Final poll I know of tonight is YouGov’s daily poll in the Sun. Their topline figures are CON 33(+1), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 31%(-2). A slight drop in Lib Dem support, but really no significant change from yesterday’s figures, and YouGov have still got the Tories and Lib Dems within 2 points of each other, they are pretty much neck-and-neck.

UPDATE: Nothing in particular to do with YouGov, but an interesting point someone made in the comments. One of the important questions we are considering is how long the Lib Dem boost will last and to what degree it will have faded by the time we reach polling day. Someone has reminded me in the comments that a significant proportion of people have postal votes now, so some people will be starting to vote comparatively soon.


822 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 33/27/31”

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  1. My YG prediction for tonight if Rosie and Andrew permit me to make one?

    Blue 34
    Red 29
    Yellow 29

  2. I was looking at the BBC Have Your Say comments (not wise, I know, but it’s times like this that Nick Robinson’s Westminister village parochialism becomes usefully informative) which struck me in one thing: no-one knows where to place the Lib Dems.

    Are they more left-wing than Labour? Are they right-wing? Are they left-wing, but less left-wing than Labour? Are they centrists?

    (Even if it was the case that I like nothing else about them, I welcome any party that helps to break down the worthless left-right distinction.)

    It would be fascinating to see a poll on where people “place” the Lib Dems, firstly on a traditional left-right spectrum, then a 2-dimensional spectrum (social authoritarian/libertarian and economic authoritarian/libertarian) and then a 3-dimensional spectrum (” + political authoritarian/libertarian).

  3. RE ComRes Comments:

    Maybe the Monster Raving Loony Party has leapt into the lead!

    Now that would be a change :)

  4. @Eoin, etc.

    I’ve never really thought of myself as core vote material, but I suppose I proabably am really.

    My remark about “working” was only partly in jest, and (in my view at least) not born from prejudice.

    Through my work I have met many, many poor people with jobs who would have been better off on benefits. Especially working men with non-working wives (who would hardly benefit from the LibDem’s income tax changes).

  5. Exclusive>ComRes poll to show Clegg bubble burst?

    This is what Whelan is saying on twitter.

  6. See y’all later for ComRes and YouGov lovelyness.

    Have fun.

  7. I did wonder if the ‘humdinger’ of a poll had any connection with the emergence of the tory ‘core strategy’ poster. isn’t that what you do when the skids are under you?

    I would urge caution though – the tweet merely said it was a humdinger – no mention of Labour leads, or anything else. Perhaps Cameron is 15% clear again?

    ‘With one bound our hero broke free……’

  8. @Bill Patrick

    Its a fair point Bill.

    They have outmaneuvred the Tories on the tax cutting agenda and Labour on Education, Trident and the war.

    I think, more than anything, they have outmaneuvred both parties as a vehicle for ‘fair change’ – whatever that means.

  9. See you later Mitz – don’t be late back ;-)

  10. Bad publicity for GB on the news currently – replaying his statement that ‘100 coaches are already in Madrid’ when they haven’t even left the UK yet !
    Lots of interviews with angry travellers – could be reflected in the polls tomorrow ?

    Why did he make that statement ??

  11. Surbiton – ah. If Whelan is talking about the Lib Dems rather than Labour, I have a horrible feeling the Tories must be well in the lead.

  12. Eoin

    According to the Guardian “Sinn Féin pulls candidate from South Belfast seat in attempt to form pact with SDLP”

    Any views?

  13. James Lyon now tweeting that it is just a duff rumour it seems. False alarm?

  14. @Neil A,

    I could not take umbrage with you if I tried. We have strong notions on benefits usually they have something to do with family circumstances. Eg. heavy tax burden, sister single mum, you know someone who pulls a sicky, or knows someone who is genuinely sick.

  15. @frasernels is now saying Comres rumours untrue.

    Wouldn’t surprise me if Lib Dems were down a couple of points, it’s been wall to wall volcanoe coverage over the past 2 days.

  16. So Labour aren’t in the lead, Whelan says Clegg’s bubble has burst, and yet we’re still left with a ‘sensational’ poll. What’s left but a Tory surge? It might be the likes of me that needs the Navy ship.

  17. @ ASH

    Yep, that’s what I thought – twitter hacked or mis-interpreted. I still like to hear the rumours though :-)

  18. @Oldnat,

    They pulled Alex out to give SDLP a clear run at it….

    Cameron has piled a lot of money and a very pretty candidate into that seat…

    the SDLP would resist a formal pact, however, but they will be veru grateful indeed.

    It might do a bit to ease local tensions since the Stoop Down Low Party and the Shinners do not really see eye to eye. Bottom line, there’ll be no pact.

  19. Howard – Re FrankG – “A liitle harsh from you Sue”

    Really Howard? You are an ex-pat who tries to assess the UK situation as fairly as he can. I put up with unwarranted criticism of GB from those who live here – it is their experience. Excuse me if I draw the line at those who do not.

  20. Ian Kemp
    ‘100 coaches are already in Madrid’ … Why did he make that statement ??

    Saw that on Sky, but not on the BBC yet. Breathtakingly inept but true as Sky are showing a clip of it being said.

    If it makes the ITV and C4 News it could spark some interesting questions to the viceroy tonight on the STV Scotland “debate” tonight. For those without sat access, it will be live debate live from 20:00 GMT, with – unusually for STV – no IP apartheid for expats.

