YouGov’s daily poll has topline figures of CON 31%(-2), LAB 26%(-1), LDEM 34%(+3). YouGov seem to be bouncing back and forth between Lib Dem and Conservative leads, realistically the movement is probably all margin of error stuff and true position that the Conservatives and Lib Dems are neck and neck. It’s worth noting however that this is the highest Lib Dem score recorded so far by YouGov.


233 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 31/26/34”

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  1. YG poll on electoral calculus

    CON 236
    LAB 230
    LIB 152
    NAT 11
    MIN 3

    Lib Dems have most votes by 2%:

    Clegg is PM with Labour support (382 seat coalition)

    Full PR- no single party majority government EVER again….

  2. oops- should have saud

    “Lib Dems have most votes by *3%*”

    Clearly the narrative of this election is:

    “Cameron and Brown get the F*ck out of here”

    ;-)

  3. Humdinger!!

  4. Further evidence that Labour are close to 25% as I just said.

  5. Hardly a Humdinger Mark S……..Must do better..

  6. are the polls now actually feeding the LD position like a vicious cycle? good poll = good press = better poll = better press

  7. Is that the lowest YG figure for the blues for a couple of years?

  8. Lib Dem surge is now established.

    People see NC for what he is, honest.

    Pity that GB has been economical with the truth re provison of coaches & air craft carriers to get our folks home

  9. This will divert the shine of the comres poll (if the rumours of 35 26 26 are right) and add to general state of confusion. Why am I posting on rumours? I am now totally addicted, when is the comres poll going to be offical so that i can feed my habit…?

  10. This result makes the Comres showing LD on 35% more probable…….

  11. I have also been thinking that by Sunday the Lib Dems will be averaging higher the Cons, but it seems it may come sooner.

  12. Dunno about neck and neck and bouncing back and forth, looks like a broad move to libs to me. yougov lately
    Libs: 22-30-29-33-31-34.
    Cons:37-33-33-32-33-31.
    Lab: 31-28-30-26-27-26.

    Some bouncing, but the trend is fairly clear….libs moving up, cons moving down….lab crashed (but possibly stabilised at the ~core).

  13. Labour could still win most seats, even finishing third.

    If this were to happen, Brown may step aside and David Miliband would be PM, Clegg would be foreign secretary and Cable would be chancellor.

  14. This brings to light the increasing problem with FPTP: even though they have by far less of the vote than the other two parties, on a UNS prediction Labour still hold more seats, including 80 or so more than the lib dems.

    Labour are currently polling the lowest results ever for the
    governing party. The majority of the public does not want them, which is reflected in polls. Why then, do they still seem to be able to hold more seats? This election could present the unique situation of a party with a good 6% less of the vote than its opponents having more seats – this will almost certainly cause an outcry. Even if Labour remain in ‘control’, I doubt GB will hang onto power for long – public opinion will be very much against him.

    Viva la lib dems!

  15. Any more like this and I’m going to burst. This is the best election ever!

  16. Mark..

    “People see NC for what he is, honest.”

    Hmmmm…we’ll see. Most of the general public really know NOTHING about him really….or even most of his policies. He has a very tough time ahead I feel.

  17. The Comres poll will cause a riot if it’s true.

    Still not holding my breath on STV, but AV or AV+ at the very least must surely be on the cards now, and this country is changed for ever.

    *jigs*

  18. @Rob Sheffield
    Agreed!

  19. I wonder what the bookies are offering now. The next debate is key for Clegg. If he wins hands down then I might put on a bet for him to gain 41% or so and win with an outright majority!

  20. Wow – 3% lead for the Lib Dems?

    If Cameron doesn’t perform well in the next two debates then who would bet against the Lib Dems pulling clear?

  21. brown step aside -dont be deluded

  22. That is Tories and Labour both down on their 2005 score. Michael Howard and co. scored higher.

    I wonder are polls methodologically sound for popularity bandwagons. Blair’s for example was +10 wasn’t it.

    Shy Tories
    Bashful Browns

    do we have Leg pulling Libs? Or Clegg pulling libs?

    How do we calculate these new Lib’s loyalties? Are we calling them soft libs? I’m very interested in the methodological response.

  23. Oh well then, just need a decent days weather for the poll proper.

    Latest forecast looks likely to be cool with some showers – most showers in eastern and south eastern england!

    But like comres & co. that could change!

  24. Wood – On tonight’s figures, that is Con – 6, Lab – 5 since the lib Dem surge and a 5 point Lab/Con gap. still more crashy for the Tories.
    I agree that it makes ComRes look more like Lib 35 Lab Con 26 in which case we’ll all be posting til about 5 am

  25. @Polly tricks

    “Hmmmm…we’ll see. Most of the general public really know NOTHING about him really….or even most of his policies. He has a very tough time ahead I feel.”

    Keep trying – at least you might convince yourself

    :-)

  26. Are Labour going to go into third place with the UKPR polling average as a result of the latest polls?

  27. Soft Libs? More like soft Tories and soggy Labour flirting with the idea of Clegg.I do expect a lot of them to be scared back to the fold come polling day.

