Ipsos MORI’s main election polling seems to be their marginals polling for Reuters, so we haven’t actually had a national voting intention poll from them so far during the campaign. Their April political monitor is now out, and shows the big Lib Dem boost from the debate that we have seen across all pollsters. Topline figures are CON 32%(-3), LAB 28%(-2), LDEM 32%(+11). There is presumably also a collapse in support for minor parties, who other companies have also shown fading.

The fieldwork was done on the 18th-19th, so at the same time as the ComRes poll yesterday showing the 9 point Tory lead.

There is also a new Harris poll in the Metro. The topline figures there are CON 31%(-5), LAB 26%(-1), LDEM 30%(+7). Fieldwork there was between the 14th and 19th April.


300 Responses to “New MORI and Harris polls”

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  1. Paul,, sorry for me being so dumb.. I am a Biology teacher, hence the Darwin obsessions… Yes… we have some way to change and adpat to the wider environment , if that was what you meant..
    P

  2. @Colin

    I did not say on average over ten years…

    go back and check- be my guess

    now if you do want the average of the first three years of thatchers government

    see below

    work that average out if you choose to do so..

    they are facts… I am an historian I liek facts. They cannont be spun

    enjoy :) :) :) :) :)

    1981 11.90%
    1980 18.00%
    1979 13.40%

  3. @RichardO
    “Thatcheromics worked (for a comparative majority)”
    Thatcheromics worked for a comparative MINority.
    Bringing us back to the discussion about PR again.. ;)

  4. @RichardO
    I’ll just snip that last post a bit (if you don’t mind) :-) to:
    “According to many studies, if not address, this could add 1 trillian to our future deficit!”


    And that is one of the issues the electorate is about to decide on – who will address it best?

  5. @joseph,

    you are very mistken to think it was cited against the Tories. i was talking about Thatcher’s economic record.

    As it happens Gordon Brown supported the ERM entrance… as did I at the time

  6. @ Amber

    “@ RICHARD O

    I think you should vote for Mrs Thatcher at this GE. If her name isn’t on the ballot – don’t vote”
    ============================
    I think they have that sort of democracy in Zimbabwe don’t they?

  7. The new poll from TNS-BRMB shows C – 34%, LD – 30%, Lab – 29%.

    This poll shows the following changes since 2005:

    C: +1%
    Lab: -7%
    LD: +7%
    Oths: -1%

    Swings:

    From C to LD: 3.0%
    From Lab to C: 4.0%
    From Lab to LD: 7.0%

    Those swings would give the following results:

    The LDs would gain 11 seats from the Tories.
    The Tories would gain 52 seats from Labour.
    The LDs would gain 18 seats from Labour.

    Seats would be:

    Lab – 279
    C – 251
    LD – 91

    So Labour would clearly win the most seats despite coming third in votes.

  8. Demot O’Leary interviewing Cameron on BBC3 at 8pm tonight (i.e. now) followed by NC at 830pm if anyone’s interested.

    Warning – will be aimed at the kidz.

  9. I suppose STV sounds a little attractive but I would need convincing. Is there an example of a country using STV? because that would shed some light into it.

  10. @Joseph1832
    “I think it a little irrelevant to cite Black Wednesday against the Tories.”


    Except for the fact that one DC was an adviser to N. Lamont.

  11. Latest YouGov / Sun poll: Con: 33; Lab: 27; Lib Dem: 31. Fieldwork 20-21 April 2010

  12. Colin,

    i very very rarely comment on the tone of ppls comments, but i sure think that your tone in your argument with Eoin has been belligerent.

    @ Pam F

    Yes a poll would be great to change the discussion back to numbers and reason.

  13. Éoin
    You’re welcome ;-)

    There are so many sources of info now on-line it’s great.

    Can I give you just one more quote?

    Conservative Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont said on 16th May 1991, ”Rising unemployment and the recession have been the price we have had to pay to get inflation down. That is a price well worth paying. ”

  14. @Kyle,

    STV would work for blue… you lot would return as the naturla party of government…

    Either of your 2 Irelands are good examples.

  15. When will the You Gov Poll be published – and where?

  16. GreenGrass:

    This is – almost – more exciting than footy.

    I can’t believe that – in my lifetime – we may, at long last have truly representative Government.

    Of course, I worry terribly whether it will be “strong” enough….

  17. So YouGov has been basically flat (within MOE) since the first debate. Sets things up nicely for tomorrow evening – all to play for.

  18. Kyle

    They’ve used STV in Ireland since the 1920’s and now in Northern Ireland too.

