ComRes meanwhile have the result as 33% thinking Clegg won, and Cameron and Brown in equal second place on 30%. So Clegg ahead rather than Cameron, and a closer spread between the three party leaders than with YouGov’s figures. Angus Reid’s current figures also have Clegg ahead of Cameron by much the same margin (35% to 33% as I type, but they are not final figures), but have a much lower rating for Brown.

We have different polls calling different winners, but what is very clear is that Nick Clegg has not been the same sort of runaway winner with the public that he was in the first debate. This was a much closer run thing.

UPDATE: Since they are already cropping up in the comments, these three are the only legitimate instant polls of the debate I am aware of (though other companies may well deliver figures tomorrow morning). Other things, like the Channel 4 website poll, will be open access voodoo polls that will not be representative of wider public opinion… even if you prefer the result.

UPDATE2:
The final Angus Reid figures are Clegg 33%, Cameron 32%, Brown 23%


372 Responses to “…but ComRes have Clegg ahead”

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  1. I think the Tories were incensed by the leaflet, as if they lost the pensioner vote, they would probably finish last. Really the pensioner vote is critical to the Tories, so it really matters to them.

  2. Smoke from the vatican: pope calls it for Brown.

  3. It’s interesting how quickly old perspectives can change.

    A week ago the libdems were also rans, not expected to achieve much more than holding on to their existing seats.

    Then came the first debate, with the massive Clegg hype.

    Now politics is back to normal with a roughly three way split in the debate (although Brown is consistently bottom). Would this have been normal a week ago?

    Given that the ‘who won’ question leaves much to interpretation, people probably pick according to partisan lines, I’d suggest that the electorate is now split three ways. The wow-factor is gone, but the new landscape remains.

    My prediction for now is that the tories will poll most, but not much above 35. Labour won’t breach 30, but the libdems will.

    Think about what that means even if there is no PR deal, but a hung Parliament with a new election within a year…

  4. If the Lib Dems actually became the government this country would be run by civil servants as the Lib Dems simply haven’t gt enough people with much experience. On the other hand if they end up being part of a coalition they are going to have time to learn. If they do well they will be in a very good position for a game changing play at the next election.

  5. I think a key thing will be how the media portray the debate – the viewing figures will be well down on last week so for many it will come down to what they read in the paper or see on the news. A significant part of the story last week was the fact that the media had all expected Cameron to win easily and were shocked when he fell flat.

  6. @Colin – largely agree with your fair and balanced assessment. Also much preferred the ITV version to Sky – no sense of drama or urgency from Boulton, and the whole event felt a bit stale.

    The key question is how will it affect the polls? I don’t pretend to know, but on the simple fact that Clegg did OK, this should be good news for the Lib Dems – maybe not an increase, but no rapid deflation either. This, and the backlash at the media assault makes me believe they are here to stay all the way to polling day.

    Better by Brown – not sure that this will improve their polling though, as I can’t see where the inncrease would come from as I doubt any Con – Lab switchers. At least labour might hope to have avoided a wholesale meltdown with their supporters switching to Clegg.

    The Cameron Conundrum – a better performance, but he was only one of three, not the out and out star. Basically this isn’t good news for him. he is now locked in a three way fight having lost a lot of ground to the Lib Dems. As the former Golden Boy his failure to land the knock out blow raises the chances of success for Brown’s long game strategy of having ‘a second look at the Tories’.

    Labour most relieved, Lib Dems happiest, Tories still edgy. If it’s going to happen for Brown at all, it’s going to happen very late in the day.

  7. Difficult for Clegg on the immigration issue.He was clearly cheesed off that he knew it was costing him votes every time he mentioned it.Even as a Labour supporter I think Clegg has the best policy in this area, but I doubt most people would agree.

  8. Times Populus NC 36 % DC 36 % GB 27%

  9. @Eoin Clarke (10.34)

    “A small point for LAbour to gripe about is that the audience seemed either Lib or Tory. But I suppose their are not many reds down that neck of the words.”

