YouGov’s daily poll is out – the first since the second debate – and it seems to have had virtually no effect. Topline figures with changes since yesterday are CON 34%(nc), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 29%(+1). No significant change since yesterday, and certainly not the sort of massive bounce we saw from the first debate (and realistically, I wouldn’t expect one. The polling last night showed there was no runaway winner of the second debate in the way Nick Clegg won the first, and the effect of Nick Clegg being on the same platform and being given the same stature as the other two leaders was always a ‘one shot’ effect).


204 Responses to “YouGov show no real change from 2nd debate”

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  1. Good evening. How would this transfer into seats with a UNS? Can anyone help?

  2. I would say this is very encouraging for the Tories. Their vote can only go up. The Clegg effect will ware out over the next 2 weeks

  3. Last week the Libs jumped 8% after the debate.
    This week they jumped 1%
    Over the course of the week they have dropped by 1%.
    This is as good as it will ever get for Nick Clegg.

    The red blue gap is 5%.A lot of parties have it 4%. Com Res and AR have it much bigger than that.

    The key question as we turn for the back nine is this, as voters drift from yellow, where do they go?

    Remember more of them came from blue. Will they return from whence they came?

  4. Oh well, Not much change.

    Anymore polls expected this evening?

  5. Seems to support the theory that the debates aren’t the reason for the LibDem’s success.

  6. Tories could still reach 40 from lib dem defectors and labour could still drop from 29

  7. Was expecting Cons and Lab to go up a couple of points after all the attacks on Clegg.

    This result would on uns leave Labour as the largest party.

  8. The fun part seems to be that the SUN happens to comment on this as “Nick Clegg has failed to repeat his poll surge” on their tweet – yet, as a matter of what I think to be fact, he hasn’t given away any points, thus keeping up the level he had the LibDems on, which I think is still unexpectedly high, compared to the polls before the first debate.

    I figure that all parties (except maybe the “others”) will explain the polls as “we’ve won the debates and it shows”… The Cons will do so based on their share of votes (well, okay, in *potential* votes…), the LibDems on their increase in votes and seats, and Labour will argue that this result will give them the biggest number of seats or at least doesn’t give any other party an absolute majority of seats in Westminster…

  9. This poll is good news for the Tories. It shows them maintaining a 5 point lead over Labour and that “rogue” ComRes poll doesn’t look so rogue.
    If the Tories can take a point of Lab & LDs each, once you factor in the marginal effect (i.e. +1% swing from Lab to Tories), this leaves the Tories comfortably the largest party with over 300 seats and Lab down to 230 or so – back to the days of Michael Foot.
    If the Tories continue to sell the line that a hung parliament is bad for the country, they may be able to pick up the extra 20 or so seats to get a majority.
    Given that Sinn Fein don’t take their 4 or 5 seats in Westminster and that the Tories will have the support of at least 1 UUP MP, Mr Cameron is nearly there.

  10. Surely the same could just as easily apply to Labour?

    It’s not a given that the Clegg effect will wear off though, although it’s a fair possibility.

  11. I just posted the below message on the last thread, didn’t seem to generate any queries, but using UKPR’s predictor it would mean Conservatives with most seats but 58 short as opposed to Labour with most seats and 59 short. So not insignificant?

    “I’m sorry to split hairs (and I may be missing something) but if I take Anthony’s table behind the “UKPR Polling Average” and apply all the weightings as he has, the overall weighted average shares of the vote are:
    34 / 27 / 28 not 33 / 27 / 29”

  12. Dan

    We don’t know what is going to happen to the Clegg effect.
    In any case, the poll numbers tonight are within 1 pt of the Yougov poll exactly 7 days ago. How long does and effect have to last before it is regarded as having lasted?

  13. @ Chris Lane

    Sounding slightly desperate.

    I think we are in a genuine 3 party system now, I cant see the Lib Dems dropping below 25%, Labour will be around 25 – 29% and the Tories 30- 34%

  14. I think we should start thinking in terms of Lib/Lab seats as against Tory seats. It seems fairly clear that, on most scenarios, if the Libs and Labs make up the majority, they will form a coalition.

    So, what do these figures us. Tories getting 50 plus Labour seats and losing 10 to Labour? I don’t have the UNS technology, but if Lib/Lab have an overall majority of about 60, then it should be able to weather disaffection from Labour rebels. I am sure many on the Labour benches would be happy to give the LibDems immigration, Europe and faith schools to play with.

    That may change when the international bond markets collapse later this year (maybe early next), but that is not something you wish for. But the first domino of Credit Crunch Round Two more or less fell today.

