YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%(+1), LAB 27%(-2), LDEM 31%(+3). Some movement back towards the Lib Dems there, and the first time YouGov have had them at over 30 for a week. Note that the fieldwork for YouGov is roughly 4pm or so to 4pm or so, so the large majority of this was conducted prior to Gordon Brown’s meeting with Mrs Duffy.

ComRes and Harris GB voting intentions still to come tonight I believe.

UPDATE: The new Harris poll in the Metro apparently has figures of CON 32%(-2), LAB 25%(-1), LDEM 30%(+1) (though before now I’ve reported Harris polls from the TV, and found different figures in the Metro the next day!). No dates yet, so I don’t know how this fits in with others.


144 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 34/27/31”

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  1. Others back down to 8% with YG.

    Harris have others at 13%

    Big difference….

    I suspect the former is much more accurate.

  2. There are rumours that Mrs Duffy will be going to the press. From Labour’s point of view, if that happens may indeed be the saviour. It can easily be turned round:

    “She is doing it for the money”. The moral high ground is immediately lost !

  3. Does anyone know the dates the Harris poll was conducted

  4. Harris poll for the metro

    Con 32 Lib Dem 30 Lab 25

  5. A dissapointing day all round. Sky should be ashamed of themselves and Gordon Brown must feel like crawling into a hole.

  6. At this rate Labour’s looking at 3rd place and they’ll be lucky to get the most seats. If they’ve lost this much support before the Duffy-gate gaffe, what’s going to happen after? The Duffy gaffe may not have a great effect, but it’s likely to cost Labour some ground, and some will really start to question Brown’s integrity.

  7. Of course she’ll go to the press. Can you imagine how much the right-wing press are wiling to pay to get her story in their papers slating Brown?

  8. ICM/Guardian poll of Lib Dem targets, from the Guardian “In the 42 seats in which the party came second in 2005 and which it could take on a swing of 6% or less

    Lib Dems 39% Cons 35% Lab 18% Others 7%

  9. Incidentall, all three polls tonight (and populus last night) (and opinium the night before) show the Tories opening up a 7-8% lead over blue…

    With a 1.5% marginal boost, that could leave them very close to a majority.

    Not what I think will happen but it is only right to point it out.

  10. Interestinger and interestinger

  11. That Lib Dem marginal poll is very good news for them – obviously means they are doing well exactly where they need to.

  12. Do we know what the voting was in 2005 on those 42 seats?

  13. @EOIN CLARKE
    -3 polls?
    -I have only seen YouGov and Harris.
    What is the 3rd poll you are referring to?

  14. @ Eoin

    “With a 1.5% marginal boost, that could leave them very close to a majority.
    Not what I think will happen but it is only right to point it out.”

    This is what will happen, especially if Mrs Duffy has anything to do with it.

  15. That ICM marginals poll is fascinating! How ICM must be rueing the fact they didn’t stretch further down the LD target list. On those figures and given the huge Lab-LD swings has Xiby highlighted over recent days in the North and elsewhere, the LDs could nearly double the siz of their parliamentary party?

  16. Interesting report on Liberal marginals

    guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/28/liberal-democrats-labour-marginals-poll

  17. Eoin/Robert:

    As a Canadian observer, I’m curious: Even if the Tories have a 7-8% margin or better on Labor, if the Lib Dems stay in the 30% range, does that not negate any chances of the Tories having a majority?

    (I’m with the folks like Nate Silver who think assuming uniform swings will happen in a 3 way race is a bad assumption, seeing as we have similar 3 way splits here in Canada, even 4 way splits).

  18. @JACK 93
    Wellcome back Jack, you must have been on Planet Zzaar for some years if you think Brown has any integrity. Also, even before he insulted the lady in Rochdale Labour were not going to win the most seats.
    ‘@EOIN
    Its about time you were “struck” on the road to Damascus and saw the light. You are to bright to be wrong all the time.

  19. Well I was about to post something sarcastic about trends there, but actually GB has got me a bit worked up about politicians being contemptuous of ordinary voters, so I wont!

    Will be very interested to see what YouGov get tomorrow…

    ICM in the Guradian mildy interesting, but why can’t they do a proper job and poll Tory-Lib Dem marginals separately from Labour Lib-Dem ones?? As it is the figures are pretty much uninterpretable

  20. Harris???? Funny Sky are now covering these no name polling companies that the same time not covering them in their rolling poll – their partisanship is getting more and more profound every day.

