Populus and YouGov polls
Populus tonight has topline figures of CON 36%(+4), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 28%(-3). Changes are from their poll a week ago which showed the Conservatives with just a 1 point lead over the Lib Dems, so it supports the slight Tory recovery and slight falling back of the Lib Dems we’ve had over the last week (in fact, along with the rather odd Ipsos MORI poll, it’s the highest Conservative score since before the first debate).
Populus have also conducted a poll in Scotland, which has topline figures of CON 16%, LAB 37%, LDEM 24%, SNP 19%. Like the YouGov Scottish poll at the weekend it shows comparatively little change in Scotland since the last general election. It doesn’t look as though we should expect many seats to change hands North of the border.
YouGov meanwhile has figures of CON 33%(nc), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 28%(-1), and clearly there is no significant change from yesterday’s figures. Despite appearances, the trends here are not really contradictory – they need to be seen in the context of the fieldwork dates. A week ago when Populus’s last poll was conducted YouGov was showing the Conservatives on 31% and the Lib Dems on 34%, so both are reporting the same pattern… it’s just the difference between a weekly and a daily poll.
UPDATE: ComRes’s rolling poll for ITV and the Indy has figures tonight of CON 33%(+1), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 29%(-2). The changes are within the margin of error, but like YouGov’s poll tonight those slight movements are away from the Lib Dems and towards Labour.
Anthony, Thank you for your correction.
Colin, you had understood it correctly, my apologies.
We’ll see but I don’t think this will harm Gordon too much.
It was a bad mistake yes, but having heard the episode on the radio, the press have built it up to be expected/
So Clegg made a mistake, now Gordon… Dave#s turn next. The debate and policy far more important. He might lose some votes, but might just gain a few too.
I think our red friends are running around as if their there were a fox in the hen coup.It is not so much the “bigot” comment more that he blamed his aids for putting him in a “dangerous” situation. No we saw the real Brown. Enough said!
@Jaytee
Quite true. I don’t personally don’t really care about immigration, but a lot of voters do. The issue is perhaps symptomatic of how Labour (and the Conservatives) have triangulated themselves away from the values of their core vote. Thus, gains by the likes of the BNP. Immigration has traditionally been more of an issue for the poor, as it’s their jobs and wages which are squeezed, and it’s been a source of contention for as long as anyone can remember. People used to complain about the Hugenots, after all. Perhaps, though, this isn’t the apocalypse, the Tories won’t end up winning outright, and we’ll get some voting reform. That way we’ll get a left-leaning Labour that looks after it’s core voters, and they’ll have a chance to vote for a party that represents them for a change.
But what does it say in the East European press?
We’ll see but I don’t think this will harm Gordon too much.
It was a bad mistake yes, but having heard the episode on the radio, the media have built it up, as to be expected.
So Clegg made a mistake, now Gordon… Cameron’s turn next. The debate and policy far more important. He might lose some votes, but might just gain a few too.
My impression – (living in another Lib Dem/Labour marginal) is that Labour is struggling to hang on to its core working class vote. I think that this incident copuld damage it amongst those core voters who are already dissatisfied.
Labour seems to be doing better among the public sector salariat – judging by the posters that are appearing in affluent areas. That vote will regard the incident as a storm in a teacup.
The second category of Labour supporter is rather more likely to appear on here than the first.
@Aleksander
Well Spain are number II on the list. Irlenad and Portugal will be very nervous. Then it will be Italy. Once those dominos fall, UK will be next in line…
Still… we are not there yet.
Downgrades coming to a place near you. very soon.
Clegg’s just come out, backing Brown.
Right move.
Along the lines of “if everything politicians said about campaigning was broadcast, we’d all be very embarressed. He’s gone out of his way to apologise. That is that, as far as I’m concerned.
He’s a canny politician Clegg in my opinion.
@Ash (and Martin),
The fact that there are a few naturalised Britons (who are after all a consequence of immigration in their own right) and a few children of foreign based Britons in the figures doesn’t make them invalid. There was a boom in the 90s and 2000s and the massive majority of the employment that resulted from it went to workers from Eastern Europe, and to a lesser extent other immigrants. We can’t ever be certain of the precise figures but it is disingenous to argue that the uncertainty changes the overall picture.
It is also beyond dispute that increased population puts a strain on the system, particularly schooling, housing and health services, that is borne most heavily by working class voters.
