YouGov/Sun – 34/28/30
YouGov’s daily poll has topline figures of CON 34%(-1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 30%(+2). No significant change from yesterday’s figures, but the Lib Dems at are 30%, so the Lib Dem surge remaining healthy here. I wasn’t expecting any other polls tonight (last Sunday night YouGov was the only one), but Kay Burley on Sky earlier was saying there were other polls to come, so we shall see. I’ll update at the end of the night if there are.
Not connected to this poll, but I’ve seen various comments asking about measuring how people with postal votes are voting. Postal ballots will have started going out now in some areas, and the BPIX poll this weekend asked how people with postal votes were going to vote. That should be the last question along those lines we see till the election though, unless the pollsters feel like getting their collars felt, since from here on in they are illegal.
It is against the law to publish any poll based on people saying how they have already voted until the polling stations close on May 6th, and this includes people who have cast postal votes. In the European elections in 2004 Populus and the Times were investigated by the police over this for publishing voting figures for regions where there were all-postal ballots, which were hence effectively exit polls. No action was taken since it was not clear beforehand that this was against the law, but guidelines on how the law would apply to such things were subsequently drawn up. The result was that pollsters can include people who have already cast postal votes in their figures, but it is illegal to seperately report figures for just those who have already cast postal votes.
@EOIN
@JACK
is the swing figures in london ..ie the clegg effect going to have a negative effect on blue or red ?
or simply will prevent blue overall clear majority ?
either way clegg would seem to be the winner . long term ?
thoughts ?
@ EOIN
According to my numbers LibDems are +10.5% in London from 2005. The 0% figure you stated confuses me a lot but coming from you I tend to give it more weighting rather then outright dismiss it, so please tell me how you came to that figure.
Re Wales we will only be able to tell how its holding up once YouGov publish their regional break downs later today as their daily surveys puts Wales in with the Midlands. Using the last regional breakdown published as an indication and applying them to the whole Midlands/Wales numbers i would say that atm Lab’s vote in Wales stands at around 36.2% down from 42% in the last regional breakdown. But that figure is based on a lot of assumptions, so i wouldn’t entirely vouch for it.
The latest London poll shows the Libs +6% in London from 2005. Their swing is 7% from red to yellow. Put that into an electoral map (I reccomend daily telegraph’s) and see what you get…
Overall Labour are -8% in London and Blue are plus 4%
So a swing of 6% from Red to blue. This is a boost of 2.5% from the national YG figures for blue…
so far Peter Kellner’s article (which you will not I did not agree with) is looking somewhat dubious. Boost here for blue above national swing and MORI show 1.5% boost. Where Kellner gets his idea from I am still not sure.
@Eoin Audible Gasp!
No I have seen another poll last week with slightly better numbers for Lab and Lid Dems but worse for the Tories
“They were leader’s debates until the SNP objected, then they became PM debates to justify keeping Salmond out.”
“all three London parties ”
Those two phrases demonstrate in a nutshell the blinkered thinking behind Scottish nationalism. The first is in thrall to the cult of Eck. The evil broadcasters forever thinking of ways to keep the great Salmondo away from the screens whereas in reality he’s never off the telly.
As for the second, well. “london” has long been the nat dog whistle meaning ‘England’ but they know it doesn’t sound too good to say so out loud. So it’s always ‘London’ this and ‘London’ that.
Yet as I mentioned earlier there are over 300,000 Scots in London. Yet the SNP like to use ‘London’ as a wee swearie word
@ALEC
Yes – I think it was also to counter the “Vote Clegg, get brown” message.
NC has just come out saying that he will support either party for PR – so he has finally made it clear – will be interesting to see if this does reduce LD %. If not then it would seem that the electorate is not afraid of hung parliaments.
Xiby,
The Libs polled 22% in London in 2005.
The Lab polled c39% in London in 2005
the latest figures are Lab 31 Yellow 28
ie +6% for yellow
ie -8% for red
add = 14% movement
divide by 2 = 7% swing.
@Jack,
Always better to stick with the most recent poll. If I am not mistaken the latest one was reduced an hour ago…
31 red 28 yellow
please correct me if I am wrong.
@Andrew McCaig
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/8065/the_view_from_the_regions_19_april_10.html
As you state this is a combined view of the poll in the period 11 – 18 April. It is already a week out of date. A lot has happened in the last week.
Xiby’s data is from YouGov and is far more up to date. As to the SE lacking interest, there are 10 Lab/Con 3 LD/Con marginals with less than a 5% swing to change. I think both of them are of importance to Con.
When the really big poll comes on the 6th May, which data is likely to be closest, the data from the day before or that of the previous week. My interest is in interpreting the poll to see what it could be on the ground, with as much local knowledge as possible.
Whilst I am by inclination a Conservative, I do not have a vote and am in Cyprus. I do try to take a completely non-partisan view and prior to my predictions gave entirely logical deductions from the polls based on how they stood at the time of the poll.
