Two more polls – Opinium in the Daily Express has figures of CON 32%(-7), LAB 26%(-5), LDEM 29%(+12). The Liberal Democrat are up a mighty twelve points from the company that normally gives them the lowest ratings.

ComRes meanwhile was supposed to come out at 10pm, but given the embargo already seems to have been broken by several sources I may as well put up the figures. Topline voting intention is CON 32%(+1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 28%(-1). No significant change from their previous poll, which was also completed after the debate.

We’ve still got at least YouGov to come tonight, but looking at the polls so far we are seeing a pretty consistent picture. All the polls over the last day or two have the Conservatives at 32%-33%, most have Labour between 26%-28% (Angus Reid have them a bit lower as usual). What variation there is comes more in Liberal Democrat support, which ranges from 28% right up to 33% in YouGov’s poll yesterday.

72 Responses to “Opinium and ComRes polls”

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  1. Anthony

    Tweetminster’s reporting YouGov as:

    C 33 (+1)
    L 27 (+1)
    LD 31 (-2)

    Can you confirm these?

  2. Stop it! I can’t keep up.

  3. YouGov

    Con 33%
    Lab 27%
    LibDem 31%

  4. The LDs on about 28% sounds very impressive, but the problem for them is that they already did very well in 2005 to poll 23% of the vote as a result of factors such as the Iraq War. So good as it sounds, 28% is only a relatively modest increase from 2005. A 5% increase won’t win them an enormous number of seats by any means.

  5. No significant change, then. Everything well within MoE.

  6. I meant on the YouGov poll.

  7. Anthony , I am hearing disturbing reports that tonight’s Yougov poll was subject to blatant push polling . I am sure that you can reassure me that that was not the case .

  8. The rolling average is C32.5 L27.5 LD29.3. Crikey. This is certainly one exiting race. Can’t wait for YouGov.

  9. @COLIN GREEN – “This is certainly one exiting race..”
    Yes but whose exit will it be exactly?
    It’s also quite an exciting race too. ;)

  10. Contrary to popular opinion I can’t help feeling that the Lib-Dem surge is good for the Conservatives. If 90 minutes of TV can make so much difference to Clegg, then the opposite is probable true of the person who finished last (GB). So as voters examine the Lib-Dem policies more closely, they will probable gravitate to the Conservatives.

  11. Betfair has just moved from 4-1 for Labour with most seats to 4.2-1. Any reason why the odds would drift out after this opinion poll? Is it better for the Cons in some way?

    Might be time for my speculative £20.

  12. Steve Cooper – Here’s food for thought.
    If GB is so “unpopular” in at least one poll tonight he is just as “popular” as the Mighty Clegg.
    Aren’t all the parties about as “popular” as each other at the moment?

    “Contrary to popular opinion I can’t help feeling that the Lib-Dem surge is good for the Conservatives.”
    If a couple of weeks ago I’d told you the Tories would be polling 32/33%, would you have thought it was good news?

  14. @Richard O

    Based on today’s numbers I’d say those are excellent odds. All today’s polls (with the possible exception of Angus Reid) suggest Labour as the largest party on a UNS, indeed, I think pretty much every one since the LD surge began has shown the same.

  15. @Steve Cooper

    I might have agreed with you had all three entered the debate on an equal footing. However, the public perception of GB is already set in stone to a large extent, whereas NC was a complete unknown quantity.

  16. Opinium is just sheer joy for Labour and Lib Dem supporters. I see your ComRes EOIN and raise you an Opinium.
    Con -7
    Lab NC (!!!)
    Lib +12

    That’s ALL of the Clegg surge coming from Cons and Others, none from Labour.

  17. Did anybody see the Tory PPB tonight? Interesting that they chose, at the last minute, to pull a stridently anti-Labour/Brown broadcast in favour of another soft focus Cameron-centric affair. What does this tell us about their strategy to counter the Lib Dem bandwagon? I think it reveals continued muddled thinking at the heart of their campaign. The Hilton/Coulson inspired “cult of Cameron” school continues to hold sway with hardly any other member of the Tory front bench getting a look in. I don’t know whether their private polling or focus groups are continuing to convince them that this is is the way to go, but aren’t they making a serious mistake in thinking that the more the public see of Cameron the more they like him? Wasn’t a key lesson of the first Leaders TV Debate that the opposite may indeed be true? And that’s what makes me think that this theory that a back to form Cameron will win the next two TV debates and turn the political tide just doesn’t hold water. I can’t see it and, as the astute historian Stephen Sharner, said on TV the other day, all the evidence from past US presidential debates is that first impressions are the one’s that stick and that, generally, the candidate who steals a march in the first debate then retains the clear advantage.

