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I am in a meeting tonight, so may not be back in time to put up tonight’s figures. We should be expecting YouGov, ComRes, and probably ICM and Opinium. Please use this thread to discuss them, and I’ll update on my return.
And given everyone’s interest why not Saturday voting closing at 8pm?
ComRes poll confirmed from a proper quotable source and not twitter rumor?
@ Scotty Dog
I would have agreed with you before this election campaign – I think pure FPTP is even discredited amongst many Tories despite the fact that they do not want PR. We are all forgetting that there was a Conservative Minority Report from the Jenkins Commission. This recommended 85% FPTP seats and a top-up of 15% by having additonal County Members elected like the Scottish Regional Members in their Parliament. In Scotland the split is 60/40 which gives roughly PR – however 85/15 would not give PR – it would iron out the pro-Labour bias in FPTP and actually give Cons some seats where LDs are over-represented (e.g. Cornwall & SW London). True it would give the LDsa couple of dozen more seats, but that’s nothing compared to AV or AV+ which was the Jenkins Commissions majority report recommendation. I think Cameron could well “dust down” the Conservative minority report as a Con/LidDem way forward on this without frightening too many Tory horses?
Mike Smithson on politicalbetting.com
I don’t neccessarily agree with FPTP, but people do enjoy a horse race.
No certainty it would be rejected in a referrendum (a poll last year gave 56% in favour of PR)
“There goes the gay vote, possibly as much as 1 in 10 of the electorate.”
Speak for yourself, but some of us aren’t foolish to think the world revolves around sexuality.
What about health, pensions, education, tax…?
My vote is based on the above and other priority issues – I couldn’t care less what a political party’s opinion about sexuality is.
See PoliticsHome, front pages section for confirmation of ComRes poll which is indeed C – 32, LD – 31, Lab – 28
The terrible truth that pollsters won’t tell you is that it’s near impossible to do these type of calculations because LD swings in individual constituencies vary a great deal from UNS. That means that using the UNS to predict seat outcomes is finger in the air stuff. I wish everyone would say that every time they give it a go.
I like the idea of Saturday voting. A lot of other european nations also vote on Saturday,
“And someone thinks 10% of the population is gay?? They have been watching too much Eastenders.”
Even if you prefer to disbelieve that statistic there are well over 10% who will object to discriminating against gay people.
For a start Tony it would be nice if you got my name spelt right!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And just for the record there are dozens upon dozens of people of all political colours on here that give their opinion as to where the polls are going/May go later on and also a final May 6th poll.
Just because my views don’t accord with your there is no need to be offensive with me!
They are MY PREDICTIONS AND A BIT OF FUN!!!!
So its you that should go away and ‘;grouch’ away to your hearts content!
My Prediction stands!
The only Stat Sig trend now is over the time to the election and even then the R2 =0.55 which is borderline.
I’m still saying CLead of 10-15 at GE but the evidence is pointing to a CLead of 8-10 at present.
The ComRes Con 32, Lib Dem 31, Lab 28 is now confirmed by Mike Smithson of Political Betting, who points out that as the Grauniad let it slip, it’s now public domain.
Watching Jeremy Hunt on Campaign Watch on BBC it gives you a clear idea what a misjudged strategic decision it was to raise so prominently the hung parliament issue.
He was asked a million question but could answer any. His only sensible argument was that is there is going to be a change to the electoral system it should be decided by people and not politicians.
I’m not suggesting a CON/LAB pact as such – in some ways it makes more sense than CON/ LD but I doubt even Spinmastergeneral Mandelson could spin away the rationale to the troops. I think the most it would be would be an agreement not to go for a vote of no confidence on a package of legislation in the queens speech around the budget issues.
I think it will almost certainly be LAB/LD.
Only in the unlikely circumstance that they can’t agree (and to my mind that would be a better option for many LABs than admitting the LDs into the tent) would CON get the chance
If they had the chance I am suggesting they would refuse PR (by offering a referendum for example) and would probably bounce it back to LAB if they’re the biggest party.
I agree it’s unlikely they would get past a Queen’s speech but they would have had to by then have brokered some sort of agreement with either LAB or LD that they should govern on an issue by issue basis (as above probably mostly budget stuff). After one term they would just publish the Euro/ Immigration/ schools reform stuff and challenge the others to vote them down..