When asked for an explanation of why I included one seat or excluded another (as Eoin asked), I gave him my reasons.
I do not want Xiby altering his data from recent polls to include old data from a week ago.
As for London, don’t confuse hype with fact. Look at my posting 1.40 am approx today and you will find what the later Youguv poll notified by Xiby last night actually could mean in terms of seats Con +10 from Lab, LD +10 from Lab and 1 from Con. The very latest London swings published at 1423 seem to be marginally better for Con, not quite so well for LD but still very good. As for Lab even the minutest of improvement from absolutely appalling will be welcome.
@EOIN
I agree that there ahs been a big swing from Lab-Lib in London (In fact i have stated such many times). Its what you said earlier that confused me:
“To put the Libs shares into context….
They are +2% in Scotland from 2005
They are +0% in London from 2005
To be clear, their recent rise has siply saw them recoup losses in Scotland and London.”
That +0% for London had me scratching my head for quite a while ;p
@Interesting
“more than 81 per cent of students say they are yet to be contacted by any of the political parties.”
It is impossible to contact everyone in a constituency in the weeks before an election. 10 teams of canvassers spending 5 minutes per house, including walking time, working 8 hours per day, 7 days a week, for 4 weeks would cover nearly 27,000 houses, and that assumes everyone is home at the first time of calling, and that all the houses are close together.
That’s why TV is magic. An hour of an MPs time will give a 5 minute interview to a million viewers. Not as personal by far but you could only canvas 12 people personally in the same time.
@Eoin
21/04/10 Evening Standard published these numbers “exclusively”.conducted by Ipsos Mori. I think these might be a subset of a national poll. But I quote
“London has become an open three-way fight with voters splitting 34 for Labour, 33 for the Conservatives and 31 for the Lib-Dems. “
@Xiby
\The previous YG poll in London had Libs on 22%. Literally this last hour there has been a new poll
which has libs +6% from 2005.
@Jack
It appears I have stumbled accross a recently released poll- perhpas in the last hour
@EOIN:
The exact London numbers in 2005 where 38.9%Lab and 21.9%Lib. (Being a bit finicky Xib? No not at all;p)
just being a smarmy a*s so dont mind me ;P
Xiby see this
h ttp://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/politics/article-23827791-david-cameron-makes-pitch-to-win-liberal-democrat-votes.do
@Eoin Clarke
A useful site on regional swing if anyone is interested.
h ttp://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/index.html?regional_swing.html
Thanks for that link. The regional percentage on this link are on the old boundaries, whilst the GE2010 constituency data are on notional boundaries and notional majorities after the boundary changes.
I think it is fair to conclude that London polling is much in line with the National polls with a slightly higher aggregate Labour number.
Eoin
Good link. So a massive rise for Lib Dem in London but only 3 more seats? They must really hate FPTP now.
Scotleag – Salmond ‘barely off the telly’? I’m someone interested in politics, but until yesterday I’d barely seen him in this campaign on the telly, particularly at UK-wide level, so I don’t know what chance the average person would have – the imbalance in the coverage has been truly obscene.
And to my mind ‘London party’ is perfectly logical shorthand for a party based in London.
@Interesting
“more than 81 per cent of students say they are yet to be contacted by any of the political parties.”
—
Is that good or bad? Do they prefer to listen to some weary old canvasser or see what’s going on on Facebook and Twitter?
@Eoin
I know I posted the latest London poll at 3.40 correcting and updating the poll the Evening Standard published last week showing a 3 way tie MOE
It sounds like this election is only happening in London. Perhaps the rest of the country should have its own government. At least that government might have some relevance outside of Westminster.
Re London Polls
YouGov dailies have been showing a big shift from Lab-Lib since the debates. I would predict that YouGov will show a bigger swing then the London Evening Standard, possibly at +10
Salmond ‘barely off the telly’? I’m someone interested in politics, but until yesterday I’d barely seen him in this campaign on the telly,
I’d call the TV repairman pronto if I were you.
“more than 81 per cent of students say they are yet to be contacted by any of the political parties.”
That means 19% took the risk that the caller at the door might be from TV Licensing
Eoin
I think the Evening Standard poll is actually the YouGov figures for London that we are expecting at Politics Home. Last week’s figures match and the sampling dates are the same.
Anything can happen on May 6/7th with the polling data that is being released.
The sense I have is that there is big momentum still with the Lib Dems and plenty of head rooms to pick up support from Cons, Labs new voters, and formally abstainers.
Its been so long since I ran canvassing and these 3 way and even 4 way races are beyond my experience. But I know momentum is key and each of the protagonists are trying to get their’s.
There is no question that Clegg’s strategy is to win the whole damn thing and 2nd place at worse, and the Lib Dems are running a variation of their best case scenario, probably better, in the final 9 days of the campaign.
I think the other 2 parties are still trying to find better traction.
@ Colin Green & Greengrass
I think that figure is one of those questions the out of touch London based types thinks is important, but I don’t really think it is that important in the “post debate world”. People answering the question just answered the question.