None of this is bigotry, merely fact. Mrs Duffy was not being a bigot, and the Prime Minister himself has admitted as much.
@NeilA
” When the question of job creation comes up (which it will), Cameron merely has to point out, nicely and without a hint of bigotry, that of all the jobs created since Labour came to power, 81% have been taken by people born outside the UK. ”
—
My son is one such and half my family are UK citizens born outside the UK. In fact 1/3 of the people you mention are UK citizens born outside the UK.
100,000s of British diplomats, multinational employees, Armed Forces staff, British Council staff, etc. etc. have children when serving abroad.
More manipulation of statistics by the Tories (I happen to know where that figure was concocted).
EOIN Portugal was downgraded yesterday.
@Greengrass,
Evidence please, both of the number of foreign-born children to Britons posted overseas and of your allegation of concoction.
For what its worth, those figures came from Stephanie Flanders in a blog post a couple of weeks ago. Another bigoted woman, perhaps?
-It seems to me that it will be cheaper to bail out Greece than reverse the economic recovery world-wide
Question to all:
If Gillian had said “What about all these blacks coming into the country?”, would everybody feel that GB’s comments were entirely justifiable about bigotry?
@Theresa,
Only if alongside the bailout are a completely new set of economic policies, and virtual martial law to enforce them on the population.
@Adam,
As an Irishman that news does not console me. I will get my coat…..
All this sanctimoniousness. We all think things we don’t say, and most of us think things that are far nastier than what Brown said. He was just caught out by a mic not turned off.
Given the amount of stress he is under, I’m not at all surprised that in the privacy of his own space he would vent. I doubt he really even thought that about the woman – he was simply stressed. Hardly shocking or surprising.
I don’t think it will do any damage to him whatsoever.
My mother has just told me that she’s resigning her Labour Party membership. She’s been a member for nearly 50 years, plods round distributing leaflets every election, organises fundraisers. But Mrs. Duffy could have been her and my mum has had enough. Even though I’ll vote Tory or Lib Dem this time around, I’m very very sad for my mum. She’s a good, lovely person.
Honestly think a bit of calm is needed. This has not been a particularly edifying episode for anyone, but I certainly don’t think it is a game changer at all. In fact I don’t think it will move the polls one tenth of a point. As to the fears expressed by some that it might alter GB’s state of mind and make him perform worse tomorrow night? Well,
1) It won’t
2) If it does and it is therefore proven that he can be distracted away from the really important issues of the economy by one unfortunate slip then he shouldn’t be PM. And people have largely already made up their minds on that question one way or another anyway.
@Martin,
Well yes, because “Blacks” is a racial term.
If she had said “what about all these French people coming into the country” then I’d say no.
OECD figures only have Mexico with more of its people outside the country than the UK; UK has 3.2 million people overseas. So if you are racist and think foreigners are evil and lazy then we are stuffing uyp other countries far more than foreigners here. If, like me, you see them as desirable and hardworking then we are blessing the world.
Worth noting that everyone wants to migrate to Australia (ok, not everyone) but gosh 50% of all Australians are either born overseas or have one parent born overseas. Point? Migrants are good.
-Has anyone seen any twittter posts on todays polls
@JAMES LUDLOW
It does seem to me that it could hit LAB core vote very hard – there has been a constant distancing by new labour over the past 13 years and this could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
But we will only know when polls start to come out.
If it were to result in loss of core vote i have a feeling mostly it would not turn out rather than switch.
Floating voters could well be turned of too.
NeilA
“Evidence please, both of the number of foreign-born children to Britons posted overseas and of your allegation of concoction.”
—
h ttp://www.fullfact.org/blogdetail/?id=16&sel=blog
Stephanie Flanders is not perfect – just nearly so
New thread available
My son used ot have 5 poles in his class… one tibetan a bulgarian a french boy and one czech. In addition he had a little english boy and an italian in his class.
Now all he has are two poles. Even the sassenach have deserted him.
Maybe someone should tell ms Duffy that they are flocking home…
All this talk of this being GB’s great demise is absolutely beyond ridiculous.
I know it’s not exactly objective data, but listening to LBC Radio, there are lots of people saying this if anything, it’s made them like the man more.
Polly I utterly and totally agree with you. The trouble is that people can get very emotianal and defend him saying that it is normal. The thing is that he is the Prime Minister and must conduct himself in a dignified manner weather the cameras are on him or not. Time will tell weather this will be the end or not.
