Populus tonight has topline figures of CON 36%(+4), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 28%(-3). Changes are from their poll a week ago which showed the Conservatives with just a 1 point lead over the Lib Dems, so it supports the slight Tory recovery and slight falling back of the Lib Dems we’ve had over the last week (in fact, along with the rather odd Ipsos MORI poll, it’s the highest Conservative score since before the first debate).

Populus have also conducted a poll in Scotland, which has topline figures of CON 16%, LAB 37%, LDEM 24%, SNP 19%. Like the YouGov Scottish poll at the weekend it shows comparatively little change in Scotland since the last general election. It doesn’t look as though we should expect many seats to change hands North of the border.

YouGov meanwhile has figures of CON 33%(nc), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 28%(-1), and clearly there is no significant change from yesterday’s figures. Despite appearances, the trends here are not really contradictory – they need to be seen in the context of the fieldwork dates. A week ago when Populus’s last poll was conducted YouGov was showing the Conservatives on 31% and the Lib Dems on 34%, so both are reporting the same pattern… it’s just the difference between a weekly and a daily poll.

UPDATE: ComRes’s rolling poll for ITV and the Indy has figures tonight of CON 33%(+1), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 29%(-2). The changes are within the margin of error, but like YouGov’s poll tonight those slight movements are away from the Lib Dems and towards Labour.


759 Responses to “Populus and YouGov polls”

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  1. @John B Dick
    Many thanks for your comment – embarassingly kind
    :)

    With regards to what you have said, there is much I would agree with you completely.

    I am a traditionalist and see nothing wrong with being proud of your roots and traditions. I am very much in favour of the UK as a union and would not like it to break into separate independant areas. Unfortunately unless we can pull tegether that is how I see it is trending. However I do accept that England is not one entity as it is treated at the moment. If polls can be broken down into regions why cannot England. At the moment London has it’s assembly already.

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  2. @Ian McKay

    How dare you copy and paste labour Party Propaganda on this site.

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  3. A little while ago, on a seperate thread, about the last Cons. PEB, I said something about Martin’s First Rule of Politics

    NEVER, NEVER, NEVER blame the voter.

    Am starting to wonder whether I should do Lotto this weekend ;-)

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  4. Don’t blame yourself Polly, we’re annoyed with you for coming back too!

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  5. As some have pointed out it is anyone’s guess which parties the very possible haemorraging of the remainder of the WWC vote from Labour will benefit.
    Anyone from Libs/UKIP/Tories/BNP/EDP I should imagine.Probably not the Greens tho who will always remain something for the middle class/students/hippies for most working-class people.

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  6. As some have pointed out it is anyone’s guess which parties the very possible haemorraging of the remainder of the WWC vote from Labour will benefit.
    Anyone from Libs/UKIP/Tories/BNP/EDP I should imagine.Probably not the Greens tho who will always remain something for the middle class/students/hippies for most working-class people.

    Regrettably I think we all know which party this will favour in the area of the country, where any major local effect will be felt. Even more reason to make sure you present Others with a reasonable percentage in your figures.

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  7. Eoin Clarke
    22% of people list immigration as important.

    I wonder how many are the children of first and second generation immigrants.

    In Scotland there is a significant body of opinion in one constituency with many asylum seekers, and more widely through the churches, which is concerned about the treatment of asylum seekers especially those with children.

    The press gave some exposure to three campaigning pupils, one of whom I am told is highly articulate and now activly campaigning.

    The concept of deference is not understood by working class teenage girls in Glasgow. It is quite some time since I met anyone who “knew their place.”

    The former Labour FM had the benefit of what diplomats call “a full and frank exchange of views” when he, a former teacher, met staff and pupils in a school which had lost a family in a UKBA “Dawn Raid.”

    Mrs Duffy is a cuddly old granny by comparison. Gordon Brown does indeed need to get out more.

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  8. Having glanced at previous threads I noted one which wondered if the remark would come up in the debate. Unfortunately a precedent has been set.

    Far too much was made of a comment along the lines that ‘if the law required B&B owners to act against their religious beliefs by allowing a homosexual couple to sleep together in what isthe B&B’s private home – then the law should be looked at again’ This was intensely siezed upon and raked over by certain parties and their spin-doctors.

    This remark by a party leader, having just been given tea and having had his smile for the public opportunity, was to say the very least ‘unworthy’. Whether Sarah could have stopped him if she had been there is really immaterial. It is what he believed and is an insight into his personality. Apologies afterwards really mean nothing. Whether other parties will take the same opportunity to extract a little ‘recompense’ for the way the other remark was exploited – yes (sigh) they probably will.

    Wouldn’t it be nice if the election was about the long term policies of all parties to get us out of the economic mess. As one poster has said already, that seems the only topic they won’t discuss.

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  9. Folks,

    Make no mistake about it, this will damage Labour seriously. The lady in question was of my generation and clearly from the life long Labour hardcore.

    The incident proved many issues surrounging GB and his leadership. Labour will suffer because of Gordon Brown. Their single greatest liability and vote loser. A good -3% is a fair probability. Lib Dems, Tories, Ukip and BNP will be laughing.

    Kinnock’s Sheffield Ralley moment in ’92 absolutley incensed me- that was small beer in comparison to today. Glad I desertrd the party when I did- very glad!

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