Monday round-up

There are four new polls tonight – YouGov in the Sun, Opinium in the Express and ICM in the Guardian. ComRes is not officially out yet, but the Guardian are reporting it here. That gives us:

YouGov/Sun CON 33%(-1), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1)
Opinium/Express CON 34%(+2), LAB 25%(-1), LDEM 28%(-1)
ICM/Guardian CON 33%(-2), LAB 28%(+2), LDEM 30%(-1)
ComRes/ITV/Independent CON 32%(-2), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 31%(+2)

Opinium show a slight movement towards the Conservatives since their last poll, but without any political weighting I would expect them to be rather more erratic anyway. The other three polls all show the Conservatives falling. Again it is just one day’s polls, and the movements are within the margin of error, but it does create the impression that the slight Tory recovery towards the end of last week is fading.


544 Responses to “Monday round-up”

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  1. I want to join this new ‘Hung Party’ – need a phone no or address – can anyone help please ?

  2. Impressive consistency between all four polls in that despite the three parties’ shares being so close, all four polls show them ranked in the same order.

  3. express poll looks wildly out

    anotehr rogue poll ?

    others closer to what we all see to generally agree is hung parliament territory ?

  4. LD must still be laughing.

    How did the pre opinion tests at Tory and Labour not pick up the willingness of people to say- had enough / bored / expenses / Iraq Afganistan is illegal / sick of being in a safe seat / Obama won cant we do the same / I’m sick of targets and pointless busy policies in the electorate?

  5. The polls are impressively consistent with each other. The Conservative dip (if there is one?) is so marginal that it just levels the horses and riders behind the tape ready for Thursday’s gallop!

  6. These are awful polls for both Labour and Conservatives.

    Labour doing so badly doesn’t surprise me because I always thought they were going to do worse than most commentators were expecting, but the Tories being unable to get above 35% is much more unexpected.

  7. Anthony! Get with it and update the UKPR Polling average :P

  8. @EOIN

    is there a key differential between regional swing ..and marginal swing ?

    not sure if I have made myself clear with this

    because we know that a regional swing ..say the south west to liberal ..can be offset by a marginal swing in say a bristol seat to say blue in a seat where they put in the foot soldiers ?

  9. It’s clear from everything, however partisan people on here are there is no clear manadate for any party. This election has been coming for some time, the system needs to change.

    @ Ian Kemp

    Do a search for “Hang em” or “Hung Britain” you should be able to find out more :)

  10. How many polls now is this with Lab in third?

  11. -U.S. here watching your election with interest
    -Are 4 polls identified above only polls out tonight?

  12. These are surprsing – all within MOE but there is something consistent about them – Con share falling off over weekend.

    My assumption is that the LD vote is soft and the Tory vote harder. Assume that the LD vote is strengthened by Thu, I would still assumme that it will fall off again by 6 May. The Conservatives must be worried about their apparent inability to move beyond 35 – I would expect them to strengthen by polling day. Taken together – C 36, LD 29 by polling day with Lab at 27-29, and enough turbulence in individual seats to push the Tories to near 290/300

  13. Better for Labour, Worse for the Tories, Gap 4.66% (Sorry ignoring Opinium)
    Libs must still be delighted, but all three parties neck and neck.

  14. Finally decided to have a punt at Richard O’s suggestion.

    The odds on a Lab majority seem crazily long especially after today’s slight narrowing – I got 28/1. Although it’s not my preferred electoral outcome in ideological terms, my modest disappointment if it happens will be significantly mitigated by the £1,000 credit to my bank account.

    I will also buy Eoin a bottle of whatever he fancies!

  15. With numbers close together one would be tempted to say how well poised things are going into the last 10 days, but of course this is nonsense. A lead of only 2-3 points at this stage is utterly disastrous for the Tories. As has been said many, many times on these threads, anything short of a majority for Cameron will be seen as failure and for that he needs two things: 38+ for the Tories and well under 30 for Labour. And that’s without even factoring in the LibDems in the 30s.

    Any kind of performance from Brown on Thursday will tighten the polls even further and push Labour back up to second place – who knows maybe even into a small lead.

  16. Still no sign of the Lib Dem surge dropping off…so it’s much more than a spike or bump. Unless the hung parliament threat starts to gain traction, what might happen to change these polls results over the course of the campaign?

