Tonight’s YouGov poll shows the Lib Dem boost continuing. The topline figures are CON 32%(-1), LAB 26%(-3), LDEM 33%(+4), so following on from BPIX yesterday we now have YouGov putting the Lib Dems in the lead. The 32% is the lowest the Conservatives have been with YouGov since the election-that-never-was in 2007, 26% is the lowest Labour have been since the Conservative party conference boost last year.

The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday, so with the “Lib Dem breakthrough” dominating the media and the election narrative. It’s quite hard to guess what is going to happen next – on one hand the Lib Dems are likely to face a concerted attack from the other parties and hostile newspapers, on the other hand if they stay at this level there will be a snowballing effect of them being seen to be on a roll, the Lib Dem’s normal weaknesses of being seen as a wasted vote will be whittled away, and if the two main parties start focusing their fire upon the Lib Dems it may well backfire by making them seem negative and the Lib Dems as the real challenger.


840 Responses to “YouGov show Liberal Democrats ahead”

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  1. @Wolf,

    Since the campaign began the Tories had lost 4.2% of the vote.

    Since the campaign began the Reds have lost 0.3% of the vote.

    Since the campaign began the Yellows have gained 6.3%

    The gap has gone from 9% to 5% and is falling at an accelerated rate.

    If one prefers just the post debate polls then it is

    32% Blue
    28% Red
    30% Yellow

    which would equate to a 6.4% drop for blue, a 1.7% drop for red and a 10.7% climb for yellow.

    I expect this 4% gap between red and blue to continue to narrow. I only ever thought it would narrow at about 1.2% a week. So far it seems to narrow at double that rate… If the narrowing continued liek that the Reds would probably overtake blue and finish as the largest party.

    But I would caution agaisnt that, I think blue are sure to claw back some yellow.

    either way the poor yellows are like the North Sea fisherman, I have visions of them turfing sradines back into the sea as we speak…. they have exceed their quota…

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  2. .BT:
    Yes, I got the joke….
    , but how many people look down on the young, and criticse them.
    Since they are the future their decision will influence ours…

    Do not underestimate them, they may know what they are doing.
    Sense of humour, can you see the irony?

    And thanks, since I have worked i very hard in education I do admire the improvement made in State education in the last 13 years..
    P

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  3. @Pam F,

    Ach I am sorry if I offended. having never voted myself and just left my 20s behind more of it was tongue and cheek than you would think.

    Perhaps I swallowed to much of Nick Robinsons blog….

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  4. @Eoin
    exceeded their quota – yes! My thoughts exactly. Before the debate the LD vote was strenghtening nicely for them – up to 27 I think just pre-debate. The Clegg boost is a nightmare for them as it is too much too soon. Thus Cleggs desperate attempt to play it down “Too early to second-guess how people will vote” he said. Having observed their By-Election stategy from the inside in the 80s, I can tell you they will be thinking of every ruse to dampen their advance down for a week or so to come. They may even settle for a small dip in order to create a new surge after the third debate.

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  5. Why is it that everyone is assuming that either young people or DKs won’t be able to vote because they aren’t registered?
    The vast majority of people are registered. They just don’t bother to go and vote. Usually.

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  6. EOIN: I appreciated your post was tongue in cheek, I was teasing too…in reply.
    No offence was made.

    I am however impressed with the young generation becoming increasingly interested in politics and believing they can make an influence.

    It reminds me of youth myself, if you can’t belive you can put the world right when you’re young, when can you? I do enjoy your and other posts on here. My daughters’ generation is teaching me a thing or two about politics. I don’t know yet what we will all learn over the next two weeks or so.

    P

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  7. AR has brought an AR poll.

    C 32 – LD 32 – Lab 24.

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  8. Angus Reid/Apr 19 Apr 12
    CON 32% 38%
    L_D 32% 22%
    LAB 24% 28%

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  9. @Pam F,

    It can only be a good thing that is true. My only worry is with all the american TV they watch will they end up with some barmy system were looks, money and lobbying mean more……

    Gordon Brown is the best politician Britain has had since Gladstone and I fear the youngsters would kick him to touch because he aint cute…

    otherwise youth engagement is good.

    my * year old son made the 6 o’clock news by staging an anti-George Bush protest in Belfast. He was holding a arab flag aloft when a group of armed special ops thought he was a threat to national security..