    Eoin,
    I guess you are referring to the audience laughs as that was essentially the only audience involvement. I suspect that the reason NC & DC raised more laughs is because Brown just can’t do funnys.

  10. The key point in the debate, for me, was the exchange on the banking system. I thought Clegg’s insistence on splitting retail and investment banking came over strong, and the other two failing to even address the issue looked evasive. I suspect this may strike a chord with others.

    Overall, I’d mark it the same as last week: Clegg top, then Brown, then Cameron. However, since this order aligns with my own political preference, I’m fully prepared (unlike others who shall be nameless) to accept I may be merely seeing what I want to see.

  11. If it was really a dead heat, that can only be good news for Clegg,
    Don’t know what the viewing figures were for tonight, but if even a million people watched who didn’t watch last time, that’s 300,000 more converts to the Lib Dem cause.

    On a different note, just think: in two weeks’ time we’ll be digesting the results of the official polling day exit poll. That’s the actual election – only TWO WEEKS TO GO!!!

  12. @Paul Croft – “Smoke from the vatican: pope calls it for Brown.”
    No – it’s just the staff burning all the paperwork relating to abusive priests before the court cases start……

  13. Boulton and SKY overall was very poor – I mean Kay Burley performing the summing up after the debate shows how poor they were. Never thought I’d say this but ITV’s debate was far better covered and moderated.

    BBC although will show them how it’s done.

  14. @DavidB: after 13 years in opposition, the Tories don’t have much experience either. New Labour had no experience either in 1997. You can’t base your vote solely on experience or there would never be a change of Government.

  15. Andy JS:

    “Clegg most normal voice to English ears”.

    And to Dutch and Spanish ones as well I imagine.

  16. I think asking people to give an impartial view of a political debate is the most impossible thing I can imagine.

    If Nick Griffin had been on it, and had talked fluently, with charm and wit, setting out clearly what his policies were and why…… would any of us rate him the winner, given that we all hate him and don’t agree with a single word he says?

  17. @ Christopher

    I agree that Kay Burley was hideous.

    I have never got on with Sky news, it’s like Fox lite…

    I can’t wait to see Aunty run a debate, hopefully with David Dimbleby

  18. @Eoin

    “If I was a Lib which I will never EVER be, I would be outraged.”

    Eoin,
    knew you weren’t a LD but hoped you might come round eventually. Never mind, I will still look for your posts and hold them in high regard.

  19. @ Toby – 2 weeks seems like such a long time at the moment!

  20. Has anyone else heard a rumour of a post election voting intention poll from Comres with LD 36, Con 35 and Labour 24?

  21. That should have been post DEBATE voting intention poll

  22. Averages from YG, Com Res, AR & Populus

    NC 33.5 DC 33.5 GB 27.25

    All very close, last debate could be anyones

  23. @ Christopher

    “BBC although will show them how it’s done.”

    I think i’d agree with you there, in comparison to Sky, ITV was high brow! And I never thought I would say that.

  24. @PAUL CROFT

    ‘Andy JS:

    “Clegg most normal voice to English ears”.

    And to Dutch and Spanish ones as well I imagine.

    AND German and French actually – see Wikipedia

  25. Times/Populus Poll:-

    Cameron – 37%
    Clegg – 36%
    Brown – 26%

  26. Sorry if this has already been asked but have we found a way to explain Angus Reid’s persistent downplaying of the Labour vote/the pro-Brown vote in the leaders debates? Just institutional bias?

  27. @Yakobs
    If so, Comres are not showing what YouGov is showing.

  28. “Has anyone else heard a rumour of a post election voting intention poll from Comres with LD 36, Con 35 and Labour 24?”

    That’s the unweighted poll results… last weeks were Con 36, LD 35, Lab 24… but they were weighted across GB to Con 35, Lab 28, LD 24…

    ComRes’ website hasn’t published the weighted ones yet

  29. why was brown attacking clegg ?

    is it just me or should the man have been digging into cameron ?

    or was this a purposeful ploy ?

    to get back some voters in the marginals ?

