ICM’s latest Guardian poll is now out in the Guardian, and echoes the Lib Dem surge we’ve seen elsewhere. The topline figures are CON 33%(-1), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 30%(+3). Changes are from the previous ICM poll, which the Guardian describe as being conducted partially after the debate, but which was actually about 90% pre-debate.

Clegg remains in third place on most competent Prime Minister, 21% to Brown on 30% and Cameron on 32%, but he is seen as most more substanital and more honest than the other two leaders.


117 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – 33/28/30”

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  1. There is a big regional poll (10,000 sample) reported in Politics Home that says the following;

    “The party’s [Lib Dem] largest increases since last week have been registered in the North West and the East of England.

    Labour have had mixed fortunes, gaining support in areas such as the North East and Wales, but falling back in London, the North West and Yorkshire.

    It has been a bad week for the Conservatives across the country. Their support has fallen or remained static in every region apart from London.”

    The tables show a big improvement for Labour vs the Tories in E and W Midlands, E England and Wales. The poll seems to be a week long one, so may include some dated data, but as AW doesn’t comment on these I have no idea how useful or relevant this is.

  2. It seems to me that the ‘soft’ vote is the Tory one and the ‘hard’ vote is Anti-Labour.
    If I were Cameron I’d be very worried indeed.

  3. @Eoin,

    Your posts go from the sublime to the ridiculous.

    Labour are hardly blazing their way to a majority on 28%! They have widened to 28-1 to get a majority on betfair!!!!!!!!!!

    Most seats, yes, that’s an outside possibility now.

    rich

  4. Alec – More than half of the YouGov regional poll (and it isn’t really a regional poll, just an amalgamation of their polling from last week) was taken before the events of Thursday-present. While interesting, the figures don’t tell us much about where the LDs are gaining now.

  5. “The party’s [Lib Dem] largest increases since last week have been registered in the North West and the East of England”

    If so on current levels they could really eat into the Conservative heartlands

    “Labour have had mixed fortunes, gaining support in areas such as the North East and Wales, but falling back in London, the North West and Yorkshire.”

    Yorkshire is looking increasingly dodgy for Labour.

    “It has been a bad week for the Conservatives across the country. Their support has fallen or remained static in every region apart from London.”

    Yep- precisely what my reasoned observations would state after this last week.

  6. I see a partial return back to Lab and Con tonight on YouGov, after a few defectors have had a think over the weekend.

    So my prediction for tonight would be

    Con – 33%
    Lib Dem – 30%
    Lab – 28%

  7. “The public think that Clegg is the best thing since Churchill.”

    What the Sunday Times actually said was that Clegg was almost as popular as Churchill -but it added “in 1945 just before he lost the election.
    That last bit is quite important.

  8. The changes you calculate in this poll are relative to the last ICM/Sunday Telegraph poll not the last ICM/Guardian poll. If you were to compare these results to that you’d have:

    Con 33 (-4) Lab 28 (-3) LibDem 30 (+10)

  9. I have just read that in the Sub-Continent, Clegg is more popular than Ghandi.

  10. Eoin:

    OR: if Labour are “blazing to victory” [my prediction all along but via largest party] then:

    1/ UKIP Tories desert to the right

    2/ Lib Dem Tories desert to the left.

    Polls pick this up

    3/ Lib Dem supporters more confident they don’t need to vote tactically

    etc etc etc

    It could be thevery bandwagon you don’t think exists.

    The result may still be a Labour victory but that could also occur alongside a very empowered Lib Dem representation and a very – perhaps fatally weakened Tory party.

  11. Amber, Al-J, – Step down, crisis averted ;)
    All quite rosy really for labour. Even the ridiculous AR show the smallest gap ever and don’t give DC a majority.

    What’s more, the surge shows little sign of abating, keeping things very exciting indeed.

    Would love to know more about those figures Alec mentioned

  12. A bit off topic but I wonder in the event of a hung parliament and the Palace having to get involved what it would do for support for the monarchy?

    The polls that have been published in recent years have always suggested that a majority support the retention of the monarchy, but I wonder what involvement with a political decision that is bound to upset a lot of people will do to the institutions popularity? If we’re going to have electoral reform constitutional reform also becomes a topic up for discussion, i.e. is it the Queen’s job to be making decisions in this kind of situation, or is it just evidence of the broader failure of our system?

    I wonder if Liz has a pollster?

