Tonight’s YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 33%(+2), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 31%(-3). A drop for the Liberal Democrats, but YouGov has been bouncing back and forth between Lib Dem and Tory leads since the debate – realistically the position seems to be stable, with the changes all just random variation within the margin of error.

We also have a new poll from TNS-BRMB, who I think are the final pollster left to produce a “post-debate” poll (though a very small part of the fieldwork to this poll was conducted prior to the debate). Their figures are CON 34%(-2), LAB 29%(-4), LDEM 30%(+8).

Later on we have ComRes’s daily poll. Remember that it is a rolling poll, and half the data in today’s poll will actually have been in yesterday’s poll that showed a nine-point Tory lead (and judging by the shift in yesterday’s ComRes figures, the new half of the data yesterday must have been very Tory). Don’t be surprised therefore if tonight’s ComRes poll also shows a decent Tory lead, it’s the drawback of rolling polls – if you get one perculiar sample it takes a couple of days to work its way through.


346 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 33/27/31”

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  1. Another flat poll. People really are waiting for the next debate

    h t t p://i224.photobucket.com/albums/dd161/smart51/pollsaprmay.jpg

  2. Mori C32 LD 32 L28
    Harris C31 LD 30 L26
    YG C33 LD 31 L27
    TNS C34 LD 30 L29

    Now i’m impressed, we clearly know where we all are, and nothing has changed since the weekend

    Averages C 32.5 LD 30.75 L 27.5

    Wonder what Com res will say

  3. One thing is for sure, according to ALL the polls Gordon Brown is not going to become an elected Prime Minister!

    Roll on May 7th, now that will be a very interesting day.

  4. YouGov seats (using Lib Dem = 32) & latest Wales & Scotland:

    Con 248
    Lab 255
    L/D 115
    Oth 32

    Says 32% LD on YouGov front page Anthony

  5. any sample size for TNS-BRMB?

  6. The Sun are reporting LD 31%, but YouGov has 32%. Typical bias.

  7. Realistically we have only Ccomres and Yougov to go on due to the lagging of the other polling companies.

    Anthony is right about the ComRes rolling poll the ‘very tory’ sample as well as the ‘bouncing around of the Tories and Lib Dems’ in YouGov.

    Underneath all that I do detect a slight firming and perhpas upward trend the in Tory vote. equally I detect a maturity perhaps entering a modest decline in the Libs vote. I await Tomorrows polls with eagerness.

  8. Since the camapign began, the tory vote has dropped 6.3%

    Since the camapign began, the Labour party’s vote has dropped 2.9%

    Since the campaign began, the Liberal Democrats share of the vote has increased 12.5%

    the parties are now on rounding 32%/27%/32%

    Thus the red-blue gap is down to 5.5%

  9. bill roy

    brown certainly wont become an elected pm

    but lets be honest here , nor might mr cameron

    in fact , he might be finished if he doesnt get the conservatives a clear majority

    and where is the evidence thats going to happen ?

  10. How long has it been since this site has shown Labour as being X seats short of a majority?

  11. Here’s a graph of the Lib Dem polls this month with the rolling average and +/-3% margins of error. The chart shows yesterday’s Com Res figure outside the margins of error.

    h t t p://i224.photobucket.com/albums/dd161/smart51/LDpolls.jpg

  12. I wonder what will happen if NC really bombs tomorrow night, and makes a complete stuff of the debate. Would we retreat back to where the polls were 2 weeks ago?? I somehow dont think so I think people are now focussed and short of a scandal of epic proportions then I think the polls will remian more or less where they are result HUNG Parliament

  13. Hung parliament territory still.

    Apparently Cameron is going to try and copy Cleggs style of talking to the camera from the first debate.

    Does anyone think that will work?

    I suppose we will know shortly after

  14. @PaulCroft
    “ITV News: “Tories storm into one point lead””

    LOL

  15. ‘one drawback of rolling poll’ – I can think of dozens and yet to hear a positive for them. Opinion polls are supposed to show a snapshot of public opinion, how is a rolling poll with figures added on top of previous days going to show this?

    What about rogue polls? These aren’t identified and only added on top of valid figures – very messy and Com Res for me now belong with Angus Reid.

  16. @ Roger Mexico

    So labour’s lead in seats is falling, or am i mistaken?

    and ow, I have asked this before but am not too sure you replied:

    Is your username a Thomas Pynchon reference?

  17. Bill Roy:

    I assume you mean GB won’t gain an overall majority? In which case, agreed, that’s very unlikely.