  30. “Has anyone else heard a rumour of a post election voting intention poll from Comres with LD 36, Con 35 and Labour 24?”

    The full impact won’t show for a day or two since not everyone watches them and it takes time to people to talk/absorb media etc. Also only 5% others seems very low.

    “Personally thought Brown was better than Clegg or Cameron, just more substance to his answers, but he’s never going to win these polls because too many people refuse to listen to anything he says.”

    Perhaps they do listen and simply disagree with him?

  31. @YAKOBS

    ‘Has anyone else heard a rumour of a post election voting intention poll from Comres with LD 36, Con 35 and Labour 24?’

    Do you mean post-debate ???

  32. @Yakobs

    Yes, John rentoul of the Independent had a Tweet !about an hour ago” saying “ComRes Clegg 33 Cameron 30 Brown 30 Voting intention among those who watched Con 35 -1 Lab 24 nc LD 36 +1 almost same as last week.”

  33. @Garry – she’s so airy fairy – she should stick to bullying that nice Peter Andre. There was one moment when she was speaking to the writter of the ‘Thick of it’ and he stated Brown came second and Cameron 3rd – she snapped back ‘only because you’re a Labour voter’ – she asked the same question but never snapped back at such force to other answers.

    I watched Sky’s coverage on BBC. lol

    By the way it is Dimbleby

  34. And to Dutch and Spanish ones as well I imagine.

    from Paul Croft above …our token BNP supporter are you Paul?

  35. @ Anthony

    Anthony are you planning to update the summary list of polls under “Latest Voting Intention” and the table behind “More….” for the UKPR Voting Intnetion, to include the 6 most recent polls, ie
    IPSOS/MORI, Harris/Metro, YouGov x 2, TNS/BMRB, ComRes

  36. It seems alot of people here are making the mistake of taking these polls as reflecting voting intentions. Saying someone won a debate doesnt mean you will necessarily vote for them.

    On the other hand, there is a story to these debates. People seem to have a short memory. Prior the debates the Cons where very close to an out-right majority, with Lab floundering at 32% and the Libs in no mans land with 20% (even though the ICM poll on the 15th seems to indicate that the Lib surge was already materializing prior the debate). After that debate, we had the Lib surge, Cons dropping to 32-3%, ie miles away from where they need to be to win this, and Lab dropping a good 5 points and going to 27%.

    What is unfortunate is that 32/27/30 is not that bad for Lab but is disasterous for Cons. So what the Cons needed today was to show ppl where they truly are a shoulder above the rest and deserve to be trusted with running this country. Yet i doubt that what seems to be a three way tie could do that. The Libs will be happy with this because they held strong, coming out ahead on a number of polls – lets be honest we all expected the Libs to drop under the pressure as we think that they are not ready for the big game. Did that happen? A clear no is the answer, so i read that as very poistive for the Libs.

    Labs too have something to be happy about as GB did very well tonight. He didnt win, but after all he never can, 1) because he has as much charisma as a door mat 2) his negatives are too high and too ingrained for ppl to all of a sudden say “hey one moment i actually like this guy”. But the fact that with all his baggage GB can come out par with DC in one of the polls should be sounding the alarms big time in Con HQ.

    Has this sealed the deal? No. Still to much to play for and the last debate will definitely be the most important. In terms of my reading of this I would say that very little will change, maybe at best Lab returning to 30% and Cons solidifying at 33-34%. Though things could still go tits up for Lab because of the leaflet saga (definitely not a good response by GB on that one).

    Now, in terms of my personal bias, I dont know you lot but the most exciting parts of the debate where when Nick and Gordon where going at each other. There seemed to me to be a spark and a shoot at some genuine debate. Whilst DC tried to stay aloof looking down on the two squabbling, i rather got the impression that he didnt have strong enough opinions to argue about, was passionate about the debate and looked rather detached and disengaged. On the other had the other 2 looked more alive and genuine, genuine about their difference but also about the discussion that we need to have which after all that is what politics is about. BUT ONCE AGAIN THAT IS MY BIAS AND IS SIMPLY OPINION (i hope thats a good enough disclaimer(smiley)).