  19. @ Eoin

    “now if you do want the average of the first three years of thatchers government”

    I know what they are Eoin ;-)

    They are public property.

    I would hardly be arguing with you about them.

    You said-inflation in the 1980s was 15%.

    You did not say -the first two years of the 1980s-you said the 1980s.

    The “1980s” consisted of ten years during which the high inflation of the pre thatcher government was reduced substantially.

    That is the record of inflation in” the 1980s”

    Of course the broader economic picture includes other factors.
    I did not seek to discuss those or contest them here.

    I simply took issue with you asertion about inflation in the”1980s”

    If you now wish to change that asertion to one about the first two or three years of the “1980s” then there will be no dispute from me-the facts are available to us both.

  20. @ MIKE P

    I think they have that sort of democracy in Zimbabwe don’t they?
    —————————————————————-
    Are you offering to go there on a fact finding mission? Let Richard know if Mrs T is on the ballot there… he might want to go & support her ;-)

  21. @Kyle:
    ” Is there an example of a country using STV? because that would shed some light into it.”


    One example: the UK. Northern Ireland uses STV for all elections other than Westminster, and it works very well for us.

    I believe Scotland also uses it for local government now?

  22. @PaulCroft
    “we may, at long last have truly representative Government.”


    it’s been a long time coming. The present incumbents are standing on the shoulders of giants.

  23. TNS-BRMB….. Apr 20 Apr 13
    CON………….. 34%…….. 36%
    LIB D………….. 30%…….. 22%
    LAB……………. 29%……..33%

  24. @Roger & Kyle & Richard O

    STV was clearly a non-runner when Jenkins started to do his research – not because it is flawed as a PR system, in fact it is quite good as it wastes few people’s votes and allows electors to choose between candidates of the same party – BUT – British politicians are absolutely addicted to the idea of one member for one constituency – the proprietorial “MY” constituency syndrome. Except for a LD absolute majority House you would never get to a multi-member system…..and even then I reckon you would get some backsliding by LD backbenchers! The ONLY possible runners are to either tinker with the single-member election method (Brown’s AV or London style SV) or have a mixed Additional Member system like Scotland and Wales. Interestingly Scotland has a much greater proportion of additional “Regional” members than Wales does. This affects the degree of proportionality. See my previous posts for a Conservative-friendly possibility of a 500 FPTP seats + just 85 additional “county member” seats as a potential mild Cameron reform possibly acceptable to the LDs in the short term! Cameron could do a Disraeli (like 1867 Reform Act)and steal a march on the others with their anti-Tory AV ideas, by making the Tories the electoral reformers with a plan which looks fair but keeps the FPTP principle for the vast majority of seats.

  25. Chart up on You Gov site and actually shows the Conservatives leading the Liberal Democrats 33-32, with Labour on 27. So overall the Lib Dems are holding up well and looks like last night’s Comres was a bit out.

  26. I suppose that STV might be a good alternative. We need a system that is simple and a lot more acountable to the people. I don’t like talk of one party remaining in power forever because of the electorial system. I think that a good case has been made. I thought that there was no credible alternative.

  27. YouGov/Sun

    CON 33% (+2)
    LDEM 31% (-3)
    LAB 27% (+1)

  28. @Colin,

    For the first 1000 days of thatcher’s government they were circa.14%+

    For the decade in office they were circa.8.2%

    Thus a pint of milk costing 25p in 1979
    would have cost circa.63p by the time thatcher left office.

    Now put that cost into the budget of a single mum with a handful of young children requiring a daily calcium intake and you get quite a result. I think the word we are looking for is malnutrition.

  29. DC with Dermot O’Leary

    “Get that suit on and go for the job interview”

    Yeah girls. It works if you dress like a man!

  30. Tonights YouGov Poll:

    Con 33% + 2
    Lib 32% – 2
    Lab 27% + 1

  31. @ AL J

    I like TNS polls. This is the first we’ve had where LAB has taken a bigger hit from the LD than the CONs have. This poll makes sense to me.

    Gap between LAB & CON is 4 points (OK, TNS has 5 but we ‘know it’s actually 4).

  32. @Kyle Downing

    Northern Ireland uses STV.

    Scotlands uses STV in council elections and some form of enhanced AV/constituency model for Scottish Parliament

    Wales uses some form of constituency with pr base list top-ups.

    All give a more balanced outcome than FPTP

  33. Eoin:

    Be nice: it’s Wednesday.

