ICM’s latest Guardian poll is now out in the Guardian, and echoes the Lib Dem surge we’ve seen elsewhere. The topline figures are CON 33%(-1), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 30%(+3). Changes are from the previous ICM poll, which the Guardian describe as being conducted partially after the debate, but which was actually about 90% pre-debate.

Clegg remains in third place on most competent Prime Minister, 21% to Brown on 30% and Cameron on 32%, but he is seen as most more substanital and more honest than the other two leaders.

117 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – 33/28/30”

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  1. Anthony W

    “Clegg remains in third place on most competent Prime Minister, 21% to Brown on 30% and Cameron on 32%, but he is seen as most more substanital and more honest than the other two leaders.”

    Good point, but we could have done with a “However” at the start of this to emphasise its great significance.

  2. Labour’s current bronze medal is actually a gold one with little diamonds studded into it

  3. What are the previous best prime minister ratings?

    I don’t recall accurately but is not a 2% gap between Cameron and Brown is a closing

  4. In my post at the top of the page, I expect it was obvious that the ‘significant’ bit that needed ’emphasising’ was the fact that, in spite of Clegg’s apparent new celebrity status, he is still regarded as less competent to be Prime Minister than GB and DC – by some way.

  5. “What are the previous best prime minister ratings?

    I don’t recall accurately but is not a 2% gap between Cameron and Brown is a closing”

    I was just thinking the same! My impression had been that there was meant to be sizeable lead for cameron on this regardless of voting intention.

  6. @Amber

    Would like to do a PhD in Metaphysical Psephology at Edi but don’t think they’d have me. Maybe Queen’s?

  7. There has been a sizable lead for Cameron, but IIRC it’s been shrinking last few months.

  8. Angus Reid is out as well, Con 32 LD 32 Lab 24.

  9. Gap between red/blue continues to shrink… have AR ever had 8% before?

  10. It will be interesting to see how long or indeed if Clegg can sustain the support once Lib-Dem policy is properly scrutinised.


  11. I would have thought the Tories would be more worried about Cameron’s rating as potential PM than about the party figures (though they are bad enough). They have pinned their hopes on a strategy emphasising Cameron’s personal image which they thought would resonate in comparison with Brown’s unpopularity. If he is no longer an electoral asset, what do they have left?

  12. What this seems to indicate is that voters would in fact be fine with a Lab-Lib coalition, with Brown as PM…

  13. Hopefully by the time of the print edition the Guardian will realise that is the story with this poll.

    LD’s in lead is importmat of course but not new now.
    Can anyone help with numbers?

  14. Is this now the moment we can decide that whatever the result of the GE, the Tories will not have an overall majority?

  15. Jim Jam – I’m not certain it is a standard best pm question, they may have asked about lots of attributes including honestyn competent pm, etc

  16. @Fhnuzoag: Or Con-Lib…

  17. @Tom

    on the AR figures although ConCam largest party, still way short of maj and LD could do a deal with either to form coalition govt.

  18. What are the previous best prime minister ratings?

    I don’t recall accurately but is not a 2% gap between Cameron and Brown is a closing

    Yes it is, and Brown is the silent winner of the first debate (vs Cameron anyway)

  19. Apparently there is an all Wales opinion poll being released tonight. The Lib Dems are in second is all i know at the moment.

  20. @ MAC

    I agree

  21. On AR figures the others % have not changed. Is this not out of line with the other polls?

  22. @Eoin,

    With generous odds of 4-1 on Labour getting most seats over on betfair, and your absolute certainty they will, why don’t you put a large bet on?

    Just wondering…


  23. EOIN:

    Only other single digit Conservative lead over Labour was 9 points on 31/3/2010.

  24. @RobertC”Nick Clegg will stick it to the other two parties on Iraq and being enslaved to the US (always a Tory policy just as much as Labour) and the voters who care hugely about Europe are mostly voting for UKIP or are Tory core supporters anyway.

    With our European partners helping us out with our Volcano-hit travellers, working more closely with other countries looks like a winner, not a loser at this point. Also, Clegg is offering an in/out referendum on Europe.

    I predict that the Lib Dems will end up this week at 35-36%, Tories 29%, Labour 25%.”

    Did you actually watch the Foreign Secretaries Debate today before writing this?

  25. So just to summarise, the public think Clegg is the best thing since Churchill, but don’t want him as PM.

    Polls are wonderfully fickle at times.

  26. Conservatives will be relieved to at least have stemmed the tide in these two polls and 5% to 8% leads over Labour will also give them some very mild comfort. I thought Cameron today chose the right tactic in attacking Brown (rather than Clegg directly), by saying a vote for Clegg is a vote for Brown. Attacking Clegg too vociferously could be a mistake and he cannot control a continuing upsurge in LibDem support if that is the destiny of this election.

    Clegg stumbled a bit this morning when he said he would form a coalition with the “largest” party but refused to say whether that meant the largest party in terms of votes or in terms of seats. His side-stepping of a difficult question was inevitable but given his party’s committment to PR it would be difficult not to side with the party with the greater share of the national vote. Or would it?

  27. We all know that these polling companies are different. some we like some we dislike usually it has something to do with the lead they gave our favourite party. In rank order I have listed those as most favourable to the blue team. And low and behold there is a correlation with the ones I look forward to. As a general rule, stick with the ones in the middle. They happen to be ICm and YG so you wont go far wrong.

