Final poll I know of tonight is YouGov’s daily poll in the Sun. Their topline figures are CON 33(+1), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 31%(-2). A slight drop in Lib Dem support, but really no significant change from yesterday’s figures, and YouGov have still got the Tories and Lib Dems within 2 points of each other, they are pretty much neck-and-neck.

UPDATE: Nothing in particular to do with YouGov, but an interesting point someone made in the comments. One of the important questions we are considering is how long the Lib Dem boost will last and to what degree it will have faded by the time we reach polling day. Someone has reminded me in the comments that a significant proportion of people have postal votes now, so some people will be starting to vote comparatively soon.


822 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 33/27/31”

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  1. @Interesting: AR usually show high VI figures for BNP & UKIP. I don’t know if that’s the case this time, but that’s their rep.

  2. @ Rob Sheffield

    If the Tories have 79 seats more than any other party they have the biggest mandate by a mile under the FPTP system.

    it would create a constitutional crisis if they are in opposition and the Lib Dems propped up a Labour Government which had clearly lost the election.

  3. R in S

    “= Lib-Lab coalition with 348 seats: Clegg is PM”

    I feel sick now, must have what Sue has got….

  4. @Rob

    How on earth do you arrive at a Lib/Lab government if the Conservatives have the most seats AND poll the highest ‘Popular’ vote – I can’t quite see where you are coming from!

    DC will have every right to be PM and try to govern either by Minority or seek support!

    :o

  5. Lib Dems IN THE LEAD? What is going on. The lib dems booked a whole train carriage today. Tomorrow, they’ll just float.

  6. You Gov conditional oll that Sun would not print

    ““How would you vote if you thought the Liberal
    Democrats had a significant chance of winning..?” (YouGov – April 19 2010)”

    LD = 49%
    Con= 25%
    Lab= 19%

    Seat Totals are:

    Lib Dems = 565
    Conservatives = 22
    Labour = 36
    Nationalists = 6
    Others = 3

    Its clear this is a “F*uck the both of you” election narrative now !!!!

  7. Oh my! Labour in front on Comres (possibly), and on just 23 on ARS. Someone’s methodology is seriously flawed.

    Interesting that SkyNews are only using YG,ICM, Comres, Populus and Mori for their polling news, is it not?

  8. @ Gary

    “If the Labour vote collapses then it suddenly becomes a lot easier for the Lib Dems to come through the middle – especially of they pick up the ’stop the Tories at any cost’ vote.”

    Indeed. Labour on 23, Lib Dems on 35 and Cons on 32 sees Lib Dems become 2nd party in seat terms

    264 Cons, 173 Lab and 183 Lib Dems

    Once Lib dems get past around 35% with Lab still at 23% they start taking a lot more seats from Tories, and get into the 200 seats sort of range.

    at 37% for Lib Dems, 23% Labour, and 30% Cons the Lib Dems are largest party in hung parliament (237 seats compared to 215 Cons, and 166 Lab)

    After 38% anything could happen.

  9. @James Kelly

    I think so too. At least he does not have anything good to say about Labour. Still as long as FPTP is there……

  10. These are average leads given to the blues by the respective pollsters…. It is based on 5 years of polling information.

    AR 13.7
    ComRes 11.6
    Harris 9.4
    Opinium 9.4
    BPIX 8.6
    YG 8
    ICM 6.5
    Populus 5.3
    TNS 5
    IPSOS-MORI 4.8

    As you can see from the above list. Angus Reid ALWAYS give blue the highest lead.

  11. From the sky news site….

    ” Mr Brown told Radio One’s Newsbeat programme that people may be able to travel to Madrid as a “hub” as it has been unaffected by the volcanic ash affecting flights across Europe.

    He said that people stuck in Asia, Africa and America could land in the Spanish capital before being taken back to the UK in coaches laid on by the Government.

    “We’re putting on coaches from Madrid,” he said. “There’s 100 already there in Madrid to do it.”

    But as thousands of delayed travellers arrived in the city, there was no sign of the promised coaches.

    ————————————————————————–

    Misquoted….or just a slip up…Could be costly but I wouldn’t think so.

