I didn’t expect any other polls tonight, but there’s also a new Harris poll in the Daily Mail. The topline results, with changes from the previous Harris poll, are CON 34%(+3), LAB 26%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1), so a slight movement back towards the Conservatives, but nothing that couldn’t just be sample variation. The full report is here. The fieldwork was conducted “Thursday night and today”, so is presumably mostly or entirely after the second debate.


525 Responses to “Harris/Daily Mail – 34/26/29”

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  1. I was polled by Mori a few days ago, before the last debate, and gave my voting intention as LD. They also asked for my ethnicity (white) gender (male) & age (49).

    The gentleman I spoke to said the information was necessary to ensure those polled were representative of the broader demographic. This is the first time I’ve been part of one of these things and I’m not up to speed with how they are generally conducted.

    I take it this is nothing out of the ordinary? I’m just wondering how they arrived at their latest figures. The Mori guy, currently on Sky News is claiming they’re still within the margin of error but I don’t see how that works for the LD figure of 23.

  2. Gary

    I suspect that might have Clegg’s strategy up to nine days ago. It won’t be now.

    The Lib Dems had a “replace Labour” plan under Paddy Ashdown, when it looked as if the Labs were in terminal decline, but that was always a long way round if they couldn’t get PR in place.

    With these figures, they can hope for PR a lot quicker than that. And of course that could stop Labour being reduced to a rump of 40-50 seats (as they were in 1910, but on the way up) in the same way it stopped the Tories in Scotland and Wales from oblivion.

    Now all Clegg has to do (as NeilA pointed out) is keep his options open so he can maximise his negotiation strength with both parties.

  3. Any confirmation of that MORI poll?

    If it is confirmed – & is anywhere close to being a true picture – √Čoin will be doing the dance of victory!!!

  4. @Rob @Yacobs et al

    Given the current state of the polls, we may well be in a position in a fortnight to put our respective hypotheses to the test. Whatever happens, politicvs will never be the same in this country.

  5. @Amber

    Ben Page of MORI has just been on Sky about it – so the figures are correct. However he was a bit defensive so it looks like MORI don’t entirely believe their own results…

  6. Kay Burley has been assigned to follow Brown today for SkyNews. Kay says the prime minister isn’t doing too well at the moment. She claims that he did badly in the debates and is last in all the polls.
    This despite the fact SkyNews is prominently displaying each of the ICM, Comres and Mori polls, the latter of which puts Labour second (although rogue does not even come close…)

    BEN PAGE of IPSOS MORI (on SkyNews): all polls within MOE, just differ on LD share. We don’t weight by past vote. LD voters more likely to switch. Hung parliament likely.

  7. Cor, some of the story-lines are like Eastenders on here tonight.

    Clegg IMO DOES hate Labour, but his party would rather side with Labour than the Tories. Perhaps he no longer cares about his core vote though, now that he has all those first time voters and don’t knows to rely on? Scary strategy IMO.

    Once again we have two polls showing totally different stories (ICM and COMRES) and will have to wait for YouGov for more info. Love em of hate em and I know there have been times when all sides have done both, they seem to be the closest to the truth once trends are confirmed.

  8. @RAF as noted earlier in this thread, the polls are NOT within MOE of each other. There is a 9-point spread on the LD figure..

  9. AMBER STAR:

    The guy from Ipsos-mori was on sky news just now explaining why his figures are different. He did stress that we should wait and that 1 in 20 for any pollster could be outside the normal 3 or 4 percent MOE.
    But the figures for Ipsos Mori stands at..

    Con 36%
    Lab 30%
    Lib 23%

  10. Has Murdock spoken to sky news?

  11. 3 new polls out already today.

    Comres have:-

    Conservatives – 34%
    Liberal Democrats – 29%
    Labour – 28%

    ICM have:-

    Conservatives – 35%
    Liberal Democrats – 31%
    Labour – 26%

    Ipsos Mori have:-

    Conservatives – 36%
    Liberal Democrats – 23%
    Labour – 30%

    The average of these 3 polls is as follows:-

    Conservatives – 35% (up 1%)
    Liberal Democrats – 27.67% (down 1.33%)
    Labour – 28% (up 0.5%)

    A further slippage in support for the Liberal Democrats. The downward trend seems firmly established and they are back now in third place. The Conservatives are firmly on an upward trend (probably heading back to the pre-first TV debate position of around 38-40%. Labour are also gradually moving forwards and are now back in second place – probably also heading back to their pre-first TV debate position of around 31-32%. Looks to me like the Liberal bubble has now well and truly burst. Back to the same old two party system!

