Tonight’s YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 33%(+2), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 31%(-3). A drop for the Liberal Democrats, but YouGov has been bouncing back and forth between Lib Dem and Tory leads since the debate – realistically the position seems to be stable, with the changes all just random variation within the margin of error.

We also have a new poll from TNS-BRMB, who I think are the final pollster left to produce a “post-debate” poll (though a very small part of the fieldwork to this poll was conducted prior to the debate). Their figures are CON 34%(-2), LAB 29%(-4), LDEM 30%(+8).

Later on we have ComRes’s daily poll. Remember that it is a rolling poll, and half the data in today’s poll will actually have been in yesterday’s poll that showed a nine-point Tory lead (and judging by the shift in yesterday’s ComRes figures, the new half of the data yesterday must have been very Tory). Don’t be surprised therefore if tonight’s ComRes poll also shows a decent Tory lead, it’s the drawback of rolling polls – if you get one perculiar sample it takes a couple of days to work its way through.


346 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 33/27/31”

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  1. Repost – in case I hit automatic moderation with a word.

    My last post here (probably!) until after the election. By then many of you will have disappeared, the number of posts will have dropped to a level that Anthony can filter out the partisan nonsense, and one will be able to follow the discussions without having to be permanently refreshing this site.

    In the meantime – I have my garden!

  2. @Jack Jones. Actually, I thought that the way the Telegraph handled the expenses debacle was awful. They did the right thing in exposing the excesses which some in all parties werre guilty of but they equally misrepresented the legitimate claims that some MPs in all parties made to make it appear that everyone (bar a few saints – again in all parties) were on the make. Yes – I know the Z letter was a forgery but it brought doen a Labour govt. The story in the Telegraph is not a piece of objective journalism but a scurrilous attempt to manipulate the political process. The sad thing is the press will get away with it – yet again.

  3. @Sue Marsh

    Re your comment about my FPTP posting.

    Thanks, now I know how yourself and Eoin etc feel sometimes. Can’t do smileys but take one anyway.

  4. @SueMarsh
    “I hadn’t given any thought to his record on world poverty, global debt, European co-operation, and global economics.”

    This was the subject covered by GB with D. Miliband at the OU in Milton Keynes the other day – it was covered on TV (inc. BBCNews). Very cohesive arguments and good defence of track-record.

  5. @Ach Oldnat,

    Silim go bhfuil se iontach iontach go mhaith,

    Ba mhaith liom thug aris le do thoil?

    Faibh ar mor!

    Ach, Slan go Fail agus Adh Mor ort!

    Éoin

  6. Oh the sickening predictability of it all.
    I’m glad Howard is here, he will be at pone with this rant:
    Our TV media, even the best (Channel 4? BBC?) do not report the news, they attack politicians.
    Our printed media do not report the news, they report their partisan slant of it.
    All of them devote their lives to discrediting.
    When was the last time you saw a report on the improved state of democracy in Iraq?
    When was the last time you saw a report into the actual independent crime figures?
    When was the last time you heard a report on a true success story from government?
    Do we honestly all believe there are none?
    The enormous problem with politics today is that by portraying everyone as failing, corrupt or incompetent that is all the public think that they are.
    To me this is the biggest cause of the breakdown of democracy in our country.

  7. Jack Jones:

    I think most people thought it right that the Telegraph exposed mp’s and leaders of ALL parties when they did so.

    Tomorrow’s “headline” story however is a blatant attempt to influence a general election on the day of a leaders’ debate.

    It is an absolute disgrace and I am confidentthat fair-minded people will think it says more about the right-wing Tory press than about Nick Clegg’s honesty.

  8. @ Neil A
    :)
    Is there going to be a daily NeilA tracker?

  9. @Sue,

    I don’t think it’s just this government that’s suffered from the media focus on negatives. Bad news sells, good news doesn’t. The Tories suffered from it too.

  10. Off topic I know, but having read several comments on the previous thread, I have complained to Ofcom about the ITN bias towards the Tories.

    For anyone wishing to do the same :-

    h t tp://www.ofcom.org.uk/complain/progs/

    (remove the gaps between the h and t)

  11. “Again, not that he nay have done anything wrong, it’s the ” perception ” of the clean up kid with the high morals being seen as maybe having a skeleton or 2 to come out…..THAT is the thing IMHO.”

    I agree – many of the MPs who are being criticised for their expense claims were only operating within the rules at the time as laid down by the Parliamentary Fees Office. They claimed for what they were told they could claim for.

    The public though do not care about what was allowed and not allowed at the time – they care about what feels right and what feels wrong. And primary amongst the critics of all those Labour and Tory MPs were the Lib Dems, with Vince Cable being holier than though more than almost anyone else.

    Remember – people in glass houses should avoid throwing stones, and only he who is without sin should throw the first stone.

    I doubt whether most people will see this as Tory supporting papers smearing the Liberals – it will move on and be seen as just another bit of parliamentary sleaze. Expect to see the Lib Dem rating slip by a few % by the weekend.