  12. @Mark

    “If the Tories have 79 seats more than any other party they have the biggest mandate by a mile under the FPTP system.”

    BUT NC and GB can organise a majority government- Brown as existing PM tells Queen that NC can do it and Clegg goes to the Palace. Brown has first dibs in nany hung parliament EVEN if Labour are third in seat totals.

    As LD’s are TOP of the vote they can choose whichever junior partner they want.

    It all constituitonal.

    I don’t think a lot of Tory posters are really aware of what the LD surge may well mean…….

  13. Gary
    Surely the debates are all that matter now?

    Any minor movement in the polls could be completely blown away by another stellar performance from Clegg or another dismal performance by Cameron.
    ******************************************************

    hmm, I would describe the debate as one competant performance (Clegg), one disappointment (Cameron) and one heavily scripted (Brown). Nothing more, nothing less.

    Next debate is more important than people think, as it will seal the deal for postal voting.

  14. R in S..

    “““How would you vote if you thought the Liberal
    Democrats had a significant chance of winning..?” (YouGov – April 19 2010)”

    Amongst all those words one stands out… and it’s one of the smallest….but also means the most..

    Can you see what I mean ? IMHO it wil also be the reason why LD’s will flatter to deceive again.

  15. Anymore rumours on that ComRes poll..?

  16. #Richard O

    I suppose the point I was making is that there is much more potential for poll movement from the remaining two debates than from anything else that arises elsewhere on the campaign.

    However, not sure I agree about the next debate – I think the last debate will be more important as its on the Beeb and more people will watch.

    In terms of impact overall it will probably be the first one that ends up having had the greatest impact on the result.

  17. Populus for The Times:
    Con 32% (-4%),
    LD 31% (+10%),
    Lab 28% (-5%)

  18. Populus shows Labour as largest party again.

  19. Poulus poll on Electoral Calculus

    CON 238
    LAB 268
    LIB 112
    NAT 11
    MIN 3

    LAB short 58 of majority

  20. @ Rob Sheffield

    Ed Davey told Andrew Neil on Straight Talk that the Lib Dems would only talk to the party with the largest mandate in the event of a hung parliament.

    It isn’t clear whether they mean seats or share but from the AR poll it’s the Tories in either case.

    If Labour supporters are thinking the Lib Dems will do them a favour to keep them in Government I think they will be disappointed.

    @ Richard O

    As things stand this Thursday’s debate is only being shown live on the two news channels, so the audience will be nowhere near that for last week’s debate, meaning much less impact.

  21. Rob Sheffield

    Do you have the fieldwork dates please?

  22. @ Sue Marsh

    Apology accepted. You weren’t to know.

    In the whole of my 64+ years I have only ever claimed 2 weeks of unemployment benefit anywhere. I am not a ‘whinging pom’ type of ex pat, just one that cares passionately about the UK.

  23. 4 point Con/Lab lead with Populus, Lib Dems still strong. What were the dates?

  24. Absolutely awesome news to hear that Labour are on top in tonights Comres poll.

  25. EOIN – PLEASE stop giving Tory HQ policy. Just watched them lurch right on benefits and am now feeling sicker than ever. Don’t even care what it does to the polls, just sickening.

  26. @Sue Marsh: The Times online says the Populus poll was last night & this morning. Populus & AR suggest no fading yet of the LibDem surge.

  27. Times Online:

    The poll, undertaken yesterday evening and this morning, shows that backing for Nick Clegg’s party has jumped to 31 per cent, with Labour down five points at 28 per cent, and the Conservatives down four at 32 per cent.

  28. @Mark

    (1) Thats before the result;

    2) The ‘largest mandate’ in this AR poll is….The LIB DEMS with 33% of the vote !!

    Because of (2) they can choose whoever they want and I repeat GB can ask the Lib Dems to form a coalition and as part of that can step aside for Clegg- who as leader with the most votes has the peoples mandate.

    From the centre/ centre left point of view it is a total no-brainer.