It is more likely that that would be an initial tacit agree
ment with LAB than LD.
Taking those comres figures to Electoral Calculus and using a tactical bias to the Lib Dems of : from Cons 4% and from Labour 10% (as always have) gives us
Lib Dems 161
Labour, not Brown? or Cameron gets to make the first move.
Well, just over a week to go, and the electorate is holding its breath.
Things could still move and this is incredibly close.
There hasn’t been an election like this before. There’s not much difference dividing any of the parties, and still all to play for.
I think the Tories must be disappointed in these as they would have hoped for a majority here.
We can all make predictions but this is still way too close to call.
A little bit of encouragemnt for Labour I think, and the Libs must be relieved that the expected crash hasn’t happened either.
How about 31%:31%:31% …? Now that would be a fun prediction!
The general consensus is that 6-8% of the population is gay, although it has to be conceeded that surveying people on the matter is likely to produce lower figures than the reality.
On David Cameron, I think it’s a mistake for him to declare so openly and repeatedly his dislike for a hung parliament, when so many people clearly want it, or at least don’t think that any of the parties deserve to win an outright majority.
On Nick Clegg, I think what he said about GB was fair enough, however, media spin is desperately trying to cut out a nastier narrative for the man and his party. The intensity of their desperate attempts, coupled with Cameron’s protesting against change (ironic, isn’t it?), I think could quite easily see in a backlash. But who knows?
On Gordon Brown, I believe that he is more liked than as is depicted. I find it difficult to believe that people genuinely despise him so personally as the media dictates. Of course it’s my personal opinion, but I don’t think he’s dislikable at all, and in this age of cynicism, who wants another shiny Tony Blair?
Really confused about Comres, has anything been officially confirmed yet?
I think the Tories must be disappointed in these as they would have hoped for a majority here
Understatment of the evening!
This could well be the first election for a long time where the Polls got it completely wrong.
2122The Conservatives have a “very big fight” to win over the next few days, shadow culture secretary Jeremy Hunt says. There is a choice between “decisive” change under the Tories and “uncertain” change under the Lib Dems, he adds.
(BBC election live)
That’s a tory shadow minister identifying this election as tories v the Lib Dems …10 days from polling day. Incredible!
The Lib Dems are the narrative of this election and in a way that is self perpetuating.
1) My daily average poll shows a three day downard trend for the tories from 35 on the 24th to 33 today.
This is confirmed by the scatter graph of polling numbers – dots are pretty tight, but have dipped. On the 24th it was 34,35,36 from the five polls. Today it was 32, 33, 34 from four polls.
2) Lab are steady as they go on 28% – steady since the 23rd.
The dots on the scattergraph are all over the place, though, although that hides the consistent message from the polls today (three out of four at 28%).
3) Lib have a clear upwards trend from 28% on the 22nd to 30 today and yesterday (I’ve discounted the 23% Mori poll). Slightly lower at 29.5% today, so possibly a levelling off.
The scatter diagram shows the same story – four polls on the 24th and 26th at 28,29,30,31 (just different polling companies each time – ignoring MORI).
The averages show a remarkably consistent story, despite there being only one poll on some days.
The story seems to be a slight strengthening of the LD vote at the expense of the Cs. Explains the way the big blue guns are firing, I guess.
Of course there is one possibility that has not been discussed.
Knowing what needs to be done after the election to sort out the finances none of the parties want to win………..
“On Gordon Brown, I believe that he is more liked than as is depicted. I find it difficult to believe that people genuinely despise him so personally as the media dictates. Of course it’s my personal opinion, but I don’t think he’s dislikable at all, and in this age of cynicism, who wants another shiny Tony Blair?”
Well, I know this is a non-partisan site, but let’s just say that while I agree with your statement about Blair, be assured that there are many people who despise Brown personally.
It is truly remarkable that the polls are showing the Tories at the same level now as they were at the 2005 election -no… new… voters. Amazing. As the main opposition party you’d expect them to be at least a couple of points up regardless of almost anything.
Just watching ITV news now – amazingly biased. I never realised just how bad they are. Sure, hung parliaments are not great, but if you are going to talk about the voting system shouldn’t you mention why FPTP is seen as bad by some, just as you extoll its virtues?
ITV news – “Are we going to have a government on May the 7th?” – left hanging in the air. Never mind that it’s pretty clear that the existing government sits until another one is sorted out.
