Tonight’s YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 33%(+2), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 31%(-3). A drop for the Liberal Democrats, but YouGov has been bouncing back and forth between Lib Dem and Tory leads since the debate – realistically the position seems to be stable, with the changes all just random variation within the margin of error.

We also have a new poll from TNS-BRMB, who I think are the final pollster left to produce a “post-debate” poll (though a very small part of the fieldwork to this poll was conducted prior to the debate). Their figures are CON 34%(-2), LAB 29%(-4), LDEM 30%(+8).

Later on we have ComRes’s daily poll. Remember that it is a rolling poll, and half the data in today’s poll will actually have been in yesterday’s poll that showed a nine-point Tory lead (and judging by the shift in yesterday’s ComRes figures, the new half of the data yesterday must have been very Tory). Don’t be surprised therefore if tonight’s ComRes poll also shows a decent Tory lead, it’s the drawback of rolling polls – if you get one perculiar sample it takes a couple of days to work its way through.


346 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 33/27/31”

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  1. Telegraph have gone for Clegg big time tomorrow.Obviously want those soft Tories back.

  2. Guys I predicted the Tories will be back to 38 by tomorrow nite….

    in the last 24 hours we have had 35 35 34 33 33…..

    we are knocking on the door of it make no mistake.

    If you want any evidence that yellow is about to plummet see the Daily Telegraph’s front page for tomorrow- it is a wipe out for Nick Clegg….. shocking timing for him

  3. Christopher TNS is 34…

  4. @Yozza

    “Tory support firming up,LD surge peaked, Labour bottomed out at 27%”

    Three opinions, none of which is necessarily correct.

    Conservative support has seemingly plateaued out at around 33% but there is no proof it has firmed up. It could creep back up or drop still further.

    The Lib Dem vote has plateaued at around 31.5% but there is no evidence to suggest it can’t go still higher.

    The Labour vote has plateaued out at 27%, but it could still go eiither way.

    Interesting times, though.

  5. @ LUTHER

    Ah, I get what you are saying… If it’s only a 2 day poll then day 1 ok, day 2 CON too high. Then it becomes day 1 CON too high & day 2 ok = same skewed result as yesterday :-)

  6. There is important breaking news that Billy Bragg has deserted Labour and is supporting the Liberal Democrats.

    If anyone has his number I’d like it please, as I want to suggest a new name for his support group:

    “Yellow Duster” instead of “Red Rag”.

    It’s got a much cleaner image I feel.

    [I haven’t added lols etc but do feel free to subtract your own.

  7. @Eoin,

    “@Chris,

    yes but we have a bundle of 33s to back it up…

    Trust me, the Tories are clawing back some of those Libs”

    That’s what I have been trying to tell people all evening. Nice to know you agree with me, Eoin!

    It seems that a lot of people just don’t want to hear the truth. The election is wide open again IMO, but with Labour still favourites IMO.

  8. Comres , BPIX and YouGov all gave the Tory party 31%

    The last three polls give the blues

    35%
    34%
    33%

    Guys, like it or not that is a recovery

  9. @FrankG,

    Yes I agree that AV is utterly flawed and benefits Labour, but your original comment said PR/AV/AV+, two out of which wouldn’t give the result you suggest. I said PR would result in Labour getting 14-15 seats out of 28, which is right.

  10. @ Eoin

    How many potential Lib Dem voters read the Torygraph?

  11. @Mike
    “I am not sure when but understand that the extent of this will be publicy revealed soon.”

    Dark threats and rumours… the thlot pickens!

  12. Eoin – I’ll take that bet

    I think the Lib Dems will be up to 34%-36% after tomm night (probably by the weekend)

    I don’t think Cameron can win tomorrow.

  13. the com res poll was put to the sword last night..openly pulled to bits for the rogue it clearly was

    tonight , again the same pollsters are being talked up after another poll , whcih again will be wildly out

    a liberal push , in almost every poll..but no ..the comres lot somehow come up with a tory positive

    its been fun but I cant be bothered to go through all that nonsense again

    I shall leave this all to the experts

  14. FRANKG

    AV is not PR!!!

    Your analysis of AV as making very little difference to the unfairness of FPTP is good however! That is why I for one would be extremely unhappy if the Lib Dems accepted AV as a “reform” of the Uk electoral system, should they end up with enough influence after the election

    Andrew

  15. Reds instead of denying a blue recovery it is better to examine your new friendship with yellows
    :) :) :)

  16. @There are another set of polls released before the debate, they too will show a blue increase.

    Rob A, check the story out first……. it will be on every news outlet by 10am…

    BBC are already running it tonight

  17. com res poll for ITV/independent – what a contridiction in terms.

  18. @Neil:

    No, it means today’s 500 gave answer similar to two days ago – with the ‘outlier’ 500 in the middle.