  15. Status quo.
    Unemployment figures and GDP may have put a hold on things.
    Certainly no move to blues.
    No move to reds
    People are pondering on events
    —- waiting — waiting

  16. It seems to me that with the Lib Dems polling around 30% with two weeks left they are the clear winners of this campaign so far. Of course it could change.

    But I don’t think anyone was predicting that the Lib Dems would be so high with 2 weeks to go, including me.

    If my memory serves me correct many people here were saying the LD would make a net loss of seats in this election. Anything can still happen of course, but that scenario now seems very unlikely.

    Despite whatever spin the Tories or Labour try to put on the campaign so far, the Lib Dems have been the winners if these polls are to be believed.

  17. so put put it in sort knowbody won, and this is not having an effect on the polls. i do think the lib dems are benifiting from being on the same stage as cameron and brown but as people get used to the format there voting prefrance will come back to where it was before the first debate.

  18. Eoin Clarke

    “Remember more of them came from blue”

    Quick visit while the thread is short.

    I think you are confusing % of the decided voters with % of those asked.

    A large part of the additional LD support seemed to come from the undecideds which increased the number of individuals in the pool that the percentages come from. Since YouGov only give percentages and not the weighted numbers, their polls tell you little about any Lab/Con movement.

    Bye!

  19. Every seat counts

  20. @Chris Lane

    “Tories could still reach 40 from lib dem defectors and labour could still drop from 29”

    Well they could do. Why, though? A better debate performance hasn’t helped Labour or the Tories and a less good performance hasn’t damaged the LibDems so what’s going to cause the change?

  21. Anthony

    Please could you tell us what period this covers? Was it 5pm yesterday to 5pm today, or did it start at a different time yesterday?

  22. I would note that the BBC’s take on this poll is : “The Lib Dem’s poll bounce is holding up”.

    (I’m commentating from Canada, btw).

  23. Could this be a sign of yellow vote starting to solidify?
    Their vote has remained pretty stable (well within MoE) since the last debate, and was already climbing prior to that, after their manifesto launch.

    This could mean that they’re going to go the distance.

    Seems like a fairly neutral poll to the reds and blues, not much change. On the other hand they were probably hoping for some gains at the expense of Lib Dems given DC and GB improving their debate performances.

  24. I expect a non stop attack on Clegg from the Tory Press over the next 2 weeks

  25. I think this poll is good news for everyone and bad news for anyone

    it tells us simply that there is all to play for, There is nothing to suggets that any of the parties will continue to rise or fall and all can point to to ‘reasons to be cheerful’

    If I had to choose, on a non partisan basis, I would be happiest if i was labour (steady rise in last few days and the economy coming up next week) and least happy if I was Conservative – huge effort to pull down Clegg in the last two days has had no effect, and still short of a majority, LD marginals not goign to come to Cons even with a few points drop.

    Lib Dems probably worried about a longer term impact of the press hate campaign, and about a few of the policy promises where they have been more detailed (and hence more open to attack), but proably hopeful of another TV debate where Clegg will be on less vulnerable topics

  26. Steady as she goes. Either last night’s debate has changed nothing or it is too early to tell. Here is an update of my opinion polls graph including this result.

    h ttp://i224.photobucket.com/albums/dd161/smart51/pollsaprmay.jpg

  27. Clear also the right-wing onslaught on Clegg has had no effect – i’m no Lib Dem but it’s very satisfying that the public have more sense than the meida give credit to.

    If the Cons were going to pull away, after winning the debate (well according to these right-wing outlets) and the above factor it would have happened tonight.

  28. There is a more sophisticated method of seat projection (than UNS) on Political Betting. The % shares are virtually identical to tonight You Gov. That shows Tories with more votes and seats (NOM), Labour third but with more seats than LIB DEM. What would Nick Clegg do in that scenario?

  29. @Bill O’connor

    34/29/29 at electoral calculus (TV tool not used)

    CON 260
    LAB 267
    LIB 91
    NAT 11
    MIN 3

    LAB short 59 of majority = Lib Lab pact (again…)

    reds and yellows the happiest tonight by far ;-)

  30. This seems to be the only place where you can still find people who think UNS is relevant…why despite the ample evidence that shows that it has been rendered pretty redundant in the present situation do people still keep flogging such a dead horse?

  31. Thanks Colin. Very interesting. After the car crash they are staying in their own lanes.

  32. I prefer Electoral Calculus’s calculator where you can put in a bias for tactical voting. Putting in these latest poll figures with a swing of 4% Tory to Lib Dem and a 10% swing Labour to Lib Dem seat distribution is

    Tories 232
    Labour 260
    Lib Dems 126

    We remain firmly in ‘balanced’ Parliament territory.

    What’s more now that the novelty has worn off, that the Lib Dems have not only held on but increased their share in this latest poll (even though within statistical error) is quite remarkable. Those predicting Lib Dem retreat with such authoritative voices would do well to wait for actual evidence before such pronouncements.