  28. I just put £20 on the Lib Dems. The odds are surely only going to come down from now on.

  29. Why don’t you agree then Rob..? Explain….?

  30. @Neil

    Clegg may “get away” with this next debate. Being on Sky News I’d reckon an audience of 5m at the most will watch it – the rest will be highlights and Youtube clips (which given the social media wave of enthusiasm for Clegg at the moment can only help the Lib Dems)

    @Adrian

    If the Lib Dems make it a dealbreaker, then Brown may have to step aside. In a hung parliament situation where no side has the “moral victory”, as seems increasingly likely, the Liberals may be able to bargain for whatever they want. If the alternative is a LD coalition with the Tories, Brown COULD be forcde to step aside.

  31. I think it is true that yougov polls show that Nick Clegg is popular but several Lib Dem policies are not.

    As the election approaches I fear that the “tory liberals” will return home to the tories because they dont really believe in Lib Dem policies, the “labour liberals will not return to Labour. Result a tory government with a majority. As Nick Robinson suggests there will be a last minute momentous change. The tories will benefit from Liberals taking votes from Labour to split centre left vote.

  32. surely the Tories can’t have crashed to 26%?
    Im not a Conservative but I would struggle to believe that. All bets really would be off then

  33. My guess is that LD’s have stormed to a lead in the ComRes poll.

  34. Labour Polling Michael Foot figures!

    Tories Polling William Hague figures !

    Lib Dems in the lead and the tories are odds on to win. This election is confusing to say the least………………………….but absolutely mesmerising

  35. @Eoghan O’Neill

    “Still not holding my breath on STV, but AV or AV+ at the very least must surely be on the cards now, and this country is changed for ever.

    If LD’s get top share- WHATEVER their or Labour seat tallies- then Clegg is PM backed by Labour under a deal to implement PR without an ‘if’ referendum- but a referendum between *proportional options* for new system.

    A part of me thinks they won’t even do that as the result would have been so stupid.

    Instead “A Great Reform bill” =

    * fixed term parliaments;
    * state funding of political parties;
    * No private donations over 100 pounds;
    * STV system.

    :-)

  36. Yozza,

    In case you missed my comment – I am quick to think that Labour are dropping to around 25% because past polling evidence has shown that Labour support above this is very fragile.

    I actually made a prediction in the Summer that Labour would be averaging around 25% until the GE. I was, of course, wrong. It has been surreal to me see Labour back in the low thirties. Nearly as surreal as seeing the Lib Dems now in the low thirties, I must admit.

  37. Eoin:

    You predicted the LD surge would subside very quickly I think? Given that it hasn’t and that, as someone else ponted out a few days ago there are only three ways it can move [and only one of them is down] how, and when, does this alter your calculations?

    Do you not now have a sense that this, at the very least, MAY no longer be comparable to previous elections?

    My feeling is that tactically this is very difficult for Cameron and that his party will be caught between two stools. Beyond that I haven’t a clue.

    But it’s all jolly good.

  38. Steve – if so, take a look at what it would do to the swingometer!!!!

  39. @Paul,

    See my post above….

    I will not be changing my prediction. Something this fickle cannot be taken seriously. Not yet anyway.

  40. The Lib Dems massive rise has left me shocked, and the more poll reports I read the more amazed I am. It all seems a bit surreal. At this point I wouldn’t be too surprised to see the Lib Dems up to the high 30s by the end of the week.

  41. Sue,

    Just did. OMG!

  42. I would like to see some proof that Clegg is ‘honest’ please.
    No evidence of that in his expenses and no evidence of it in his answers to the questions in Thursdays debate either.
    No evidence of it in his responses to his position on the activities of LibDem Peer Jenny Tongue.

    All told though, as the polls currently stand, Britain is heading for economic chaos. Do lovers of a hung parliament think that the inevitable cuts will be made easier, more magically painless, with two political parties fighting over them?

  43. Shirley Williams saying it comes down to a one member one vote decision of members with parliamentary reform an absolute minimum.

  44. Lib Dems will need to change their election slogan soon to just one word:

    BELIEVE

    There’ll be massive nervousness that these poll numbers won’t translate on election day but….

  45. Does anyone know which polls will filter respondents by who is registered to vote from now on? That’s still likely to be the heartbreaker for the Lib Dems – plenty of enthusiastic people who don’t have a polling card.

    I still reckon that anythnig over 25% of the vote, or anything over 80 seats, for the Liberals, and they’ll be delighted – or at least should be. The polls can only overestimate the Liberal vote – can’t they???

  46. Rob Sheffield——–get a grip!
    Clegg to be PM with 152 seats!!!——-I have little doubt
    when real votes are cast the Lib Dems will do well to achieve 75 seats——-what’s more I’ve known the Lib Dems from the inside!

  47. Gary, damn that’s good.

  48. @trevorsden – “I would like to see some proof that Clegg is ‘honest’ please.”

    It’s not that the public see hima s honest, they see him as not tweedledum or tweddledummer. They have had enough of the clown and his gang in number 10 and the other clown and his gang that want to be in number 10 and all of a sudden there is an option – and that option wants to hurt the banks so that makes him a hero.

  49. If it carries on we’ll see PM Clegg at No 10 ;-)

  50. I am pretty sceptical about the LibDem score exceeding 35%. I think the other parties are getting close to their cores, and mostly the LibDems have hoovered up undecideds, (previous) unlikely to votes, a little bit of small party and the bulk of the “soft” vote from each of the two main parties (can we say that anymore? I guess not.. each of the other main parties!!) I am not predicting anything though. I have no clue what will happen next.

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