ComRes meanwhile have the result as 33% thinking Clegg won, and Cameron and Brown in equal second place on 30%. So Clegg ahead rather than Cameron, and a closer spread between the three party leaders than with YouGov’s figures. Angus Reid’s current figures also have Clegg ahead of Cameron by much the same margin (35% to 33% as I type, but they are not final figures), but have a much lower rating for Brown.

We have different polls calling different winners, but what is very clear is that Nick Clegg has not been the same sort of runaway winner with the public that he was in the first debate. This was a much closer run thing.

UPDATE: Since they are already cropping up in the comments, these three are the only legitimate instant polls of the debate I am aware of (though other companies may well deliver figures tomorrow morning). Other things, like the Channel 4 website poll, will be open access voodoo polls that will not be representative of wider public opinion… even if you prefer the result.

UPDATE2:
The final Angus Reid figures are Clegg 33%, Cameron 32%, Brown 23%


372 Responses to “…but ComRes have Clegg ahead”

1 2 3 8
  1. And 100% of those polled thought Sky did a terrible job of picking the questions and Adam Boulton was a totally useless moderator.

  2. No big win for Clegg this week, Cameron doing about the same and a rise for Brown. If this is reflected in the polls over the next few days I would expect a fall for the Libs, a rise for Labour and the Conservatives about the same, maybe 30/30/30 soon?

  3. I reckon Clegg came first with Brown a close second. Cameron is out of his comfort zone. He’s losing it and he knows it.

  4. One of the interesting numbers for me on the AR reaction poll is the are you more/less likely to vote for a particular party?

    LD score neutral so far, C and L have more people saying less likely to vote

  5. @Gary M G,

    Can’t see that at all.

    I thought Clegg was ok, Brown better than last week, & Cameron much better.

    YouGov prediction for tomorrow;

    Conservatives 36%
    Labour 28%
    Libs 25%

  6. Think Brown is being hard done by, he was by far the most prime ministerial. Cameron much better than last week. The two of them laid down what they were offering, and the choices you had.

    Clegg an utter irrelevance.

  7. Really quite disappointing compared to last week – too much repetition. I would have thought they would each have come up with some new focus. Maybe keeping it for next week.

    I would go with a pretty equal split on performance, but Sky weaker, agree with AP comments above.

  8. …and from that we know Cameron & Brown were much better this week and the Clegg Bubble is starting to deflat. — Hung Parliment methinks, but me hopes not!

  9. Agree Boulton very poor.

    Anyone know how ITV are reporting Nick Clegg still ahead?

    Presumably DC joint last will be declared the greatest comeback since ole Lazarus?

  10. Hopefully Brown will win asap. I have had enough of all this democracy.

  11. Anthony,

    perfect synopsis

  12. I felt Boulton was poor as well – not enough energy to the debate and that was Boultons fault.

    Definately good night for Brown though – anything that puts him level with the other 2 when he his so personally unpopular in comparison has got to be considered a victory for him.

  13. Oh and Boulton stick to newsreading… moderating aint for you! Stewart 1 Boulton 0

  14. Love how most of the polls say Clegg won, but sky are reporting the only one (Yougov/Sun) which says Cameron won.

  15. Paddy Ashdown on ITV just said Clegg won 4/5 polls. Any ideas what the other two were?

  16. Adam Boulton / SKY were shocking. The questions selected were pretty weak.

  17. I thought Brown was doing pretty well until he started attacking the others & fluffed it. The Cameron attack about dishonest leaflets hit the mark, too IMHO.

  18. Watch out, there’s a surge in postal voting……….

  19. Apparently snap ComRes voting intention post debate gives 36% to LDs

  20. Does anyone beleive that Brown’s denial of authorizing these leaflets will lead to photogrpahs of such leaflets apearing on our tv screens and on the front pages of the reactionary press?

  21. I think Labour is doing a good job of highlighting the risks of change for people in specific situations such as pensioners, which may pay dividends over time

  22. 30 – 30 with Cameron has to be a good result for Brown…. and Clegg must be happy to be still either ahead or right in there. Expect more favours by Murdoch etc for Cameron. We WILL have a Tory government the right wing press say.

  23. Ignore any voting intentions you see from anywhere tonight.

    They are not weighted

    They do not include others

    And on Comres form they are probably automated phone calls

  24. @Dutch
    I think Labour will not mind the controversy if it keeps the story running that the Tories are going to withdraw free bus passes for pensioners

  25. The other day I predicted another Lib Dem surge after this debate and polling +35 at the weekend. I also predict LDs polling in the high 30s possibly reaching as high as 40 by polling day.

  26. If Clegg is right up there, even if not such a runaway winner, i would expect the Libdem figures to hold pretty steady in the polls, at least till the next big event,

  27. I can’t see how people can look at this poll, with Clegg ahead, and say that LD numbers will fall?

    Being somewhat versed in US presidential debates, I’d say that UK media will need to adjust from last week to the idea that MOST debates do not produce a massive change like the first one did. I’d predict we’ll see little movement tomorrow, and little movement in the coming days.

    The only way a dramatic change was going to come out of this debate was if Brown messed up and the election became a two-horse race, but he didn’t and it clearly won’t.

    32/32/29 tomorrow is my prediction – the only losers tonight were the minor parties, and that will clearly continue next week too.

  28. ComRes is a lot better for Labour and Brown. And the ComRes voting intention poll seems to be the unweighted version.

  29. @Graham: I can’t see how you can conclude the Clegg bubble is deflating. He didn’t bomb & no-one landed a knockout blow. The polls on who did best seem pretty close to recent VI polls, excluding the latest YouGov daily.

