YouGov’s daily poll has topline figures of CON 31%(-2), LAB 26%(-1), LDEM 34%(+3). YouGov seem to be bouncing back and forth between Lib Dem and Conservative leads, realistically the movement is probably all margin of error stuff and true position that the Conservatives and Lib Dems are neck and neck. It’s worth noting however that this is the highest Lib Dem score recorded so far by YouGov.


233 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 31/26/34”

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  1. I really hope we have a coalition government; it will mean (due to PR Upper House and preferential voting Lower House) that we finally have a government voted in by the majority of the people (like in many other countries). I like the thought of parties needing to get agreement with other parties- it works elsewhere, no reason for it to not work here

  2. Xiby

    I agree!

    Lets be one big happy family!

    Hugs all round Paul and Polly :)

  3. Not that I currently believe 6/5 will poll like these polls but lets say LD do get high 30s or even low 40%s and form a govt. in their own right with their leader as PM . . . . would they push for ER then? Would there be a need, would it not show that FPTTP can deliver ?

  4. @ROB SHEFFIELD

    Are you sure?
    Right now the twitter pages have this:

    # @tomhappold you are wrong about 3 hours ago via HootSuite in reply to tomhappold

    Now if you click on the “in reply to tomhappold ” for that message, it takes you to:

    @Andrew_ComRes “humdinger” poll gives Tories 9-pt lead: Con 35%, Lab & Lib Dem 28% each. Still no overall maj but Cameron will breath easier

    We’ll find out soon enough anyway!! :)

  5. @Neil A,

    Only in my analysis!

    Of course the only party standing in my constituency of those three is Blues. But that is a different story. :)

  6. OK so where are the LDs ‘weak’ – immigration, LAO, Europe. Makes for a rocky second debate for Nick. BUT those issues play with a section of the population who largely aren’t voting LD anyway (even in these polls I suspect).

    What are the big issues for the public – the economy and cleaning up politics. On the economy the LDs have the blessed Vince. On cleaning up politics they have a plan which seems more than the other two major parties can claim to have.

    The issue – as others have said – is whether people will face the ballot paper and return to their old political affiliations. I’m old and cynical enough to suspect that some will but the Daily Telegraph stirred up a hurricane with the expenses row and its just possible that we aren’t in Kansas any more…

  7. Inter 3, Barcelona 1.
    Now I’m ready to believe anything’s possible.

  8. SDLP take the Labour whip. Go on, you will, you will, you will……. ;)

    (Apologies for vaguely racist-sounding Father Ted reference…)

  9. @Neil,

    Once I like someone they are free to take the mickey! :)

    Oh I miss Roland!

    Anyway the Stoop Down Low Party- never!

    I met our MP last (wed) I think…. refused a leaflet from the good chap…

  10. Mourinho to replace Cameron is the latest rumour

  11. 10 poll average now 32 – 26.7 – 31 giving a Con lead of 1 over LD and 5.4 over Lab. If we’re promised a humdinger later this evening, LD may well be draw level with Con on the rolling average.

  12. I’ve given up on Twitter tonight -everyone’s confused.
    This is a very long wait for ComRes.

    I need some of Paul’s cocoa. ;-)

  13. @Andrew,

    With the usual disclaimers about anecdotal evidence, what I’ve found is that a lot of people with only very marginal interest in politics have been impressed by Clegg as a person. The little interest that many of those people have in politics is often a mild anti-European, anti-immigrant, anti-criminal sensibility which doesn’t sit well with some of the LibDems’ headline policies.

    There are certainly some people who will be enthused by the LibDems, investigate further, and then be put off by what they find. There will of course be others who investigate and love everything they read. The question is the balance between them. I have no idea what it will be.

  14. Al J – I’m so glad to see you, Can I have valium in my cocoa please, and don’t go anywhere til ComRes are oout in case we need another of those group hugs.

  15. Im pretty sure Eoin said in a previous post the only pollsters we can trust are yougov and comres and that they had shown decrease in liberal support, curious to what eoin thinks now…

  16. Trevor:

    Ta for your response and glad I touched you. However, it’s not faith, it’s reason. What I said was that, “”whatever” the makeup of the next parliament” [including, by definition, Cameron or a Cameron coaltion], that new government will act responsibly. I believe, given the circumstances, that will prove true.

    Polly:

    There have been far less restrained comments on this forum in the short time I’ve been reading and posting, than those I have made to you, yet no-one seems to have reacted as you always seem to do.