Having said that, they are getting the opposite view in a bit better now. So perhaps I should calm down.
I do think that there is even more uncertainty than the raw figures show. As I posted yesterday, and Anthony has analysed today, a lot depends on how the Libdem vote breaks. If they seem to have gained more ground in the North as he says, then that suggests that they are taking more votes from Labour or ex-Labour voters. Turnout has been dropping for the last few elections, and it could be that they are remotivating some of those who have stopped voting.
I have always had a certain sympathy for the Libdems as the underdog, even though I don’t agree with many of thir policies. It has always baffled me that they are so strong in the South West of England, when Libs are very Europhile and the EU has destroyed our fishing industry.
“I sympathise. The obsession is inevitable. I must concur that you are one of the fairest people on here and I hope you lurk even if you don’t post.
P.s. I doubt you be able to resist at least one more post before May 7!”
Thanks. You’re probably right! XD
I do think you’re right in saying that GB is personally despised by some, I just don’t think the opinion is as widespread, or intense, as the media would often have us think. I could well be wrong though of course. I don’t think he will in the future be despised as is say Margaret Thatcher, simply because I don’t think he has a striking enough character to generate such feelings. But of course, this is all personal opinion and down to my own experiences.
*despised by some as is say Margaret…
I have a question for you all
How many polls since the election campaign began have shown a CON majority being likely (given UNS or something close to it)
If there have been any when was the last one?
I’m amazed people are still postulating whether there will be a hung parliament or not – if any analyst or pundit thinks there will be a CON majority it would seem they’re doing this on the basis of a ‘hunch’ rather than any evidence…unless I’ve missed something?!
The average of tonights 4 polls is:-
Conservatives – 33%
Liberal Democrats – 29.5%
Labour – 27.25%.
Looking at the Electoral Calculus website, this translates as follows:-
Conservatives – 263 seats
Labour – 255 seats
Liberal Democrats – 100 seats
Last week I was of the view that the Liberal Democrats support would fall away to the mid 20′s and Labour would move back into second place. However, I am not so sure now. Since I last did this at the weekend, the Liberal Democrats are up 1.3% and Labour have fallen even further (down 0.15%). This is looking really bad for Labour. Looks to me like the Liberal Democrats vote is firming up at around the 28-30% mark and that they are in with a very good chance of beating Labour in terms of votes cast.
Whatever the result and whoever wins, I really do hope that we don’t end with a situation where the party finishing third in terms of votes ends up with the most seats. This country would be the laughing stock of the whole world and it would represent an enormous crisis for our democracy.
Even those who prefer a decisive result with one party being the winner ought to recognise that even if we retain FPTP, the discrepancies that allow a situation in which a party polling less votes ends up with more seats needs addressing, especially where it creates an absolutely ludicrous situation in which the party finishing thirds ends up with the most seats
Would-be Lib Dem supporters who previously had been convinced of the ‘wasted vote’ argument are seeing others backing the party and are beginning to believe. It’s an organic process…
[Sounds pretentious but it's true]
So they will hold their 29-30% share untill the election.
Tories will eat deep into their labour held target seats [As far as West Lancs] but will lose 20 odd marginals to Lib Dems to gain enough to be largest party but not win outright..
These are the figures (using fieldwork dates)
26 33.5 26.5 28.5
25 33 28 30.33
24 34.33 27.5 29
23 34.75 27.75 28
22 34 29 28
21 33 27 31
20 33 25.5 31.25
The relevance of “last 15 polls” ??
Why not the last 18 for example?
Why not do what they do in judging diving, and exclude the polls that are either obviously too high or obviously too low?
Whichever method one uses, given the pollsters +or – 3% advice, the LD movement is still minimal. It may drop dramatically [to say 22%/ - add your own lol and/or smiley]
Equally, it may not.
I don’t think, given there are only seven full days to the GE and an important leaders’ debate still ahead of us, that such minimal trends – however measured – tell us very much.
But by far the most important trend, in my opinion anyway, is the long, slow decline in the Tory share and the more recent, very gradual pick up in the Labour share – especially when one allies the latter to what appears to an increasingly impressive Gordon Brown. As a non-Labour voter I think offer that view fairly objectively.
There have been 31 since the first debate….
I split them in two