    PS – Wonder if SKY would have reported if Cameron said something similar as Brown did, recorded on a SKY mike?

  21. @ Gary E

    But even more interesting is what is happening to the Lib Dem vote in ‘safe’ Labour seats where the Tories are the opposition – that’s what is likely to decide the election. Personally, I think Lib Dem supporters would be crazy to vote Lib Dem in these constituencies. If the Conservatives win a large number of these seats, the chances of electoral reform disappear – well for the immediate future anyway

  22. If anyone’s going to change their mind on the basis of a few off cuff comments like Brown’s, they need their head examined. And I’m not a Labour supporter. Frivilous pap!

    Marginals seem very interesting. The UNS means nothing in this three-party UK, especially with no Lib Dem bounce in Scotland. Plus, I get the feeling, there might be a lot more tactical voting this time than ever before. Really, on the polls, there hasn’t been a trend at all for the past couple of weeks or so.

    Too close to call.

  23. @EOIN

    if reds fall ..and I think they will after todays madness..at what point does their vote and the increased liberal vote still pose a problem to blues ?

    or if tory lead is 7 plus over labour , does the liberal vote not really matter ?

    if blue is say 36 , reds 26 and yelows 29 ..in other words a reverse of you gov..does this make much difference to blues majority ?

    or does a switching of their opponent just keep things the same ?

  24. @comments re Harris Poll
    Harris has every party losing ground.
    Did the vote go to others or the undecided column?
    –Does anyone have this info?

  25. The Guardian report is definitely fascinating, I think the trends have shown for a while now that the bigger swings to the Lib Dems since 2005 have been coming from Labour more than Cons.

    At one point post 1st debate the swings were showing at about 9% from Lab to Lib Dem, and around 4.5-5% from Cons – Lib Dem.

    So 80 seats now looks extremely likely at least for them, can they leap over 100?

  26. @christopher
    turn the clock back to 1997…..and whine also at the bias in the media coverage for labour back then….
    if your guy doesnt want to get caught out then he shouldnt be an angry/self absorbed vile little man.

  27. @EOIN

    our canadian observer has just asked the same

    is a 7 or 8 point lead over labour negated by a late twenties liberal vote ?

  28. Roland

    Good post ;-)

    Greetings -are we supposed to be feeling a bit more hopeful-again….do you think?

    Or am I halucinating again?

  29. @EOIN

    ‘the Tories opening up a 7-8% lead over blue’

    Over the blue ? Now that’s more interesting than the Duffy affair !

  30. @SCOTT TRIBE

    Eoin did say “very close to a majority”, I agree with this.

    All I am certain of this: Cons will have biggest share of vote and greatest number of seats, Lib Dems will be second in share of vote and third in terms of number of seats, Labour will be third in share of vote and second in number of seats.

    Whether or not the Cons have a majority depends very much on the last debate, and what people will really do when they come to put their X on a piece of paper.

    Repeated (recent) surveys have shown that most don’t want a hung parliament, yet give voting intentions that mean this eventuality is almost certain…who said people were rational ?!

  31. Peter Kellner has just said that there will be a YouGov poll, conducted AFTER Brown’s gaffe, coming out at 10 pm tonight!

  32. It’s nothing to what Cameron now enjoys – did Blair or Mandleson invite editors to Labour HQ to orcastrate negative headlines against Major or Ashdown? No is the answer.

  33. @DAN

    I have no sympathy for brown at all

    I want electoral reform and if his stupidity has lost this to a tory outright majority he will be hung out to dry

    and rightly so

  34. WanderingWelshman:

    It is looking increasingly as though the Tory % could be quite similar to last time.

    If you take a Tory-labour marginal that needs a 3% swing from Labour to Tory to go blue, then a 6% swing from Labour to Lib Dem (with Tories unchanged) would be required. But of course if the Lib dems were only 5% behind they would come from third place to win.

    However, as was pointed out yesterday, swing is not as simple as just knocking 6% of one party and adding 6% to another, otherwise parties could get negative votes. It works OK for % in the 40-60% range, but increasingly poorly below that

  35. For those trying to call how LibDems should vote in Labour seats:

    1. Many LibDems are indeed closer to Labour and perfectly aware of it.
    2. Some are closer to the Tories, and perfectly aware of it.
    3. Others are hostile to both parties.
    4. The Clegg-bounce Liberals are quite possibly going to vote LibDem or not at all.