    However, I think almost all polls suggest he’s more likely than DC to gain most seats – unless, of course, there’s a very dramatic bounce in the Conservative polling figures.

    In which case Brown has the first chance to form a new government. Perhaps not “elected” in the sense you feel is fair, but that’s what you get with FPTP isn’t it?

  18. @ GARY

    Apparently Cameron is going to try and copy Cleggs style of talking to the camera from the first debate.
    Does anyone think that will work?
    ————————————-

    Only if he pretends it’s a mirror ;-)

  19. Slight Tory firming up I suspect. Papers don’t matter much – too partisan people see through them. However, Tom Bradby’s appalling partisanship masquerading as neutral reporting will have a major effect. I suspect official complaints might be on their way to ITN News viz that young man’s commitment to broadcasting neutrality!!!!

  20. Paul Croft –

    “I assume you mean GB won’t gain an overall majority? In which case, agreed, that’s very unlikely. ”

    Exactly.

    Also it would seem likely that Labour at the moment are unlikely to gain most seats as the swings (plural) will not be uniform, and as such it is unlikely to favour Labour.

    I wonder what tomorrow will bring? ;)

  21. Mark in Europe

    Labour/ Tory seat lead jiggling about all the time. Even one point can make a difference or put a different party in the lead.

    And yes, your the first person to spot it.

  22. WMA:32:26:31.

    No 7-day trend in the CLead, and although the 14-day trend is still “significant” it is plain that the reduction in CLead (over L) has stopped and may have been reversed recently.

    7-day LD passing L is still highly significant (R2=0.89).

    Vince came off v poorly in Chancellors Debate but were people watching?

  23. @BillRoy
    “Also it would seem likely that Labour at the moment are unlikely to gain most seats as the swings (plural) will not be uniform, and as such it is unlikely to favour Labour.”


    “It” being a singular pronoun refers to …?

  24. @Amber

    Yeh the Tory lead is half it was two weeks ago. ;-)

    Tomorrow night is our next big event – how will it change the polls? ACB time again ;-)

  25. @Tony – funny for should say that – I issued a mail to ITV on that very subject.

    The balanced reporting from Mail TV as it should be known has been shocking so far – was worried SKY would go down that route but they’ve remarkably balanced.

  26. Al J
    @Amber

    Yeh the Tory lead is half it was two weeks ago.

    Tomorrow night is our next big event – how will it change the polls? ACB time again
    *************************************************

    The debate tmr is very important, as it will seal the deal for postal voters.

  27. @NBeale
    “Vince came off v poorly in Chancellors Debate but were people watching?”

    No, I missed it! But Tom Bradby on ITV News made sure the same amount of damage was done as if they had!

    Was Vince bad?

  28. what makes me laugh on here is how someone says that something ” clearly shows ” an increase for example in tory vote

    and two minutes later , it ” clearly doesnt ”

    lol

    its more entertaining than the debate itself

    as for ITN ?

    shocking bias and bordering on crass

  29. @Amber -Naughty girl :o

    I think out of all these polls Labour should be really worried at polling 3rd in almost every poll now!

    The Conservatives are picking up an odd point here and there but the doesn’t appear to be any further LD surge!

    The big moment will be after tomorrows debate. :o

  30. Whig share bouncing up an down like a yoyo. Nothing to get too exited about. It is the debates that are a game changer and I think the game will change.
    Somehow, I get the impression that it is a choice between a Tory government or a Lib-Lab pact.
    It is interesting to note however, that Labour hasnt moved into the lead at all. The game has changed.
    The main gainers of this poll are the Tories. It is only slight but all eyes must be on Bristol.

  31. @WanderingWelshman
    “as for ITN ?

    shocking bias and bordering on crass”

    bordering?

  32. A much better few days for the Tories. I think we can say their lead over Labour is probably in the region of 5/6% now. The Lib Dem surge is still very much in evidence, but it seems to be subsiding ever so slightly. Will all this continue after tomorrow’s debate?

    I would also say that the polls from the last 2 or 3 days seem to indicate that the Lib Dems have taken just as much of the vote from Labour as the Tories.

  33. For me Osborne was far worse – the bulk argument was cringeworthy.

  34. I do wish people would draw a distinction between an electoral pact and a coaliton government. Totally different propositions it seems to me.

  35. tony dean

    after your second go at the excellent tom bradby can i ask you if you watched vince cable in the debate today? cos he certainly had a mare just like bradby fairly reported. the libdem honeymoon did have a dodgey day today if you liked it or not.

