Polls Tonight

Tonight we should have YouGov in the Sun, the regular ComRes for ITV and the Independent, and a new marginals poll (plus whatever less regular polls turn up!). Bear in mind that all the fieldwork for ComRes, and the vast majority of the fieldwork for YouGov, will have been conducted prior to Gordon Brown’s unfortunate encounter with Mrs Duffy.

I’ll update later as the results come in.


227 Responses to “Polls Tonight”

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  1. It will be interesting to see the impact of this on the polls. I hadn’t realised quite how vicious Sky and ITV reporting on this issue was until tonight. Sky have now decided that this must mean that Gordon Brown hates the white english working class. Totally unbalanced and partial but hardly surprising I suppose. Chris Grayling got off practically scot free for his gaffe by comparison. I think GB was born under a very unlucky star…everything he says and does seems to drag his party further down the toilet. What happens if the polls decline catastrophically for Labour..say down to 20%? Given that he is unlikely to survive as leader after the election…..maybe Mandelson could persuade him to resign now for the good of the party? Almost anybody else as leader couldn’t do worse surely?

  2. Eoin

    I consider that Harris has a demonstrable under valuation of Labour especially over 7 days, although looking down AW’s list, it seems we have a group of Lab ‘haters’ rather than poor old AR on its own.

  3. serious question

    do you think he might resign after the debate ?

    set out his partys stall , then admit he needs to step down for the good of the party ?

  4. @All
    I think you have been mis-interpeting the + and – on overall poll figures. I think Lab increase has been caused by more of their normally ‘apathic’ getting involve. This increase in overall % Lab had to result in a compensatory drop in Con% and LD%. The LD effect may have itself been off-set by their new voter boost, which again would have forced a compensatory drop in Con%. The result is that only Con seems be sliding. In practice the Con vote has not changed.

    Trying to get an overall picture for a miriad of sub currents is not working. I know it must be frustrating to poll Geeks (meant very nicely), but you are in new territory now and you have to conceive of multi- trends. The only way to look at this is regionally and that may not be small enough.

  5. Well if publicists and money get involved any public sympathy will disappear. Looking to see Labour back over 30 next few days

  6. Just put Conservatives on 36%, Libs 33% and Lab on 22% on the Elecoral Calculus. Conservatives would be 13 short. Libs have 145 seats and Lab 159:)

  7. Richard
    I take it you mean Con on 314

  8. Great news for Labour if Sun get involved, waging a campaign against Brown. Their backing for Cam started Labour’s poll recovery at Conference, then soldier’s letter etc. Let’s hope they keep it going till polling day

  9. I’ve just watched the 5 minute video of Mr’s Duffy’s immediate reaction when she heard what Gordon Brow said about her. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8649174.stm)

    It seems to me that everyone is forgetting the real pain and hurt that he has caused today. We all know that his words were an honest account of what he thought about Mrs Duffy’s views and by extension, the views of a large proportion of Labour voters – unlike his panicked apology.

    It is easy for the political elites, journalists and bloggers to underestimate how much the ‘common’ voter will identify with Mrs Duffy. If they come to the realisation that Gordon Brown looks down on them as well, this could lead to a collapse in support in the Labour heartlands.

  10. @wanderingwelshman

    “do you think he might resign after the debate ?”

    It would have to go very badly for him. Even then, I doubt it. GB resigning a week before an election would send panic signals to voters. Lots more Labour MPs will lose their seats above those who will lose anyway. For the good of the party, he will keep up appearances until the 7th at the earliest.

  11. @ Wanderingweslshman

    serious question

    do you think he might resign after the debate ?

    set out his partys stall , then admit he needs to step down for the good of the party ?

    ————————————————————————–

    In a few words, not a chance.

    Gordon is no quitter, and will fight to the end. He has got this far despite 90% of the national media being against him, and a campaign against him that has been border line character assassination.

    I hope he stays, fights on and wins. Go Gordon!!

  12. Wanderingwelshman

    serious question
    do you think he might resign after the debate ? Set out his partys stall , then admit he needs to step down for the good of the party ?

    It would be political suicide for GB & Lab. If he resigns now he loses all advantages of being the incumbant PM. It would cause political havoc. HMQ would have to appoint another PM immediately. Lab would be going through a Leadership crisis with no leader. GB can’t just step aside and appoint his own new leader. HMQ could well send for the Leader of the Opposition DC to be a caretaker PM until the elction results are known. The public would castigate the Labour party and rightly so. GB called the election and must wait to hear the public’s verdict. GB is a fighter and a week is a long time in politics.

  13. New Guardian/ICM poll of top 42 Lib Dem marginals being reported
    w w w.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/28/liberal-democrats-labour-marginals-poll

    “In the 42 seats in which the party came second in 2005 and which it could take on a swing of 6% or less, Lib Dem support is now 39%. That is four points ahead of the Conservatives on 35% and 21 points ahead of Labour, on 18%.”

    Worth a read.

  14. There’s an interesting debate we’re not having.

    If Cameron loses next week the Conservative Party is finished. Lab, alone or with the LibDems, will introduce PR.