  13. Quite apart from the election, these polls raise an interesting question.

    If Labour got the largest number of seats while still coming a clear third in the number of votes, what would the effect be on public confidence in the democratic process?

    Would most people see the UK as a democracy any more if the third place finishers got more MPs than the top two?

    (Note this isn’t a legal or constitutional question, but a political one. If people perceive a party to have been unfairly elected, their technical victory may cause great damage to their reputation.)

  14. @EOIN

    Com Res Tories 32% Lab 28% Lib 28%. Lab biggest party 279 seats Tories 245. Maj of Lib voters prefer pact with Lab.

    Predicting seat numbers given the current volitility is a fools game. We need to wait for a marginals poll – one with a sizeable sample – before we can guess how this Lib Dem surge will play out.

  15. TONIGHT’s COMRES has labour just -1% since before the debate…..

    This is surely evidence that labour are recovering.

  16. LD’S gaining ground here in S West England.

    Good day too for GB in respect of leadership.

  17. Oh yes, YouGov.
    Goodness knows what they’ll be on, but I’d be surprised to see Lab as low as 26 again. Can’t really predict beyond that!

  18. Jamie,

    You are about the 10th person to tell me that… I’ll tell you what I told them…

    We have been here before 1983, I cited an academic study of that which showed UNS to hold up well under the tri-partite model

  19. Important to note it says the regional data was from ‘last week’. Not when last week – which in view of subsequent events could make this relatively irrelevant!

  20. Sue

    There is an AR poll in January with Labour at 24%. Since then compared to AR’s figures today, the Tories have dropped 8 points.

  21. I still believe the sharp pin of deep scrutiny will burst Clegg’s exponential bubble.

    Their crime and punishment, immigration, Europe stuff is very susceptible.

    There’s a lot of hysteria surrounding this at the moment – and it’s being perpetuated by a rampant media – but I have faith in the public’s cool head come election day.

  22. I am worried about the way this election is going! In fact it is following a trend for about 5 years. 3 key events in the last 5 years is set to define this election and it will probably be 5 by the time May 6th comes along.

    1. Tory Conference 2005 – David Cameron comes from nowhere to defeat the hot favourite David Davis who done nothing wrong but deliver a bad speech.

    2. Tory Conference 2007 – David Cameron produces another good speech which is the catylyst for a 3 year lead in the polls and has him on the verge of becoming Prime Minister.

    3. First Leadership Debate – Nick Clegg wins the first debate easily and this is the catylyst for an amazing 10% surge in the polls which dramatically snatches the keys of number 10 from David Cameron.

    This is worrying me a little. Are policy and substance now obsolete in our political process? This is crazy!!!!!

    Thus, we have 2 debates left and what will happen is anyones guess. I beleive that the English/Welsh public have stopped listening to Gordon Brown and whatever he does he is on a hiding to nothing. I thought he outperformed DC in the first debate, however most of the polls have shown otherwise. I think DC will come out on top in the other 2 debates and we will see another surge in the polls. I beleive this because DC performs better when he is up against it. However this prediction is just a feeling and comes with zero confidence.

  23. @Sue

    Step down? I’ve only just got myself off the floor! lol

    Crisis is over -only way is up ;-)

    (awaiting snidey remark by Paul) ;-)

  24. Interesting polls, wonder what YG will be tonight.

    AW is the release time for YG 8pm again?

  25. sorry I should use last name ”Paul Croft”

  26. ****Brown steps aside for Clegg***

    I’ve been considering this amazing election and what may be the post-election minority parliament negotiations: as we are now clearly on the road to that.

    I can see Brown offering to step aside for Clegg as PM of a Lib-Lab coalition.

    That way he stays as Labour leader for the 3-6 months its takes to organise and run a proper debated labour leadership election.

    It allows him to be a part of the major reforms that will take place both to the constitution and the voting system.

    It allows him to depart with dignity and honour with head held high at the dawn of a totally new era for UK politics.

  27. Poll for ITV Wales from I believe Yougov has

    Lab 33
    LD 29
    Con 23
    Plaid 9

  28. I was wondering the same Bill Roy, this waiting til ten is doing me in.

  29. Mark Senior, I really need to read more carefully – I thought you had tonight’s YouGov, I literally nearly fainted.

  30. Smarkets are giving these odds for the next chancellor after AD :-

    Ed Balls 25 to 1
    Jacqui Smith 5 to 1

    How crazy is that?

  31. @ Michael
    “I believe DC performs better when he is up against it.”