    I wonder what the Dark Lord thinks of all this, because surely the political conjuror that is Peter Mandelson is behind the Labour strategy. Just as he was almost alone in calling the 1992 election lost for Labour at a time when everyone else was giving Neil Kinnock directions to Downing Street, I think he is the great political master of his generation. My theory is that some months ago he knew that this election was unwinnable for a Brown led Labour party and he’s been cooking up a strategy to stop the Tories winning ever since. My question to the old political wizard is this. When are you going to put your creation, Mr Clegg, back in his box! Don’t leave it too late, now.

  18. Richard O:

    It’s because some punters thought 4-1 was worth a punt. That’s all.

  19. Mark, yep, I can assure you that it’s nonsense.

    Voting intention was asked first as always, and other questions go afterwards. The questions people are fussing about are nothing to do with the Sun polling anyway, they are private polling done on completely seperate polls.

  20. Swing from Con to LD with these polls:

    Opinium: 3.5%.

    ComRes: 3.0%.

  21. Sue Marsh , sorry to upset you but Opinium is Lab -5

  22. I’m going to stick my neck out and say the Lib Dems are going to get the most votes at the election and be the largest party. (though not a majority)

    I don’t think Labour or the Tories are going to have an answer for the Clegg effect and I think support is going to gravitate away over the course of the next two debates.

    I could be completely wrong but I’m now starting to think the Lib Dems might end up polling 36%+.

    Where the Tories and Labour end up after that is anyones guess.

    And I’m not a Lib Dem supporter – I recently gave a donation to one of the other two.

  23. Does anyone remember 40 days and forty nights ago agreeing the Con needed 40+ to get a majority?

    Steve Cooper, were you around then? Your post puzzles me enormously if you were.

  24. From what I understand a modest increase in LD support means carnage for the Tories in the South West. Wheras they would have to perform out of their skins for Labour seats in the North to go.
    Is this correct?- Please advise.

  25. Thanks , Anthony .

  26. @Sue Marsh

    Sorry Labour is infact -5.

  27. Scrub my earlier post re Opinium. AW has left off the -5 for labour making it look unchanged. Oh well.


    “All today’s polls (with the possible exception of Angus Reid) suggest Labour as the largest party on a UNS”

    erm..tonights YouGov-33/27/31 gives a UNS of Cons largest party :-

  29. quite weird how i read these comments and people are happy with a third place fineshing…….im pretty sure GB or DC aint jumping with joy right now…..and no doubt the prince of darkness is preparing his nexts steps very thoroughly

  30. Both these polls indicate that with UNS the LDs would win 13 seats from the Tories:

    Guildford, Solihull, Eastbourne, Weston-super-Mare, Ludlow, Dorset West, Meon Valley, Devon Central, Devon West, Wells, Totnes, Worcestershire West, Newbury.

  31. Nick Hadley – Whilst I agree with you totally (though I give the LibDems a little more credit than you) and had the same debate last night, you will, I predict, now have opened a very angry can of worms.

  32. @Sue Marsh

    If GB is so “unpopular” in at least one poll tonight he is just as “popular” as the Mighty Clegg.
    Aren’t all the parties about as “popular” as each other at the moment?

    Which poll is that, Sue ?

  33. The biggest problem for the LD is that they have no recent heartland where they can bank on bagging a large number of seats. Their 30% is looking to be pretty well distributed and it won’t work in constituencies where they are up against 50% to 60% Con/Lab support. It will probably only translate to about 15% of the seats. Nick Clegg is just one enormous elephant in the room and the LD bounce is only going to have one horrible consequence, another 5 years of Labour. I think I might emigrate.

