Final poll I know of tonight is YouGov’s daily poll in the Sun. Their topline figures are CON 33(+1), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 31%(-2). A slight drop in Lib Dem support, but really no significant change from yesterday’s figures, and YouGov have still got the Tories and Lib Dems within 2 points of each other, they are pretty much neck-and-neck.

UPDATE: Nothing in particular to do with YouGov, but an interesting point someone made in the comments. One of the important questions we are considering is how long the Lib Dem boost will last and to what degree it will have faded by the time we reach polling day. Someone has reminded me in the comments that a significant proportion of people have postal votes now, so some people will be starting to vote comparatively soon.


822 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 33/27/31”

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  1. Average of the 10 polls since the debate:

    Con 32
    Lab 27
    Lib 30

    Con lead Lab by 5 and LD by 2.

  2. Thursday will change things GB and DC won’t get caught out again I don’t think….

  3. Fed up with all the seat projections based on uniform swings. We all know it isn’t going to play out like that and there is going to be masses of tactical voting going on. Trouble is there is nothing better to base seats on so all the media should make sure they give massive caveats when they make their seat projections.

  4. Here’s a link to a graph of recent polls showing LD leading Lab

    http://i224.photobucket.com/albums/dd161/smart51/pollsaprmay.jpg

  5. Is there any indication how the local election are playing? My passing recollection from 97, 01, 05 was that the LDs marginally outpolled their parliamentary performance in the locals held on the same day, but that give or take the differential voting more or less cancelled itself out.

    Is this how we think it’ll work this time? If nothing else, the higher turnout from the locals in 06 should deliver quite different results than we’d have seen with two discrete polling days.

    I presume none of the polls have an additional question on local voting intentions?

  6. @AP

    I’m a bit of a maths dunce so wouldn’t know, but Eoin (who seems to know his electoral onions) seems to reckon UNS will still be a pretty accurate indicator.

    **How many times will I have to post on here before I remember to enter the bleedin’ CAPTCHA code ?**

  7. Bet the Sun will portray this as the beginning of the end for the LibDems even though there is no significant difference between yesterday and today. They actually portrayed the LibDem lead as a rejection of the LibDems policies. Even their readers are going to be doubting the paper’s credibility quite soon.

  8. Here are the polls in graphical form with a “broken” link to evade moderation.

    http://i224.photobucket.com/albums/dd161/smart51/pollsaprmay.jpg

    [Ha! I’ve fixed your link. That’ll teach you ;) ]

  9. Colin Green – Are there any reputable pollsters yet to publish a poll?

  10. @Colin Green, just putting
    i224.photobucket.com/albums/dd161/smart51/pollsaprmay.jpg

    would copy&paste fine for most browsers and not get moderated (I think).
    Nice graph to see, ta.

  11. POLLY

    I think GB is probably happy to let NC win the plaudits.

    He will just repeat his line from last time-that he is not in the running for charisma/ serious politician/substance not style-etc etc etc-and carry on attacking Cameron, hoping that the Clegg surge will see him stay in power from third place.

    Cameron has to up his game somehow-but a) the genie is out of the bottle now, b) the first debate should have been Cameron’s strong suit c) Foreign Policy has inbuilt “tv” pluses for NC-like Iraq, d) Foreign POlicy maybe won’t attract as big an audience & might be boring.

    I think it’s a big ask for DC.

  12. @COLIN GREEN
    These graphs are great.

  13. I see the Sun has coined the phrase “Vote Lib Get Lab”. Presumably this is to warn any naive voters who choose to switch en-masse on the basis of a 90 minute debate that their desire for a change is likely to ensure Gordon Brown doesn’t need the phone number for a removals company just yet.

  14. Average of the 4 polls tonight:
    Con 32.25%
    Lab 26.25%
    Lib 30%

    Which according to this site says Labour largest party with 65 short of majority.

  15. Polly,

    I wouldn’t say that Brown and Cameron were “caught out” as such last Thursday, except perhaps in being a bit surprised at how well briefed and prepared Clegg was. I don’t think that Brown behaved any differently to how he would have under any circumstances; Cameron, I think it is widely accepted, wasn’t as smooth as he normally is at PMQs for example. Clegg played his own game and did it well. In short, I see no particular reason for the second debate on Thursday to go any different, except that Cameron, under pressure, simply has to be better.