  17. There are two things to consider in the next week or so, that is where the LibDem votes are going to be. I would still maintain that tactical voting will play a big part. I suppose it is a matter of whether the electorate, or infact a sigificant amount want to give lab/cons a bloody nose. The other thing will be the impact of thursdays debate. A strong performance by Brown could put labour back into office or a poor performance and strong oneby david cameron could put the tories into office.

    There is also the issue of postal votes. They would have been recieved today and if most people sent thiers before thursday then the debate and the subsequant polls will be irrelevant. Even the exit polls on may 6th may not be helpful.

    I could not say with any confidence where this election is going and i am sure neither can the pollsters.

  18. The public are really trying to fool the pollsters….. Expect LD to get about 38% or so. Still a balanced parliament though. Why? Because pollsters have to weigh the respondents – and that would not include only 9% of gays supporting the Tories, when a month ago it was 38%. They don’t include the 150,000 member pressure group that polled their members and got PR as their No.1 choice as what was important in this election. It does not include the facebook poll, where young people voted for the LD by around 58% or the twitter poll that had it even higher. It does not specifically count women, when 58% now say they will vote LD and they do not specifically poll the 21-35 age group which are 46% for the LD. Finally, the suppressed poll showing that 49% would vote LD if they thought they could win, with no follow up polls since to see if they now think the LD can win.

    These are just some of the huge changes going on in the country for this election. 30% say they still have to make their mind up, up to 15% are going to vote for the smaller parties and independents. There are more independents standing in this election than ever before. The differences in this election are to numerous to count. Pollsters are not geared up to this, and hence the 33/33/33 spilt. It’s a sign of pollster confusion and shows they cannot cope with the changes brought by this election.

    Expect surprises and shocks galore this coming May 6th/May 7th, nothing we think we know is what is going on our there.

  19. The main impression I get from these polls is that the Labour vote is stuck at a maximum of 28%. (whatever they do or say). The Conservative vote cannot really get beyond 35% at the moment although may do so at some point, and the LibDems could certainly lead again on national vote. Disappointing polls for the Conservatives who would have hoped that 34% was their new low. The plusses for them remain some of the marginals and the greater certainty of their vote. I believe they will win the most seats but they need a good final debate.

  20. Yep, the Thatcher effect is still killing the Tories as soon as it gets important. the country really does have a long memory for her.

  21. Add in the “Flirt with Clegg, marry Cameron” narrative and I’d expect a further narrowing in the next few days.
    (By the way does Mandleson realise that leaves “avoid” Brown in the popular game???)

  22. @ UK_John

    “Expect surprises and shocks galore this coming May 6th/May 7th, nothing we think we know is what is going on our there.”

    I agree

  23. Another spread of no real change polls. I’m on tenterhooks waiting for something to move. Are all the undecideds waiting for Thursday’s final debate? have all the don’t-votes that are going to be persuaded been persuaded already. Surely it can’t go on like this for 10 more days.

    i224.photobucket.com/albums/dd161/smart51/pollsaprmay-1.jpg

  24. you gov poll, says labour +1 yet they were on 28 yesterday??

  25. My perception is that talk of the “threat” of a hung parliament is playing badly. People who want electoral reform, and there are a lot of them about, want a hung parliament as this is the quickest way to achieve it. Might be the most painful as well, but ripping a plaster can sting a bit.

  26. @ INTERESTING

    Thanks – ‘hang-em’ is interesting – mostly, but not exclusively, recommending LibDems.

  27. Is Com Res still a rolling poll? If so is the 1st day’s worth of figures?

  28. @ Bruce N
    “How many polls now is this with Lab in third?”

    Irrelevent I would say at this stage.
    IMHO they will not be third on May 6th and they won’t poll less than 28%.

    The way things are looking, even if they were third, it could be with a final scoreline of

    Con – 32%
    Lib – 31%
    Lab – 30%.

    In which case, do you think they would be bothered ?

  29. Gotta love these polls, my money has been on a hung parliament since Dec 2009 at 3:1 :)

  30. Anyone remember the ComRes “humdinger” from last week – what was it 35 – 26 – 26? Seems a long time ago now…

  31. In 1997 the tories tried to win votes by conjouring the image of the winter of discontent in 1978. They tried to do the same with the cabin crew strike. Labour do the same warning of a return to thatcherite policies. Right or wrong it seems to work and sends people to the Liberal Democrats, maybe people just dont want either.