  34. right, just put £20 on Labour to win most seats. Got 4.2-1, which is just far too long, so will get £104 back if they do (£84 profit).

    its a nice insurance for me, as it means I will have something to be happy about either way on the 6th/7th May. (unless of course somehow Brown stays in power with the fewest number of seats, but I am pretty certain this would trigger a public revolt against the system, so very unlikely)


  35. I think Mandelson misread this terribly. Brown’s strategy in debate 1 was to diffuse Clegg by saying “I agree with Nick”. The problem now is that the most of the “left leaning” voters are much closer to LibDems on foreign policy (Iraq war, European ties, more distance from America, Trident – not to mention Home matters such as ID cards, detention without trial etc) than they are to Labour. And on the economy, Cable is perceived to have performed better than Brown/Darling.

    Now the LibDems have all the momentum, I can’t see why they won’t become the party of choice for the left. I cannot see what Brown can do to change the momentum away from Labour towards the LibDems. The Guardian and Indy could well back them – the only reason they have not to date is because if the left has more than one credible option it splits their vote. If Labour ceases to look credible – and regardless of the electoral dynamics, claiming legitimacy on polling 26% would be an embrassment – there is no reason to back them.

    But it is very exciting – this election could well spell the end for any of the political parties (because if Clegg gets to be kingmaker and plays his cards badly the LibDems would struggle for a generation). Anyone who says any of these polls are good for Labour or the Tories is simply lying: Cons on 32-33 and Lab on 26-28 is terrible for both of them.

  36. Well, as I see it, there is good and bad news for the Tories on the latest polls:-

    1) It seems that the Lib Dem surge has been slightly worse for the Tories, if you look at the regional breakdown and polling generally (where it is now a bit harder than before for the Tories to get a majority/become the largest party). I would love to see the marginal polls before being certain of this though.
    2) The Labour vote is well done on a week ago also. Both parties are struggling, and it would be close as to who would be the largest party. There is still room for the Conservatives to even get a majority if DC has a very good debate(s). Same is true of GB and Labour, of course.

  37. The next debate is so important for Cameron – if he and Brown get comprehensively blown away by Nick Clegg again then we may see a whole new level of momentum.

    Suspect that no matter what happens though the Tory press will be more hostile after this debate to Clegg (particularly over Europe etc)

  38. Colin – According to this site, YouGov puts Lab 10 seats ahead?

  39. Anthony, using your own weightings to get weighted averages of the current poll list in the UKPR polling average, I make the sums 34 / 29 /26 not 34 / 28 / 27 that you are reporting.

    It’s not much and I may well have missed something but every % counts for each party I guess.

  40. On the face of it Bill O’Connor is right, however, there have been examples of big swings to the Lib Dems from Labour in General Elections – about 17% in a Manchester seat in 2005 springs to mind. What has changed, of course, is that the Lib Dems are much stronger politically in many large Northern cities than was once the case. Such electoral presence translates into more people on the ground and more money to spend on the campaign – and with the Clegg impact, greater motivation to campaign hard. The additional point is that many larger cities in the North have large student numbers and younger age profiles – another factor likely to help the Lib Dems.

  41. @Colin

    Sorry (it wasn’t a partisan point – I’m not a Lab supporter). But my general point stands I think i.e. the weight of polls in the last few days suggests a Lab would be the largest party.

  42. If most of the first results to come in at the next election show the LD vote rising by about 5%, would that be anything for LDs to go absolutely crazy over?

    Because 28% is 5% higher than they won in 2005.

    It’s a good increase but nothing spectacular.

  43. Surbiton – Com Res – Con 32 Lab 28 Lib 28

  44. BTW I find the UNS on, say, the BBC (and some other sites) give a slightly different result to the one on here. The one on the BBC generally favours the Tories more.

  45. UNS:-

    AR:- 32/24/32 + 266/212/140=Cons LP
    Opinium-32/26/29 =264/249/105=Cons LP
    ComRes :-32/28/28 = 245/279/94=Lab LP
    YG:- 33/27/31=261/245/112=Cons LP

  46. @Richard O
    I think you have placed your bet on @Date & most seats ‘ market.
    If you had gone for the ‘most seats’ market instead you would have got 5.2 – 1.

    Could make a joke here regarding Tory spending, but I will resist :)

  47. Anyone on here know the best price for an outright Tory majority still after all this..?

  48. Colin
    AW’s calculator says it’s the other way round -but – your calculation source is comforting to you???

  49. @Colin

    I get different figures out of the UNS calculator on here – strange. Anyway looks like we’re all off over to the new thread!

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