It’s Saturday night, so I’d expect lots of polls for the Sunday newspapers. The first out of the traps are ComRes, ICM and MORI.

ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday has topline figures of CON 34%(-1), LAB 28%(+3), LDEM 29%(+2). This is an increase for Labour, but may well be a reversion to the mean after some rather odd ComRes polls in the week. The previous ComRes polls were their rolling polls for ITV news and, as we discussed at the time, they appeared to have included an extremely Conservative sample from Monday, which produced 9 and 8 point Tory leads that looked rather anomolous at the time.

The second new poll is for ICM for the Sunday Telegraph, and has figures of CON 35%(+2), LAB 26%(-2), LDEM 31%(+1) – so in contrast they have the Conservatives rising and Labour falling. As with ComRes, the Lib Dem boost remains healthy.

Finally there is an Ipsos MORI poll in the News of the World, which has the most surprising result. Their topline figures with changes from the last poll are CON 36%(+4), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 23%(-9), so they have the Lib Dem boost almost entirely unwinding. Ben Page of MORI has has just been on Sky – and hats off to him for giving a responsible and measured account of the poll rather than claiming it shows something spectacular. Ben said they’d checked their figures very carefully, scratched their heads, but they have to publish them… but he did re-iterated that one in twenty polls are rogues. That’s about as close as pollsters come to warning that one of their own polls they’ve just released might be a rogue!

Then again, it might be the start of a trend. We should have more polls to come later tonight (at the very least there will be YouGov in the Sunday Times) so let’s see what they say.


210 Responses to “Sunday polls – ICM, ComRes and MORI”

1 3 4 5
  1. @ BEN

    I care not what you think of my friend’s prediction :-)

  2. @Anthony Wells misread the numbers. mus have been .4 to .7%, but that was in two horse race elections. This one is a different beast, literally millions of voters are thinking about this election differently this time.

    The fact that the debate now includes how low a percentage Labour got in on last time, and how low both Tory and Labour can get majorities with under 40% of the vote shows how different the election is this time.

    Also, sometimes the devil is in the details, or maybe we can say ‘shadows’. For example, I knew the Lib Dem boost was not a flash in the pan purely based on the fact that the LD’s got a bigger boost in their polling from both the Chancellor’s Debate and their manifesto day. In fact in the period between the Chancellor’s Debate and the afternoon of the Leaders Debate, polling was already moving up for the LD’s and down for the Tories and Labour.

    The more you decide the polls are only partly about the Leader’s Debates, the more you can see how the Lib Dem numbers are very hard to pin down, hence the fluidity I spoke of in my last post.

  3. @Amber!

    Your friend is now my best friend :)

  4. I was phoned up by ICM today, so if that’s this poll I might be the cause of some of the increase in Conservative support.

  5. The level of debate in this site is so much superior and mature than in PB. Everyone recognises the other is partisan but does not hector him/her.

    On a separate topic, Cameron’s remark regarding Northern Ireland and the North was not a slip, I feel. I am not sure what benefit he can get out of Northern Ireland, but even if 2%/3% in the North defected away from the Tories, it would be most unlikely that they would go to Labour. Probably LIb Dem. He recognises Conservatives would not win too many seats in that region anyway. The Liberals could deny Labour a few more.

    Labour’s strategy of pushing up the Lib Dem vote worked in the beginning. However, if Labour goes below 28%, then it might begin to scare some hard-core Labour voters !

  6. Surbiton,

    That sounds too much like a conspiracy theory – plausible but unnecessarily complex.

    In areas where over half the populace either work in the public sector or rely on state benefits, those who work in the private scetor can feel beleaguered. Some of those may have felt drawn to LDs on basis that “Cons can’t win round here”. If those pockets of potential tory support vote Con, it could deliver a couple of extra seats in the region.

    Just another equally plausible, but siimpler, explanation !

  7. Re the latest MORI poll, reweighting on past voting recollection to reflect the actual 2005 share gives:

    CON 34%
    LD 33%
    LAB 24%

    OK, it’s a crude calculation but the result is very different from what’s been reported.

  8. @ Amber Star

    “LAB will be catching CON next week (so I am told).”

    Well you’ve been told wrong, haven’t you?

    There’s not a SCRAP of statistical evidence to support this bunkum.

  9. In the Paxman interview, DC was stressing the need to grow the private sector in NI and the NE – hardly something the Jarrow crusaders or even Sinn Fein could get too upset about. In the 50’s NI was a net contributor to the UK whereas now it is a massive net recipient. Rebalancing the private and public sectors there is a matter of urgency and widely acknowledged.
    That said, I’m sure it’s not a massive coincidence that neither area carries much hope for blue.

  10. I’m Still Of The Opinion That The Polls Are Based Not On Policy But On Anger At The Way All Of The Parties Have Behaved For So Long, And Also On PERSONALITY Hopefully People Will Start Looking At Policy Rather Than Reacting To The News Media That Appears To Control The Public Decision More So Than Any Politician Does,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, God Help Us

1 3 4 5