  32. I agree with uk_john to a small extent. I’m wondering too whether pollsters weighting methods are still adequate given some of the fairly major changes in support over the campaign, particularly those in favour of the LDs.

    Can we get some clarification on this from Anthony?

  33. Andrew Holden – Exactly, it really is splitting hairs to see a result of 32/31/28 for instance as a “win” or “lose” for anyone.

  34. @ dazzle
    “you gov poll, says labour +1 yet they were on 28 yesterday??”

    Correct.
    It also says ” Con -2 “, but Cons were on 34% yesterday, down from 35% on Sat.

  35. Jack: “How did the pre opinion tests at Tory and Labour not pick up the willingness of people to say- had enough / bored / expenses / Iraq Afganistan is illegal / sick of being in a safe seat / Obama won cant we do the same / I’m sick of targets and pointless busy policies in the electorate?”

    But put it this way:-

    One of the great areas of public discontent over policy has been immigration. Yet, the swing has been to a party even keener on immigration than Labour.

    At the last debate, we saw Gordon Brown attacking the LibDems for being weak on immigration.

    Short of clocks melting, this election could hardly be more surreal.

  36. The Lib Dem shares in these polls are for me still astonishing given their stance on the Euro and the nations general indifference/contempt for it. Despite what anyone in their team might say, they really can’t win, they don’t have the required concentration of support. So whilst the anti labour sentiment is there it isn’t translating into a decision to remove them.

    The hard Tory support wall seem to get hit at about 32%, the Labour one at about 28%, that is 60%. Now if we assume that the ‘Others will take 7-10%, that leaves the Lib Dems with 30-33% max. The anti Labour sentiment therefore could end up working in their favour, and we could well end up with a PM that has the smallest popular mandate from the public in history. Laughing stock? Not half

  37. From a Grauniad twitterer:
    “ICM/Gdn say 64% are 10/10 certain to vote, that is 7 points higher than similar poll in 2005 making 70% plus turnout v.likely”

    Not entirely unexpected, but again makes me wonder if pollsters weighting are still adequate if they aren’t adjusting things as the situation develops.

  38. @Eoin (7.49) previous thread

    “You are unlikey to see a 34% ever again for them. How far it falls back let us all wait and see…..”

    Eoin,
    I doubt that many people saw that 34% figure as being anything other than a value at the high end of the MOE. Even as a Lib Dem I felt that our highest position was on average 31%. As we are still polling 29 – 30% imo the drop is 2% at the most. A good show by NC on Thursday could claw back that 3%. IMO DC will suffer on Thursday against Brown & Clegg who on the overall economy have similar positions. In addition the LD first £10,000 tax policy will go down well with viewers.

  39. Sue Marsh

    Did you see Sunday Times biog: in between EU postings NC was engaged as lobbyist with a brief from Fred Goodwin (RBS) to push for deregulation?

    Don’t like to engage in ad hominem but surely more will be made of this (thursday perhaps?)

  40. Owain/UK_John,

    People showing radically different voting intentions to those they might have claimed a few weeks ago is absolutely fine in any poll as long as the correct demographic weightings are represented and applied. If a poll (or more precisely a series of polls) is conducted properly then there is no reason to doubt the validity of the results, even if they are extraordinary.

  41. ‘Strong government’ = Thatcher or Blair, whichever is your bogeyman/woman. I don’t think it will win Cameron many converts and could well lose him more.

  42. @Tony Dean

    My nephew (also called Tony) is a watcher on this site and has just e-mailed me.

    Were you involved in the Ryedale byelection in 1986?

  43. Colin:
    Thanks for your interesting charts. Looks like three plateaus to me. Wonder when or of there is going to be a move?
    Pam

  44. @Mitz
    Alright, I was mainly wondering about the weighting by past voting aspect of it and how that plays into things.

  45. Billy Bob – It’s all terribly sad really isn’t it? We build ’em up just to knock ’em down.

  46. @Theresa

    with regards your first question, the answer is yes.

    With reghards to RealClearPolitics, i agree its a brilliant pollitical site. I hate their republican slant, but the utility of it is simply incredible.

  47. ^ And also young voter turnout/first time voters.

  48. Billy Bob,

    The “Clegg was an RBS PR Monkey in a previous life” story came out towards the end of last week, and was greeted with almost universal indifference. Can’t see it gaining any traction now that smears on Clegg and the LDs have been shown to make no difference.

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