    The problem for DC is that he has never been up against it – until now.-
    In the debates his sound bites are time limited – that does not suit his style.

  32. @Mark senior or anyone else

    re: Wales

    what are the changes on 2005 and the changes on the last poll ??

  33. Angus Reid/Politicalbetting Apr 19 Apr 12
    CONSERVATIVES 32% 38%
    LIB DEMS 32% 22%
    LABOUR 24% 28%

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/

    Well if that’s AR’s angle – it’s game on!

  34. @Sue

    Have you not seen today’s Comres
    it is the best poll in a week for labour…?

  35. That is not true Obama poll numbers are 48.7% on RCP poll.try not to tell lies to make your piont.

  36. @Micaheal

    “However this prediction is just a feeling and comes with zero confidence.”

    I do wish some others predicting Tory surges (some on this thread right now) were as honest as you are.

  37. Rob Sheffield – I rarely disagree with you, but if Brown wins largest party (I sound like a broken record) he will have won a FOURTH term for Labour against all the odds, despite being around 20% behind in the polls for the best part of two years.
    If he goes anywhere I’ll eat my desk, and I won’t even order a chocolate one like Amber.
    I have never been the biggest Brown fan, but I for one would think it a travesty should anyone try to oust him.

  38. I notice that AR gives Labour almost an outright victory on AW’s calculator 227 318 73 32.

    Hmm!

  39. This does not both well for Plaid Cmyru:

    Compared to the last wales poll I have

    I have Labour -4%
    I have LD +17%
    I have blue -6%
    I have Plaid -5%

  40. Rob Sheffield –

    You really brighten up the moments waiting for the next poll data to come through, though I must admit your not as good as the Repugs who tried the same tactics numerous times.

    Keep me and I am sure others as well smilling whilst we wait. :)

  41. @Sue

    TBH I was thinking of the scenario where Labour are *not* the largest party but with Lib Dems they can still form a majority pact i.e. Brown as PM has first dibs on forming a coalition.

    What a gesture- especially as (at the moment) we are looking at LD’s over 30% and over 110 seats….

    If- after all this- Labour are still the largest party then clearly GB stays as PM (maybe on a short lease to a 2012 election).

  42. @ Percy Holmes

    I agree this is a different situation from the 2007 Tory conferency, however I wouldn’t put it past him to pull something out of the bag.

    @ Rob Sheffield

    :) I think my predictions are born out of fear and not wanting to get too excited like I did in 2007 ;)

    To be honest my whole point is I do not have a clue because this is an X Factor style election and the polls are proving it. This is worrying me.

  43. and Bill- pace latest Angus reid- I look forward to your unstinting resolute principled dogmatic 37-22-27 looking ever more absurd. Though not you.

    :-)

  44. @Howard,

    I think either a) Labour supporters have been told to deny it puts them in pole position or b) gordy/peter mandleson has stolen all their calculators…

    I can only see this going one way….

  45. @eoin

    “This does not both well for Plaid Cmyru:
    Compared to the last wales poll I have
    I have Labour -4%
    I have LD +17%
    I have blue -6%
    I have Plaid -5%”

    Did you see the welsh debate? Terrible performance by the Con representative- the rest a score draw I thought.

  46. @Howard

    “I notice that AR gives Labour almost an outright victory on AW’s calculator 227 318 73 32.

    Hmm!”

    If only it were that simple… I’d bin the models, bid adieu to UNS, this is going to be the most exciting and unique election in the history of this country, and all the frenzied talking up of every permutation is just evidence of that.

    There are so many *new* factors at play in this election, it would be an immensly complex task to extrapolate from any polls. If I were to bet on anything, it would be some of the most random and Balkanising results ever.

    Who knows, even Harriet Harman could get dumped out of her safe seat!… the only thing that is certain is that nothing is certain any more.

  47. Hello Everyone :o

    Well considering how things have gone this past few days AR looks quite good for the Conservatives and Labour way down on 24%

    This would surely give DC a small majority. :o

    And yes I’ve chose the AR poll because it suits my purpose just like some others on here have chosen the Comres Poll to suit their purpose :o

    My prediction for tonights YouGov Poll:

    Con 32/34

    LD 29/30

    Lab 25/26

    And long may it continue :o

  48. @PAUL CROFT

    “Lib Dem supporters more confident they don’t need to vote tactically”

    I think you may have hit a nail on the head there.

  49. @Rob,

    Nope….. have you seen the Comres.. Im astounded no1 has picked up on it…?

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