ICM’s latest Guardian poll is now out in the Guardian, and echoes the Lib Dem surge we’ve seen elsewhere. The topline figures are CON 33%(-1), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 30%(+3). Changes are from the previous ICM poll, which the Guardian describe as being conducted partially after the debate, but which was actually about 90% pre-debate.

Clegg remains in third place on most competent Prime Minister, 21% to Brown on 30% and Cameron on 32%, but he is seen as most more substanital and more honest than the other two leaders.

117 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – 33/28/30”

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  1. Michael

    To be honest my whole point is I do not have a clue because this is an X Factor style election and the polls are proving it. This is worrying me.


    your right, and Clegg’s the best looking, which probably helps aswell.

    I wonder if in a few years time, the party leaders might have to perform a sing off.

  2. @Eoin Clarke


    Have you not seen today’s Comres
    it is the best poll in a week for labour…?

    I would say Saturday’s yougov of C-33 L-30 LD-29 was better.

    Are you still sticking to your May 6th prediction Eion ?
    There would have to be some shift in the next 16 days ?

  3. @Colin Green: I’m not sure there has been much tactical voting by LibDems. TV has been mostly anti-Tory Labourites.

  4. Sorry – Eoin !!

  5. According to figures for Wales presented

    Con, Lab, LD, PC, Oth
    21 43 18 13 5 2005 %
    3 30 4 2 1 2005 seats

    23 33 29 9 6 2010 %
    7 23 5 4 1 2010 seats

  6. With about a third of the electorate (and probably quite a bit more of the voterate) having postal votes, and PVs going out at the end of this week, the LibDem surge only has to last another few days to have a lasting effect on the outcome of the election, even if it subsides by the time of polling day.

    With such a high proportion of voters having postal votes, in reality we have two polling days, postal (the 48 hours after they’re dispatched when most people who are going to use them will use them) and polling station.

    I do find the Welsh poll a tad tricky to believe – given that you weigh the Plaid vote in parts of the West of Wales, it would require next to no-one to vote for them elsewhere in the country for them to do so badly across the country.

  7. @Richard

    “our posts go from the sublime to the ridiculous.
    Labour are hardly blazing their way to a majority on 28%! They have widened to 28-1 to get a majority on betfair!!!!!!!!!!
    Most seats, yes, that’s an outside possibility now.”

    The majority in seats is the one that really counts under this system, and yes i agree with Eion, these numbers favor the reds against the blues. Obviously the yellows are raving over these but its a moral victory they can aspire to and not an electoral one. With these numbers reds seem much closer to an electoral victory and the blues seem in the wilderness.

  8. Andrew,

    Absolutely I am!

    YG’s was good correct…. but it was hastily followed by another, well not so good one.

    :) :) :)

  9. I notice much of the polling for the big Yougov poll showing the regional variations was carried out pre debate the Lib Dem figures certainly appear to be in line with a couple of their pre debate figures

    The poll was carried out between the 11th to 18th apparently

  10. The Murdoch Dynamic

    Rupert is getting old, time is ticking and a while ago he decided it was time his son took more control.

    Now, Daddy Murdoch rather likes Brown – he admires his Presbyterian caution and prudence. (His words). He doesn’t like Cameron, thinks he is too smooth by far and lacking substance. (His words again)

    Now Baby Murdoch is good friends with DC and for quite some time has been a regular at table in Notting Hill. Baby Murdoch convinced Daddy Murdoch to side with the Tories, but he didn’t really like it. He DID however like the cut-throat nastiness of announcing it just after GBs conference speech (he likes a coup), so he gave Baby Murdoch the benefit of the doubt.

    To add to the dynamic, Daddy Murdoch ADORES Baby Murdoch and indulges him.

    When the first voter intention polls came in after the debate showing such a drop for the Tories, Sky News ripped DC to shreds AND rounded on the Sun for not carrying unfavourable polls to the Tories more prominently.

    I sense very interesting times at Murdoch empires and would not rule out a last minute switch. Remember, the Sun pride themselves on getting it right.

    What will win the paternal pride or the business nose?

  11. In many ways we’ve already had the biggest political cock-up of this campaign – just that it was last year when Cameron challenged Brown to debate and then agreed to allow Nick Clegg in on the act.

    Cameron may rue this decision all the way to job centre after May 6th

  12. The Comres figures are not on their website yet, though everyone seems to be quoting them! Things possibly at least stabilising though.

  13. Eoin Clarke
    “Com Res Tories 32% Lab 28% Lib 28%. Lab biggest party 279 seats Tories 245. Maj of Lib voters prefer pact with Lab.”

    Eoin – does this not imply that more potential Labour or left-leaning votes are being lost to the Lib’s than from the Tories ?
    I would have thought that most Con to Lib Dem switchers would prefer to see the Tories form some part of the next govt ?

  14. Al J: Droll/witty -yes please. Snidey ?? Not me.

    Sue: Tres interesant [france back on again]

    Mais —who was it ate the porridge? I await the next instalment before it’s my bedtime.

  15. Andrew H
    You didn’t ask me but….
    We need more analysing questions to switchers. These are not forthcoming. What about false recall? What about unconscious switching. If you are a pleb who swallowed all the guff about ditherer bottler brown and the rest, served up daily by the press for two solid years, or perhaps a relative is a victim of the recession, then you go with the seemingly bright new kid who is portrayed every week in a clip making GB look like a grumpy old sour puss.

    Then the relative gets a job, and another shiny new kid on the block appears.

    I haven’t the faintest idea whether any of the above has truth but neither have the pollsters at the moment.

    Remember, elections are not decided by people who are interested in politics. Just image.

  16. To my eyebrow-raising surprise the only women who told me they were switching today (‘that nice man’) were middle aged women whom I had down as hard Tory in one case and soft in the second.

    I have never known such a phenomenon in 13 years of canvassing. I wrote in my last post ‘image’. Perhaps it is, who knows?

    As I say a few polls on the subject would help immensely. I read that private polling is taking place on precisely this subject.

  17. Soft Labour in some areas switching to LibDem to stop a tory landslide. At the same time soft Tory switching to LibDem in some areas to stop a Labour recovery.

    Undecideds seeing a sudden jump in LibDems jump on as well because they want to ride the wave.

    Who will blink first?

    Postal votes this week. More likely to be Labour and soft Labour than Tory. Most will vote straight away and return them. Therefore the tories can recover their soft vote, Labour’s will have already voted LibDem.

    Strange days indeed.

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