    AR 13.7
    ComRes 11.6
    Harris 9.4
    Opinium 9.4
    BPIX 8.6
    YG 8
    ICM 6.5
    Populus 5.3
    TNS 5
    IPSOS-MORI 4.8

  28. Others at 12% for Angus Reid is low by there trends – Others were 16-18 fairly recently

  29. Thanks Anthony but a 2% lead on the most competent PM for DC over G in a poll with a 5% Con lead suggests that GB has slightly more appeal beyond his own support than DC does.

    If I were the Gruniad I would run with this but thenj i am biased.
    You Gov will be interesting.

  30. Obama’s ratings are down round 30s (see real clear politics)

    Bush were 20s

    31% or 30% as it appears to be in this one is not quite as bad as it looks.

    Did I see Sarkozy’s was done remarkably low recently?

    Its a funny wee thing to measure really…

  31. What if the LibDems get a plurality of the vote? If they outpoll Labour by 7 or 8 points but get many fewer seats, who gets the mandate there? And would either main party accept a minority coalition position in order to have some influence in the government?

  32. @Richard O,

    thansk for updating the odds….

    I got £75 for Mickleson- I should be happy with that….

    I like the Idea of a disappointment bet though! I’m saving my money for Italy to win the world cup :)

  33. CON 32% LAB 28% LDEM 28%

    Can anybody confirm this? (Comres)

  34. Yakobs I posted this on the previous thread we have the same question.

    I think some journo will nail NC if numbers stay simiar as the GE approaches about the bigger mandate seats or votes.

    Both are credible and the answer may be seats but if the vote gap is too big may be not.
    Part of the PR argument is that in seats where votes don’t count (safe labour in particular) turnout is low hence PR addresses.
    It is intellectually credible to say that Lab have a mandate even with less vote as the lower vote comes in part from the FPTP system that ‘we (LDs)would change.

  35. Predictions for Tonights yougov.
    Mine is
    CON 33% +1, LAB 26% NC, LIB 31% -2 AND OTHERS 10 +1

  36. You Gov are all over the place so expect someone to be up a bit and someone down with the change largely reversed tomorrow! What we can say is that the Cons are just above 30%, Lab just under 30% and the LD about 30%!

  37. So!!

    *Even* on Angus Reid now Cameron- if Clegg picks him (and if Clegg has the most votes he can pick whoever he likes)- will have to give the Lib Dems electoral reform.

    No debate; no choice on these kinds of numbers.

    Indeed quite probably (as the mass of voters will be up in arms about the result the voting system provided) *without* a referendum but instead as part of a ‘great reform bill’ for the 21st Century.

    That finally means the UK falling into line with modern democracies in that NO party ever again will be able to govern by themselves as an ‘elected dictatorship’ as Hailsham once called the 1980’s Conservative governments.

  38. When polls accurately predict marginal voting, we might listen to them

    Until them, they are best ignored.

  39. Yakobs

    It is actually a pretty difficult question –

    1) He might prefer to go for most votes but who the Queen calls may automatically be the leader with largest number of MPs (bet the palace is in a tizz).

    2)Mathematically it is far from certain he has a choice of which party he could go with.

    3) He is desperate to avoid being seen to dictate to the electorate.

  40. Eoin Clarke
    @Richard O,

    thansk for updating the odds….

    I got £75 for Mickleson- I should be happy with that….

    I like the Idea of a disappointment bet though! I’m saving my money for Italy to win the world cup

    I’ll take Mickelson over Mandelson anyday. :-)

    Spain will win the World Cup, probably fairly comfortably if they avoid Brazil at altitude.

  41. Latest Comres

    Labour on 279 seats in Latest com Res…

    with 3 SDLP that gives them 282… 30-40 seats short of a majority…. just a little more and the SNP / PC come into play…

    I dare say YG will show a spike for Labour also…

  42. ComRes
    Con 32%
    Lab 28%
    Lib 28%

  43. @ Eoin Clarke

    On an aside, where have you found those Obama numbers on RCP? Even the most right-leaning pollsters have him in the upper 40s, and his average on RCP appears to be 48.

  44. The Comres figures seem to be based on a Twitter rumour started by Charlie Whelan

  45. @qunicel – “…the public think Clegg is the best thing since Churchill” – but was Churchill better than sliced bread?

    BTW – my captcha code for this post is FUKD – does this have a (not so) hidden meaning?

  46. If those comres figures are genuine, it’s MOE from the last one.

  47. Generation Why “in the area”:

    “Pro-Clegg facebook group reaches 100,000- Campaigners who beat Simon Cowell to the Christmas number one throw support behind Clegg.

    A pro-Liberal Democrat facebook group has reached 100,000 members in only a few days. The anti-establishment group aims to use the social networking site to propel the Liberal Democrats into power. The group was set up by the same individuals who organised the successful campaign to get Rage Against the Machine to Number 1 at Christmas, beating Simon Cowell’s X Factor winner”

    My ‘bandwagon-seeking’ students are going to love this ;-)

  48. I’m beginning to think that these polls are not just about the man Clegg or what the Liberal Dems have to offer regarding their manifesto.

    The electorate may have found a way of sticking the middle finger up in revenge over the way MP’s have conducted themselves over expenses.

    Mixing it all up this way …they could be having the last laugh! Nothing would be more uncomfortable behind the scenes for all these politicians than a hung parliament compared to a nice cosy majority.

    Rage against the machine!

  49. @Ash,

    How did you confirm them mate?

  50. Com Res Tories 32% Lab 28% Lib 28%. Lab biggest party 279 seats Tories 245. Maj of Lib voters prefer pact with Lab.

    Labour is blazing their way to a majority. LD bubble bursting?

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