ComRes meanwhile have the result as 33% thinking Clegg won, and Cameron and Brown in equal second place on 30%. So Clegg ahead rather than Cameron, and a closer spread between the three party leaders than with YouGov’s figures. Angus Reid’s current figures also have Clegg ahead of Cameron by much the same margin (35% to 33% as I type, but they are not final figures), but have a much lower rating for Brown.

We have different polls calling different winners, but what is very clear is that Nick Clegg has not been the same sort of runaway winner with the public that he was in the first debate. This was a much closer run thing.

UPDATE: Since they are already cropping up in the comments, these three are the only legitimate instant polls of the debate I am aware of (though other companies may well deliver figures tomorrow morning). Other things, like the Channel 4 website poll, will be open access voodoo polls that will not be representative of wider public opinion… even if you prefer the result.

UPDATE2:
The final Angus Reid figures are Clegg 33%, Cameron 32%, Brown 23%


372 Responses to “…but ComRes have Clegg ahead”

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  1. Eoin:

    I missed the earlier exchanges whilst typing and made the mistake of reading the third paragraph of your original post as…. well ….. a single paragraph making a connecting point, I suppose.

    As I’ve written before, you’d make a jolly good politician.

    I don’t agree that Nick Clegg “over-performed” in the first debate at all. My guess is that an editor could cut and mix parts from both debates and someone who had seen neither would see a continuum in the way he came over.

  2. Apologies to all for my butter-fingered typing in the last posting. Too little sleep last night I think.

  3. @Billy Bob
    ta very much, this is the first site I’ve felt comfortable in posting comments , so thanks to AW and all other posters
    @Sue Marsh
    I agree that the Labour strategy, playing the long game, playing on people’s fears of change, is well thought out and they are adhering to it well, but they have been very fortunate in that the Tories are all over the place, DC personal preference, I believe, was to run a postive campaign , whether this was naivity on his part I dont know, and now are having to fight on two fronts.
    My biggest worry in that in the past, the last two or three days of the campaign has often seen a seepage of the Labour vote, but there is very little Labour can do at this stage except keep solid and tight and keep their fingers crossed

  4. @paul,

    I dont think he overperformed on purspose. I dont think a human is capapble of stage managing performance to that degree. I simply meant on purse math that he score 50% in 1 and 30% in two

    had he only scored 35% in one he may have scored 40% in to… Mike Sergeant for the BBC has a blog where he argues something similar. It was not a criticism of Clegg. It was a strategic analysis. :)

  5. Eoin is right to say that Clegg had a tough task last night to deliver on the expectations created by the first debate. However it’s hard to see that as a tactical blunder because:

    – As has been said, it wasn’t a deliberate ploy by anyone to achieve that result

    – the boost the the LibDems (not just in terms of popularity but also in tangible membership, finance and voter registration) came at the right time – any later in the campaign and views are getting too set

    – he did well enough in Debate 2 to confirm his position as an equal player and indeed was rated first in some polls. The fact that his ratings were down on debate 1 is less important that the fact that they were still very strong. In Debate 1 he was a novelty – I would rate his achievement last night as the greater, especially after the Tory press attacks.

    He now goes into Debate 3 with two strong performances under his belt and a narrative of a winner. I just don’t buy this idea that the LDs are now a spent force and I will be surprised if the average LD polls by time next week are very different from now. What may well change is the Con/Lab gap though.

    However I am keeping the humble pie in the fridge in case I’ve called it totally wrong!

  6. To what extent will the next few opinion polls determine each parties’ strategy for the next week? Indeed, at this stage in the campaign, how much scope is there for each party to change tactics/strategy?

    If the C share improves (or stays the same) will they be encouraged to continue with the line “vote Clegg get Brown”? If it declines however…what are the options? Perhaps they just stick to the same message?

    To an extent the Lab share can decline a little further without presenting C with an overall majority. So, I imagine that Lab will continue their current line of “don’t threaten the recovery”.

    If the LD share either stabilises or increases LD will continue with the “change” message.

    But what if the LD share starts to decline? What does NC do? Indeed, can Lab afford to ‘lend’ more votes to the LDs as (a) it’s better to lose a seat to LD than to Con, and (b) inflating the LD vote will help protect LD seats that are Con targets. Will the LDs become more inclined to acknowledge the need to ‘work’ with Lab to ensure a HD?

  7. Eoin:

    I do wish you’d stop reacting as you do as I then find myself needing to respond.