  16. AP is right.
    I would also add that the ‘even’ swing that pollsters love to refer to completely distorts the true picture. The only polls that can posibly give an accurate reflection are the regional ones.

  17. Sue Marsh

    “Colin Green – Are there any reputable pollsters yet to publish a poll?”

    Are you implying that I’m not reputable ;). I don’t know about pollsters other than what I read here. 5 polls today sounds like a lot. I’d be overjoyed if there were more. Sadly.

  18. @ COLIN GREEN

    Thanks for the graph update Colin-they are great-looks like a car crash at present !!

  19. just realised we have a new thread, and a new richard who is even further right than me. :-)

    @Sue,

    I was just saying on the other thread that Greens are now odds on to win Brighton Pavilion on Betfair. I noticed this whilst placing my depression insurance bet on Labour to win most seats. lol

    :-)

  20. Let’s face it, this LD surge can disappear as quickly as it appeared. They’ve got a soft 10%and there’s plenty of time left. However it’s quite capable of solidifying if Clegg outshines Cameron again in the next 2 TV debates..

    The FPTP truth is that this election is now Cameron v Clegg as Brown’s proxy (as Labour made clear some time ago).

    I hate to say it but I think with Labour in the mid 20s they’ve got a lot to be worried – some of their supporters on this site are frankly in la la land if they think they’re going to be the largest party with this kind of %.

  21. Colin/Sue – we haven’t had a nationwide MORI since March. We haven’t had a post-debate Populus yet either.

  22. Richard – Nice to see some non-partisan poll analysis. Sorry did I mention polls, I apologise I thought I was on Con Home.

    [Best not to reply RR – otherwise your comments look lonely once the original is culled! – AW]

  23. Re Panorama
    Anybody else get the feeling BBC settling some old score with the Labour Govt?
    @Richard – I think if DC had a few more like you, he’d be home and dry-
    But seriously these were the feeling many had seeing the back of the Tories in 1997 , but time stands still for no-one, so however wins, I hope their supporters savour the moment

  24. Con lead of 5% on Labour is ok for Labour compared to the 10’s we were seeing two weeks ago. 2% over LD’s will make LD’s happy.

    @Paul Croft

    If you used only ”Paul” in the first game I think your %’s are ;- Con 35 Lab 33 LD 24 (7th March)
    If you played the 2nd game -Amber will have your %’s. Hopefully she can have a look for you. ta

  25. Perhaps the message “Vote Lib get Brown” may be more appropriate.

  26. Um, Jaime, do you see the UK polling average on the top right hand side of the home page here? The one that says with the current figures Labour will be the largest Party? That’s not loopy, just maths.

  27. if any one likes charts this is by far the best one I have seen…

    ukelectiontrend.blogspot.com

  28. @JAIME
    Actually, as a Labour supporter I’m worried about Labour being the largest party with third place on %.
    In the long term it would be better for Labour to ‘lose’ the election than ‘win’ it on that basis.
    I think most of us are more or less happy with the LD surge though as we see them as a left of centre party.
    IMHO

  29. If the Lib dems can keep up until the weekend whatever happens the effect on the postal vote will have a dramatic effect on the final result…for many voters voting is only6/7 days away

    another effect of Labour’
    s stupid postal vote policy

  30. Cheers Anthony!

    Looks like it was culled before most people read it.

  31. @Ash

    Now *that* is a chart.

    Cheers

  32. I just put the You Gov regional data into Electoral calculus.
    The regional data loses Con 1 seat, Lab gain 9, Lib lose 8 compared to UNS.
    This suggests Labour are losing votes in areas they can afford to and the LibDems are gaining in places they can’t win in.

  33. Um Mitz, yes I have thanks. However those numbers are based on a UNIFORM NATIONAL SWING (UNS) which I think in the current circumstances is likely to be as relevant as a fish is to a bicycle.