  36. @ AL J

    I’m sticking with 32,31,30 for next week – whatever the polls say.

    And Labour is still ACB’s favourite to win – no Hung Parliament :-)

  37. Tony Dean & everyone else who watched it

    ITV complaint number is:

    0844 88 14150

    They’ll take complaints more seriously from members of the public than from party headquarters.

    Sorry to keep going on but does make a difference.

  38. Bill:

    Well the stats don’t support that view and they, as things stand, suggest that not only will Cons not win from LD in their shared, two-way marginals, but will actually lose some of their own.

    What none of us know is how this new, three-way contest – more if you include smaller groupings – will actually play out.

    I sense an anti-tory majority and a pro PR majority – with an electorate grappling, via poll after poll until May 5th – with how best to achieve that end.

    I know you don’t of course but I’m less sure what your rationale is.

  39. Am I being thick here. Doesn’t the yougov site say 31/26/34 with the LibDems with a 3 point lead?

  40. Over the past 14 days have read absorbed, laughed and been impressed with comments on this board. However the amount of polls at different times and regularity have left me confused. I read with interest the trends and forecasts. Also how the parties’ followers favour particular parties when it suits.

    Through it all You/Guv seem to be the best supported and respected. As they declare on a daily basis this alleviates overlaps of events. Therefore I have decided to use their polls to base my predictions, as I believe they reflect a reasonable scenario of the day’s events. I will leave the methodical trends etc to the spreadsheet whiz kids.

    The latest You/Guv gives Con 33, Lab 27, Libd 31. Could this be the turning point back to the Cons. I feel it is impossible for them to get back to the era of the 40+. However with the surge of the Libs the make up and spread of the polls has changed. I mean that Cons may not have to achieve 40+ to win. E.g. a scenario of Con 37 Lab 24 Libd 28 would just put Cons in majority country.

    This would mean a return of some votes to Cons, Libd establishing their new identity and Labours reduction in support. Very basic reasoning but the above prediction is based on the experience of many elections and not X factor politics. It will be policy that dictates the outcome on the day of reckoning.

  41. @christopher “The balanced reporting from Mail TV as it should be known has been shocking so far – was worried SKY would go down that route but they’ve remarkably balanced.”

    Yep, Adam Boulton and Eanon Holmes are equally scathing and scoffing to all of them. No bias there.

  42. @Richar O

    **The debate tmr is very important, as it will seal the deal for postal voters.**

    Must be the first time we agree ;-)

  43. @Christopher
    “For me Osborne was far worse”

    Forgive me for asking, as I don’t know you. Do you come from any particular party political ideology?

  44. Did our Darling win the Chancellor’s debate then?

    All in agreement for once?

  45. @Kyle Downing
    NC has got to distance himself from any idea that it is a choice between DC or a Lib/Lab Pact. NC has got to get across the “One more heave” message (where have I heard that before LOL) to get LDs up and over the 37% hurdle when they can then tell the other to to buzz-off!

  46. How is it much better for the tories?

    As I see it the Lib Dems and the Tories are still neck and neck with the Tories polling William Hague figures! Which is where we were a couple of days ago

    In addition to this they are only 5 points ahead of labour who are polling Michael Foot figures. How is that good news for the tories.

  47. lol its like last night all over again

    so the tory lead has halfed in the polls in a few days and we seem to have people suggesting that because labour are not in the lead ..when were they ???…that its a tory shift

    com eon , this is getting as bad as ITN news

  48. @Amber

    ”’I’m sticking with 32,31,30 for next week – whatever the polls say.”

    ”And Labour is still ACB’s favourite to win – no Hung Parliament ”

    Your ACB is like a much needed Tonic ;-)

  49. Tony Dean

    Hours ago you asked me what it was with Tom Bradby that meant that i immediately guessed who it was.

    For some time (oh at least a year) he is known in this house as FTC. Funnily enough he interviewed Nick Clegg on a sea side balcony somewhere and was remarkably friendly towards him. We decided he was playing safe and was now going for FLDC.

    But your story today makes me think he has plumped back to FTC.

  50. @Paul Croft,

    “However, I think almost all polls suggest he’s more likely than DC to gain most seats – unless, of course, there’s a very dramatic bounce in the Conservative polling figures.”

    On recent polling, I’d say it would be very close with regard to who would be the largest party. I certainly don’t think a ‘dramatic bounce’ would be required – merely another 1% or so either way.

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