Well “bigotgate” is a brief distraction before the main event the 3rd debate on the economy.
The only movement in the polls since the first debate is static noise,
Viewing figures tomorrow could exceed 15 million, if not the country has fallen back to sleep in resignation.
My own view of the 2nd debate was basically a no score draw.
I felt that Clegg had his opportunity to make it decisive, I have watched it a few times and the young man fluffed his lines. He needed more patience and authority in delivery to have taken the Lib Dems to the next level.Easy for me to crit.
You know the debates have been compared to reality TV. Those of us exposed to WWF or is it WWE these days, might find professional wrestling more similar featuring a referee/moderator blind to what he doesn’t to see and getting into the action on the blind side.. I think Dimbles will be rather different to Boulton.
Like most elections the economy outweighs any other issue. I don’t want to go into the various issues and differences in approach other than broadly.
Being brief: there are 3 things of substance that will move the polls. 1. Who is more believable and trustworthy. 2. Who is going to leave the voter with more money in their pockets 3. Who is going to deal with the deficit most effectively.
GB has form; DC would be +15% up in the poll and favourite but hasn’t been able to master the ring or does he want to take the fall and win next time round, That brings us to NC who if the Lib Dems are sensible will have Vince Cable up front in the spin room. NC has the most positive message of re-distribution and reflation to deliver. In normal circumstances that should seal the deal.
You can already hear them at it already
@NeilA
—
See also h ttp://www.statscom.org.uk/C_1237.aspx
I have to restrain my high horses, but I would say that I think the end of this “dilemma” will only show the distance between the public and the media.
@ Neil
OK, let’s agree on the racial dimension.
However, let’s just go back to a definition of bigotry I posted earlier “… intolerant of people of different ethnicity, race, or class”.
Eastern Europeans, I contend, are of a certain ethnicity, which Gillian singled out in relation to employment in te UK economy. She expressed a view which I read as stigmatising or blaming East Europeans. This is a bigoted view and from where I’m standing is no different to saying “What about all these blacks coming into the country?”
It is of course possible that we all misunderstood what was said or meant by what appeared to be a nice elderly woman. It is not fair to subject her to questioning about what she really thinks about foreigners. It is also unfair in the circumstances to criticise the PM for his interpretation of what she said, particularly as he has now apologised for it.
I see two victims here: Gillian and GB. That is why it is not a game changer.
I think this Gordon error will just make a lot of voters say ‘there you go – proof that POLITICIANS are all two faced and don’t care’
Whether this will play into the Lib Dem message or the BNP/Greens/Independents message only time will tell, but with the polls as close as they are it will have an impact.
-new thread posted
@Greengrass,
Thanks for the link. It appears that the article you linked is “pre-Flanders” (ie she had crunched the numbers and reduced the original spurious 98% figure to the more realistic but still uncertain 81% which I quoted).
Are there any figures for the proportions of non-UK born Britons between naturalised and “always British but born abroad”? Given the (small) size of our armed forces and diplomatic corps these days, I would imagine the former group has the lion’s share but I honestly don’t know.
NEIL A:
I have read the article by Stephanie Flanders that you mentioned linked below if others are interested to read further.
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/parties_and_issues/8634469.stm
“Still, it looks like there’s been net job creation for “British workers” since 1997. In fact, the employment rate for UK-born people of working age at the end of 2009 was 0.4% higher than at the start of 1997.”
I have long wished that all immigrants could be given a 6 month holiday – all at once – and we would then see just how dependent the UK economy is on them !!
The first to complain about a lack of services. etc., would be those who say there are too many immigrants
This just released from Gordon Brown to Labour Party members – at least they’re moving quickly! What, with a visit to Mrs D’s house and eveything …
‘As you may know, I have apologised to Mrs Duffy for remarks I made in the back of the car after meeting her on the campaign trail in Rochdale today. I would also like to apologise to you.
I know how hard you all work to fight for me and the Labour Party, and to ensure we get our case over to the public. So when the mistake I made today has so dominated the news, doubtless with some impact on your own campaigning activities, I want you to know I doubly appreciate the efforts you make.
Many of you know me personally. You know I have strengths as well as weaknesses. We all do. You also know that sometimes we say and do things we regret. I profoundly regret what I said this morning.
I am under no illusions as to how much scorn some in the media will want to heap upon me in the days ahead.