  33. @Stuart Gregory “their voting preference will come back to where it was before the first debate.”

    I think it has, hasn’t it? LDs have only added 2% onto their pre-dabate 27%.

  34. What will now happen is:
    The tories who defected to LDs will defect back to tories giving them 38-40%
    The Labour who defected to the LDs will stay with LDs.

    Result: Labour will suffer the worst vote in its history.
    Tories will get a majority of 20 and stay in power for 10 years.
    LDs will crow because they have won a handful of extra seats.
    Depressing but true. Its inevitable.
    extra seats

  35. @S Webb

    “This poll is good news for the Tories.”

    Objectively speaking none of the polls has been good news for the Tories other than relative to an even worse poll. Compared to pre-campaign expectations both Labour and the LibDems have reasons to be cheerful at this stage; not so the Tories.

  36. Certainly seems to have moved to a new ‘equilibrium’ point, as per Colin’s chart.

    Will be very interesting to watch two weeks of Tory Press vs Twitter. Well, for saddos like me anyway.

  37. think we heading to a slow Tory drift up the polls…slower Lab drift back….to final result below, Lab still largest party…just!

    Con 36% 267
    Lab 30% 274
    Lib Dem 26% 78

  38. chrissl – on the days straight after the debates we don’t start the fieldwork for the next day’s poll until after the debate.

  39. @Yosemite sam

    “There is a more sophisticated method of seat projection (than UNS) on Political Betting”

    You mean the Smithson excel spreadsheet model that- with these figures- project 294-225-99…..you mean a model that heavily biases the Conservatives under the- increasingly creaking assumption- that there are “significant” marginal and regional ‘premiums’ for the Conservatives.

    That model is *incredibly* suspect in a three way fight i.e. one that it never anticipated when Smithson created it… :-)
    .

  40. @ EOIN CLARKE
    Will they return from whence they came?

    I would say yes,
    A Tory, who switched to the LibDems after the 1st debate will return to the Conservatives, and not to Labour or so.
    (it’s sad but it’s true).

  41. I’ve seen people predicting that the post-manifesto Lib Dem vote will return to blues or reds (what about undecided and others?) for over a week now. Still no sign of it happening.
    I suspect we have to consider that it might not happen, the ‘new’ LD voters may stay the course.

    The recent ICM poll saying most people had already decided who to vote for prior to last night’s debate seems to reaffirm this.

  42. Dave: I cannot see how you can say anything is inevitable, this is very close indeed. And there is no evidence for your prediction.

  43. What can be taken from these polls is the fact that the Tory smear campaign on Clegg* have not moved Cleggs vote one bit.

    If anything the biggest losers from Cleggs bounce is in fact the Tories who have gone from being in sight of a very small majority or at worst being biggest party to now not know where they stand.

    *For those that say it wasn’t a Tory smear campaign. Nick Robinson now has evidence, and gone public, that the papers were in fact asked to go to Tory HQ one by one and told how the Tories want to deal with Cleggmania and where given info on Clegg himself by Tory HQ. Of course if you have logged into my blog I did tell you this was going to happen on the morning the meetings took place, many many hours before it happened :-).

  44. Are there any other polls out tonight?

    rich

  45. Since the campaign began, when YouGov changed their methodology, the average poll ratings from the 6th April to the 15th April inclusive, were

    Con – 39%
    Lab – 31.5%

    Since the first debate, so from the 16th Apr. until the 23rd Apr. inclusive, the average poll ratings with YouGov are

    Con – 33%
    Lab – 28%.

    Will the gap continue narrowing or widen again over the next week ?

  46. The problem with the smear stories is that they will have a 1% effect (not affect note) for five minutes but are now as forgotten as the volcano, let alone over a million people homeless, orphaned, bereaved and deprived in Haiti.

    If YouGov’s people filled in their computer forms after they absorbed this mornings’ TV and press with the cornflakes, the debates (for those to whom it applied) would also be receding from memory.

    IIRC it starts from yesterday afternoon to about 1600 today.

    AW could you please fill us in on that? Do people get their emails to take part a day or two before but told not to submit until a certain hour has passed? How does it work please?

  47. Anthony

    What is the percentage of likely to vote DKs still out there?

  48. On a knife edge – fantastic stuff (for the non-partisan especially).

  49. @Amber – the B-side to Piccadilly Palare.

  50. @redrag,

    I think some of what you suggest is probably true in terms of Tory HQ and attacking Clegg, but this is only comparable to the sort of stuff we have seen from Mandelson, and even more so Alastair Campbells office over the years, sometimes on individuals who were far less well prepared to deal with it than Clegg.

    rich

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