There is also a new Angus Reid poll out tonight on Political Betting – the topline figures with changes from before the debate are CON 32%(-6), LAB 24%(-4), LDEM 32%(+10). So a similar Lib Dem surge to that other pollsters have reported, but as usual with Angus Reid Labour are somewhat lower.

Tonight we also have YouGov regional breaks. Just to clean up some confusion from last week, the regional breaks in this poll ARE properly politically weighted within each region so should be meaningful. However, in this instance half the fieldwork was obviously done before the debate and before the big increase in Lib Dem support, there doesn’t seem to be any obvious trend there in terms of where the Lib Dems are advancing, but we’ll check back next week for what data collected entirely after the Lib Dem surge shows.


66 Responses to “Angus Reid/PBC – 32/24/32”

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  1. Tonight’s YG prediction

    Blue 34%
    Red 30%
    Yellow 27%

  2. From the PB site:

    “And Labour fall 8 points behind.”

    Angus Reid/Politicalbetting Apr 19 Apr 12
    CONSERVATIVES 32% 38%
    LIB DEMS 32% 22%
    LABOUR 24% 28%
    —————————————————————
    Labour were 10 points behind in AR’s previous poll – ROFLMAO at the negative spin the reds invariably get :-)

  3. And no ‘joy’ for computer whizz friend. Thank goodness!

    He usually builds financial models – probably for bankers ;-)

  4. Amber,

    Aint you seen the Comres?

    It has LD down 2.

  5. Regional breakdowns are interesting – with AW’s provisos of course. On first impressions Lib Dems seem to be doing better where there are seats to be picked up such as the North west, rather than where opportunities are limited, such as Wales.

  6. @Amber Star

    Obviously Labour are falling upwards.

  7. You Gov key regions:

    Midlands = Conservatives down NINE in one week (lab up one since last week)

    North West = Conservatives down four in one week (lab down two since last week)

    East England = Conservatives down six in one week (lib dems up seven since last week)

    Wales = Conservatives down four in one week (lab up four since last week)

  8. I’ll have a punt on tonight’s YouGov as well:

    C:30
    L:26
    LD:35

  9. @Al J,

    Your MORI marginal wait must be getting quite fun..

    A Labour majority draws nearer..

  10. YouGov prediction: C – 35%, Lab – 28%, LD – 27%.

    Eoin – I hope you don’t mind that I’ve been reading your lectures online. I feel as though I ought to be paying!

  11. @Andy JS….

    be gentle with them lol.

  12. @Amber Star

    “Labour were 10 points behind in AR’s previous poll”

    Ooohhh yyeesss- par for the course from them.

    Its a shame they never comment accurately on things because their are a lot of ‘punters’ who have made/ will make bets based upon the pithy comments made underneath the poll numbers that rarely paint the actual picture….and they’ll lose money.

  13. Opinium:

    Tories – 32% (-7)
    Lib Dems – 29% (+12)
    Lab – 26% (-5)

  14. I am now confident that Labour will get less than 27% and the Lib Dems more than 31% in the GE.

  15. Opinium = 32/26/29

    EC projects

    Con = 264
    Lab = 249
    LD = 105

    @Sue- This was the type of scenario where GB offers NC PM

  16. I am sooooo pleased. Feck’n bankers & their algorithms ;-)

    @ Éoin, I haven’t seen the COMRES. Is it official? Is it after D Day when Clegg became Churchill?

    (D = Debate for anybody who doesn’t care enough to figure it out) :-)

  17. Con 32%
    Lab 26%
    LibDem 29%

  18. philip JW

    “I am now confident that Labour will get less than 27% and the Lib Dems more than 31% in the GE.”

    EASY there tiger !!!

    ‘Confident’ projections can only be made on eve of polling- and everyone with any sense will be adjusting their *personal predictions* on a daily basis betwen now and May 5th.

    ;-)

  19. Con 32%
    Lab 26%
    LibDem 29%

    meant to say Opinium.

  20. @ JAY

    Obviously Labour are falling upwards.
    ——————————————–
    I love it when they do that :-) :-) :-)

  21. I think that the Foreign Affairs debate will shed some light on the Lib Dems. It is the area where they are weakest. The Iraq War is history now. There is no need to be flogging a dead hourse.