    My point was a very simple one: if someone wishes to argue that a £10K starting rate of tax [as one of a raft of examples] is a weak policy, and can explain their rationale, then we have the beginning of a debate – albeit slightly outwith the forum rules, if strictly applied.

    I am attracted to that policy, and a number of others, but I can assure you I am open to well-argued persuasion that they’re not as good as I imagine them to be.

    I’m not open to the idea that any party has “no” policies, which is why I think that’s a silly thing for anyone to say.

    Changing the subject, Jon Sopel’s tone of voice is driving me mad. A sort of Paxman-lite sound

  17. Comres has Libs at 41%

  18. Despite all this excitement, anyone know why there were two ARs in such quick succession?

  19. Thank you XIBY..I agree, and I don’t want that either but I won’t have someone keep attacking me with snide comments consistently when we have all been guilty of some partisan and predicting comments

    I don’t pull people up on it as it doesn’t really bother me, but I won’t be bullied either.

    Thanks Eoin as well..I’ll leave it at that.

  20. Steady on people, ComRes is a just one rolling poll- Probably a rogue one at that. What will you all do on May 6? Exit Poll @ 10.00pm Results Midnight onwards. Why has no-one mentioned a red blue alliance, maybe a red green yellow and orange one as we seem to have entered the land of OZ?

  21. Comres have done a magnificent job of publicising this poll, but we must remember that they are still just one poll of four released this evening, all with up-to-date field work.

    That comres’s result may be more dramatic doesn’t make it any more – or less – valid than the other polls.

  22. And to think – tomorrow we will be just HALF WAY through the ‘official’ campaign !

  23. Andrew: “What are the big issues for the public – the economy and cleaning up politics. On the economy the LDs have the blessed Vince. On cleaning up politics they have a plan which seems more than the other two major parties can claim to have.”

    I doubt if any of them are really any good on the economy.

    On cleaning up politics, likewise. Introducing voting reform will not clean up politics. There is plenty of corruption in countries with PR. Italy manages extreme corruption under all systems!! The fault is with the party machine – and some PR systems can make that worse.

    There are good arguments for the LibDems constitution package, but it is power that corrupts, so none of their reforms will “clean up” politics.

  24. rosie p

    no – they would still be committed to PR as they have been saying for as long as I can remember that 40% is a minority and doesn’t give a mandate to govern

    Whether you believe they will stick to that when in power is subjective and varies in proportion to your cynicism I guess

  25. Just dropping in to point out that YouGov has three consistent polls in a row with LD above 30 (33 31 34).

    The full list is
    32 26 33 (18th)
    33 27 31 (19th)
    31 26 34 tonight

    Comres is a rolling poll so until its results are produced with similar identifiable constistency I don’t really think you should get too excited.

  26. 41% in Cornwall that is

  27. @sue – “why there were two ARs in such quick succession?”

    Something to do to pass time at the airport perhaps?

  28. Sue

    This is sheer torture. Where’s Amber? You can have a dash of Cogniac in your cocoa lol :-) & a hug.

    Now steady on, we’ve only got 33 minutes left ;-)

  29. Dear NickP – another charmingly naive response.

    ‘economists’ … well how can i put it? don’t make me laugh. Brown and Darling have managed the recession well have they? That will be Darling who has been opposed by Brown at every stage??

    That will be the scrappage scheme which did wonders for car production in India and S.Korea?
    That the economy only declined by a record breaking 6.2%?
    That we have 200 billion of printed money buying our own debt?
    That inflation is suddenly racing ahead?

    Brown and Darling simply spending money they (we) do not have is good management?

    Pardon me but what we have is Brown and Darling perpetuating a good old fashioned pre election boom … low interest rates as usual leading to a sudden rise in inflation, a rash of rash spending adding to inflation pressure – all about to explode after the election. Debt piling up. All from a low and in this case disastrous base, but the same old thing none the less. We still have govt spending totally out of control just before an election. A heavy price to pay later.

  30. Im a daily poll watch… yes i admit it…. But never been as excited as for this comres one, it better be good ;)

  31. I dont know many students with a fixed telephone line at the moment . Can some one explain how a Poll conducted by telephone can pick up these votes. Perhaps the LibDem figure is closer to 50% in reality?

  32. @ AL J & Sue

    I’ve been lurking ;-)

  33. @ROSIE P
    “Not that I currently believe 6/5 will poll like these polls but lets say LD do get high 30s or even low 40%s and form a govt. in their own right with their leader as PM . . . . would they push for ER then? Would there be a need, would it not show that FPTTP can deliver ?”

