YouGov’s daily poll has topline figures of CON 31%(-2), LAB 26%(-1), LDEM 34%(+3). YouGov seem to be bouncing back and forth between Lib Dem and Conservative leads, realistically the movement is probably all margin of error stuff and true position that the Conservatives and Lib Dems are neck and neck. It’s worth noting however that this is the highest Lib Dem score recorded so far by YouGov.

233 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 31/26/34”

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  1. Could anyone in the know post the twitter usernames of the people from the different pollsters please?

    If you’re overstocked on bickies can I have some?
    Forget the cocoa. I’m going to have a scotch I think.

  3. Neil A – I agree with what you’ve said about a number of people who like the look of the lib dens and Clegg despite the fact there natural political instincts go the other way. The idea that if they delve a little deeper they may go in another way may be true (and if so which way these floating voters go may well dictate the overall result) but a lot of policy specific polling has shown a lot of the public can’t match policies with parties. Anthony highlighted some results a while back that support this. How many of the general public really go to the polls knowing there chosen parties policies in depth?

  4. Let’s not get too excited, gents and ladies.

    The other 3 polls are extremely consistent. If ComRes shows a vast difference, it’s probably wrong, whichever way it tilts.

  5. politicshomeuk

    ComRes/ITV: Con 35%(+3), Lab 26% (-2), Lib Dem 26% (-2)
    3 minutes ago via API

  6. rumours of a Mori poll out now showing 39%

    that must be made up!

  7. Don’t Crash Now UKPR!!!!!!!!!!!

  8. @ Dan
    Thank you for enlightening me about modern TV veiwing habits (should have realised, but I don’t have buttons) – it’s that just a minority of people I spoke to actually stayed with it for 90 mins

    More than happy if I’m wrong. Would love it if every voter gained increased understanding this thursday!

  9. Sky news website reports

  10. I put these numbers in the elctoral calculus and it came out tory 226, labour 217, libdem 174. Even more interesting was who was going to lose their seats including: Jack Straw, Clare Short, Oliver Letwin, Liam Fox and David Davis!

  11. Andrew: “On corruption – we have a mention of Italy! The corrupt politicians are of course desperately working to introduce a system to their benefit over there. It’s basically a two-party system with lots of FPTP involved. That’s not a coincidence you know!”

    A little more history. Until the early 1990s Italy had PR and governments formed by horsetrading between the same group of parties. PR was abandoned in the hope of creating a fresh start.

    It didn’t. Obviously!!

    Corruption scandals are found in all systems. Didn’t Chancellor Kohl have some problems? And Israel has the most perfect PR system.

    Personally, I’d bring in three year terms – never let them be too far from the judgement of the electorate.

  12. Evening all.

    ComRes has 35/26/26 this evening.

  13. Paul
    aww I’m sorry you feel uninvited — oh! that’s one of my favourite songs ;-)

    Anyway, please don’t feel offended -we can have a cyber party on May 7th ;-)

  14. Blimey!

    I’ve just put all the lastest polls into my new computer model and the elves [who are just quietly sittin’ on toadstools and not even standing] are now in the lead.

    Who’d ov thunk it?

  15. 35/26/26??????

    Um sorry, so where is the “humdinger”?

  16. Tories back to 35%

    They will be 38% before Thurs…

    It is time for Labour strategists to decide…

    back Clegg or call their flock home to spring pastures

  17. 35/26/26, wow, great poll for the Tories.

    Just noticed the betfair odds have lengthened again on a Labour seat majority, so some people are clearly taking note.

  18. Not a humdinger after all.
    And it looks like Eoin is on track with his scenario of wobbly libs eventually returning to their respective parties.

  19. It’s only one poll and probably an outlier but…….Thank goodness for that in what has been a poor week really..!!!

  20. Caution – Comres’ data is one day out of the Populus and the YouGov poll…

    Perhaps it is out of date?

