Final poll I know of tonight is YouGov’s daily poll in the Sun. Their topline figures are CON 33(+1), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 31%(-2). A slight drop in Lib Dem support, but really no significant change from yesterday’s figures, and YouGov have still got the Tories and Lib Dems within 2 points of each other, they are pretty much neck-and-neck.

UPDATE: Nothing in particular to do with YouGov, but an interesting point someone made in the comments. One of the important questions we are considering is how long the Lib Dem boost will last and to what degree it will have faded by the time we reach polling day. Someone has reminded me in the comments that a significant proportion of people have postal votes now, so some people will be starting to vote comparatively soon.


822 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 33/27/31”

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  1. P.Ticks:[7.00 pm]

    I give up: was the significant little word: “win” ?

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  2. Yes Paul, because the word win was one of the short words in there. Excellent.

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  3. Rumour, ComRes, Labour in front? Where’s the rumour coming from? (Here’s hoping !!)

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  4. @Rob,

    Touche mate! And how are your Labour majority predictions working out for you! We’re all in a different canoe to last Tuesday. No doubt about that. I’m not making any predictions at all for now… I have no clue what to expect.

    We’ve discussed before how whether news is “good” or “bad” is totally coloured by expectation. Well, I now have no expectations. There is no longer any good news, or bad news… just news for me.

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  5. Labour won’t lead in a single poll between here and polling day- a personal prediction *waits nervously*

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  6. The average of the two polls so far today puts LD and Con on equal 32 with a lead of 2.5 over Lab. Two results look less like statistical variation of LD position at the top of the polls. If this is a bubble that is going to burst, it has 48 hours until the next debate. I suspect there will be little movement before then as people are holding their breath to see what happens on Thursday night.

    Which sky channel is it being broadcast on? I can only get sky news and sky 3.

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  7. From YouGov: “49% would be either delighted or wouldn’t mind a coalition between the Lib Dems and Labour; 42% thought the same of a Lib Dem-Conservative coalition.”

    If 49% are favourable toward a Lib-Lab coalition that might not be the ammunition against the Lib Dem surge that that Tories think.

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  8. SKY news I believe,isn’t it also on BBC News 24?

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  9. I just can’t see how ComRes can move that much EITHER way given there are only an extra 500 votes to add in!

    I see this site is creaking again under the weight of nervous anticipation.

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  10. Spencer: “Well known names at some risk now (who may not have been last week) in my view:

    Phil Woolas (Oldham East)
    Liam Fox (Somerset North)
    Nicholas Soames (Sussex Mid)
    David Davis (Haltemprice)
    Oliver Letwin (Dorset West)”

    Losing Oliver Leftwing will be no great shakes. Punishment for being instrumental in bring Cameron to the Tory leadership. David Davis would be a real loss, as he is the obvious next leader.

    For Labour, Phil Woolas is doubtless in hiding lest someone remember he attributed slightly declining immigration to the recession and not to the genius of the Supreme Leader.

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  11. I only have the terrestial 5 channels – how can I follow the debate on Thursday? Can I watch it on-line?

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  12. Sky News, repeated on BBC 2 after Newsnight.

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  13. Andrew Hawkins at Comres tweets that his firm has got a “humdinger of a poll” out later today for The Indy/ITV News. No details on numbers yet. More good news for Mr Clegg?

    The above is from the Telegraph website.

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  14. @TONY DEAN
    I think you can watch it via Sky Website.

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  15. And live on BBC News 24.

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  16. I actually think that David Davies is probably safe because people think he is a maverick. Serious browny points for being anti-politician politician.

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  17. What impact will the grilling of Nick Clegg on his expenses and the revelation that his 18 months working for a lobbying firm aren’t on his LibDem website CV have? Presumably there are a lot of people out there looking for exactly this kind of thing to take the gloss off.

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  18. neil A

    “And how are your Labour majority predictions working out for you”

    I’ve been saying ever since I started on here last year that Labour won’t have a majority- you must have confused me with a Tory poster claiming they will get a majority ;-)

    For me??

    “good news” = ANY permutation whatsoever that allows the Libs and aLbs to form a coalition;

    second best?? Cameron having to accede to PR as price for a coalition with Lib Dems.

    The result of *either* is that there won’t ever be a Tory majority government again.

    :-)

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  19. Polly Ticks
    Misquoted….or just a slip up…Could be costly but I wouldn’t think so.

    I saw and heard him say it on Sky News soon after 17:00 GMT. Sky’s website now have a different video and have backed off just a little with: Angry passengers have questioned Gordon Brown’s claim that there are 100 coaches in Madrid waiting to bring them home.

    Could it be that they’re afraid the unvarnished truth would “seal the deal” for Clegg?

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  20. John TT

    “I think Donald Dewar will be smiling down now at the prospect of Holyrood being copied at Westminster.”

    When he was about 19 years old, he told me personally that his vision for a Home Rule parliament included that it could be a model for the reform of Westminster.

    I now think that might have been his primary objective.

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  21. Derek Pierson

    “The SNP in its launch came out strongly against cuts especially in Scotland (except for scrapping Trident). Do the Scots on here think that’s a vote winner?”

    Trident? Yes.

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  22. I am one of the sample of the YouGov poll that they are conducting in the 10mins after the leaders’ debates. I think their client is the Sun :-/ I’ll be watching and voting in the Sky debate on Thursday.

    What I am interested in knowing is that if there is a hung parliament, could Con or Lib say to Lab that a condition of support would be that they ditch Brown?

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