YouGov’s daily poll has topline figures of CON 31%(-2), LAB 26%(-1), LDEM 34%(+3). YouGov seem to be bouncing back and forth between Lib Dem and Conservative leads, realistically the movement is probably all margin of error stuff and true position that the Conservatives and Lib Dems are neck and neck. It’s worth noting however that this is the highest Lib Dem score recorded so far by YouGov.


233 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 31/26/34”

1 2 3 4 5
  1. Hmmmm… Brown screws up the “Dunkirk Spirit” narrative with a coach-blunder and suddenly the airports are opened….

    Lucky I am not in any way a cynic… ;)

    (This is a jest by the way.. don’t flame me!)

  2. It’s becoming increasingly tiresome to read criticisms of leaders/parties that deal in soundbites rather than debating facts.

    Read TrevorsDen and PollyT for numerous examples.

    I can completely understand someone arguing, reasonably and intelligently, against specific policies but isn’t: “dishonest” ” “NO policies” [!!!} “saying nothing” etc etc
    getting a little bit desperate?

    Rather like: “armies of benefit claimants living in luxury” !!

  3. Dan the Man

    Remember as well that the 10-12 mill held all the way through. How many watched say 30-40 minutes? You can add a lot of people that way.

    (All right who else apart from me turned over for HIGNFY?)

  4. If the 35 was for Labour
    THAT would be a humdinger

  5. Well said, Paul – you’re bang on the money, as usual.

  6. On the Com Res website it says 32/28/28 – not a humdinger after all…

  7. Andy you should publish this you gov poll.. you appear to have missed it.

    How would you vote if you thought CLEGG could win..

    LD 49%
    CON25%
    LAB 19%

    Im telling you guys it is a typical LD by election.. start with no hope and end up romping it.. I just hope some of them duck pond MPs are kicked out in the process

    here is source http://www1.politicalbetting.com/

  8. 1. the flight ban is lifted
    2. IMF plan two taxes on banks
    3. Economic optimism is about to rocket
    4. Economy debate lie ahead
    5. Tory leaning libs will drift back to party- terrified they’ll save Brown
    6. This produces a knock on effect to the labour party
    7. Polarising campaign all the way to election day

    That’s how I see the campaign developing

  9. Awww – drat Jay!!

    I wanted the Pixies in first place….

    Those damn Unicorns don’t give a stuff about our national health service…

  10. neil A

    “I am pretty sceptical about the LibDem score exceeding 35%”

    Yep- it is looking more and more like 30/ 25/ 35 on May 6th…

  11. “No guarantees that people will vote for PR – tribal Conservatives and Labour (Prescott for exampel) would not want PR because you never get a single party in power again.”

    If (and it is a big if) the LibDems do make a major breakthrough then it’s unlikely that any party would get a majority of seats in the future anyway. With that, one of the main arguments for retaining FPTP would vanish. One of the others, that it’s somehow too complicated/not our system has already fallen by the wayside due to usage in Scotland, Euro elections, GLA elections etc.

  12. Re Com Res rumour…surely a 9 point Tory lead would be so out of line with all the other polls as to be very very suspicious!!?

  13. @NICK P

    That’s yesterday’s poll… they haven’t added today’s yet

  14. Nick P – that is yesterday silly, and already about a century old if rumours are to be believed ;)

  15. Roger Mex,

    I watched the repeat of HIGNFY a couple of nights later. Funny/ironic how lazily cynical they were about Nick the Nobody…

  16. Re comres, if you look at andrew_comres’s feed you will see that his “you are wrong” is in response to this tweet:

    @Andrew_ComRes “humdinger” poll gives Tories 9-pt lead: Con 35%, Lab & Lib Dem 28% each. Still no overall maj but Cameron will breath easier

    The same tweeter then later tweeted:

    D’oh. Meant to say: @Andrew_ComRes “humdinger” poll gives Tories 9-pt lead: Con 35%, Lab & Lib Dem 26% each

    Which wasn’t denied.. so make of that what you will. However 35/26/26, whether con or ld on 35, doesn’t square with the three other polls tonight.

  17. Well Rob – not very democratic from the supposed “honest” party. Even if they came first (big if) with 34% that is not a mandate to unilaterally change the voting system. There would be a need for a referendum. I suppose we should be glad they didn`t offer one because they may be inclined to break their promise as they did over the Lisbon treaty – they did not vote for a treaty on that.

    Thank God we didn`t join the Euro as the LD wanted or we would be like Greece. No room to cut interest rates or do quantitative easing. Great judgment!!

  18. ComRes guy latest tweet

    “@mr_onions I corrected a specifically incorrect rumour”

  19. Oops! Apologies, I’m clearly living a day in arrearrs…

  20. Just read on titter.

    Labour 35, Libs 26, Cons 26.

    They are calling it the Brown bounce.

  21. Dear Paul Croft – your faith is touching.

    Brown has spent the last 6 to 12 months ignoring the economic needs of the country – putting his political needs first.

    Now LD supporters are falling over themselves to keep Labour in office. And we are to believe that this is for the good of the country?
    And they would have us believe that they are pure white and unsullied, that they only they are untouched by political graft? LDs did not do very well out of expenses, and anyone who wants to ignore that based on a disingenuous statement from Clegg is seriously naive.

    And its labour who have totally squandered a benign economic legacy from the tories – are we to believe that Labour will behave in a way that will reward labour for this? Well stranger things have happened.

    But on polling – are we really confident that the polls are truly reflecting the real situation? Where is all the hard soft liberals where is the certainty to vote and all the other shenanigins?

