YouGov’s daily poll has topline figures of CON 34%(-1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 30%(+2). No significant change from yesterday’s figures, but the Lib Dems at are 30%, so the Lib Dem surge remaining healthy here. I wasn’t expecting any other polls tonight (last Sunday night YouGov was the only one), but Kay Burley on Sky earlier was saying there were other polls to come, so we shall see. I’ll update at the end of the night if there are.
Not connected to this poll, but I’ve seen various comments asking about measuring how people with postal votes are voting. Postal ballots will have started going out now in some areas, and the BPIX poll this weekend asked how people with postal votes were going to vote. That should be the last question along those lines we see till the election though, unless the pollsters feel like getting their collars felt, since from here on in they are illegal.
It is against the law to publish any poll based on people saying how they have already voted until the polling stations close on May 6th, and this includes people who have cast postal votes. In the European elections in 2004 Populus and the Times were investigated by the police over this for publishing voting figures for regions where there were all-postal ballots, which were hence effectively exit polls. No action was taken since it was not clear beforehand that this was against the law, but guidelines on how the law would apply to such things were subsequently drawn up. The result was that pollsters can include people who have already cast postal votes in their figures, but it is illegal to seperately report figures for just those who have already cast postal votes.