    There will never be a majority Tory govt again. Their only chance is coalition with a Party to the Left of them which means the Tories move to the Left.

    The Conservative Party is in the fight of its life.

  15. @FRANKG

    John Major resigned as Tory leader in 1995 but stayed on a PM (and was then reelected as leader) so GB could resign as Labour leader and be caretaker PM for the remainder of the election campaign.

    However there is no chance at all the he’d do that. Labour would have no chance at all of a reasonable result and he would end his career in utter failure far worse than Michael Foot. The dignified way would be to lose fighting. John Major lost badly but was not personally humiliated.

  16. Harris giving ‘others’ 13%?

  17. I think this will clearly have an impact in improving ratings of Con and LD but there will be LAB voters who were considering voting who will merely stay away on polling day rather than than vote for the alternates. The public are never fooled – this is a real foot in the mouth from GB which may be the end of him in two weeks time, but voters will not be surprised or greatly moved by his ‘private’ comments. We know what he (and indeed all the others) are like despite the shiny ties and over the top sincerity. I predict CON will gain 310ish seats and needDIB support to form a coalition – Clegg knows the only way he can get anywhere in his political life is to be a coalite – no chance of getting even a minority government particularly under the current FPTF system. Looking forward to Gordon in tomorrows debate with Dimbleby and Paxman spitting him out as chips on Fri.

  18. The decent thing for Brown to do at this stage is resign.

    GB has caused many loyals to desert the party, his ineptness been the catalyst for national economic turmoil and his non existant social skills/ lack of ability to effectively communicate with ordinary voters/ unblemished arrogance have all been adequetly demonstrated today.

    Gordon Brown is clearly holding Labour’s head under water.

  19. @ Ian Mckay

    I posted similar this afternoon. If the CONS can’t get a majority out of this, 13 years and the wost ever recession they never will.

  20. @ Ian McKay

    The consequences of the Election of a Lib/Lab Coalition could be spectacular.

    I think the introduction of serious PR would be the end of big parties long-term. Under FPTP the only way to get influence is to form large groups. PR turns all that on its head, and I think that the large ‘Big Tent’ parties could break up into smaller grouping.

    This is why I am so keen for people to vote tactically – a working Conservative majority would spoil the best chance in a generation to change our political landscape fundamentally.

    This is also why I am disappointed NC seems to be doing his best to ruin the chances of a Lib Lab coalition. That coalition is the best chance he will ever have to get what I thought the Lib Dems wanted most of all.

  21. The apology is too late. I fear this is too damaging to be put right by an apology. People tend to say what they mean and mean what they say. Its unfortunate but this will plague Labour all the way now. The only real debate now is to what extent the other two will benefit and whether Cameron can gain an outright majority.

  22. Garry K

    The reason NC is currently dry on a Lib-Lab coalition is self explanatory.

  23. @George Gardner

    “The reason NC is currently dry on a Lib-Lab coalition is self explanatory.”

    Sorry, that one’s lost on me. Could you explain?

  24. @ George Gardner

    I am somewhat baffled by your cryptic comment, like Colin Green.

    I would really appreciate more information from you!

  25. @Andrew
    John Major resigned as Tory leader in 1995 but stayed on a PM (and was then reelected as leader) so GB could resign as Labour leader and be caretaker PM for the remainder of the election campaign.

    Not the same circumstances. John Major was not in an election. He was facing a leadership challenge whilst PM.

    Either way it just isn’t going to happen IMO. GB and therefore Lab would lose all credibility. If suddenly he was incapacitated and his condition was regarded as too long term for him to carry out his parliamentary duties then he could be replaced as PM and presumably as party leader. I am not sure how the Lab party constitution works regarding this. Besides to have an unelected PM replaced by yet another unelected Lab politician. I am not sure other Lab prospective candidates would sacrifice their chance of the leadership by standing aside to give a rival such a tremendrous advantage. What of the Lab election mantra about ‘Vote Brown for a safe pair of hands on the economy’. Strategy shattered!

  26. Well there we have it Gordon Brown ( even if he is human) thinks a Gillian Duffy is a bigot and by implication a sizeable proportion of Labour voters are bigots too. He may be human but he is not an ordinary person but a potential PM – not good. He even tried to blame Sky ( for the mic) and his aides for letting him talk to her …although I thought this was part Labour’s new election strategy – to show he’s human – well they certainly hit the bulls eye there!.

    His apology was just a joke . I heard what was said in his conversation with her – there was no “misunderstanding”.
    I think this will turn off quite a bit of his core vote. Whether they switch or just stay home is another matter but my guess this is using Gordon’s own words -a disaster for Labour
    Turn the lights out Gordon on when you go.

  27. Ian Mckay,

    “…the LibDems, will introduce PR.

    There will never be a majority Tory govt again. Their only chance is coalition with a Party to the Left of them which means the Tories move to the Left.

    The Conservative Party is in the fight of its life.”

    OR- PR allows people to more freely vote for ANY party they wish knowing they’ll achieve REAL power and the voters choose BNP, English democrats, UKIP etc in MUCH larger numbers.

    You never know. Italy has a very large right wing majority, as does the EU, both under PR type systems.

    Careful what you wish for…

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