I’m not a student myself though, quite a few years ago since I was one so couldn’t possibly guess whether that is positive or negative.
I think the more interesting figure was the 75% who say that they are going to vote, quite a high figure for students I would guess many of them have postal and proxy votes.
Scotleag
“That means 19% took the risk that the caller at the door might be from TV Licensing”
LOL, no comment from me
@Xiby, Colin G,
I must say I disagree….. it probably isnt that big a disagreement but if we have an 8% national rise in the LD vote (from 2005)
The fact that London shows only a 6% rise must concern voters…. (LD ones that is)
Afterall, scotland has them +2% since 2005
Where are these new LDs? What region could someone tell me?
please…….. 
@scotleag
Thankyou so much for the expression “wee swearie word”. I’m already using it regularly.
Xiby
I think this is the YouGov data we’re waiting for. The article says it’s YouGov but there’s no separate information for a survey. I think they’re doing it on the cheap and claiming it as an “exclusive”.
To be clear then for those who understandably go lost in all of that
Labour are 8% down in London from 2005
Libs are 6% up in London from 2005
It is a swing of 7% from red to yellow
Roger
yes I think it is…
I stumbled on it when Jack said about the three way thing…
@EoinClarke
“It is a swing of 7% from red to yellow”
—
And a neat little swing it is
Here’s a constitutional conundrum that occurred to me earlier today; a (slim) Tory majority is still just about a possibility. Say the Lib Dems come second in the popular vote, but due to the f*cked-up system have 100-odd seats less than Labour. Who would become the official Opposition? Technically Labour, I suppose, but would they have the moral mandate?
Eoin
I suspect theie is a bigger Lib Dem swing in the Northern Metropolitan areas, and the North East.
I’m not sure about the Midlands.
what does a swing of 7 from red to yellow in london mean , in terms of overall result ?
@GreenG,
‘neat’ is a fair description from a utopian
Last week at tis peak the swing from red-yellow was c.11%. Liberal Ds might be concerned that the London swing is now just 7%.
@EOIN
is the swing red to yellow in london .. a benefit to yellow , blue or , conversely ..red ..?
This SNP debate argument is a red herring isn’t it?
Those that decide these things will undoubtedly argue there have to be criteria for the different elections, or everyone could be in each debate.
I assume that these will consist of:
1 A significant level of existing support, this will be decided by showing(s) in recent elections. Exactly what level this support has to be will be interesting, I am sure it will be at least 5% (the deposit level) but it may well be higher, perhaps 10%, but objectively measurable.
2 Standing in a majority of constituencies, also objectively measurable.
They will cite the allocation of party political broadcasts as part of the precedent.
They will cite the already existing debates as precedent.
They will cite the need to have objective measures not subjective hopes.
If this is applied for the Scottish Parliament elections no doubt the SNP can insist on equal footing, as with Plaid Cymru for Welsh Assembly elections.
For Euro elections its a real hotchpotch, but there could be arguments for UKIP or the Greens to join in.
But at present for the House of Commons these two hurdles would eliminate all but the three largest parties.
Perhaps an official alliance could help at least in part, SNP-Plaid Cymru-Meibion Kernow.
Or of course the nationalists could stand in England to try and achieve this, I look forward to my oportunity in England at the next election of voting Plaid Cymru…
@Jack,
It is the midlands I wait. They decide the next PM when all is said and done.. They are the great known ‘unknown’.
@Welshman,
on a UNS it means three red losses to yellow in London.. Kilburn, Islington, i’m not sure of the other one..
When it comes to swings in elections just how ‘good’ or ‘bad’ is +7%?
I suspect it would normally be regarded as excellent, but then these aren’t normal times. Can anyone illuminate?
Fingerbob69 -
Under normal circumstances it would be stonkingly huge. It would be either the second or third largest swing since the war.
@Welshman,
It means 2-5 lab-lib; 1-2 Con -lib; 5-8 from lab to con.
Far less than the cons need normally from London for a majority.
That’s my feel for it!
Looking at the betting exchanges, Labour to win most seats have now moved out to nearly 6-1. I thought around 4-1 was too generous. Very interesting indeed.
Another thing I noticed, is that the odds for Morley and Outwood, where Ed Balls has been parachuted in for Labour, are starting to get very tight indeed. Is there really a chance the Conservatives could oust him? Working out the swing, I am sure it would require double digit, which on the face of it you would think is a bridge too far.
Perhaps his mobile phone call might cost him another 500 votes?
@EoinClarke
“‘neat’ is a fair description from a utopian ”
—
I took Thomas More as my confirmation name when I was under the influence of the soldiers of Ignatius (a very Joycean upbringing but didn’t produce the same literary outcome. “-)
Eoin
Ealing Acton & Central is the third Lib Dem gain according to the Standard. For what it’s worth they should get Brent South too.
Presumably peter kellner must have had all these data?
@AW
That’s what I thought. So for some to suggest the Lib Dems will be disappointed seems abit churlish!