There are at least four new polls out tonight – YouGov, Populus, Angus Reid and ComRes. Two have appeared already. Populus in the Times were one of the few pollsters not to have done a post debate poll yet, their first since the debate has topline figures of CON 32%(-4), LAB 28%(-5), LDEM 31%(+10). The poll was conducted yesterday and today.

The second is Angus Reid for PoliticalBetting. Their topline figures with changes since yesterday are CON 32%(nc), LAB 23%(-1), LDEM 33%(+1). I don’t have fieldwork dates, but given their last poll was yesterday I can only assume it was yesterday and today. No significant change there from yesterday, but the trend is in the Lib Dem direction.

More later – Andrew Hawkins of ComRes has said their poll tonight is a “humdinger”


93 Responses to “New Populus and Angus Reid polls”

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  1. Rob A – I understand ComRes will be out at 10pm.

  2. @ RogerH

    Surely a jump back to a 9-point lead from 4 is newsworthy and vaguely humdingery (if barely believable) :o)

  3. 10!!! 10pm!!! NOOOOOOOOOO

  4. I’d cry Rob but you’d be justified to call it that…!!

  5. I’d be amazed if the Tories ever dip below 30%, let alone slump to 26%.

  6. Is ComRes timing its announcement to hit the 10 O’Clock News? It was going to be 8pm?

  7. i could cope with being on 26 if the Tories were too ;)

  8. Think the new you gov has the ;libs on 34, con 31, lab 26…
    if this is right?

  9. You Gov

    LD 34 Con 31 Lab 36

    WOW

  10. Yougov on tory diary website
    lib dem- 34
    con-31
    lab-26

  11. I thought YG was supposed to be out at 20:00 ?

  12. seriously though, someone tell me, if ComRes are basing anything humdingery on an extra 500 answers, how can it possibly be accurate of anything. (Yes, even if it DOES have Lab in the lead….)

  13. ooops Lab 26

    its on Politics Home now

  14. There are lots of other Com Res rumours of equal credence.

    Fraser Nelson of the Spectator is saying that it will show Labour in the lead, which would be a humdinger. I can’t quite understand why he would be ignoring rumours of a large Tory majority.

    However given the trend my own rumour would be that it shows a clear LIb-Dem lead. (BTW I am not a supporter).

    So plenty of rumours to discuss with three different poll leaders.

  15. Yozza – shifting to the centre doesn’t seem to have helped the Tories much.

    I agree that shifting to the right would also be a mistake, but I think they should have stayed where they were a few years ago instead of moving.

  16. YouGov/TheSun:

    Lib Dems 34% (+3),
    Con 31% (-2),
    Lab 26% (-1)

    politicshome and sun website

  17. @Paul,

    I like th enew paul :) please let him continue….

    My prediction is and will remain 36/34….

    My biggest predicition for this week is that the Tories will retunr to 38* by Thursday @8pm.

    If and whn my 36/34 materialises- I expect an above average turnout….

    LAbour largest party c.300 seats….

    I think some cobbled together deal with nationalists might just get them there…

    In all my time posting I have warned that a Lib-Lab pact is not a foregone conclusion

    utterly consistent :) :)

  18. Can someone please release this Comres poll Now!!

    I’m hogging the computer so much, that i fear my family will lynch me soon !!! lol

  19. @Neal & Daniel
    Which of you is right? Double-check please!

  20. Look back at political history. Whenever there is there is a three horse race and two of the parties are centre left the tories always win.
    I dont want the tories to win but contrary to the speculation on here I would say that if the Liberal vote continues to hold at 25% partially at Labour’s expense, it is inevitable that the tories will have a majority.
    Thus the Liberals shoot themselves in the foot by their own success.

  21. YG poll on electoral calculus

    CON 236
    LAB 230
    LIB 152
    NAT 11
    MIN 3

    Lib Dems have most votes by 2%:

    Clegg is PM with Labour support (382 seat coalition)

  22. 10pm?!

    Now that is not on! Keeping us on the ropes like that! The cat is out of the bag though and going back to the two polls being discussed, it seems that both show a greater loss for Labour.

    For once in ARs time in polling, there isnt a Tory lead. 32% is low for them and I mean LOW. But 23% for Labour?

    Man the lifeboats :)

  23. Yozza,

    You are right about not relying too heavily one or two polls. Its just that I have been expecting Labour’s support to drop like a brick for months.