But you, like I, know what is at stake in the days ahead and so we must redouble our campaigning efforts to stop Britain returning to a Tory Party that would do so much damage to our economy, our society and our schools and NHS, not least in places like Rochdale.
The worst thing about today is the hurt I caused to Mrs Duffy, the kind of person I came into politics to serve. It is those people I will have in my mind as I look ahead to the rest of the campaign.
You will have seen me in one context on the TV today. I hope tomorrow you see once more someone not just proud to be your leader, but also someone who understands the economic challenges we face, how to meet them, and how that improves the lives of ordinary families all around Britain.’
@Martin,
Are the North Welsh bigots for worrying about the threat of English incomers snuffing out Cymraeg? Are the Cornish bigots for being angry that they can’t afford homes because of all the retired “English” people living in their villages? If someone in North Wales hated a man because despite being born in Bangor and speaking Welsh fluently, he had black skin, or if a Cornishman resented the fact that an ethnic Chinese from Camborne moved in next door to him in Redruth then I’d call it bigotry.
Just been speaking to the vicar in my Tory village
in our very Tory constituency. To quote him –”I’ve
usually voted Conservative but now watching this I
may well change and support Labour—for who is
without sin let him throw the first stone”
It’s a funny old world”
So bang goes the “sincerity” vote then-and the “get what you see” vote.
You know -the ones that get tagged on at the end …..
” Gordon is not a bully-he is tough on himself and drives those who work for him hard-it’s because he wants to get things done. Gordon’s values mean everything to him…..he is s*****e -what you see is what you g*t with Gordon.
I’ve listened to the whole saga. I think the problem for GB is not that he used the B word, but the obvious contempt he had for Gillian Duffy and her views. It was clear that he felt that 5 minutes of his valuable time had been wasted talking to her. “She claimed to be a Labour voter” may be the most damaging thing he said. Meanwhile some on here think he shoudl be congratulated for “speaking out against a bigot” – but he didn’t, did he! He muttered in private about it and then got caught on camera with his head in his hands!
This comes in a week where GB’s spindoctors said he was going to get away from meetings with Labour supporters and start talking to “real people”. Mrs Duffy was clearly a “real person” – in fact she has pretty typical (yes, possibly mildly bigoted – but wondering if an influx of immigrants might have something to do with unemployment is hardly something very controversial except perhaps in ultra-PC circles), views, and she did not try and shout GB down or anything. Effectively he blamed the hapless “Sue” for daring to bring such a person into his presence
I said a couple of days ago that many working class people feel a bit betrayed by Labour and feel they are not being listened to anymore. Hence if another party, whether it be Lib Dem, Green or even BNP, comes along and DOES listen, then they will often win at council level even in the most deprived wards.
It just highlights that Gordon Brown the politician can give quite good answers and be very polite to someone to their face, but in reality holds them in deep contempt. People always supect thsi about politicians of all varieties, and GB has just been caught…
I have no idea how this will play out, but the more I reflect on it, the more I think it could be pretty negative for GB, especially as he likes to present himself as the “man of the people” compare to “toffish” Cameron and Clegg
@neil A
Yes a Welsh person who hates English people purely because the nature of the country of birth is bigotry.
The fact that some groups like Meibion Glyndwr chose to resort to arson again English people’s homes shows how extreme this bigotry can be.
Reading a lot of the bloggs regarding GB’s error, people seem to be talking about the Lib Dem vote increasing but yet no mention of the Tory vote increasing. it is not inconceivable that Tories may also gain out of all of this.
Before anyone gets angry with me and accuses me of bigotry, I would just say that I personally supported the decision to allow Eastern European citizens of the EU to live and work in Britain. To have said “French, yes. German, yes. Polish, NO!” would have struck me as very wrong.
But if you’re in the position Mrs Duffy is in, it is not unreasonable to have concerns about the effects of that influx. It seemed to me that Brown was angry at her for not agreeing with him.
Neil A
“if a Cornishman resented the fact that an ethnic Chinese from Camborne moved in next door to him in Redruth then I’d call it bigotry.”
When I worked there, any resident of Camborne would be the recipient of bigotry & racial abuse if he came anywhere near Redruth….and vice versa.
@Alan,
So the death of the Welsh language wouldn’t trouble you if you were from Gywnedd? (Or doesn’t trouble you if you are?!)
@Colin,
Not for nothing did I choose those two delightful reservoirs of fine Cornish genetics…..