    I gave an opinion that the CONCEPT of “winning a debate” is abstract and ridiculous, not that your using that verdict was such.
    I think that was very clear from my original post.

    I simply don’t agree with your view that Clegg was guilty of poor strategy in doing so – particulary since, as others have said, he could hardly control that eventuality anyway.

    I must practice: I’ll be glad when this is all over!

  8. Leslie,

    “deliberate ploy”- I dont think it was either.

    The tactical blunder was the interview Clegg gave to the telegraph….

    Lost in translation I guess.

  9. Sue M

    I think there is a misunderstanding in your post.

    Last night’s polls were about ‘who won the debate’ not ‘who will you now vote for’.

    Can anyone confirm this please?

  10. In my last post I think ‘HD’ should be ‘HP’.

  11. @Howard,

    Whilst your right,

    I think Sue knows this already. She is just linking these figures to likely future voting trends.

  12. Totally Howard, sorry if it wasn’t clear. The main point was no gap between Lab and Con.

    NO GAP!!

    After the last debates, GB came out terribly on the instant polls but much better on the “real” or voting intention polls.

    Last night he did VERY much better in the instant reaction polls.
    I think I will keep posting no gap until you all comment on how spectacular that actually is.

    Cameron stunk as badly as Brown OR
    Brown performed as well as Cameron.

    Whichever way you prefer.

  13. Some considered reasoning here this morning as opposed to some of the ‘tweeting ‘ last night which I am grateful to have missed.

    It seems to me that the die is very much cast and the challenge is with Clegg. If he sticks to the Cable line, it will only benefit Brown (‘I agree with Gord’) since their financial message is the same.

    DC, in his turn, is put in a corner by the growing FGF and the confirmation of it by today’s data which were a godsend to Mandy’s plans (not too much, not too little).

    I thus see that NC and DC (sounds like a pop group) will be reduced to trying to find a new message while GB goes on talking like a bank manager while spending like a pools winner for ‘jobs, jobs, jobs’.

    But you never know about another volcano or some such.

  14. The ‘Get real Nick’ is getting a lot of focus on TV today – anything else that was covered is lost in the detail – only 4million watched the debate the rest will be picking highlights on the news.

    Brown could end up with a bounce from this.

  15. Sue

    Yes there was a very clear correlation between the ‘who won’ and the likely trend and I just wanted to check that we all had our facts right, thank you.

  16. Eoin, I agree that Clegg’s Telegraph interview was ill-considered. Shades of Kinnock in 1992. But in truth i don’t think many people noticed, so if a tactical blinder it was a small one.

    On a different subject I’m surprised that neither of the other two debatees have tried to put Clegg on the spot by demanding that he makes clear who he would support if the Tories had the most votes but Labour had the most seats in the event of a hung parliament. This has always been an Achilles heel for the LibDems since it is a potential vote and party-splitter. Clegg is doing his best but he is surely vulnerable to a “get real, Nick” challenge if he fudges during a debate.

  17. Blunder not blinder, though perhaps the polls will show that my typo was right!

  18. Leslie

    ‘so if a tactical blinder it was a small one’

    I know that was a typo but it did make me chuckle at the oxymoronic concept it threw up. :-)

  19. Yes, but NO GAP!!!

  20. I must agree with SUE here. The NO GAP between GB and DC is astounding, and i am intrigued as how this will play in the polls (though i still presume that the GB negatives are too strong to entirely close the gap).

    so yes I too want to strongly point out the enormity of the NO GAP!!!!!!!!

  21. @Howard (11.06)

    “It seems to me that the die is very much cast and the challenge is with Clegg. If he sticks to the Cable line, it will only benefit Brown (’I agree with Gord’) since their financial message is the same.”

    Howard, I tend to disagree. My recollection is that Cable made clear his perspective before Darling did so. In addition, Cable is seen as the economics expert by most people (ahead of Darling or Brown – whose economic ability has been somewhat tarnished in the last 1 – 2 years)

    Consequently, providing Clegg uses the correct phrases, emphasising Cable as the expert etc. then it may benefit Brown (2 vs 1) but it will have equal or greater benefit to the Lib Dems.

  22. I’m new to following polls and have a question. Looking back at historical data it always seems to me that in a general election Labour seem to be several percentage points down on what their support seems to be in the opinion polls running up to an election. The Tories seem to be there or there abouts and in some cases higher.
    If this trend continues will it be enough to mean that we may yet have a Tory government?

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