  12. Hey guys! Mori poll looks a little bit more like reality. Cons around mid 30’s. Labour just over 30. I live in a Lab-Con marginal seat. LDs do exist here in Rugby but there organisation/money/activists on the ground are just non existant and it will hurt them when voting day comes. In the ICM poll, said that only 53% of LD supporters were certain to vote, compared to high 70s for both Lab and Tory backers. Worth noting.

  13. Since there seems to be such a wide range, is it strange samples.. or is it that is very regional? If voters listen to polls they must be confused, I know I am.

  14. I think most people dont relise how a coillition would work.
    In the Past Scottish parliments the LibDem agreed to ‘take the goverment whip’ in return for certain policies being introduced like PR in Local elections and health care for the elderly etc. Plus minor cabinet posts.
    They did not argue each individual policy

  15. “With regard to Clegg, he is a Tory in all but name, so would naturally side with them in a coalition if he can get away with it. However chances are he will find that very hard to actually pull off.”

    Much will depend on the MPs he ends up with.

    “they seem to be the closest to the truth”

    Well we won’t know that until May 7. We’re in uncharted political territory and no-one knows how reliable the pollsters methods will turn out to have been.

  16. @ ASH & others

    Thanks for the confirmation. Amazing result. I would’ve said MORI was attention seeking – but if Ben is all embarrassed about it, then probably not ;-)

    Anthony has a new thread up :-)

  17. That MORI poll looks out of line with the others.

    As for Clegg, I’m still not convinced he would want to be PM but having to rely on Labour support – can’t see that lasting long.

    I agree that he will be in a strong position to call for PR if the LD’s do get 30% share but I’m still not convinced a Conservative minority government will give in on this.

    More likely is that a Tory minority government would try and hold another election in the autumn to secure a majority.

    In that case Clegg would want to position himself to capitalise with further gains at that 2nd election. Thats where the supplanting Labour as the opposition may come in.

    All ifs and buts and very dependant on the Lib Dems having a string showing in this election.

  18. Given the average of the latest 3 polls of:-

    Conservatives – 35%
    Liberal Democrats – 27.67%
    Labour – 28%

    using the Electoral Calculus website, this translates into the following:-

    Conservatives – 277 seats
    Labour – 253 seats
    Liberal Democrats – 88 seats

  19. Interesting MORI result. Excluding the MORI numbers and applying a meta analysis of the other (reputable) polls of the last 2 days to get LD average, has anyone worked out the standard deviation on the LD score and the consequent chance of the MORI poll being an outlier as opposed to a methodology flaw? ps; when I mentioned reputable I was getting at the shoddy outfit who poll for the People – not MORI.

  20. @James. 3 mainstream polls out. Two broadly similar within the usual margin of error (and similar to polls last night). I’d be wary at this point of relying too much on the Mori poll to support your quite conclusions- at least based on the evidence have across all the polls. Whilst no doubt you would like to conclude that 2 party politics is back I’m afraid the evidence doesn’t support your assertion. I’d let the polls do the talking and leave some of the more crude futurology to Mystic Meg.

    What can be safely (and non-partisanly) concluded is that the Lib Dems have lost about 2% since the highs of their manifesto and debate bounce. Also on the balance of the polls Labour is still in third place. The Conservatives are around 34-35% in most polls

  21. @ Andrew Walker

    I work with averages regardless of whether some people view one or other poll is a rogue poll. We can only work with the numbers of front of us.

    I think there are a couple more polls out later. Lets see what happens and how things settle down over the next few days.

  22. @James. I agree you work with averages, perhaps over rather more than just three polls. It is the interpretation that is sometimes the issue.

  23. Richard O – Your 5.17 the most sensible thing I’ve read for days

  24. whatever, looks still hung

  25. Anthony

    So you put my comment in moderation, but allow all the other rubbish, some of it far more inflammatory to remain. Good luck with the site and goodbye.

    Shame you can’t apply consistent moderation then I wouldn’t want to stoop as low as many others have done.

    Goodbye to all the bickering, posturing, opinionated partisan rubbish that you let through daily and never remove from the site.

    What is the point in adding sensible comments for discussion when each thread is full of people arguing with each other, sometimes completely off topic and nothing to do with the point of the site? Worse, most of it is unsubstantiated partisan ‘opinion’.

    I highlight it with one post and you moderate it!

    I’ve had to read through personal attacks on people posting, personal attacks on politicians, spin presented as fact, partisan versions of history and so on.

    Having let the door open to such bile, good luck closing it.

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