  34. Lab Nightmare scenario not discussed…..

    Con drift backup to 35%-36% and Lab Lib Dem simply switch places…..
    LiB 30% Lab 24%……….

    Conservative majority MORE likely…..

  35. Al J: Yes: quite perspicacious weren’t I? I seem to remember predicting to two decimal places such was my confidence.

    Think the Tories were over 40 at the time.

  36. Clickable link for the chart if Anthony permits it…
    http://ukelectiontrend.blogspot.com/

  37. Someone mentioned the local elections.

    The fear for the LDs must be that people will indeed vote for them in large numbers but decide to do so only in the local election vote and revert back to either Conservative or Labour for their general election vote.

    It’s not unusual for the LDs to poll something like 27% in local elections.

  38. @Peter Chapman

    And the final day for registering to do things conventionally is TOMORROW!

  39. This poll could most probably be spinned to help everyone. Tories and Labour both up and the Lib Dems in a position no one, including them, would believe they ever would be in.

    The first leaders debate makes the second one most interesting, though it may be the last one, the economic debate that may throw everything back up in the air.

    Can be nothing but positive the next one for Lib Dems as they opposed Iraq war, unlike Tories and Labour, however I still think it will be whoever wins the economic debate in the end one that will win the three way battle. Whether it will win them a majority is a different matter all together.

  40. @Andy JS,

    I think that is a possibility in terms of a big local election Lib Dem vote, but maybe not quite as big for the general election.

    rich

  41. Just for the fun of it, feeding the average of the 10 polls since the debate into the swingometer gives the following:

    Con 243
    Lab 271
    LD 105

    Lab 55 seats short of a majority.

  42. Jaime,

    I instinctively agree with you – I can’t really see how UNS can possibly sort out the spiders web of a three way tug-o-war, but there are plenty of far more experienced psephologists than I who seem to think it’s still the best we’ve got.

  43. @ Julian

    As a non-Labour supporter i’m also very happy about the LD surge, as it suggests some much needed sanity is about to be injected into British politics. After several decades of failure by Conservatives and Labour alike the argument for an alternative is compelling.

    I hope it lasts but suspect it won’t.

  44. Glad to see Colin and Polly tonight.
    I wonder, in the spirit of this site, if either of you would suggest where they think Cameron should go now and what they hope to see from his campaign?

  45. Surely Iraq is over and done with now? The Foreign Policy debate is more likely to cover Afghanistan, which is a far less clear-cut case for the LibDems. They don’t propose to withdraw (although it seems some of their candidates claim they do) and many of the anti-Iraq war arguments don’t apply. Besides which, the LibDems supported the Afghan war when it began. To pose as anti-war now might smack of being “chicken”.

  46. Anthony is there a Populus tonight. Rumours of 33/31/29 Tory/Lab/Lib…is this right or more tweettwattery?

  47. This poll shows the following swings:

    Con to LD: 4.0%
    Lab to LD: 8.5%

    The LDs would win 14 Con seats with a 4.0% swing.

    The LDs would win 30 Lab seats with a 8.5% swing.

    So 62 + 14 + 30 = 106 seats.

  48. @ JULIAN GILBERT

    “In the long term it would be better for Labour to ‘lose’ the election than ‘win’ it on that basis.”

    Which puts you in -an honourable-minority of one amongst Labour supporters here Julian.

  49. The one trend emerging from these polls remains the fact that the Cons lose much more the Lab thus limiting the swing… ie Lab remaining largest party. Another interesting fact is that most Libs would support a coalition with Lab instead of the Cons.

    However thus YouGov poll now has me worried for the reds. I was hoping for a 28-29% at least… if not 30%. EOIN i need your assessment mate to give me some peace of mind.

  50. Jaime,

    Quite right. With polls as they are at present any attempt to predict seat numbers is guesswork – not maths. There has been a paradigm shift, and UNS from “notional” 2005 figures is totally meaningless.

    The only way we can know what the new baseline is in these circumstances i sto have a mega-poll of each and every one of the 650 seats for the new parliament. We will be getting one of those on 6th ay with a sample of +/-50k voters in each of the 650 seats.

    Then we can start working out what UNS means for the election after – which may require us to get our calculators out pdq.

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