    He was six at the time…

    he started late in my opinion, I helped fundraise for the 1983 Westminster elections…

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  10. @PamF

    “.BT:
    Yes, I got the joke….
    , but how many people look down on the young, and criticse them.
    Since they are the future their decision will influence ours…”

    well first it wasa joke: but if you work with the 18-22 year olds of “generation why” everyday then you will know that- like all good jokes- there was a smidgeon of truth in the comment…. ;-)

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  11. Eoin:

    You are very selective with your stats.

    LD go UP 6 points in a poll mainly conducted before the first debate, for an organisation that had them ludicrously low, and it’s “Oh, that’s the same as [choose historical date].”

    On the other hand you tell us that it’s the movement, not the totals that matter.

    You’d make a jolly good politician.

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  12. Éoin: I don’t believe you were joking. You generally display a low opinion of the common man, which is odd for hard leftie.

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  13. @Pam F,

    It can only be a good thing that is true. My only worry is with all the american TV they watch will they end up with some barmy system were looks, money and lobbying mean more……

    Gordon Brown is the best politician Britain has had since Gladstone and I fear the youngsters would kick him to touch because he aint cute…

    otherwise youth engagement is good.

    my 8 year old son made the 6 o’clock news by staging an anti-George Bush protest in Belfast. He was holding a arab flag aloft when a group of armed special ops thought he was a threat to national security..

    He was six at the time…

    he started late in my opinion, I helped fundraise for the 1983 Westminster elections…

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  14. Frm the sounds of it what the YouGov London poll does confirm is that the LD vote was stengthening rapidly BEFORE the debate. The national one went up to 27 before the debate, and now this London one by +6%. So, whilst all the media, and many of us for that matter, have pinned it on Clegg’s performance – perhaps most of it was created by the trumpeted LD manifesto commitment to a £10,000 personal allowance before tax? Clegg just added a +3% flourish on top? Has anyone spotted this?

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  15. Eoin, on the basis that you are a) on this site 24/7 and b) prone to making provocative predictions that run counter to the apparent trends, can we assume that we are all unwittingly taking part in your next research project into “Online Herd Behaviour – the hermeneutics of political blogging”?

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  16. PAM F

    No offence meant and thank you for your hard work in education sector these last 13 years!

    (Although not sure employers taking on young people would agree with your view that things have improved in the state sector overall in the last 13 years)

    Incidentally, it is nearly 13 years since my schooldays finished!

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  17. Would anyone like to have a bet with me over my continuing prediction that the combined Conservative / UKIP vote will be larger than the combined Labour / LD vote?

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  18. @Amber
    Can you steady my nerves please? AR is ;-(

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  19. woodsman
    (Standing in for Richard O)

    Current odds on Betfair

    NOM 4/6
    Tory Maj 15/8
    Lab Maj 26/1
    LD Maj 43/1

    Most seats market
    Tory 1/3
    Lab 4/1
    LD 20/1
    ******************************************************

    Thanks Woodsman!

    Still looks good value that 4-1 for Labour, so I am tempted to go against all my values and place a disappointment bet on this!

    I do have a funny feeling the Con polls might pick up this week. Can’t say why yet.

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  20. @Paul

    Libs got 22% in those seats in 2005..
    this just has them at the same level..
    Remeber YG had Libs 27% before the debate

    @derek,

    Not much I can say. Unbefitting of a response.

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  21. Rob: I work with 14-16 year olds mainly, and my daughters are all over 28 and quite political.

    Sure there may be a whiff of truth it.. I know that… everyone has to learn, but aren’t we suppose to help and inform.. and not ridicule?

    Think I’m going off topic,.. when are the polls coming out tonight,, though what they wil tell us, anyone knows! or not?

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  22. Leslie,

    I am very sorry you find them provocative. I will endeavor to be extra nice in how I put things….. :) :)

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  23. @Eoin
    “Gordon Brown is the best politician Britain has had since Gladstone”

    Nice to see you maintaining your non-partisan line then!

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  24. Angus Reid:

    Con 32%
    Lab 24%
    LibDem 32%

    Lowest conservative share from Angus Reid that I recall. I would have expected Angus Reid to put Labour at 20 by now.

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  25. Oh give me a poll – After 814 posts on this thread I’m getting withdrawal symptoms!

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  26. There’s a new thread…..

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  27. AL J,

    I’m not Amber, but how’s this:

    LD +10
    Lab -4
    Con -6

    So who has lost out more badly?

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  28. @Eoin

    I’d have put smilies on if I could figure out how to do so!