  19. @pete b

    Though I’m sure bookies do frequent Betfair, it’s mainly a ’social’ betting site where punters bet against each other, so it could be seen as a poll of all the political gamblers in Britain!

    about 5 years behind the time on Bet fair i’m affraid – do you work for Lads or Wm Hill? They have transformed the beting industry – c£2.2m matched on the overall majority market so far! cot a social site – more of a socialist site given it cuts most of the bookies margin out of the trade! Right up your street i would think?

  20. I cannot see why people are doubting the consistency between today’s result for ComRes and what must have been yesterday’s result. If the Tory 35 ((for instance) had gone down markedly, it would have indicated that Sunday’s effort was the outlier. As it stayed teh same, the Sunday outlier, if it existed, must have been equalled by a similar ‘outlier today,

    In simple terms say 38 32 38 in that order.

  21. Comres/ITN

    Tory 35
    Lib Dem 27
    Lab 25

  22. @Amber Star
    Doesn’t explain why Labour are on 25% though, does it?

  23. @matthew,

    no it doesnt…

    Labour were 28 two days ago they are now down to 25

  24. CharlieW, you said “…they’re [bookies] more likely to be right than wrong…” and “…When it comes to anything else, they [bookies] look at form and make judgements based on a variety of factors…” and “…if bookies got it wrong more than they got it right, they wouldn’t be in business…”

    No, no, no, no! Bookies do not believe they know who is going to win any contest (except arguably when odds are first calculated) and – this bit is important – do not care. Bookies set odds such that their maximum loss is as low as possible, and that depends on the amount of money staked, not on who will/will not win. Bookies do not “get it wrong” nor “get it right”. You could write a computer program to act as a bookie for any contest without knowing anything about the contest other than the names of the participants. In fact, that’s what spreadbetting websites are.

    Your faith is misplaced. Bookies could be thick as doo-doo – in fact, bookies could be dead – and, provided they set the odds according to the amount of money staked and alter those odds as further monies are staked, they would still make a humungeous profit.

    You also said “…I’m not critising the polls, just saying that when all the seats are looked at individually, it may give a much better position of how that share is distributed than UNS…”

    You have a point here, but that’s because it’s the aggregate of thousands of punters making decisions at local level based on local knowledge, not because of some all-knowing bookie.

  25. Reds instead of denying a blue recovery it is better to examine your new friendship with yellows

    ********************

    Hear hear, Eoin.

    Always amusing to see Lab supporters trashing polls they don’t like. As you say, perhaps they need to get their own house in order.

  26. What I worry about is how a news programme can have a rolling poll knowing what it means and does not tell there viewers, many of which will think these polls are all separate. Also, because of ITN News doing this poll they do not mention any others – all of which pretty much agree but are different to the ITN News……

  27. Jamie – Eoin’s prediction changes by the hour so I don’t hold it in the same high regard as you seem to.

    The 38% Con figure won’t be mentioned again after tomorrow, that’s my prediction.

  28. The Comres poll in the crosstabs is showing intention in the 18-35s and females to vote blue well above any polling that I have seen. In the US they are well use to pollsters before the big day altering the weighting of their sampling to produce a result as its open to interpretation. Its inevitably wired out in the final poll of record immediately before the election. any way that is my interpretaion of what is happening with their poll numbers. The other thing is how they deal with the undecided and the 5-10 scale of likely to vote and the recalls.

  29. the poll two days ago had labour 3 higher….

    I think Comres has been taking a turn for the worse yes but three companies had blues on 31%. We are now looking at 33% 34% 35%

  30. @Eoin

    Did you read the story? They’re talking a about £250 a month to pay someones salary. I doubt it will even make the 10 o’clock news.

  31. Eoin, I do deny a Con recovery, re my post earlier of the narrowing gap on all polls since the debate. You are on pretty dodgy ground basing it on the Com Res figures IMO

    Here’s my take on tomorrow:

    DC is floundering badly, the campaign is lurching all over the place and he is not getting a good press even from the Telegraph and Mail

    GB has stuck to the same message resolutely plodding away. However, he must start to pull up from 27

    Clegg will either cement his gains or bomb badly, he has by far the toughest job tomorrow.

    The big question for me is what happens if DC does no better tomorrow than he did last week? Even if he does, is he so badly damaged now that no-one will listen? The real question for me tomorrow is what happens if he is now as “tainted” as Brown? What if he starts to poll 30s or even below? Undoubtedly the LibDems will get a further boost unless thy bomb too.
    Labour have some amazing strategists, love em or hate em and they seem sure that “steady as she goes” will be a winner? If it will be , we need to start seeing more proof fairly soon.

