YouGov’s daily poll has topline figures of CON 34%(-1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 30%(+2). No significant change from yesterday’s figures, but the Lib Dems at are 30%, so the Lib Dem surge remaining healthy here. I wasn’t expecting any other polls tonight (last Sunday night YouGov was the only one), but Kay Burley on Sky earlier was saying there were other polls to come, so we shall see. I’ll update at the end of the night if there are.

Not connected to this poll, but I’ve seen various comments asking about measuring how people with postal votes are voting. Postal ballots will have started going out now in some areas, and the BPIX poll this weekend asked how people with postal votes were going to vote. That should be the last question along those lines we see till the election though, unless the pollsters feel like getting their collars felt, since from here on in they are illegal.

It is against the law to publish any poll based on people saying how they have already voted until the polling stations close on May 6th, and this includes people who have cast postal votes. In the European elections in 2004 Populus and the Times were investigated by the police over this for publishing voting figures for regions where there were all-postal ballots, which were hence effectively exit polls. No action was taken since it was not clear beforehand that this was against the law, but guidelines on how the law would apply to such things were subsequently drawn up. The result was that pollsters can include people who have already cast postal votes in their figures, but it is illegal to seperately report figures for just those who have already cast postal votes.


668 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 34/28/30”

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  1. Again, no real change. 34 27 30 the rolling average. I wonder if it will change at all before Thursday.

  2. Sorry, that should be 34 27 29. Wouldn’t want to upset anyone unduly.

  3. Anthony , Can you explain/clarify the 2 slightly different figures on the today.yougov page . The report has the same as you but the graphics show 34/31/27
    Many thanks

  4. IMHO this adds to the pretty consistent message for more than a week now that Labour are third. This is more likely to encourage Lab to LD shift over the next 10 days than vice versa.

    NC’s comments on squatting in Downing Street interesting. LD/Lab coalition with NC in No 10 despite fewer sreats justified on the popular mandate???

  5. Simply fluctuation within margin of error, or a narrowing? No way to be sure until we get more polls as far as I can tell.
    It perhaps does point towards the LD love-affair not having burst quite yet though.

  6. Anthony

    Ditto to Mark Senior – I’ve seen this on other days results as well.

  7. No real change, it will be interesting to see if Clegg’s earlier comments that he won’t prop up Brown boost the Labour vote by encouraging wavering Labour supporters home.

  8. Well, it looks like, without any major developments, this is the way it’s going to stay up until May 6th. Perhaps that’s premature though. Who knows with this election?
    As the incumbency it wouldn’t surprise me if Labour still do better however, come May 6th. And, if the final debate does have any effect, I would expect Brown to do quite well, perhaps to gain a point or two, one from each party. But of course, that’s getting into partisan territory, so that opinion probably is worth very little!

    I think I’m going to explode come election day. I actually don’t think I’ll be able to sleep on May the 5th!

  9. I think this is right. As a Labour supporter I admit these figures are a disaster but isn’t it also a disaster for the Tories who were polling at around 40 until quite recently? For the Tories has it not been an unrelenting march backwards at an even swifter pace than for Labour?

  10. Anthony,

    I have not been moderated for ages but i am so tonight. I can’t imagine why? :)

  11. The Tory lead is narrowing again :-)

  12. If these kind of shares of the votes are replicated on GE night it would be nip and tuck between Con and Lab re the largest party.
    Its still all about Thursday night though with the Lib Dem vote still holding up well.

  13. These “rumours” always turns out to be correct. Probably spread by the person who decides the figures.

  14. Tories always get their vote out
    I expect them to recover plenty of support from LibDems while Labour – who pollsters always seem to overestimate – will not recover much support
    Tory majority in 12 days’ time in my opinion

  15. tighter poll than the ones last night. I honestly don’t know what to believe.