  34. @AmberStar
    “OK, TNS has 5 but we ‘know it’s actually 4”

    Of course, Amber, we all know that :-)

  35. Since the camapign began, the tory vote has dropped 6.3%

    Since the camapign began, the Labour party’s vote has dropped 2.9%

    Since the campaign began, the Liberal Democrats share of the vote has increased 12.5%

    the parties are now on rounding 32%/27%/32%

    Thus the red-blue gap is down to 5.5%

  36. You Gov just showing a new voting intention for today

    33 Con
    32 LD
    27 Lab

  37. @paul,

    :) :) :)

    Has that ash cloud lifted?

    I dont mean the ash in the sky, I mean the cashley cole one? ;)

  38. ITV News: “Tories storm into one point lead”

    OK, it’s a fair cop, I made that up.

    [Mind you, come 10 pm so might they]

  39. I thought tonights Yougov had LD on 31 not 32?

  40. YouGov seats (using Lib Dem = 32) & latest Wales & Scotland:

    Con 248
    Lab 255
    L/D 115
    Oth 32

  41. @Andy Williams
    You wrote: Scotlands uses STV in council elections and some form of enhanced AV/constituency model for Scottish Parliament.

    AV/constituency model – I don’t think so….I thought they used FPTP constituencies with additional regional top-up lists by d’Hondt taking the FPTP wins into account?

    Am I correct folks, or have the Scots changed to AV+ as Andy Williams suggests?

  42. @Paul – thought it was me that noticed the shocked partisan coverage of ITV – glad I wasn’t going paranoid.

  43. New thread for YouGov

  44. New thread – YG 33-27-31

  45. @Paul Croft
    If it was up to Mr. Bradby I have no doubt that would be the story!!!

  46. I think the more newspapers like The Sun start to attack the Libs, the more their polls will solidify. People are not daft enough, not to realise the motives behind newspapers editoral decisions. Also what a stupid comment for Ken Clarke to make that a hung parliament would cause the IMF to be called in.

    Whatever Nick Clegg says, he would like the chance for his party to gain experience in government. So I could see him joining in a coalition, probably with Labour. This will be the position of the Tories, who will say that the choice is between them and a Lib/Lab coalition, with Brown/Clegg having massive rows in No.10.

    The Sky leaders debate, will probably not cause too much of a change, unless someone drops a clanger. The Tories position on the EU and dropping the cast iron guarantee on a referendum, could be raised again. Tory votes being lost to UKIP is possibly higher than polls currently suggest.

    The leader debate on the Beeb could be the game changer. If Cameron punched Brown on the nose, would this make him more or less popular. It worked for Prescot and Labour before. Perhaps Cameron should be in the ring having a few lessons.

  47. @Tony Dean

    No you are correct, I just couldn’t think of any other way to describe it. enhancedAV/ constituency model I meant FPTP when a mentioned constituency model and the weird Belgian thing when I said AV+

  48. @rob

    I’m sorry but I really do feel that is the X factor brigade giving NC this bubble.

    People have still seen NC on Prime Ministers Question Time throughout the years – BBC for all their faults of being for the Labour Party have at least shown everyone.

    If NC wasnt suddenly flavour of the month and people really were confident of the LibDem policies, I would have expected the polls to be higher before one debate.

    Its then suddenly cool (like a trend such as skateboarding when that first came out or CB radios) that everyone has to jump on the band wagon.

    I really dont believe that a lot (not all) of the new supporters know a lot about the Lib Dem policies.

    Although unfair – I would still go for FPTP.

    Normally a hung parliament would mean that another election would be around soon when people fall out with each other.

    Then eventually there would be a clear government (whoever it is) to make the relevant decisions.

    The fact that Libs and Labour want to immediately change the voting system so the Tories dont get back in – and get rid of the House of Lords smacks of being stitch up – and bad for the country.

    By this I mean that even if the Tories won, its like Ying and Yang (is that the phrase?) – it is always good to have an opposite.

    By wiping this away and only having centre left policies is very manipulative for trying to stifle any opposition

  49. On the various electoral systems debate – Scotland is the best example in the United Kingdom, using:

    First Past the Post – for Westminster elections
    STV – for local council elections
    Additional Member – for Scottish Parliament elections
    D’Hondt List PR – for European elections

    Northern Ireland uses STV for every election except Westminster elections. And there, one may as well use party list votes as most of the population vote along ethnic lines and do not switch much between parties.

  50. But tomorrow ComRes is going to show the Tories slipping back to around 33 becuase of the rogue sample yesterday. Only nobody will notice because of…you know what.

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