  21. I wouldn’t get excited with one Comres poll. the polls since the last debate are consistent. There is obvious more upside in the Lib Dem as the You Gove survey pointed towards thank you “interesting”.
    The Conservative high Mark is a smidgeon over 40% and nobody thinks they can re-trace. Labour’s most recent high mark is 33% difficult to re-trace. It is unlikely that the Lib Dems will retrace shed down to below 25%.
    The TV reality show we get for the next 2 Thursdays will be disappropriate in shaping the polling day result.

  22. Angus Reid poll on Political Betting:

    Con 32
    Lib Dems 33
    Lab 23

  23. @Interesting,

    interesting indeed. It normally takes old angus an age to produce these polls. I am happy to see others are falling though.

  24. Interesting..

    How would that break down in seats given the 9 point Con Lab gap ?

  25. Interesting
    Angus Reid poll on Political Betting

    Thanks for the heads-up. What a shock that Mike S put YouGov’s 49/25/19 first!

  26. Angus Reid Poll:

    Con 32%
    LibDem 33%
    Lab 23 %

  27. Rumour on Twitter that ComRes is – Con 35%, Lab 26%, Lib Dem 26%. If so, clearly good for the Tories, but a MOE increase of 3% is supposed to ‘blow our socks off’? Blah.

  28. All,

    I can’t be help to think that Alex Salmonds comments today that a hung parliament is good for him and the SNP, will only benefit the Conservatives.

    Any thoughts?

    rich

  29. FrankG – I am ashamed. Wish I’d read your follow up post before I responded to Howard.

  30. Labour on 23% with A/R.

    Are Labour going to continue spinning polls like this in their favour by saying the Tories can’t win because of the LD surge?

    That seemed to be the line they were taking a few days ago.

  31. @Eoin, absolutely.

    @Polly Ticks without swings entered its 270 Cons, 191 Lab, 157 Lib Dems on Electoral Calculus

  32. Angus Reid figures confirmed on TORY conservative home web site

    33 LD
    32 Con
    23 Lab

  33. Latest Betfair view and change from yesterday.

    Most Seats

    Cons 1/3 (slightly shortened)
    Labour 4.2/1 (no change)
    Lib Dems 28/1 (no change)

    Overall Majority

    Hung Parliament 3/5 (no change)
    Cons 1.8/1 (no change)
    Labour 29/1 (lengthened slightly from 28/1)
    Lib Dems or other 65/1 (no change)

    rich o

  34. “Mayhem in Madrid” according to ITV News headlines. Cannot be good for Mr ‘100 buses’ Brown unless completely forgotten by some worse disaster by Thursday.

  35. Not to be a Lab apologist but if the quote in question is the clip on SKY, GB said that “we will have coaches leaving from Madrid”. An English professor would be handy here, but WILL to me implies the furtur and not a present state of facts.

  36. “@Polly Ticks without swings entered its 270 Cons, 191 Lab, 157 Lib Dems on Electoral Calculus”

    Getting closer to numbers I can live with. AR always has to be taken with a pinch of salt though. Their discrepancy with other pollsters has narrowed sharply in recent months but their low Labour scores really stand out from the pack.

  37. Austin K..

    “Angus Reid figures confirmed on TORY conservative home web site.”

    Wow, that’s twice as bad as it’s a TORY and a conservative website. Glad you pointed it out though…

    ;-)

  38. Brownedov

    The “100 buses IN Madrid” turns out to 50 buses being gathered in Dover tonight.

    Modern parties campaign as much on competence than policy, so this could be a very bad mistake, instead of being a good move.

    Much better to contract a ferry as the Scottish Government has done to bring back those stranded in Bergen.

  39. 35/26/26 still makes a very hung parliament

  40. XIBY..

    You don’t have to apologise to be a Labour apologist. It’s ok……it’s the clutching at straws that you need to apologise for …. ;-)

    @ Interesting…Thanks.

  41. If the Labour vote collapses then it suddenly becomes a lot easier for the Lib Dems to come through the middle – especially of they pick up the ‘stop the Tories at any cost’ vote.

  42. Catching up with the thread has made me feel sick – about 4 times and for different reasons.

  43. Angus Reid generally has Tory & LibDem roughly the same as other polls (LibDem maybe 1% high), but Labour lower than other polls. If YG shows an entirely different trends, it will be very hard to reconcile with AR.

    BTW whether it’s fair or not, I can see Labour suffering from the Madrid foul-up. The words p***-up & brewery are likely to get an airing.

  44. hehe nice smack Polly. I will take it with grace (smiley)

  45. Isn’t it all a moot point? I heard a Brittany Ferries spokesman say their ships are only half booked. Is it beyond the werewithal of our embassies and consulates to arrange coach travel for Britons across Europe to get to Santander, Roscoff, Cherbourg, Boulogne and Calais? No need to send them from the UK (with tanks full of £1.20 a litre diesel), just hire them from local operators.

  46. Angus Reid poll on Political Betting:

    Con 32
    Lib Dems 33
    Lab 23

    = Lib-Lab coalition with 348 seats: Clegg is PM

  47. @ Neil A

    “Getting closer to numbers I can live with. AR always has to be taken with a pinch of salt though. Their discrepancy with other pollsters has narrowed sharply in recent months but their low Labour scores really stand out from the pack.”

    The “others” figures are pretty high as well I think they’re either overestimating them, or people they’re polling are having some fun with them?

  48. Sue Marsh
    Catching up with the thread has made me feel sick – about 4 times and for different reasons.
    ******************************************************

    thats how I have felt for the last few days!, it’s starting to clear up today. :-)

  49. Neil A

    Heaven forfend!

    We must have British coaches for British tourists! (local coaches will smell of garlic). :-)

  50. Surely the debates are all that matter now?

    Any minor movement in the polls could be completely blown away by another stellar performance from Clegg or another dismal performance by Cameron.

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