    It is interesting that all polls showed a major Clegg Bounce but I think it was major hysteria. Clegg more popular that Sir Winston Churchill the greatest Prime Minister of this country? Two words my friends AS IF. NO one can compare to Churchill. NO ONE.

    Brown has been whizzing off trying to save the world again with the ash crisis. Sending in the Royal Navy is a good idea. A Tory idea. But the question would be what affect would all this have on the polls? Now I know that all the Labourites say it would be good for Labour and the Tories say it would be bad for Labour and the Lib Dems say he should have plugged the volcano up with a giant cork, :) But we need to see to see if Brown dithers or not.

    So it is all fun fun fun all the way my fellow poll gazers :)

  22. @ Kyle Downing

    “Sir Winston Churchill the greatest Prime Minister of this country?”

    That’s debatable.

  23. Wow. Been away for a week, but this really shows how much we know with our predictions! As far as predictions go for any polls or elections, I am now out… I have no idea.

    The Lib surge could keep Labour in; some Lib voters could come back to the cons in marginals; or if the Libs are now taken seriously even more people could vote for them. This is madness!

    At the very least we are in for a fascinating time now, and we could be in the grip of a real political revolution. Time to sit back and enjoy!

  24. @ Jay and Amber

    “Obviously Labour are falling upwards”

    Tomorrows headlines: Gordon Brown Defies Gravity!

  25. The Cons have definately lost all their gains since the 2005 election just when it matters. For the last 9 months the Conservatives have been flagging.

  26. @Hmmm

    Completely agree. Whilst I want the Lib Dem bandwagon to keep rolling (hell they only need another 10 or so % to start thinking about an outright majority for themselves) it is way to unpredictable to suggest anything with real certainty. We have seen the impact from one leader’s debate – who knows how the others will go? And that’s not taking account of anything else which might throw a spanner in the works.

    It’s riveting!

  27. Not a chance of me adjusting my GE prediction, as I already had LD higher than most, and a small gap between Con and Lab:

    Con 36, Lab 32, LD 26.

  28. If Clegg won the popular vote in a general election, it would be something Churchill never achieved

  29. Going to be interesting on May 7th..

    Libs running on the “we’re not the other 2” and “change” ticket…. then Brown is still PM.

    I think that this may be an issue fro Libs longterm, no coalition will last that long. As a minimum they must get PR full PR at that and not AV.

    I reckon all other things will be up for grabs.

  30. @Raf,

    I’ve a feeling you’ll be closer than most ;)

  31. @KyleDowning
    “I think that the Foreign Affairs debate will shed some light on the Lib Dems. It is the area where they are weakest. The Iraq War is history now. There is no need to be flogging a dead hourse.”

    This is another post that does not reference today’s Foreign Secretaries Debate. Have I dreamt it up?

  32. Can anyone say why AR continually has Labour so much lower than the other companies?

  33. Regional poll data actually looks quite good for tory gains from labour – less swing in East, south west, and south east, none in Scotland, but more in the marginal heavy regions of midlands and north west. On this basis although the tories won’t win an overall majority they would, I’d think, be easily the largest party.

  34. I think what’s most interesting about this, is the impact equal TV exposure seems to have had.

    If all the major minor parties were given an equal platform in the way the LibDems have, it would be interesting to see what the effect would be.
    Salmond and Wyn-Jones may have had a point…

    It seems that for a lot of people, they’ve never really heard of the LibDems, and are just weary of the reds-blues derby… it’s as though, suddenly many people have been given another alternative that they never had before.

    Quite honestly, I think the LDs have it all to play for, and there’s every chance now of two General Elections this year, and maybe the second one being under a new non-FPTP system.

    Now that would be a real revolution.

  35. @Greengrass

    I am sorry but I wasn’t even aware of that particular debate taking place.

  36. Unless things change drastically, I cannot see how the Tories can win a majority. The Tories are really only where they need to be in the South. My opinion is that the Midlands is the most important region and will decide the outcome. Probably why Labour launched the manifesto in Birmingham.

    If the polls continue as they are, the outcome of the election is likely to be a hung parliament. The current Betfair odds are approx 60% in favour of there being a hung parliament. Will Clegg be a King maker or let Brown decide what to do. ? Even if Labour end up with fewer seats that the Tories, they are entitled to continue in governement and put forward their plans in the queens speech. It will then be up to the other parties whether they support or vote it down, forcing another election.

  37. Breaking News:

    The UNS has exploded.

