There is also a new Angus Reid poll out tonight on Political Betting – the topline figures with changes from before the debate are CON 32%(-6), LAB 24%(-4), LDEM 32%(+10). So a similar Lib Dem surge to that other pollsters have reported, but as usual with Angus Reid Labour are somewhat lower.

Tonight we also have YouGov regional breaks. Just to clean up some confusion from last week, the regional breaks in this poll ARE properly politically weighted within each region so should be meaningful. However, in this instance half the fieldwork was obviously done before the debate and before the big increase in Lib Dem support, there doesn’t seem to be any obvious trend there in terms of where the Lib Dems are advancing, but we’ll check back next week for what data collected entirely after the Lib Dem surge shows.


66 Responses to “Angus Reid/PBC – 32/24/32”

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  1. @ PAUL CROFT

    If you played the 1st prediction game & AL J doesn’t have a record of your prediction, it will be in the archives.

    If you didn’t play until the 2nd game, I’ll have your prediction. Let me know if you want me to go look it up.

  2. Matt

    I agree, the Tories will be relieved that the tide has at least been stemmed and the regionals suggest they may still get enough to be largest party. Bad numbers for Labour 24 – 27 – but they are not out of it and too much has happened for anything to be predicted. Cameron looked better today within his comfort zone.

  3. On 7th March 2010

    Paul Croft your GE Prediction was:-

    Con 35
    Lab 33
    LD 24

  4. Eoin (7.35pm)

    Your YouGov prediction 34/30/27

    Actual poll 33/27/31

    It might be time to stop all these poll predictions and await their publication!

  5. Between the regional polling and the two polls published over the weekend that were CONDUCTED before the Leader’s Debate, it’s easy to see that a minimum 5 point increase in the LD polling happened in the 4 days BEFORE the Leader’s Debate!

    From all the media (especially TV and radio!), you’d think ALL the Lib-Dem increase in polling has happened since and because of the Leader’s Debate, when in fact it’s obvious people liked what Vince Cable said in the Chancellor’s Debate (the first debate the LD won!) and also liked what was announced in the LD manifesto.

    I believe what is causing the majority of the LD ‘bump’ is the £10,000 tax allowance. We now have an economy where more and more workers are on sub £20k salaries, and this is very attractive to them – especially when it means soaking the rich tax avoiders!

  6. @Sue Marsh

    I think you’ll find that Labour are -5 on Opinium!

  7. @Amber

    Please can you have a look for Paul Croft’s prediiction -for your game. I have three Pauls in my down load but none with ”Croft” for the last name. So it looks as if you’re right and he didn’t play until the 2nd game.

    Thanks

  8. Angus Reid love giving Labour a low number, so i guess that means in reality its even worse for the Tories. If they can’t beat Brown what chance do they have under Cameron?

  9. If the Lib dem surge continues then there are three possible scenarios;

    1. Lib Dems are the largest party or win outright.

    2. Either Labour or Conservatives lose badly and the one who doesn’t wins.

    3. We have a hung parliament and head into a period of uncertainty…or even into the abyss

  10. Rosie P,

    All three of my trends came true

    Tory climbed
    LAbour climbed
    Lib fell

  11. @Eoin Clarke What part of a 10% rise in Lib-Dem polling means ‘Lib fell’? And what part of -6 (Con) and -4 (Lab) mean a climb?

  12. @UK_John
    Spot on! Clegg’s debate surge only accounts for +3% of the LD support, as far as I can see!

  13. Only 2 of yesterdays poll smeant an awful lot.

    ICM, AR, Opinium = they are less useful. They are the first full reportings since the debate…

    ComRes and YG are much more important. We have already heard from them before- thus we can compare their resutls with their previous polls.

    Logical ?

    Well if you do that the pattern is simple…… Red up , Blue up, Yellow down.

  14. The regional data looks bad for the Tories. They are losing support in just about every region bar London.

    Labour have maintained their share in many regions or suffered relatively smaller losses than the Tories, with the exception of the southwest (where it really doesn’t matter for them) and London.

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/8065/the_view_from_the_regions_19_april_10.html

  15. Woah, Eoin, how is a LibDem average of 27, having come up from 20, in the space of afew days a fall? And how is a Labour average of 28, having gone down from 31/32, a climb in support?

    You can’t just say some polls mean more than others for no reason, why do you suddenly single out comres and yougov as if they have more authority on the matter, what is wrong with ICM AR and opinium, is it cause they do not support what you wish to see happen come the election? Personal bias is not a viable method to decid suddenly that some polls are better than others.

    (it also worh noting that Yougov tends to give labour a slightly higher average poll rating and the LD a somewhat lower one.)

  16. @Mikey,

    I was referring ot the two most recent eg.. Comres and Yg..

    the other polls fieldwork is dated

    YG and ComR already produced post debate polls

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