    But since then we have had another poll that gives Labour the most seats ;-)

    Oh this is fun :-)

  29. Sunbeam – it’s an unlikely rumour, please stop it, I am seconds from being very ill ;)

  30. Why so sickening Sue..?

  31. Well known names at some risk now (who may not have been last week) in my view:

    Phil Woolas (Oldham East)
    Liam Fox (Somerset North)
    Nicholas Soames (Sussex Mid)
    David Davis (Haltemprice)
    Oliver Letwin (Dorset West)

  32. Personal reasons Polly – One’s I can’t discuss here

  33. Rumour on political betting that Tories are actually leading comres. Tories 35, Ld and Lab 26 a piece. Wheelan surposed to have tweeted about lib dem bubble bursted and nelson suposed to have said that early comment was wrong and that their is a god.

  34. @Sue
    Try not to respond. :-) Suffice to say I totally agree with you. Hope you read my earlier post.

  35. Stop it Dazza, I’m excited now and I don’t know who to believe ….Grrr

    :-)

  36. @ Spencer

    It cuts both ways. Also in danger are:

    Jack Straw (Blackburn)
    Alistair Darling (Edinburgh SW)
    Charles Clarke (Norwich South)
    Ben Bradshaw (Exeter)

  37. I expect the ‘vote Clegg, get Brown’ rhetoric will have had some success over the last 2 days.
    Together with news reports showing that the latest polls could lead to Labour being the largest party.

    So, unfortunately, I would expect to see an increasing Tory lead with ComRes and You Gov tonight.

    My guess for both would be

    Con – 35%
    Lab – 28%
    Lib Dem – 29%

  38. oldnat
    Modern parties campaign as much on competence than policy, so this could be a very bad mistake, instead of being a good move.

    Absolutely. As you know, I’m currently in Andalusia where there are quite a few strandees here during the extremely cheap “slack” season between Easter and Whitsun. Anyone who gets to Madrid to find the buses are not there will be most unlikely to think kindly of Labour on 6 May – if they make it back by then, of course. If they do, they’ll be telling their family, friends and neighbours how they were conned. The “personal” nature of such feelings will make it believed, too.

  39. @Dazz

    “Rumour on political betting that Tories are actually leading comres. Tories 35, Ld and Lab 26 a piece. Wheelan surposed to have tweeted about lib dem bubble bursted and nelson suposed to have said that early comment was wrong and that their is a god.”

    Fraser nelson thanking God for *299* seats !!

  40. Sorry Sue..No offence or upset meant… :-(

  41. A 3-day rolling poll from Comres would have to have a really freaky 3rd day to produce a massive shift from the poll produced yesterday. IMHO Labour would have to get 40% on day 3 to get into the lead. I was actually expecting Brown’s generalship of the ash problem to give him a bit of a boost, but today’s news sounds negative for him.

  42. the next debate is on Sky News, therefore the viewing figures will be nothing like the first debate.I’m not sure how much influence it will have on the postal votes.

  43. Rather 299 Tory seats than 299 Labour ones… ;)

  44. @Sue,

    The more the go right the more Clegg is tied into a deal with Labour.

    My mum has a saying…..

    give a man enough rope……

  45. @ Mark

    I think you are trying to read a partisanship into my post which wasn’t intended (or present). I already think Clarke is finished.

    There is some evidence that Scotland is seeing less swing – I think Darling will be safe. I’d be surprised if Exeter was lost to Labour (some tactical voting should be enough for him to cling on), and I think Straw will probably have enough capital in Blackburn to be reasonably comfortable.

  46. It’s not the actual debate Yozza so much as how it’s spun, how the media portray it.

  47. Totally agree Barnaby…

  48. I think a lot of Labour members wouldn’t mind Clarke getting the boot in Norwich.

  49. @Neil A

    “Rather 299 Tory seats than 299 Labour ones… ;)”

    Oh yes!

    Its great to see the Tories on here- as recently as last Tuesday predicting working majorities- now so pleased at one poll that might make them the largest party ;-)

  50. Re Comres poll tonight

    ‘Rumour’ has it:

    Con 35
    Lab 26
    Lib 26

    The Spectator have ‘gone back’ on suggesting a labour lead

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