    Overall, thumbs up for the debate and thumbs down to sky, expected much better from them.

  37. @CSV
    Can’t explain it exactly, but I think AR take account of the usual discrepency between pre-election polling for Labour, and their actual vote tally – let’s say 3-4%. Add that to your AR polls and they are much the same as the others.

  38. Are those not on the ‘left’ allowed to post on here?

    I’ve never read such a load of one-sided guff in all my life! Where is the centrist/right leaning opinion?

    I guess many folk of a leftist persuasion can delay bed time as they don’t have to be up too early in the morning.

  39. David T

    Thanks, that explains it…….I think

  40. Yakobs

    The 36/35/24 values are just for people who watched the programme… i’m guessing they profile those people and extrapolate a voting intention across GB

  41. “Guardian/ICM post-debate poll puts Clegg on 33%, Brown and Cameron both on 29%”

  42. A lot seem to be treating the percentages in opinion polls as if they come from a fixed pool, and the only change is from internal movement. To a small extent that may occur but i FEEL most change, from now on, will come from don’t knows making a final decision.

    I have always felt that all logic points to the fact that more voters who have already decided would already be committed Tories, rather than Labour [obvious reasons given past two years and more] or the Lib Dems [who?]

    I therefore feel there is less potential for them in the “undecided pool”, which is why I doubt that they can get above 35% in the GE.

  43. MikeP: you just beat me to it.

    The only tiny, minuscule criticism I would have of this website is that there is so often a lag in the updating of the full list of polls and thus the poll of polls. It’s now almost 23 April (actually where I live it already is) and there’s nothing since 20th showing on the right!
    Or am I just neurotic… :-)

  44. Any possibility choice of questions may have benefited David Cameron?

    “Questions will be selected by a panel of Sky News staff, including political editor Adam Boulton.”

    The rest of the Murdoch empire have hardly been impartial today!

  45. @ ALEC

    “This, and the backlash at the media assault makes me believe they are here to stay all the way to polling day. ”

    I agree Alec.

    “before the court cases start……”

    Are there going to be any Alec?-seriously?

  46. A very even debate – Brown’s rating down on the other two because the electorate do seem to be a bit down on him, but he did fine within his own parameters I thought.

    My man NC held his own at least – If he does so again, a final vote near or over 30% looks very likely, and at least 25 gains.

    I thought Adam Boulton chaired the debate in a more related manner then Alaistair Stewart, who tried get chp and change between the pannalists to often. Can’t comment on kay Burley because I watched the event on BBC News. IF she really did lack balance then maybe Sky will lose the 3rd debate to C4 next time

  47. any news on ICM poll?

    Com Res and You Gov 2 different results – ICM to decide. Angus Reid -pah – funny though SKY reported on this poll but don’t report AR in their rolling polls summary.

  48. AR poll Anthony will not be adversely criticised by you because of collegiate good manners but I think you should know that it is very unlikely that the majority of posters here would regard it as anything as a joke. I mean there are outliers but 23 against 35 and 36 is so far away from the other two as to lack any credibility.

    AR needs to look at its method very carefully indeed.

  49. “Times/Populus – Clegg and Cameron joint winners

    Clegg: 36%

    Cameron: 36%

    Brown: 27%

    Guardian/ICM – Clegg won

    Clegg: 33%

    Cameron: 29%

    Brown: 29%

    ITV/ComRes – Clegg won

    Clegg: 33%

    Brown: 30%

    Cameron: 30%

    Angus Reid – Clegg won

    Clegg: 35%

    Cameron: 33%

    Brown: 23%

    YouGov – Cameron won

    Cameron: 36%

    Clegg: 32%

    Brown: 29%

    And here’s an average of all five polls

    Clegg: 33.8%

    Cameron: 32.8%

    Brown: 27.6%
    So, it’s definitely a win for Clegg. But not by much.”

    *All this is from the guardian, and not compiled by myself

  50. Just seen your update (32 33 23) but my view stands.

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