  30. @Dutch,

    Yes I did have a sharp intake of breath when he said, “I didn’t authorise those”. Could be some egg on local agents’ faces methinks..

  31. Urgh, I wish there was some way of preventing tv broadcasters publishing unweighted website polls during an election campaign…

    But yeah, I think the general message of all three polls is about right. There was no runaway winner, and by and large Clegg and Cameron did better than Brown.

  32. @Robert Eggleston

    “Apparently snap ComRes voting intention post debate gives 36% to LDs”

    If you’re right, then Clegg is fireproof. He clearly didn’t dominate like last week, even if he came first narrowly. And yet the LibDem voting intention rises by more than 7% overnight?!

  33. @Eoin

    What’s your prediction for tomorrow’s polls then ?

    I just love this website/forum.

  34. Any viewing figures yet?

  35. I agree that Sky were poor tonight. I wish Channel 4 had hosted this as Jon Snow is much superior.

  36. @Rob A

    Agreeeeed!

    Sky and their obvious bias. Even after the good for clegg polls came out, and flashed in the bottom of their screen, their interviews ‘you lost the interview’……….ermmm really??

  37. Pretty even steven I thought.The press will run it as Cameron’s comeback and Clegg crumbling sadly .I thought Clegg did ok but he needed to be fantastic to live up to his previous week’s press.
    I don’t think it was a game changer.

  38. Not sure Nick Clegg “doing OK” will necessarily keep LD vote steady.

    To quote Monty Python. “He’s not the Messiah!”

  39. Bizarre discussions on Sky. Discussing the hair of the candidates with a sketch artists.

    And Quentin Letts, saying he liked a line made by Gordon Brown.

  40. In terms of performance from the 3 leaders: Both Brown and Cameron did better than last week but I don’t think anyone leader had a runaway victory. The fact that it was pretty much a 3 way tie doesn’t hurt the LDs because they still got 90 mins exposure on equal terms with Con and Lab. Interesting observation from the worm holding Ipsos Mori focus group: the group is happier when the politicians don’t pick on each other. So overall the attacks on Clegg by Brown and Cameron were probably neutral at best for them.

  41. ” a rise for Labour and the Conservatives about the same, maybe 30/30/30 soon?”

    ?? So that would be a DROP for the Tories, then?

    “The other day I predicted another Lib Dem surge after this debate and polling +35 at the weekend. I also predict LDs polling in the high 30s possibly reaching as high as 40 by polling day.”

    Oh gawd here we go again……….hearts and brains swapping places. I do wish these lib demmers would get a grip of reality.

  42. So according to You Gov, Clegg scored 19% less than last week. How can they spin that to be good?

  43. A much better performance by David Cameron this evening and indeed Gordon Brown. I maybe the only one in the Country but I am getting just a touch fed up with Cleggs smugness

  44. On leaflets, Labour have no morals.. I received one here in Bristol South that asserted the only possible winners here are Labour and Conservative and that voting Liberal is an absolute waste (clearly they’d rather have Cons vote going up here, knowing full well they have no chance). What an unashamed twisting of the truth to underhandedly try to claim victory, because their promises won’t do it on their own. No chance at all I’ll vote Primarolo again (I have before).

  45. Holy crap, is that a real question?

  46. Of the three debates, I expected Cameron to have the best chance to score real points on this one and Clegg to get beaten up by the other two going for him, especially over Europe.

    Cameron didn’t look at all convincing. He did a bit better than last time in some areas, but he didn’t win. He’s a brilliant speaker when noone argues with him, but not when people stand up to him, when he goes red in the face and looks flustered.

    Clegg could never have done remotely as well as last time because expectations were higher, but he looked composed, was combative and didn’t wilt under the onslaught, arguing his case effectively.

    Brown improved a lot. He was more aggressive and more effective (he couldn’t have been less so), but he should really have won – he is the sitting PM, after all. But Iraq hangs round his neck like a noose and he is probably history as far as the electorate is concerned..

    Overall, I’d score it:

    Clegg 7.5
    Brown 7
    Cameron 6.5

    So no decisive winner and no knockout blows. But I can’t get away from the fact that Clegg is a much more attractive, photogenic personality than Cameron or Brown. It shouldn’t count – but for some voters, it will.

    I anticipate a modest rise (2-3%) in the Lib Dem vote at the expense of both the others.

  47. Brown confirmed the LIb Dem intention to have an in/out referendum on Europe.

    Sky/murdoch anti Clegg bias was just sooooo obvious! In 4/5 years time Sky should not be allowed to host one of these.

    In terms of who won…

    Brown was Brown …he must stop doing that inane grin routine when others are talking… the camera is still on you.. fool! 6/10

    Cameron was still stilted, better than last week but I’m still not impressed. 6/10

    Clegg did what he did last week but included policy detail, however, he could not and did not run away with it. Definitely gave the best closing speech. 7.5/10

  48. Clegg came under more intense scrutiny this week but still appears to have won two out of the three post debate polls. When you consider where the Lib Dems were prior to this debate I think that is significant.

    Cameron really needs to land a killer punch and despite tough questioning on Europe/Immigration/Trident (which people argue are the Lib Dems weakest policies) Nick Clegg held up well. I would expect Lib Dems to remain at around the 30% mark after this…

  49. I wonder how Cameron’s stance on the EU will affect UKIP votes. It won’t win them back, I wouldn’t have thought.

  50. @Rob A

    Wow, that can’t be a real question can it?

1 2 3 8