ComRes’s poll tonight has topline figures of CON 35%(+3), LAB 26%(-2), LDEM 26%(-2). This puts the Conservatives nine points ahead, the biggest lead they’ve had since February from ComRes. Obviously it’s showing a different trend to the other polls tonight, but it is worth noting that ComRes’s fieldwork was done on Sunday and Monday, so this poll is actually a day older than the Angus Reid, Populus and YouGov data we’ve seen so far this morning. On that basis, I suspect this is just an outlier – if the Liberal Democrat bubble really had burst, we’d have expected to see evidence of it in the other three polls tonight.

One thing that does strike me is that ComRes are using a rolling poll – half the fieldwork for this poll was also used in yesterday’s poll. With that in mind, there must have been a very high Conservative score in today’s fieldwork (or a very low Conservative score in the Saturday data that’s dropped off) in order to shift their vote by 3 points.


774 Responses to “ComRes show 9 point Tory lead”

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  1. @ Tony Dean

    “Does your 16 polls include last night’s ComRes?
    If so, can you leave it out and see what you get please, just out of interest?”

    They do yes, leaving out that one it’s not too much difference:

    Cons 32%
    Lab 26.9%
    LDems 30.9%

    Since 2005
    Cons>LDems swing 4.65%
    Lab>LDems swing 8.47
    Lab>Con swing 5.27

  2. @Eoin ‘now when is that yellow bubble gonna burst?
    Because i am sorry to say- it will burst.’

    Eoin, I’m pleased for you that the slowly receding relevance of the Lab-Con gap is turning out just as you forecast, but if we’ve learnt nothing else from your wit and wisdom these past few months, it’s that you’ll only be truly sorry if the Lib Dem phenomenon turns out not to be a bubble and therefore fails to burst.

    What if it’s a popular insurgency, Eoin?

  3. The reason I raise the point is to ascertain if it happens it england?

    Pray do tell…..

  4. @wolf,

    oooh! I like insurgencies :) :)

  5. Well, I found the answer to my own question, according to the Electoral Office for Northern Ireland you can use a driving licence or a password among other ID.

    http://www.eoni.org.uk/index/electoral-identity-card.htm

    @ Mitz

    You don’t need ID to vote here, I voted last year just by turning up and giving my name and address.

  6. EOIN. Quite possibly, but I have never heard of it. Certainly there are cases of abuse in all walks of life, and I would regard this as abuse.

  7. Interesting

    the red – blue swing is 3.55% by those polls- check it again dude :)

  8. Wolf,

    You’re great you are. Perfectly brilliant satire, AND you agree with me!

  9. Damn, moderated.

    Try again…

    Well, I found the answer to my own question, according to the Electoral Office for Northern Ireland you can use a driving licence or a password among other ID.

    http://www.eoni.org.uk/index/electoral-identity-card.htm

    @ Mitz

    You don’t need ID to vote here, I voted last year just by turning up and giving my name and address.

  10. Pam F,

    My lovely step-mother (affectionately known as the WSM) refers to everyone in the family a generation or more behind her as “the Kids”. The oldest member of this group is my brother-in-law, who turns 52 on Friday.

  11. new thread folks

    shame I was enjoying this one ;-)

  12. Lib Dems Scottish election director Alistair Carmichael has said 37% for them and leading a government at least being senior partner in coalition is looking “increasingly likely”

  13. How did you work that out Eoin, I thought you added the change in Lab and Cons figures together and divided by 2?

    Cons down 1.24 since 2005 and Lab down 9.3% since 2005

    Doesn’t that make 5.27% Lab>Cons swing since 2005? :s

  14. 1 Postal votes for the local elections are starting to go out from now, not sure all local authorities will be sending out postal votes for the GE just yet.
    2 You do not need any form of identity to be able to cast your vote at a polling station in England. Think it also applies to Wales and Scotland. Just turn up and say who you are.

  15. @Neil
    ‘@Wolf,I appreciate your comment was in jest, but the suspicion that people on the left think that criminals steal to buy food is one of the reasons that this liberal-minded, moderate Tory police officer is never likely to “go Yellow”.’

    Neil, my fault entirely for not being a competent enough satirist to include drug addiction being the fuel for most property theft, but it’s a bit unimaginative of you, surely, not to cut me a little slack about one of the possible consequences of cutting people off benefits?

    And it’s unbecoming stereotyping to label all Liberals in that way, as I well know from my Lib Dem police officer friends and acquaintaces.

  16. Interesting,

    No.

    Takeaway the tory drop from the labour drop then divide by two

    4% swing?

  17. Oh, with 2 negative figures you use minus rather than plus before dividing!

    Thank you Eoin. I’m becoming far too “nerdy” you know these days as things are getting tight :)

  18. There is a lot of arithmetic being done on averages of polls. If they were settled and if we didn’t have so much churn and undecided, it would be more indicative.

    The polls are telling us that the Tories can’t win it. Labour can’t win it. But the Lib Dems potentially can.

    With the kind of fluidity on these polls, you can put a range that each party can expect to perform to and its very wide 31-38 blue;24-33 red; 25-36 yellow as the yellow has Momentum and it can either slip back a big tad or continue to climb a big tad (say +/- 5.5%)

    My own personal view is tomorrow’s debate will be decisive in giving the Lib Dems the 36% consolidated for Sunday based on Friday and Saturday polling. Another game changer!

    In those circumstances, it is quite conceivable with with the economy debate to come, labour sinking, Tories continuing to be at sixes & sevens that the Lib Dems Big Mo pushes them to 41/42% on polling day> Depending on share of vote of the other parties, 41.2% is what I calculate need to form a majority government.

    I confess I have a 200-1 financial interest in most seats and 16-1 on 100+ seats and humongest money on the hung Parliament at 7/4 and 6/4.

  19. Interesting,

    I sympathise on all three counts… since I share them in equal measure

  20. Wolf MacNeill – “I think lefties should stop mocking the Tory plan to cut off the benefits of the workshy. It’s perfectly coherent with other manifesto commitments,”

    I’m sure this won’t elicit any sympathy, but when I went to collect my son from school today a single Mum and an obviously disabled woman were crying as they discussed the new Tory poster. I knew them, and one of them said “Cheats will always cheat, it is us who will suffer from this.” They went on to discuss the utter humiliation of having to attend medicals and “Lone Parent Assessments” where they had to produce passports, rental agreements, medications etc to prove their status.
    The rules are already stringent, humiliating, degrading, complex, excluding, insulting, judgemental and to make a successful claim, often a truly disabled person needs the help of a lawyer.

    Cheats will always cheat. The Tories will be no more successful at catching them.

  21. Wolf Mac neil, now I see it was a joke, but sorry, sore point

  22. @ All

    Something to consider whilst we wait.

    The speaker is currently provided from the MPs. Does that not disenfranchise the voters of that constituency? Currently the Speaker is from a Con seat. It has been convention that the speakers seat is not challenged, but in this election there is a challenge. Normally the speaker supports the status quo in the event of tied votes, particulary important in the passage of budgets and votes of confidence. But the next Parliament the Speaker may not be from the govt party. So in effect he is ‘voting’ for the ‘opposition’. The position of the speaker and his impartiality was questioned by many. Is it not time that an impartial non-MP took on this role, a member of the judiciary for example? It which case should the two Deputy speakers also not be impartial non-MPs.

  23. Re SHN,

    I hope you mean passport and not password.

  24. @Dave – “When will the Liberals learn that by splitting the left vote they make victory of the right inevitable?”

    When they hae moe seats than Labour.

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