  22. @Nick P,

    I agree with you nick

  23. And I’m a little tired of you Paul, with your constant snipes at those who don’t agree with you..It’s becoming irksome to say the least and you are the only one it seems who keeps bringing it up.
    I am having fun on here and enjoying it taking no offence or being precious about what anyone says. You are the only one.
    You seem to like to have a pop at me and see it as a hobby. I have nothing against you or any of your posts nor would I. Please disist, or be very careful that all your post have no predictions, opinions or say anything that you can’t back up without having to resort to your wonderful quips or winks..

    Sorry AW and everyone but I don’t feel why I should have to put up with this.

    Rant over

  24. ComRes are loving every minute of this aren’t they????
    Put us out of our misery PLEASE.

  25. I suspect the Comres man would deny any rumour given that there is an embargo until 10pm. Labour 26% sounds in line with other polls – a 9 point lead for Conservatives sounds improbable, a 9 point lead for LibDems over both Labour and Conservative also seems improbable. What one can safely say is that there is a Comres poll tonight. Best I can do.

  26. I’m hearing rumours that ComRes is 35 Green/26 UKIP/26 Respect.

  27. Jay Blanc:

    Unbelievable!! The goblins have no policies at all – for example on the elf service – and are mired in -err — oh yes.. mire.

    Mitz: Ta.

  28. (Note to self. Stay calm Mitz. Even if it’s LD 20 Lab 20 Con 20 Monster Raving Loonies 40 it’s only one poll…)

    Please tell me we’ll have the definite number soon!

  29. This is becoming a self full filling loop as others have said.

    What’s more as the Lib Dems/Clegg become the story, the media move from can they? to a narrative of who can stop them?

    IF comres is 35/26/26 in that order then it and not the others is the rogue poll… either that or they have been first to see a Lib Dem collapse. Nope, I can’t see that as the way of things!

    Now even the IMF agrees with the Lib Dems on Banks …tax those f******s not just once …but twice!

  30. I heard a rumour that the ComRes team got stuck in Italy because of the flight ban and the real figures are Forza Italia 35 / Olive Coalition 26 / Italian Communists 26….

  31. @pankot

    “The same tweeter then later tweeted:
    D’oh. Meant to say: @Andrew_ComRes “humdinger” poll gives Tories 9-pt lead: Con 35%, Lab & Lib Dem 26% each”

    Comres Guy responded with correction to the SECOND tweet saying 35/26/26 and 9 pt lead…see the timing….!

  32. 35 26 26 doesnt square with other polls but almost certainly the GE result will be something similar with the tories enjoying commanding lead.
    Tory Liberals fearing they will let in Brown will drift back to Tories. But Labour Liberals will stay with Liberals. labour will suffer the worst defeat in its history vote wise.. Tories will be in majority government. And all Liberals will have achieved will be a 3 point rise in their vote and the end of their hopes of electoral reform.
    Its not what I want to happen but I think it will.

  33. I hope for ComRes’s sake our socks really are knocked off.
    The only one that would do it for me would be for Labour to be well ahead.
    Unlikely I’m afraid.

  34. Latest post on Twitter from Andrew_ComRes:

    “@esbagshaw #fb for clarity I said a very specific rumour was wrong…all will be confirmed at ten”

  35. @Julian,

    I’m with you… it would a party in Belfast if that was the result!

    Prost!

  36. yakobs

    “What one can safely say is that there is a Comres poll tonight. Best I can do.”

    yep- back at 10:00 watch the rest of the footie.

  37. Trevorsden

    That’s a pretty partisan view – I work with commercial economists and most of them seem to think Brown and Darling have done a pretty good job of managing the recession (the charge of being asleep at the wheel leading up to 2008 us harder to deny).

    It is straight fact that LDems had fewer MPs facing accusations on expenses (both absolute and relative numbers) than Tory or Labour – in fact the Torygraph reported as such, which is unlikely if not true given their leanings. Many LDs were like Howarth in Cambridge who commuted from Cambridge to Westminster every day and never claimed a penny.

    None of that makes Clegg honest of course…

    NickP

  38. Thought you were a neutral, Eoin?! ;)

  39. If Mr Andrew ComRes doesn’t have something truly spectacular he’s going to have a lynch mob on his hands!

  40. @dave
    As a Labour leaning poster I also think the Tories will get a majority, small but workable.

  41. Any truth in the rumour that there is a ComRes poll tonight

  42. the comres website has the data
    32/28/28

    http://www.comres.co.uk/election2010.aspx

  43. the latest tweets seem to suggest that 35-26-26 is incorrect.

    anyone like to make a prediction?

  44. Andy Williams LMAO again.

    By the way if the unicorns DO get in I’m emigrating!

  45. The comres site has yesterdays poll – silly me! Getting to excited.

  46. Rob Sheffield

    Yes, footie is best. Lost track of the score a bit but the rumour is Inter 35 Barcelona 26 referee 26 (ie 26 wrong decisions)

  47. Folks lets discuss polls, numbers, trends and predictions which is after all what this site is for (and sleepless nights, falling behind on work, not spending enough time with family and back pain due to hunching over a laptop for too long which is the undisputed cause of this election)

    Leave name calling, snipe and policy discussions at the door plz. It has been nice and civil, lets keep it that way. If you dont like or agree something point it out nicely and politely and then move onto other discussions.

  48. Why is the volcanic ash causing a postponement of the Election till June?

    So says Twitter!!

  49. 35 aeroplanes, 26 channel ferries and 26 volcanoes

    All Uk airports open at 10pm, forget the dam poll ….leap for your air raid bunkers!

  50. I’ll make a prediction – LD above 30, Tory and LibDem below.

1 2 3 4 5