of this world who is looking after their best interests.

  16. True, Rosie, however, I feel that the vast majority of people have already made their mind up about Brown. For some this will confirm their opinion of him, whilst for others this incident will serve to remind them that they feel he has been unfairly tagetted, or is just unlucky etc.

    As for actual movement, I doubt there will be much, and some if it depends on how negative some of the press reports are – look at the Clegg stuff last week.

  17. I’ve never known ANY political story seize the imagination of the population so much as this one.
    I had 3 visits late yesterday afternoon WWC/lower middle class in Accrington/Clayton-le-Moors and they all brought it up (I obviously can’t bring it up)and were completely disgusted.Partner spoke to family in South-East (Slough also WWC) and they felt the same.Is this complete wipe out of Labour’s final core vote.

    Will Labour will polling in the mid-teens – surely only the Guardianistas/ethnic minorities will still be voting for them?

  18. I’ve been looking at commentary on this story on other website and media articles and keep seeing the same pattern over and over and over again as appears on the comments here… utterly fascinating: People who are not labour supporters, or who are supporters of other political parties, keep stating the confident assertion that the people they have least in common with politically – labour’s core vote, its northern heartland, its natural constituency — are going to be personally offended, turned off and turn against labour now.

    That’s to say they keep predicting the sentiments of people who do not share their political leanings. And not once…not one single time in any online comment I’ve found – have these comments come from any member of the same core labour vote who are having their reactions decided for them. I’ve not seen a single person identifiying themselves as a “labour yesterday but not now” member of the public. The closest we ever seem to get is the rare occurrence of a take your word for it claim that “my wife/mother/next door’s handyman votes labour – unlike myself – but is disgusted and says they definitely won’t be now”.

    The wife, mother or handyman never seem to make an appearance themselves.

    Most peculiar.

    Next week I shall announce the inner thoughts and horrified reactions of the tory party’s natural supporters to something I disagree with. I feel for them enough to do that. Oh yes.

  19. PAM F

    Ironically, I think the best course of action would have been for Labour to have ditched Brown 6-12 months ago.

    The only reason he isn’t being forced out now is because we are in the midst of the election campaign. If he had done this at any other time he would surely have been a ‘dead man walking’.

    Ironically I think there is still quite a lot of sentiment/sympathy towards Labour as a party or their general principles but not enough to outweight the negative ‘Brown’ effect. A lot of those voters seem to be deserting to the Lib Dems, with some going to others and many probably not going to vote.

    I think the Lib Dems are going to see a significant spike in their support and the Tories will probably see a slight jump too as some Labour heartland voters switch.

    I don’t think the effect will be as big as some commentators have suggested but in this tight election I think it could still be very significant.

    This election may well become about whether the Tories get first place or not. If there is a bigger jump for Clegg and another post debate surge then we could see the Lib Dems increasing their share of the vote to more than the Tories.

  20. @ Sue Marsh

    “Wow, catching up with that thread is an hour I’ll never get back. Some of the hypocrisy is breathtaking.”

    My thoughts entirely.

    I think the key factor in Rotherham has been missed.
    It is to be found in the actual sequence of words in the car.

    First:- GB-” That was a DISASTER-should never have put me with that woman….”

    Aid-” Not sure they’ll go with that one”

    BG-” THEY WILL GO WITH THAT ONE”

    Aid-“what did she say?”

    GB-” EVERYTHING, she was just a sort of bigoted woman who said she USED TO BE LABOUR. …..Sue pushed her up towards me ”

    What so upset GB is obvious:-

    The “disaster” ( his FIRST concern) was being questioned publicly by a lady whose first sentence included the phrase ” …..and now I’m absolutely ashamed of saying I’m Labour”

    His SECOND concern was that the Press would “run with “the encounter

    His THIRD concern was that Mrs Duffy “said everything”-ie she covered a lot of ground on various policy areas, and was critical of many-in public.-and she “used to be Labour”-ie a disaffected Labour voter .