  38. @Greengrass

    No, you didn’t dream it up. I saw snippets of it. It’s just that it was on the Daily Politics show (and who watches that apart from you and me ;))

  39. Per Twitter

    YuoGov

    C – 33 (+1)
    L – 27 (+1)
    LD – 31 (-2)

    And so it begins …

  40. Kyle: “The navy: a Tory idea”

    Yes: that’s what Liam Fox said, as I posted before. I describedit as the weediest, most risible and transparently political comment so far.

    I can imagine the government team smacking their heads and crying:

    “Blimey” Of course! Ships!! Why didn’t we think of that?”.

  41. “That’s debatable.”

    True, but he’s undeniably one of the PMs who people consider in this bracket, rightly or wrongly. He also come 1st in the BBC’s ‘100 Greatest Britons’. So that’s pretty good.

    For the record:

    Arthur Wellesley, 1st Duke of Wellington, came 15th
    Thatcher came 16th
    Blair came 67th
    Lloyd George came 79th

    And in their defence, I don’t think it was the Duke of Wellington’s PM days people were voting for. Not a bad result for Blair either, above such greats as Bobby Moore, Charles Babbage, Tim Berners-Lee, Bono and even Sir Walter Raleigh – result!

  42. @Jon,

    These are the averages over the parliament’s term for all the polling comapnies.

    My answer is that historically they have others and yellows too high. Those that afford labour lowest, often afford yellwo higher. Heavan knows why?

    YG 39.3 31.3 17.3
    AR 38.8 25.1 20
    BPIX 40 31.4 16.8
    ComRes 39.7 28.1 18.1
    Harris 36.5 27.1 19.4
    ICM 38.5 32 19.8
    IPSOS-MORI 38.3 33.5 17.5
    Opinium 38.9 29.5 15.3
    Populus 37.7 32.4 18.2
    TNS 37.25 32.25 20.25

  43. The AR poll puts Cons back in seat lead (Electorial Calculus) i.e Con 266 Lab 212 Lib140.
    Worrying for Labour and I still believe that the electorate will realise that Cameron is up against Labour and LIb/Lab.

    The Lib Dem X factor boost promoted by the media is promoting interest in what was a 2 horse race. However Browns courtship of Clegg will be his downfall and Cleggs will be when items like Euorope and asylum need to be answered.
    I of the grey brigade have been through many elections and there have been political cycles. These i believe are not changesd on a TV debate, they are decided by policy, trust.and track record of the present government.
    7days ago the polls showed Cons with a small majority: later a Lbour minority and now Con Minority. Am I expected to believe that the possible make up of a future government t can change in such short a space of time with so many variances.

    Labour should be the most worried at the moment as they are still 8 points behind Cons. Con 36 LIb 27 Lab 23 would put the Cons just in Majority country. Where the 5 point or above goes will be important to all parties.

  44. A better day’s polling for the Tories than recent days (overall), I’d say – especially if the YouGov is true. All still to play for – with a majority still possible for Labour or the Tories IMO.

  45. None of us can guess what will happen, until we see whether how permanent this LibDem surge is. Often the sheer number of polls being commissioned can create the impression of an ongoing trend (A Poll shows the LibDems surge! Another Poll shows the LibDems surge! And another, and another, and another!!) when in fact they were all conducted over a couple of days and are reinforcing our picture of those days rather than the longer term trend.

    If this LibDem surge does hold, then obviously we have to rejig all of our calculations from the ground up. If it recedes then there is a good chance that the voters gained by the LibDems will go back to their original homes in roughly the same proportions as they came (with a good few staying put of course. I’d be surprised if they fell back below 24-25% at worst after the events of the past week).

  46. Al J:

    Can you explain how I find the first “prediction” thingy we did? Do you havethe date? Can we club together to have 40/.30/20/10 tattooed onto my mate Mark from Lancs?

    Actually I’m curious to see what I said: I know I had LD very high and Con in narrow 1st but can’t recall the details.

    Ta.

    Paul C.

  47. YouGov

    Con 33%
    Lab 27%
    LibDem 31%

  48. @KyleDowning

    I can heartily recommend it :-)

  49. Will be interesting to see if Clegg gets another ‘bounce’ from the next debate.

    If he does and the Lib Dems look like the only party that can stop the Tories then will Labour voters lend their votes to the Liberals?

  50. @Paul

    I’m just having a look -just give me a little while thanks al

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