    It’s almost pointless people clinging on to individual polls though and saying things like ‘bad poll for Cameron’ etc. as we are seeing so much differential in the polling.

    rich

  16. @Nick OK

    I think the final debate could give any of the parties a small boost – it’s on the BBC (should = decent viewing figures) and is focused on the economy. But now we are all “used to” the party leaders I doubt it will make a big difference. They only way it could would be for someone to make a huge gaffe like saying “after we’ve raised VAT…”

    However, given the current, finely balanced position, one or two percent could make a huge difference to the outcome. So the stakes couldn’t be higher this coming Thursday.

  17. When will the polling stations close on May6th ?

  18. another way of looking at these figures…compared to begining of campaign…perhaps real story of election

    now

    Con 34%
    Lib/Lab 58%
    lead……………………….24% centre left

    then

    Con 40%
    Lib/Lab 50%
    lead……………………….10% centre left

  19. Can someone explain why major parties dislike or oppose proportional representation. If I were the Lib Dem, I would NEVER enter into coalition government with either major parties unless they would support proportional representation, period!

  20. When the Tories were 18 points ahead people were saying that they weren’t doing well enough. Given that Labour has spent the last few years trying to be pseudo-Tories, stealing all their best lines and at the same time trying to perpetuate the notion that Conservatives are somehow satanic, then I think the party has done extremely well to make the progress it has. There needs to be a clear difference between parties in order for voters to make a clear choice, and that hasn’t been the case for most people IMHO.

    In all honesty, I look back nostalgically to the days about a month ago when this was a site for objective discussion rather than a multi-party punch up.

    OK rant over ….

  21. @ SIMON HEPWORTH

    David Cameron ate my hamster ;-)

  22. Joe the polling stations close at 10 pm.

  23. @Amber

    Yes, but it was still #nickcleggsfault

  24. Paul- What kind of majority do you envisage-20,50?

  25. Anthony

    Another question I’m afraid. Are the pollsters now asking “How Will You / Have You Voted in the General Election on 6th May?”

    Or are they still asking “How Would You Vote in there Was an Election tomorrow?” I assume from a comment you made a few threads make YouGov still are asking that.

    Thanks

  26. Not that I’m expecting it to happen, but it’s also not beyond the realms of possibility –

    Imagine there’s just a 2% swing back to Labour from the Tories over the next 10 days.

    So, we still have Labour in 3rd, but the final poll is

    Con – 32%
    Lib Dem – 31%
    Lab – 30%.

    Now that would make an interesting night on May 6th.

  27. If I was like quite a few people on here I would say “Now we can all agree that the last couple of polls were just a blip caused by Telegraph-gate and the Lib Dems are back on the upward trend of the previous week. I predict 30-26-36 by polling day and NC PM by popular acclaim”

    But I’m not, so I won’t. Steady as she goes for a hung parliament with Tories the largest party in votes if not in seats, and Labour third in votes (but not in seats) by the look of it.

    BTW, the Lib Dems are as “professional” as any other party these days and Clegg’s comments about hung parlianments today will have been carefully calculated on the basis of private polls and focus groups. A pity, in my book, although it does look fairly sensible too, to be honest

    Andrew

  28. With the postal voters making their decisions in the next couple of days, how would they affect the outcome to a libdem vote, if the libs went back to polling 20% on election day?

    Would this give them an artificial boost of 3 percentage points, given their ratings today?

  29. “When the Tories were 18 points ahead people were saying that they weren’t doing well enough. Given that Labour has spent the last few years trying to be pseudo-Tories, stealing all their best lines and at the same time trying to perpetuate the notion that Conservatives are somehow satanic, then I think the party has done extremely well to make the progress it has. There needs to be a clear difference between parties in order for voters to make a clear choice, and that hasn’t been the case for most people IMHO.”

    Simon, the Tories are a few points up from the last election and since we have (generally) had a very unpopular Labour government. The current results are a disaster for Labour and the Tories are clearly in a much better position that their traditional rivals but to say they are doing well is being rather optimistic. They had expected a majority, this is by no means the most likely outcome. They could well lose their fourth election in a row.

  30. The third Debate on Thursday competes with Coronation Street, Liverpool v Madrid, Fulham v Hamburg, (both Euro SF) and the World Snooker.