    The Lib Dem members would not let a Lib Dem government get away with renaging on PR, even if they did win an overall majority on FPTP. PR is wired into our brains. And even if LD did form a majority gov this time there’s no guarantee that it would happen next time.

    In 1997 I said to a Labour supporting friend straight after the election that Blair should get PR in straight away and guarantee that Labour would be in a coalition gov for the rest of time, and that the Tories would never get another chance. Sadly he proved too greedy and spineless to make the leap.

  34. Aside from the happier predictions, could these numbers not also herald a constitutional crisis?

  35. Amber

    I feel better already ;-) ;-)

  36. @Sindel,

    I don’t buy this talk of constitutional crisis. The most likely consequence of a manifestly “unfair” arrangement after the election would be a drop in support for the government, and even that’s by no means probable. After all most of our election results are unfair (all of them if you’re a LibDem etc)

  37. No Constitutional crisis. Someone will form a government even if it means individuals leaving their parent party and becoming independent.

  38. IMO – Nothing except:

    1. LIB DEMS large enough share to form a government; OR
    2. ALL 3 parties neck & neck
    would qualify as a “humdinger”.

    LAB lead would be a “shocker”
    CON big lead would be a “surprising about-turn” in the polls.

  39. @Sindel

    If translated into the scenario lowest votes/ highest seats and vice versa then potentially yes
    The real nightmare scenario would be lowest votes/ outright majority and refusal to countenance PR

    GB would be alright in that scenario as he’s already promised AV and could fudge it – a bit like the Scottish devoloution promises prior to 1974, which GB will be well aware of.

    DC would find it more difficult but from what I have read from the expert psephologists here a Con win with the lowest popular vote is highly unlikely so I think no constitutional crisis – unless you had an alternative scenario in mind?

  40. I do think it’s hugely unfair to blame politicians of any party for kneejerk reactions to the media response.

    As an example Brown is now being criticised for:

    1/ Doing nothing for stranded Britons [in the middle of a natural disaster the outcome of which even experts can’t predict] and

    2/ Doing more than is necessary [bringing in the navy for example] because there’s an election on.

    The same sniping is aimed at all politicians from many sections of the media and is really juvenile.

    Because so few of us really know that much about the real detail of parties’ policies, I wondered if there should be a test we have to pass before we vote. Made me think of that great scene in “The office” when Ricky Gervais was discussing a list of possible responses to a questionairre, and the big bloke kept saying:

    “What was option one again”?

  41. Amber – I was thinking the same Con +3, Lib/Lab -2 is hardly a humdinger

  42. And if this COMRES turns out to be a CON lead of 9%, that is exactly the lead my Computer whizz friend got from his model.

    Any chance he’s behind that rumour? I wouldn’t be surprised :-)

  43. Comres publishes results made up of two 50%, right ?

    Do we know what the first 50% poll says [ leaving out the previous days ] ? Then we will have an idea what today’s might say.

  44. NeilA – Yes you may have a point there. I agree.

    Joseph1832 – On the economy – maybe. But Vince against Darling and Osborne. We may not like any of them but that just neutralises the issue.

    On corruption – we have a mention of Italy! The corrupt politicians are of course desperately working to introduce a system to their benefit over there. It’s basically a two-party system with lots of FPTP involved. That’s not a coincidence you know!

    But however you view that – the fact remains that the LDs have a plan (whether effective or not) to tackle the current failed system and the others don’t.

  45. Neil A

    That is a tremendously collegiate post and I hope that if I ever am arrested it’s you with the cuffs.

    You can have no idea how we feel, those of us who have made the long march.

  46. @Paul Croft,

    I don’t have any real criticism of the government over the Ash Crisis. Like the LibDem surge it was totally unprecedented. I think you’re missing an option 3) off your list though.

    3) Doing unnecessary and showy things that generate publicity but don’t actually help whilst failing to organise the things that actually could help.

  47. LD enough % to form gov.

  48. Al J:

    I’ve already overstocked on bikkies on the basis I was coming to your election rave, only to find I’m not invited anymore so, with great respect, you’ll have to get your own cocoa.

  49. YG, AR and Populus are all within MOE of 32/26/32.

    If Comres are miles away from that, that’s not a “humdinger” – it’s an outlier.

    Some people don’t like daily polls, but they do have one big advantage – it prevents one unusual poll getting too much emphasis.

  50. politics home are quoting COMRES 35/26/26 with tories leading – lets hope its just them being fooled by the mis-tweet!

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