  12. Howard,
    I would agree with Woodsman’s (9.35) assessment of the chancellor’s debate. Even as a LD I would rate them 1) Darling; 2) Cable; 3) Osborne.

    As a Cable fan I thought he did not do as well as the first debate a couple of weeks ago. Having said that I thought he was given a harder time than the other two by Neil & flanders who were thorough throughout.

  13. @RAF,

    I was thinking maybe a Neil A rolling poll. I have oft been accused of being a bit “rolly polly”….

  14. @Oldnat

    Never got a chance to thank you for putting me right about bolundary changes etc. It got me really into it and the causes of the Lab ‘advantage’. Hope my piece met with your teachings etc.

    Have a good election

  15. A new thread showing an outlier Com Res again.

  16. @Jack Jones

    “I assume you were perfectly happy when the Telegraph was attacking Tory MPs for claiming for their duck ponds, but now they have exposed Lib Dem misbehaviour the Telegraph is suddenly an appalling paper?

    By the way the Zinoviev letter was revealed to be a forgery – Nick Clegg’s office has already admitted that this story is true, so hardly in the same league.”

    There apparently was no Lib Dem misbehaviour and I should be careful making potentially libellous statements. Clegg has been completely exonerated as apparently his bank statements and Commons declarations have just been scrutinised and the money was used correctly. What he did was unconventional but quite acceptable. He made no personal gain at all. That he immediately admitted it was true shows both his integrity and that he had nothing to hide.

    The Tory MPs flipped houses and claimed second mortgages on both a married couples’ houses. That is immoral if not illegal.

  17. @Billy Bob,

    You were on better ground with Gladstone! :)

    It is the Black and Tans mostly that got me on him…

    but I defer to your nostalgia and withdraw my harsh judgement of the Welsh Wizzard :) :) :)

  18. Tomorrow’s post-debate polls will tell us much of what we need to know.

    I would caution that as long as we have this big soft LD vote however, a late blue surge on GE day looks possible.

  19. In case that last post seemed partisan, it was not meant to be I just used Labour examples.
    They built up DC, they’re rippin him down
    They detest GB
    They’ll build up NC and they’ll rip him down.
    Someone does a good job in Ireland, they’ll destroy em
    Someone does a good job in health? They’ll catch em in bed with someone they shouldn’t.
    etc etc etc.

  20. It’ll be a very interesting debate on international concerns. Clegg can easily make DC feel uneasy with insisting that Cameron voted for war and anything else is just not standing by his conviction. DC can counter on his anti-Euro policy, although NC can say about wanting referendums on European integration, so actually is closer to UKIP policy than DC.

    Brown? Well….standing by his convictions over Iraq. Gives him some kudos but can it give him votes? I doubt it.

    End result. DC to firm up support for some anti-EU voters, although I doubt there’s that many more to come. NC could firm up his support by claiming that a Lib Dem hung parliament would not have voted for Iraq. GB will have to wait for the final debate. Nothing from this one. Con: +/- LD: + Lab: –

  21. Agree totally J Jones…

    I asked if any other parties would complain and condemn the story if it were a Tory involved in the story and no one has yet answered.

    Anyone ?

  22. Eoin

    Beidh mé ar ais!

  23. Don’t think that Roger Hooker is on here but he might have said:
    “Those who criticise gain a ready audience,
    because there are always difficulties in government.”

  24. @Oldnat,

    Is an gasur eh! Chifidh me thu mo chara! Agus feicidh an Sassenach an 2011. Silim go bhfuil Albana an Soarstat? An Phoblacht?

    Slan

  25. Polly – I think you can take it from read from MY posts

  26. @Neil A

    “@RAF, I was thinking maybe a Neil A rolling poll. I have oft been accused of being a bit “rolly polly”….”

    It looks as if you may have to adjust your weightings ;)

  27. Sue Marsh

    They detest GB

    Does anyone know of a poll which asked the public why this is so? That is without putting answers in their mouths (difficult to do but should be attempted)..

  28. Eoin, it relects no credit to me,

    but….”the word we’re looking for here is malutririon”

    you tell them!

  29. Thanks Sue..

    The silence from other so far is deafening and a little…….predictable ?

  30. @Billy Bob

    ;)

  31. “I would caution that as long as we have this big soft LD vote however, a late blue surge on GE day looks possible.”

    How do you know the LD vote is soft? Only time will tell. The idea of a late blue surge looks more like wishful thinking than objective analysis, though.

  32. Polly – believe me, I would give ANYTHING to have politicians getting on with the job, putting forward their policies and achievements and for the public to decide on that and that alone.

  33. @ BILL ROY
    “One thing is for sure, according to ALL the polls Gordon Brown is not going to become an elected Prime Minister!”

    Remember, we are only HALF WAY through the campaign !
    15 days ago, with the Tories having an 8 point lead, there was only ever going to be one elected Prime Minister – David Cameron.
    Currently, the polls suggest any of the 3 could be the next Prime Minister.
    Who knows how things will look in another 15 days !?

