YouGov’s instant poll has David Cameron as the narrow winner of the second debate, the full figures are Cameron 36%, Clegg 32%, Brown 29%.

The latest figures from Angus Reid have Clegg narrowly ahead – Clegg 35%, Cameron 33%, Brown 23% – but they will continue collecting data overnight.


86 Responses to “YouGov call Cameron as winner of 2nd debate”

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  1. First, the poll sounds about like how I saw things.

    Second…I wonder how that’s going to impact the polls. Overall, that sounds like the status quo of Cameron and Clegg wrestling over the lead while Brown trails will continue.

  2. AR panellists not watching the same debate as the rest of us?

    YG closer to reality… but I’d call GB a close 2nd to DC.

  3. Result will be not much change from before.

  4. YouGov sounds about right to me.

  5. What do we actually mean by “winning” the debate? Do we actually mean win the arguments or just win over the most voters?

  6. Why is You Gov declaring a winner from a poll where the result is within the MOE?

  7. I’d say all three were pretty even really. No major mess-ups but also nothing particularly inspiring. Certainly not the excitement of last week.

  8. Clegg was a desperate third tonight as the other two landed heavy blows on him. I suspect the any polls suggesting Clegg won merely show he’s still enjoying last week’s 1st debate honeymoon.

  9. Clegg much less impressive than last week – was shown to be flailing on defence and on illegal immigrants and fell back too often on “the system is broken” without any sense of solutions – final statement too cheesy. Brown very impressive but not sure anyone is listening. On balance, Cameron probably out on top, but neither GB nor NC really exposed Cameron;s own contradictions

  10. Public will rate Clegg & Cameron about equal, with Brown narrowly behind. But, press will trumpet Cameron’s Triumph from the roof tops using YouGov result!

    Personally, I think Cameron was much better tonight, so was Brown. Clegg not as fresh, needs to do better on third debate.

  11. I felt Cameron and Clegg were better and Brown only better than last week, but still 3rd. No outright winner of the debate tonight (unlike last week) and the results almost reflect the polls at the moment.

  12. ComRes:

    Clegg: 33%
    Brown: 30%
    Cameron: 30%

  13. Thought it was a score draw overall – pretty good for Clegg and Brown because Cameron didn’t run away with it.

  14. Letsbe real. The foreign policy debate was always Cleggs weakest and if this is the best result the others can get against him that represents a result for the LibDems. Imagine how he will hit Cameron on economics next time when he plays the Cable v Osborne card.

  15. @Anthony Wells Margin of error?

  16. I think it’s getting more and more obvious that no matter how strong GB performs in the debate he just can’t improve Labour’s performance in the polls – I really fear for a major meltdown on May 6th

  17. Comres puts Clegg as winner. 33:30:30

  18. I didn’t watch the first debate but having sat through the second I think Clegg will be the main beneficiary regardless of who ‘won’ simply for getting equal exposure. It’ll be interesting to see if the polls are noticeably affected but the first has been credited with a LibDem bounce that had clearly already begun.

  19. As my handle would indicate, I’m an American university student who has been following this election with great interest. I just finished watching the debate this afternoon. I’m probably not a completely impartial observer, but I don’t have any particular animosity towards any of the parties, so I’ll try to give what I believe to be my honest assessment:

    First of all, watching the debate reinforced for me just how right-wing our politics here in the US really is. David Cameron would probably be derided as a “socialist” here (and in the American political lexicon that word is for some reason the greatest insult you can hurl at someone). Barack Obama probably be center-right by UK standards. I was also shocked by the fact that you are able to have an honest debate about the role of religion in the UK – that would never happen here in the US where the politicians trample over each other to display their love for organized religion.

    I’m considered left-wing by US standards but I could feasibly see myself voting for all three men as they are all to the left of America’s two major parties.

    As for the ‘winner’ of the debate, I was personally most impressed by Gordon Brown this time around (last week I was with the majority in thinking Clegg). His answer to the question on the papal visit was very powerful and in my opinion by far the best of the three. I don’t know the particulars of the UK pension system but as an American his response to the elderly woman on the fuel allowance appealed to me. I thought he started off better than he finished, and his attack on Clegg to “get real” was a little too harsh, but I still think he handled this debate.

    I liked David Cameron’s answers on political reform and while I thought some of his attacks on Brown were justified, they came off as a bit too strident, even angry, to me. I think he did much better than last week but he seemed to stare into the camera, which came off as a bit unnatural. But he was much improved from last week and more personable.

    Nick Clegg did fairly well, in my opinion. I liked his quip on immigration about the inanity of trying to find 900,000 people to deport and he put Cameron on the spot when he asked about the precise details of the cap. But I think Gordon Brown’s point system is probably the best, most realistic solution to immigration and I would like to see Obama propose such a system for the US when he tackles immigration reform here later this year or early in 2011.

    So, in my outsider’s opinion, the order goes:

    1) Brown
    2) Clegg
    3) Cameron

    But really I think Cameron and Clegg could be easily switched – Clegg’s closing statement was really good, but Gordon Brown seemed to have good command of facts and a mastery of policy, which impressed me. Like I said before, I could vote for all three men – all are much better than the choices we have here in the US between the center-right Democrats and the far-right nutcase Republicans.

    Of course, I’m an American and probably fairly ignorant of UK politics, so make of my observations what you will.

    PS A lingering question from the first debate – what are ‘kwangos’ or ‘quangos’ (not sure about the spelling)?

  20. Thesecores broadly reflect current party scores if others divided.

  21. I thought this debate was much close than the other one. David Cameron started well but began to lose momentum towards the end; Clegg was the opposite. Gordon Brown seemed to be giving great answers. Unfortunately, they seemed to be read out. What did my gut reaction say? That everything will stay about the same.