    Seriously, how do you find the time to do this *and* have a life? I struggle to keep up!

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  29. @Eoin,

    “Gordon Brown is the best politician Britain has had since Gladstone”

    ??

    Coming late to this debate as just finished work. I am therefore assuming with enormous certainty this is tongue in cheek!

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  30. Eoin,

    I too enjoy your posts, I always get a good laugh, but “congratulations to GB on winning a 4th term for Labour” is absolute insanity!

    With 2 debates and a full 2 weeks of campaigning anything can happen.

    Congratulations to the SNP for winning 20 seats in Scotland (ahem- yes)

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  31. Angus Reid figures are interestingly beginning to fall in line with the rest. Others still high at 12%. FWIW in seats:

    Con 260
    Lab 216
    L/D 141
    Oth 33

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  32. @Mitz
    Thank you Mitz. Thinking about it , AR always give Labour the lowest % so the shock is hopefully over. ;-)

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  33. So!!

    *Even* on Angus Reid now Cameron- if Clegg picks him (and if Clegg has the most votes he can pick whoever he likes)- will have to give the Lib Dems electoral reform.

    No debate; no choice on these kinds of numbers.

    Indeed quite probably (as the mass of voters will be up in arms about the result the voting system provided) *without* a referendum but instead as part of a ‘great reform bill’ for the 21st Century.

    That finally means the UK falling into line with modern democracies in that NO party ever again will be able to govern by themselves as an ‘elected dictatorship’ as Hailsham once called the 1980’s Conservative governments.

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  34. ComRes
    Con 32%
    Lab 28%
    Lib 28%

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  35. Generation Why “in the area”:

    “Pro-Clegg facebook group reaches 100,000- Campaigners who beat Simon Cowell to the Christmas number one throw support behind Clegg.

    A pro-Liberal Democrat facebook group has reached 100,000 members in only a few days. The anti-establishment group aims to use the social networking site to propel the Liberal Democrats into power. The group was set up by the same individuals who organised the successful campaign to get Rage Against the Machine to Number 1 at Christmas, beating Simon Cowell’s X Factor winner”

    My ‘bandwagon-seeking’ students are going to love this ;-)

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  36. Eoin:

    Ergo AR were underestimating their position earlier and therefore may well be doing the same.

    It’s you, not me, who keeps saying “follow the trend.”

    I am.

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  37. I am worried about the way this election is going! In fact it is following a trend for about 5 years. 3 key events in the last 5 years is set to define this election and it will probably be 5 by the time May 6th comes along.

    1. Tory Conference 2005 – David Cameron comes from nowhere to defeat the hot favourite David Davis who done nothing wrong but deliver a bad speech.

    2. Tory Conference 2007 – David Cameron produces another good speech which is the catylyst for a 3 year lead in the polls and has him on the verge of becoming Prime Minister.

    3. First Leadership Debate – Nick Clegg wins the first debate easily and this is the catylyst for an amazing 10% surge in the polls which dramatically snatches the keys of number 10 from David Cameron.

    This is worrying me a little. Are policy and substance now obsolete in our political process? This is crazy!!!!!

    Thus, we have 2 debates left and what will happen is anyones guess. I beleive that the English/Welsh public have stopped listening to Gordon Brown and whatever he does he is on a hiding to nothing. I thought he outperformed DC in the first debate, however most of the polls have shown otherwise. I think DC will come out on top in the other 2 debates and we will see another surge in the polls. I beleive this because DC performs better when he is up against it. However this prediction is just a feeling and comes with zero confidence.

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  38. I’m 28 this year, but this is only the second time I’ll have voted. This is the first general election I’ll have voted in.

    I know very little about politics, but what I do know is that it’s time for some real change, Labour and Conservative have had their chance.

    This country is a complete mess.

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  39. Has anyone tried the website myvoteadvisor.com? i just gave it a go and got the following results:
    COnservative 43%
    Liberal Democrats 40%
    UKIP36%
    Green Party 35%
    Labour 25%
    BNP 18%
    Interesting especially as i expected to vote Lib Dem!
    Didn’t take very long and i thin you could answer half the questions in half the time and still get accurate results.
    What does everyone else think of it?

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  40. @ ADAM VANTAGE
    thank you!!!
    great tool my friends also love it

    my results:

    Labour 69%
    Conservative 67%
    Green Party 67%
    Liberal Democrats 65%
    UKIP 43%
    BNP 42%

    Report comment

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