    The past polls have demonstrated that Labour’s support above 25% is very fragile and I have been amazed not see their support toppling over to around this figure before now.

  24. Good Lord – The yougov figures IF true would still have Lab largest party!!! 228 246 143

  25. Just thinking of possible ‘humdingers’…. 30/30/30?!

  26. NEW THREAD- YG numbers confirmed !

  27. @ Sue

    Democracy in action? The least popular party gets most seats. I’m thinking bananas and republics….

  28. For Comres to be a humdinger it has to be Lib Dems in lead with 35%+.

  29. @Sue Marsch “Good Lord – The yougov figures IF true would still have Lab largest party!!! 228 246 143”

    That is “on paper” – however, at that sort of poll figure Labour face meltdown, especially if LDs and Cons are still close.

  30. YouGov Poll
    Con 31%
    Lab 26 %
    LibDem 34%

  31. @Tony Dean

    “That is “on paper” – however, at that sort of poll figure Labour face meltdown, especially if LDs and Cons are still close.”

    Keep em coming ha ha ha

    It does not matter- these polls are now saying that the electoral system will change and we’ll never have a single party government ever again.

    If only that could have happened in the 1980’s ;-)

  32. As I understand it ComRes is a rolling poll so it would be v hard to imagine LibDems or Lab to be in the lead, the change would just have to be massive. Most likely is the Tories leading. I am beginning to fear for Labour

  33. @Cliff

    ‘There’s no point gunning for the soft left of centre vote when they now have two different left of centre parties to compete with now that the LDs look like being a serious force.’

    Don’t quite follow the logic. If you are in a battle for the centre gound with two parties, neither of which has much to attract elements on your right, why shift to the right? All that will do is vacate part of that centre to be fill by either of Lab or LibDem. You are probably going to get the right wing votes anyway. What you need to do is sneak as much as you can of your opponents territory/votes, without giving up any of your own to your opponents. That is what Blair did by moving Lab from left centre towards the right.

  34. 3 – 4% increase for Lib Dems on the Yougov/AR polls with Labour dropping 3% from Yougov and Cons dropping 1% after Thursday’s debate?

    That would see Lib Dems on 37% as largest party with 218 seats, Cons on 30% with 205 seats, Lab in 3rd with 195 seats.

  35. @Rob Sheffield
    Yes – I think pure FPTP is doomed….but we may get a halfway house and I don’t necessarily mean AV! I think Jenkins+ will be resurrected, do you?

  36. Using YouGov + Scotland (post debate) + YG Wales:

    Lab: 243
    Con 221
    L D 154
    Oth 32

  37. @Rob A
    Agree, and that would tally with YouGov. A ComRes of LD 36, Con 26, Lab 26 would simply make sense.

  38. Anthony
    What credence should we give to “rolling polls” in a fast moving and revolutionary situation? Do ComRes conduct “rolling polls” rather than “snapshots” as suggested by other posts here?

  39. @sue marsh – Fill me in please? what do you mean 500 extra answers? a total poll of 500? if thats true we can pretty much discount I would say…

  40. Just think.

    Tomorrow, we will be HALF WAY through the campaign !

  41. I can see Lab sinking to 22% – 25% territory on polling day, mainly because social change has eroded the core Lab working class vote and left leaning professionals have woken up to their authoritarianism. I can’t see the Tories scoring below 30%. The thing that has changed politics (even if it is short lived) is the significant increase in Lib Dem support. As a generalisation, historically the Libs (and then Lib Dems) have always improved their poll ratings during election campaigns. The added boost has been the debate which suddenly makes them not only a credible party BUT ALSO a credible potential government. However, I suspect that in many areas (where their organisation is weak) they will not capitalise on the poll support.

  42. @FrankG

    I’m not suggesting they do this on a national basis. They need to shore up their LD marginals in the South on a constituancy basis. They have alienated a lot of their core voters with the centre sell who are ambivalent at best with Cameron.

    They need to attack the LDs for their perceived “turn off” policies like the mansion tax, europe, immigration and being soft on crime.

  43. Except that the Mansion tax only hits houses valued at £2m + so it will not affect the majority, the position on Europe is nicely finessed – referendum on the Euro and potentially on continued EU membership; I even think that immigration and crime policies are saleable. In fact BBC Radio 4 did a rather good job on that on the 5pm programme this afternoon.

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