    Some doubtless think “anyone but the Tories”, but how many is pure speculation. Let us not impute any great level of political sophistication. Most people aren’t like that.

  36. There is a poll on the Metro website an “Urban life poll” Can’t be Harris I don’t think.

    “The Lib Dems are on 33 per cent, the Tories are on 21 per cent and Labour lag behind on 18 per cent.

    Only ten per cent of readers intend to vote for a minority party while 17 per cent remain undecided.

    When undecided voters are removed the Lib Dems are on 40 per cent, Conservatives are on 26 per cent and Labour are on 22 per cent.”

  37. Any Labour revival that last night polls may or may not hae showned, seems to have been a one off

  38. @Scott/Eoin/Robert

    The previous assumption was that getting above a 10% margin over Labour would put the Conservatives into a majority of seats. But this rule of thumb was based on the old assumption that the LibDems would poll no more than 26%.

    If the LibDems stay at their current boosted levels, which now looks likely, the Conservatives need to do substantially better, and get back up above 38% to get a majority. Something they have no signs of doing, even with a substantial marginal boost. And considering that they look unable to take the Lib/Con marginals they also needed, and the Lab/Con marginal boost is not as great as it once was, it looks fairly unlikely now that there will be a clear Conservative Majority.

  39. @wanderingwelshman
    fair point….i agree wholeheartidly
    @christopher
    no they had nightly supper meeting with alistair campbell……a thoroughly vindictive character

  40. -If there is a hung parliament; will GB remain prime minister until the election is sorted out?
    -I hope someone will be in charge.
    -It looks like the hoped for V shaped economic recovery is rapidly changing shapes.

  41. Does anyone know how the polls deal with the student vote? I would imagine nowadays this is quite sizable, but most students won’t have a land line in order to poll from. Do they call mobiles?

  42. @JAY BLANC

    You are, unfortunately, quite correct – but I still think the Cons will get “close”.

  43. Metro’s Urban Life poll is of fully employed 18 to 44-year-olds, who read Metro at least three times a week and live or work in a city.

    It was carried out on 1,124 readers between April 22 and 25. About 3.6million people read Metro a day.

  44. Andrew McCaig
    The Grauniad poll report actually states that there is no discernible swing Con to LD in those marginals but higher up talks of an *overall* swing of 2.5% which would unseat Letwin in Dorset West.

    Clearly Letwin would feel safer having read the first comment. It bears out some of FrankG’s comments about piling up votes where you don’t need them.

  45. +++ Pedantry Alert +++

    Looking at the poll tracker, wasn’t the the LDEM share of the vote 29% in the last Harris poll (Apr 23)? If so,

    CON 32%(-2), LAB 25%(-1), LDEM 30%(-1)

    should be

    CON 32%(-2), LAB 25%(-1), LDEM 30%(+1)

    (If I’ve missed another poll somewhere, I’ll go crawl under a rock.)

    +++ Pedantry Ends +++

  46. We are entering Con/Lib Dem coalition territory. I am sure that Dave wouldn’t mind Dr Cable as his Chancellor, not sure though about Vince? No question that NC would make a dynamic Foreign Secretary though I don’t know what Hague and the Sceptics would say about that?

    I don’t think we will get a PR system that lets any party in at under 10% something like that.

    On the other hand and i do have a considerable amount of money coming to me from Ladbrokes, if the labour vote crumbles to the Lib Dems as opposed stays at home.Stays at home Tories win it. and I haven’t hedged for that possibility.

  47. Hi Colin
    Yes, I think a wafer of a majority is now on. Never thought we would be worse than largest party, and we may well still be in that position. However now this Lancastrian harridan has dared question one or two issues including *immigration*, the great helmsman has disembowled himself in public.

  48. Someone should find out whether the later YouGov respondents polled differently from the earlier ones – I’m sure #bigotgate has had some impact. And tomorrow’s polls are going to be odd: fascinating because of today’s incident but pointless because of the debate

  49. @howard

    i assumed that meant that the swing from LAB to LIB wuld unseat Letwin as CON remained static while LIB rose?

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