    There has been a reaction against DC’s negative tactics

  21. Humdinger??????????? Great marketing

  22. There are rumours flying around on Twitter of an Ipsos Mori poll due tomorrow. Does anyone know if that’s the case?

    The figures of Lib dems on 39, Cons 29 and Lab 23 seem astonishing !

  23. Watch the Murdoch press lead on ComRes tomorrow, with The Sun publishing its YouGov poll on a microdot, and offering the chance to order a microdot reader for $199.99, for delivery when the Icelandic volcano has stopped belching, or after 6 May, whichever is later.

  24. I conventional times I would be 100% sure this poll is a rogue. But after the events of the past week I would never say that about any poll. When I read “LibDem 30% (+12)”, and it turns out to be accurate, that makes me very hesitant to call anything a rogue….

  25. As a Labour supporter I must admit this is the first poll I am not happy with. It almost certainly is a bit of an outlier but I could accept Labour at 26 – 29 if the Liberals were slightly higher. This gives the Tories 291 seats. Too close for comfort.

  26. Don’t know how the UNS will work in reality but this is what it says:-

    Conservative 291 seats (+93)
    Labour 245 seats (-111)
    Liberal Democrats 83 seats (+21)
    Others 13 seats (+1)
    Northern Ireland 18 seats (nc)

    Hung Parliament, Conservatives 35 seats short

  27. so let me start a bit of a conspiracy here… did the ComRes rumor (now confirmed figures) start after YouGov got published?

  28. Very wise words Neil A…..

  29. The latest YouGov poll added this question: “How would you vote on May 6 if you thought the Liberal Democrats had a significant chance of winning the election”.

    The responses: Lib Dem 49%, Conservative 25%, Labour 19%.

    On the assumption of uniform national swing, there would be 548 Lib Dem MPs, 41 Labour MPs and just 25 Tories.

    See also Peter Kellner’s analysis of the poll question and the underlying indications that this is the preferred outcome.

  30. “There are rumours flying around on Twitter of an Ipsos Mori poll due tomorrow. Does anyone know if that’s the case?

    The figures of Lib dems on 39, Cons 29 and Lab 23 seem astonishing !”

    That looks even more odd than ComRes. Would love it too be true though!

    Am worried though it might be Tories 39 Lib Dem 29 and Labour 23. One means Cameron on the way to No 10 – the other heralds a possible Lib Dem win.

  31. Where on earth is all this sillyness coming from ?

    do people seriously think the tories after a bad week are now suddenly on 39 ?

    and the liberals, after a clear postive showing have dropped back again ?

    come on guys

    with respect if these two polls do show a sudden tory upsurge then they are clearly going totally against the grain

    and you have to question their validity

    not just that they are a bit ” off “

  32. Shn @ Jack Jones

    “It’s certainly a very optimistic outlook that ……SNP will win 20 seats…”

    I think the 20 seats was a target. I’d expect 10 in total, and a big increase in share of the poll.

    That estimate allows for at least one “surprise” gain on a larger than average swing which will be no surprise at all to local people and there are at least 14 seats where that is possible.

    The improvement in the LibDems position will make little difference as most of their seats were quite safe, and the “third” party advance is split with the SNP and the Greens, but in two seats where the LibDems are a close challenger to Labour, they now look like winning both.

    Having said that, the excess of Lab over Con will still be greater than 30, so if Cons are denied their expected return to government by 30+ Scottish Labour MP’s voting on English matters, expect the nationalists to point this out to them at every opportunity.

  33. Eoin, Rob.. Oh well it just an idea, none of us can really predict this one.
    It’s just I sense a renewed passion and interest in politics, looking at policies, feeling positive about society, facilitated by Facebook, and Twitter, and people turning against and despising what the papers say. I like it…

    And this latest UGove poll.. looks good for Labour, but there have been other polls which have been encouraging for the Libs and Cons.

    There is one thing certian, everyone on this site are experiencing big swings.. of emotion! I wonder what tonight will bring.

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