    So-this was GB getting very upset because his aid had “pushed” a traditional & long standing Labour supporter, forward who then proceeded to explain -on a number of fronts-why she was now “ashamed of saying I’m Labour”-and all on national TV-a “disaster”.

    This is the real story.
    I am amazed that Cons haven’t hammered it home-an open goal.
    It has much more mileage & relevance than the totally un-newsworthy revelation that GB says one thing to your face & something else behind your back.

    ….Good to see Cons back to 35% plus. North of this they stand a chance.

  21. @ John – “For some this will confirm their opinion of him, whilst for others this incident will serve to remind them that they feel he has been unfairly tagetted, or is just unlucky etc.”

    That’s true. But it’s also true that some lifelong Labour voters will identify with Mrs Duffy and feel personally insulted by Brown. This is certainly how my mother feels and she has been a grassroots Labour supporter and local campaigner all her adult life. She watched the footage on the news and felt it could just as easily have been her or one of her Labour-supporting friends in Mrs Duffy’s shoes.

    I think that’s a huge problem for Brown now. There are millions of Labour voters out there who easily identify with Mrs Duffy – ordinary, working-class, decent people with mildly expressed, undogmatic concerns about immigration levels. These people – and their equivalents for other parties – are bedrock voters and they’ll put up with a lot but not with being held in contempt.

  22. @ Andy W

    The BBC would not have aired it if it was their clip, it would have breached their own broadcast rules apparently. This was reported yesterday.

  23. I don’t think many people have changed their opinion of GB himself (which was pretty low in general I think)

    so I don’t see more damage being done.

    As long as lame excuses re hearing don’t continue.

    (By the way, Mrs TT is quite big-gutted at the moment but I’d expect a thick ear if she caught me saying so)
    :)

  24. I haven’t posted in a while, I haven’t had anything usefull to say….

    But to back Glenn Otto up, in our office, which is generally a no politics office…… its all people were talking about.

    The bigot thing was bad enough, but the 2 bits that have people incecsed is a) the spinning it as he missheard her b) the way he believed he shouldn’t have met her

    This will play, mostly with the undecideds, but it will firm up the tory and LD votes if nothing else.

    There was some sympothy for GB the person, in that we all make those kind of Gaffes ( i’ve been caught out myself ) but the feeling was if thats how he feels he shouldn’t be running the country.

  25. @James Ludlow

    You omitted to inform us if the personal distress and sense of insult felt by your grassroots Labour supporter mother, representing millions like her as she does, has reached such a level that she informed you she could no longer bear to vote for a labour government. Was this an oversight? Or, unlike the silent millions, has she just about managed to steel herself this time?

  26. @James Ludlow

    …but they’re hardly likely to flock to the LD with their stance on immigration and the EU. And I’d imagine a vote for the Tories would be unthinkable for most of them. And they won’t vote BNP because they’re *NOT* bigots.

    I see a great many just not turning out to vote.

  27. MARTIN E

    That would be be my assessment too.

    Although I don’t think we should underestimate the effect of undecideds and first time voters potentially deserting Labour.

  28. @ Martin E – I agree. I think the response of many will be simply not to vote at all.

  29. Wonder if we will get any polls that show the ‘Duffy / Bigotgate effect’ – will we get one before the debates?

  30. @Theresa
    “queasy”
    Am thinking about that one & will let you know.
    Which State do you live in?

  31. @JAMES LUDLOW
    re your comment
    voters will identify with Mrs Duffy and feel personally insulted by Brown.

    -Personally, I identify with Mrs Duffy.
    -Can you imagine the humilliation she must have felt after being called a bigot by her Prime Miinister

  32. Even Murdoch couldn’t find anyone much to say it would make them vote differently

  33. @SUE

    Ok, sorry I was just backing up the point that it is a hot topic of conversation this morning….