    Do we honestly think that floating voters of the kind that decide elctions are going to watch that? I’ll be at the football, and I’m a political anorak.

  31. Labour largest party again and they would absolutely have the right to govern with Brown as PM regardless of whether 3rd in % vote or not. There are just as good arguments for the current system where number of seats is paramount, to the various PR systems/lists/umpteen rounds etc. LibDem talk of both Cam and Brown having insecure futures is cocky and I doubt it will go down well

  32. @Andrew,

    They could well lose their fourth election in a row

    Look at it another way. 2005 could be the last UK general election that any party ever wins.

  33. @Andrew,

    You could argue the current polling is as follows;

    Labour – Poor
    Conservatives – Disappointing
    Liberals – Excellent

    That’s how I see it against context. Obviously, given the last 13 years, Conservatives 6 points ahead is actually not the worst place to be, but contextually, with the state of the economy, unpopular Govt etc, I would say the polls are rather disappointing for them.

  34. Still think Labours target is to get over 30% and beat the Lib Dems on popular vote – even if its just by a few thousand votes.

    It will all depend on whether the Lib Dem surge can last until election day.

    One thought – is any polling organisation factoring in ‘wannabe Lib Dems’ – ie those that say they will vote Lib Dem but when push comes to shove will switch back to another party? is there any evidence that this type of group exists like shy Tories or shy Labour?

    It would be the opposite I guess of shy Tories or shy Labour – people who want to be seen to be supporting someone else (because they are popular at the moment) but actually deep down are not really seriously considering voting Lib Dem.

  35. Re Simon,

    The primary demonising has been of Brown, Labour and latterly Nick Clegg by the Tory press.

  36. I expect the LibDem share to increase. As people see their share holding up the perception that it’s a wasted vote will fade further. It could even snowball! Labour’s holding up and the Tories are going nowhere, it seems.

  37. With Clegg having had a day off yesterday, and after slipping back a little before and after the 2nd debate, the LDs will be very pleased indeed with this I’d guess. Con and Lab equally unhappy.GB unlikely to WOW anyone in the 3rd debate, but he will undoubtedly be attacking DC more than NC because of the jobs issue (GB always terribly keen on jobs/ skills arguements) and his mantra of dangerous on the economy/ dangerous on defence will be focussed on the economic sinners this time round.

    I would expect NC wil be equally critical of the £6billion wastage strategy (which could turn out to be looked back on as a turning point in this election) so the format o fthe debate vould be similar to the first one.

    Looking at Clegg and Cameron I think if it comes down to the night itself then Clegg has better media skills than Cameron so unless there are gaffes I would expect NC tto make a slight % gain in this debate with DC dropping back a couple and GB standing still.

    My guess is that after the debate we migt be looking at 32 – 28 -32 or similar

    interesting times

  38. I think this is more or less how the polls will stay until Thursday.

    Anyone who studies elections historically will confirm that the last week, especially the last three days are decisive and that this is often when things start to happen.

    Maybe the debate will be the trigger. Maybe there will be some delay. But as Peter Kellner confirmed in the Sunday Times today, if just 4% of the tory liberals move back to the tories then there will be a majority tory government. This is what I think will happen in the end. Tory Liberals will panic back to the tories giving the tories 38% The Liberals will fall back to 26% Labour will stay at 28% Result a tory majority.

    This is not what I want to happen but I suspect it will.

  39. @gary…interesting possibility

    but i prefer….’Lovin’ LibDems’

  40. I would imagine respondents from traditionally Labour or Conservative families would be ones less like to answer truthfully with their other halfs listening in. On election day, they have no such worries.

  41. “Tories always get their vote out
    I expect them to recover plenty of support from LibDems while Labour – who pollsters always seem to overestimate – will not recover much support
    Tory majority in 12 days’ time in my opinion”

    I admire your optimism and hate to puncture it but haven’t polls in most recent elections *under*estimated the LibDems’ actual vote. Sure this election is very different but it seems far from obvious to me that the Lib Dem numbers are as soft as you seem to think. Is there any evidence to support this?