  34. Sue:

    You are absolutely 100% right. You may be aware that I have written a number of times about my belief that the media are, to a very large extent, culpable for much that is wrong in our political system. I referred to the appalling “Donkey jacket at the cenotaph” headline, aimed at one of our most decent and respected of our politicians of the 20th century.

    They are only interested in cuplrits, there are never two sides to a story, everything has to be an instant headline – and then they accuse others of spin and hypocrisy. Yet how can the better politicians be heard in this bear-pit?

    Some years ago I returned from a few weeks in New Zealand. Whilst waiting at Heathrow for my connection North I was aghast at the sunday newspapers. Everything was about Cherie Blair. I assumed she’d murdered someone – but no – she’d bought her sons an apartment and had been conned by someone. The “story” ran for weeks. Now if she’d committed suicide because of the pressure would that have concerned those attacking her for something that was no-one’s business but her own and her family’s? I doubt it.

    Now with regard to NC we have the weasel words: “Oh well, he “might” not have done anything actually “wrong” [no, he didn’t actually] but it’s the “perception”. etc etc etc

    I am as disgusted as I think you are.

  35. Polly Ticks
    I don’t know what you asked but realise that I have no interests in your posts whatsoever – they never contained anything that was of interest to me and never mentioned polling, just your partisanship.

    So this is the last one you see that mentions your name from me anyway. I sussed you from the beginning if you remember.

  36. EION / COLIN

    just like to say thanks for the entertainment on earlier thread ref: inflation under thatcher – great read so far.

  37. @PAUL CROFT
    “I referred to the appalling “Donkey jacket at the cenotaph” headline, aimed at one of our most decent and respected of our politicians of the 20th century.”

    Sorry Paul, but we didn’t need the media to point out that wearing that scruffy coat to the Cenotaph was just wrong.

    And Labour didn’t lose the 1983 election just because of that – Foot was an old man, with a manifesto that promised to abandon our nuclear weapons during the height of the cold war, and not long after the Falklands war – not a particularly sensible manifesto promise at the time. Plus they wanted to withdraw from the EEC (interestingly Labour now believe that anyone who wants this today is a xenophobic racist, so that policy didn’t last long). So Foot was not that respected – at least by the electorate.

    I’m afraid you can’t blame the media for every one of Labour’s failings at the time – many of them were their own fault.

  38. @Howard
    Bulls eye :-)

  39. @Julian Gilbert: thank you.

    @rogerh, you said “…You can’t have a PM or government that doesn’t have a majority in the House of Commons. as Charles I discovered…

    You can elect the executive (President) separately from the legislature (Congress), as the Americans have done for 200 years now.

    @its my money (in response to my statement that “…it’s the aggregate of thousands of punters making decisions at local level based on local knowledge…”), you said “…I think u r kiding yourself if you think that outside a few celeb seats like Buckingham more than a handful of punters want to place a bet on the outcome of an individual seat!…”

    If only two punters in each seat place a bet, that’s 650ish x 2 = 1300ish in total.

    Although that’s assuming it’s not the same two punters in a very fast car…:-) So if Clarkson and Hamster are speeding ’round the UK in a Veyron screaming “POWWERRRR!” and stopping at every bookies in the UK with a fistful of fivers, I’ll take it back…:-)

  40. Polly, the post that made sense to me was the one a while back when you said “grrh!”. Please don’t post me back cos im a real scaredy cat.

  41. Jack-Jones – see why you chose the name you did.
    And Paul Croft is not a Labour supporter.

  42. “You can elect the executive (President) separately from the legislature (Congress), as the Americans have done for 200 years now.”

    Of course you can, if you have a presidential system of government. We don’t, though. A British government can’t govern unless the House of Commons votes it the money to do so. A directly-elected PM would require a constitutional revolution, if not an actual one.

  43. To all re Polly…

    Don’t feed the trolls !

  44. Let’s see how the polls look by Sunday or Monday.

    Perhaps Cleggmania will have eased off after the other two supposedly experienced and intellectual opponents have debated some challenging issues with him tomorrow night.

    Gareth Gates or Will Young would have come out as winners after last Thursday’s debate. GB and DC were the sleazy representatives of our greedy expense-exposed current mob, whereas Nick was an unknown fresh voice of the people… until the people started to hear his party’s policies.

    Ask yourself, do you really want to wake up on May 7th to find Nick Clegg and Vince Cable in charge of Britain?

    Spooky, to say the least!

  45. Ask yourself, do you really want to wake up on May 7th to find Nick Clegg and Vince Cable in charge of Britain?

    I just asked myself I and I said yes.

  46. Blimey..where to start….Thanks all for your kind responses…I love you all too..No, really I do.
    Howard….I won’t lose any sleep over it don’t worry. I enjoy reading your 100%poll posts. You really are most clever.You must have read it to be able to reply. :-)
    AL J…You have been busted as well. Cling to your buddy Howard, you’ll be ok.
    Billy Bob…be afraid..be very afraid. ;-)
    Steve Coberman….But I’m hungry….be quick though, the bandwagon your jumping on leaves soon…!

    Interesting to see none of the above would answer my question as well….
    Oh well…..
    Morning everyone :-)

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