    If you want some crumbs of comfort, quick straw poll in the office of 12 people, it only effected 1 persons vote and that was actually for labour ( to a lot of puzzled looks ) but you can never tell with the British public can go either way.

  34. My thoughts on seeing GB insulting that pensioner were – that could be my mum (herself a lifelong labour supporter). What was worse that the insult itself though, is the spin that has come out afterwards from the Labuor machine. If GB thought he heard this mild mannered pensioner utter an expletive, you have to wonder how his mind works.

    Will this have an effect on the polls? Well I’m sure it will harden attitudes against Brown, where voters already had doubts. It will be very interseting to see tonights polls, even though they will probably be out of date by the time we see how this has played I guess.

  35. @James Ludlow

    Do I take it from that – the use of the word abandon – that you are now telling us she has indeed informed you she will not now vote for the labour party she loved so much – but just short of influencing her son with her devotions – because she so identified her own views on immigration with those of MRS Duffy that she felt she herself was being pilloried as a bigot, and in her distress would rather tolerate a conservative government than put up with such infamy?

    Only you seem to have thus far carefully avoided saying so.

    If I appear sarcastic its because some things invite sarcasm. Again and again I keep reading non labour people informing eachother how labour people – that would be me – feel and are going to react. Well I’ve stepped outside my working class inner city safe seat northern heartland front door and can tell you cheerfully your concern is appreciated but terribly misplaced. I’ve not encountered any “I’m Mrs Duffy! No, I’m Mrs Duffy!” parade of silver haired spartacuses in my world

  36. If Angus Reid polled immediately after the debate last Thursday, why are we not hearing of any polls from them?

  37. Brown’s mishap is not even in the BBC’s most ten red stories….

  38. “I’ve not encountered any “I’m Mrs Duffy! No, I’m Mrs Duffy!” parade of silver haired spartacuses in my world”

    Lol

    Very good Gattino.

    Does anyone actually know if we are due any polls today before the debate?

  39. @SUE MARSH
    Polls?? Anyone?
    -I did check in to see if there are any polls due out before the debate
    -If there is a change in the polls after the debate tonight; it will be impossible to tell whether it is due to the debate or what happened yesterday.

  40. @Anthony,

    Is it perhaps time to call a halt to this irrational frenzy?

  41. From the BBC “British National Party leader Nick Griffin says up to 180,000 people a year could be paid resettlement grants of £50,000 to leave Britain”

    Nevermind the racist implications thats £9Bn a year?!

  42. @Mike R (8.20)

    I’m no expert but having a play with the predicter thingy, assuming a tory share of 36% and Libdem 27% if the labour vote falls to 23% then the tories will gain a majority.

    Others can correct this if not accurate (and i’m sure they will!)

  43. No mention yet of ‘flockingate’ in the mainstream media.

    am so looking forward to the debate tonight

  44. @”Theresa”
    I asked which USA State you live in as I have an interest in USA politics. I note that you have not answered. You must be truly addicted to our political scene to be posting messages at somewhere around 4am (your time??)

  45. all this could end up being a disaster for the Lib Dems too.

    I think there is a very real possibility that the Tories could now win a lot of Labour seats they weren’t expecting – and therefore gain an overall majority.

  46. Too much frothing at the mouth on here at the moment. Very few readable or informed opinions. Those thinking that GB will get away with it aren’t being too realistic. Those who see this as the end of the Labour patrty need to remember that for the last 13 years we’ve all been talking about the end of the Tory Party.

    Still stand by my ealier comment – storm in a tea cup that might slop over a bit but I doubt it’s really game changing.

  47. Polls?!?
    Anyone know if any due out before the debate?

  48. @COZMO
    -Sorry I didn’t answer. Missed your post.
    -I live in Kentucky
    -Yes. I am a politiholic.

  49. @Theresa,

    In the home of the “Louisville lip” by any chance?

  50. @Theresa,

    A.k.a Muhammed Ali of course

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