There aren’t normally many polls on Sunday night – YouGov’s Sun poll will be out later – but I’ve had chance to look at more of the YouGov/Sunday Times data from yesterday/this morning, including that article from Peter Kellner on marginal data.
Looking at the rest of the YouGov/Sunday Times results, Nick Clegg continues to enjoy his “Churchillian” approval ratings – 77% think he is doing a good job as Lib Dem leader, 14% a bad job. Asked which party poses the bigger risk to the recovery, respondents were evenly split – 34% thought Conservative spending cuts were the biggest risk, 35% thought Labour’s National Insurance rise posed the bigger threat.
There were a series of questions about hung Parliaments – 37% thought a hung Parliament with the Lib Dems holding the balance of power would be a good thing, 41% disagreed. As you might expect, Lib Dem voters overwhelmingly thought it would be good, and not particularly surprisingly Tory voters overwhelmingly thought it would be bad. Interestingly a substantial minor of Labour voters (36%) thought it would be a good thing (presumably part of that will be people considering it the alternative to a Tory majority!). People were evenly split when asked whether they believed a hung Parliament could result in Britain turning to the IMF – 32% agreed and 33% disagreed.
Asked whether they thought Conservative claims that voting for Nick Clegg could result in Gordon Brown remaining Prime Minister were true, 40% thought they were true, with 30% disagreeing. Most of that 40% said it made no difference to how they would vote (they would either vote Lib Dem anyway, or weren’t going to anyhow) – however, 14% of Lib Dem voters said they it might effect their vote, and they would not want to risk keeping Gordon Brown in power.
YouGov also asked if various election results would delight or dismay respondents. 24% would be delighted by a Cameron majority government, the highest figure, but 47% would be dismayed. As you might expect, most Conservatives would be delighted, most Labour and a significant majority of Lib Dem supporters would be dismayed. Asked about a Brown majority goverment 17% would be delighted (since almost a third of Labour supporters said only they wouldn’t mind), 50% would be dismayed.
Now it gets interesting – asked about a Cameron led Con/LD coalition, it is less popular than a Conservative majority. Only 8% would be delighted, and 52% would be dismayed (the highest figure). The reason is 53% of Lib Dem supporters would still be dismayed by such a result, and only 6% delighted, while 33% of Conservative supporters would be dismayed by such a result. What about a Gordon Brown led Lab/LD coalition? This is slightly more popular, 10% would be delighted and 49% dismayed, but still less popular than a Labour majority. Contrast this with a Lab/LD coalition under a different Labour leader – 11% would be delighted (including 24% of Lib Dem voters), and only 43% dismayed.
Finally 21% would be delighted at a majority Lib Dem coalition, with just 32% dismayed (since 31% of Tories and 40% of Labour wouldn’t mind). 8% would be delighted at a grand coalition, 45% dismayed.
In the Times Peter Kellner also has an article based on the aggregated YouGov data, broken down to look at marginal seats. There the Conservatives have a swing of only 4%, compared to a national swing of 4% across the same period – so this poll shows the Lib Dem bounce cancelling out the Conservatives previous outpermance in marginal seats. Two caveats need adding to this – firstly it’s just one poll, and we’ve had a MORI marginals poll in the same period showing the Conservatives continuing to do better in marginals. Secondly, my understanding is that the aggregated data is all of YouGov’s polling between the first and second debate, so it’s during the peak of the Clegg boost, rather than the modest Conservative recovery we’ve seen since then.
Finally, I’ve had little chance to keep track of Scottish voting intention polls during the election, but there was also a YouGov poll of Scottish voting intentions this morning. Topline figures were CON 15%, LAB 36%, LDEM 24%, SNP 22%. What strikes me the most there is how close it is to the 2005 election result compared to GB figures – the Conservatives are down 1 since 2005, Labour down 3, the Liberal Democrats up 1, the SNP up 4. If the general election result is anything like that, I would not expect many Scottish seats to change hands.