    LibDems staying on low thirties with Lab +2, Con -2 would be quite a result that shouldn’t be impossible to achieve. Lib34 Lab 30 Con 30 would change the narrative almost as totally as Clegg did this week.nu2b

  32. I think the nature of FPTP is being totally mis represented here and in the media

    It’s purpose is not to reflect national vote share
    National vote share is an invention of the media

    The purpose of FPTP is to give accurate local representation – we do not have a general election or a presidential election we have 650 local elections
    I wish people would realise this

  33. @Rob A,

    let’s see, I utterly disagree. You may be correct! :)

  34. @MARTYN
    Exactly right and clearly put, thank you.
    re COMRES
    The fact the two polls are virtually the same actually proves they are rogues.
    The ‘middle’ 500 are the rogue and the other two 500’s must be ‘normal’.

  35. I convinced the share of voters taken off both LAB and CON by the LIB dems is roughly equal and this fluctuation is causing a few interesting polls.

    This whole Clegg affair will die down to some extent and we will be back to the original likelihood of the CONS being denied a majority due to failure to gain in the SW

  36. @ Martyn

    I think u r kiding yourself if you think that outside a few celeb seats like Buckingham more than a handful of punters want to place a bet on the outcome of an individual seat!

  37. @ Eoin

    Just watched ITV News and they gave Nick Clegg the benefit of the doubt on the piece in the Daily Telegraph, so not a complete wash-out for him. I still think his more relaxed style will win favour tomorrow night regardless of likely challenges but I agree that the Tory numbers are holding up though hardly a mandate.

  38. @Chris,

    i still predict 36/34/22 for 6/5/10.

    That has not changed

  39. Sue

    31, 31, 31,

    33, 34, 35 ?

    :)

  40. Eoin Clarke – Gap, gap, gap :) (I don’t usually argue with you, but I spent all day crunching numbers so I’m feeling brave)

  41. @ Colin Green

    ‘“There is a myth that FPTR favours Labour”

    driven by the fact that they can get the most number of seats with the least number of votes. You can’t justify this away with historical data – that just proves that it didn’t favour Labour at one time. It does now.

    April 21st, 2010 at 9:50 pm

    In the SW there were on ave 66.7% turnouts compared with those in the NE of 57.1%. The electors/seat at the last GE2005 was as follows:
    NE 64,110 per seat corrected by losinig 2 seats and then re drawing the boundaries such that the votes/seat increased to 68,689 per seat.
    SW 75,399 per seat corrected by an additional 4 seats and re-drawing the boundaries to decrease it to 69,916.
    Still a slight difference caused because the figures used by the boundary commission were those of a 1997 census. The boundaries are based on the number of electors, not the numbers that actually vote.

  42. Éoin

    I would be reasonably happy with that. I will keep you to it or else it will go pear-shaped ;-)

    But I prefer Amber’s CB prediction.

  43. CB – over all polls the Tories have lost slightly more to the Clegg surge, but only slightly.

  44. To be fair to EOIN, he has always stated that the LD surge will dissipate and the Tories and Lab will gain.
    Before that, he said that Lab and Cons would become ever more closer as we approach the GE.
    He doesn’t seem to have changed his predictions much actually.
    Personally, I hope he’s right about Labour climbing back into the 30’s again!

  45. Looking up slightly for the Conservatives after a few horrendous days, split in Lab/LD vote possibly? If the Tories can capatalise on this it could certainly be of much benifit to them. If Labour remain in a poor third, “Goodnight Viena” springs to mind.

    It is tense times for all except the LibDems by the looks of it, SNP losing ground to Labour in Scotland.

  46. @Sue

    Fieldwork dates are everything

    harris etc,,, best ignored

    ComRes stinks as well, do not get me wrong…. but two days in a row?

    i read the current polls as

    33/27.5/30

  47. Never thought I would get excited about polling 35%.

  48. @NickW
    “I think the nature of FPTP is being totally mis represented here and in the media”

    Good point. Another one is that England (not sure about Celtic fringes) has had elected Parliaments for hundreds of years. The franchise has gradually widened (they even allow women to vote nowadays!), but the basic method has stayed the same.

    All these fancy modern countries and voting methods came long after we had democracy. It is arguable that we are slow to change, but some posters on here seem to believe that FPTP has been deliberately invented to give false election results, whereas it is just the oldest and simplest method of electing.

  49. NickW

    “we do not have a general election or a presidential election we have 650 local elections. I wish people would realise this”

    Not quite. The overall result of the 650 local elections determines the party of government, the Prime Minister and which set of ministers the Prime Minister chooses. That is a national election, with 650 local results tagged on.

    I often think we should have 2 elections simultaneously: One for your local MP and one for Prime Minister. That way you can keep your local MP if you have a good one but choose the better PM / Cabinet.

  50. Sue Marsh: difficult to feel the job/home you didn’t lose

    posted this before: Lindy Evans writing in National Times (AUS) March 25 – The alternative to Rudds debt is too depressing. “If the govt is feeling flashy…$9000 for not living through The Great Depression – what a bargain!”

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