  42. @Howard,

    No, I don’t expect everyone to be watching live – but if someone does exceptionally well or badly it will be widely reported. In particular if someone drops a huge clanger it will be *very* widely reported.

    So the last debate has the potential to shift the polling a few points – or alter turnout, which is just as important. For example – if Labour is trailing come Thursday there is a danger of low morale amongst labour voters causing low turnout (making the result worse for Labour.) A strong performance from GB could boost morale and thus limit the damage. A weak performance would have the opposite effect. So it isn’t necessary for minds to be changed (in a swapping party alleigance sense) for the debate to have an impact.

  43. Howard

    My son is a Liverpool supporter and I want to watch the debate. We only have one tv. Have you got any advice? (He would also want to watch Fulham if that happens to be the match shown). He made me watch on the computer for the last debate. Should I give in again?

  44. The last dabate will be a game changer. Detailed policy discussion can not be avioded if you wanna convince the people about their jobs,tax credits,public services , growth etc. X factors would not help NC/DC.They need to very good that night to pull it again

    I sincerely believe that it will play to GB favour expect DC will come up a new line of attack other than the ones we are used to aganist GB.

    I thought by now, GB would have been blown off his strand but he is still fighting for the last vote.I am surprise that DC have not close the deal. Considering the margin of -or+3, this election is too close to call.
    DC needs to pulling above 40 to be sure of winning with a clear marjority, 32-35 can not do it.

  45. The Lib Dem % has consolidated. As I have argued for some time given attitudinal polling there is substantially more headroom for their vote to grow between now and polling day.

    Intention is extremely volatile even with the consistency of top line numbers.

    What we do know though is that the Cons And Labs are not attracting as a high a % of new or renewed voter intention than the Lib Dems.

    In the circumstances, even in the FPTP squesze that we have seen time and time again on polling day, it is more likely that the Lib Dem % will grow between now and polling day rather than decline. It may well stay in the 29-31%,, so the Cons will be dependent on a straight switch from Lab to Con in order to win a majority.

    Of course,the Lab vote might collapse further to favour Lib Dems and Lib Dems to Tories. But I think at the end of the day, Lib dem support will go up another tier

  46. @ YAKOBS

    – If you are a LAB supporter, watch the footie – it’s what Gordon would do ;-)

  47. Andrew McCaig – As tactics go, that makes no sense. The Lib Dem surge has suffered most by a revival from the Cons, not Lab, so why cosy up to Cameron and spit venom at Brown?
    Either a massive tactical error, OR ideology. It is what Clegg desires, what he believes and he will ignore almost any result to achieve his Lib/Con alliance.
    FWIW, EOIN thought, I believe, that Clegg had made a big error in courting Cameron so openly, I’d love to hear more about this from him.

  48. Howard – I’ll definitely be watching the football, and then the news afterwards (which will tell me who won, and then I’ll change my vote accordingly)

    Or not.

    The debates produce media hype, which can motivate people.

    I can’t imagiine anyone voting because an over-rehearsed party leader has delivered a few killer lines better than his adversaries in the third debate.

    The more ways Labour can say “Big Cuts”, the more ways the Conservatives can say “Change”, the more ways the LibDems can say “PR”, between now and 6th May, the more people might just get the one message they are listening for.

    I can see it going to the last day. No foregone conclusion, but perhaps a surprise on that day.

    Talking of longing for the days of reasonable polling debate, preceding that complaint with a partisan “given that…” doesn’t help.

    Neil A might be right , and I kind of hope the legacy of the corruption is perpetual hung parliament – it would be on the scale of Greek God punishments in terms of irony and excruciation.

    Howver, therte’s a decent chance that Clegg slips and his new votes migrate back to where they came from (so to speak)

  49. Lib Dems will be 25% by tomorrow night – Eoin said so, so it must be right.

  50. Amber – I asked you where your chart fella says it’s going next – do share!

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