    If there is any movement in polls, I unfortunately think it will be at the expense of the Lib Dems. Nick Clegg didn’t start well, and the smears campaign perpetrated by the tories isn’t helping either. Ooh, that sounded nice and controversial! :)

  22. The You Gov instant reaction poll at least is very similar to its daily tracker poll.

    I wonder if the first debate made up the minds of many undecideds and the next two, including this last one will simply confirm previously held views (unless a major gaffe is committed by someone)

  23. Cleft walked this again his closing speech was very good! Gordon is struggling as he has had 13 years and that’s going against him and the way Clegg talked down Brown was telling. I thought he handled Trident pretty well. As for DC hevupped his game his best moment was nailing Brown on the leaflets issue and he was strong on Europe.

  24. I think Adam Bolton of Sky News won! Much better than ITV’s effort last week.

    As for the leaders, I agree with the Yougov poll, DC ahead but not by much. I think GB’s stupid smirks and head nodding would some people off, or may be thats just me!

  25. @AB,

    Economy represents the biggest opportunity for Brown, but also the biggest risk as well, i.e. recession, debt, gold sales etc.

    It will be very interesting to see which way it goes.

    rich

  26. C4 news Nick Clegg: 52% Gordon Brown: 31% David Cameron: 17%

  27. We know the press are going to focus exclusively on the polls which say Cameron won anyway, so what’s the point?

  28. Cameron was very solid tonight, Clegg was ok but was shown to be short of sensble policies. Gordon was desperate again. Interested to see the polls come through now.

  29. Looking at the results it seems that people are just voting their political preference now…. i.e. are the parties are coming out fairly even…

  30. Clegg will be pleased to have come through intact and he sparkled a couple of times – I think his best moments will look good on the news. But it was much closer than last time – Cameron and Brown have upped their presentational game, and there was much more aggression and difference on policy. Brown did well enough and avoided too many stumbles, and although Cameron’s policies aren’t to my taste I think he got them across well enough.

  31. Plenty of consensus of rough thirds each then. Some have one slightly ahead of the other but only 3 or 4 points either way from 33.3% each. It was the middle debate so nothing lost, nothing gained, next time is still all to play for.

  32. I thought N C held his ground tonight and D C was more stronger than last week, but the winner was G B with a more mature and responsible debate than the other two leaders.

  33. Why is yougov polls always againt GB?

  34. Cameron was very strong

  35. Polished performance from Cameron and I think the poll gives a realistic result.

    Cameron kept out of trouble while the would be allowance argued with each other. Not a good advert for future co-operation. As previously stated it will become Cameron against the rest and the public like the underdog.

    Up to date prediction

    Con 38
    Lab 22
    Lib 28

  36. I think that NC was still the most charismatic, however he delivered nothing new, his policies also started to look a little shakey, I believe that he really needed to shine tonight in order to maintain his position. Cameron looked better than last time, a little more comfortable and i thought that his policies looked stronger than last time. Did anyone notice that Brown said that the man accused of the attempted bombing on christmas eve was trained in Somalia, when he was actually trained in Yemen? Surprised none of the others picked up on it!

  37. unfortunately for Clegg badly miscalculated by peaking on the first debate. After that performance any mistakes will force him downwards.

  38. YouGov and ComRes show essentially a dead heat. Go back 8 days Cameron was expected to walk away with these debates. Tonight changes very little. Big trouble for Team Cameron

  39. ComRes
    Voting intention before/after:

    Conservative – 36%/35%
    Lib Dem – 35%/36%
    Labour – 24%/24%

    Doesn’t sound right.

  40. Is it just me, or was the nature of the debate changed at the last minute? I thought the running order was going to be:

    Week 1 – domestic policy
    Week 2 – international affairs
    Week 3 – the economy

    But only the first half of Week 2 ended up being about international affairs, with the second half being given over to “other more general issues”. Unfortunately this had the effect, at least for me, of allowing all three to repeat many of their slogans of the previous week. DC and GB probably both did this in a slightly more polished way than in Week 1, but the consequent lack of excitement, I think, is reflected in the polls which are more or less a reflection of current voting intention.

  41. Brown excellent, Clegg OK, Cameron better than last week on style but on substance very lightweight

  42. A question for John Brown:

    The Tories are still – despite the Lib Dem surge – either tied or ahead in polling.. so how will the UK public see Cameron as an “underdog”? That would be more likely their view of Cleeg, wouldn’t it?

  43. Brown up 10% – Labour must be delighted

  44. ComRes is a lot closer to reality, frankly I think Brown came a close second to Clegg with Cameron looking very very rattled, a bit desperate.

    I think the Tories have lost this election already… now that does not mean they won’t form the government, but they will be extremely dissapointed that they have to do so in a hung Parliament rather than an outright majority.

  45. Think polls will change. I thought Brown was the best (but blew it a bit with a smug look- did you see?!) ahead of Clegg & then Cameron.
    Brown convincing & solid but a little aggressive; Clegg stood his ground; Cameron played to his core vote too much including over-use of do the right thing””

  46. I suppose one point is that Clegg’s performance won’t be able to be seen merely as a fluke now. Yes, he’s come down to Earth, but I don’t think they will be able to put him back in the bottle again.

  47. Can’t see tonights debate affecting the polls much though – will be interesting to see the viewing figures – bet the Tory press go very heavy on the YouGov poll of Cameron winning slightly.

  48. Anyone who thinks percentages of an average of around 30% each is a disaster for the Lib Dems, needs to – to coin a phrase: “Get real”.

    What it does is confirm three-party politics.

    Jolly good: let’s have a few more [parties I mean]

  49. AR’s “intentions” poll has LibDems nosing ahead with the ‘more’ or ‘just as’ likely to vote for them and both Lab and Con with more ‘less likely’ to vote.

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