YouGov’s daily poll tonight has toplines of CON 33%(nc), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 29%(-1). Labour are back into second place, but there isn’t really any significant change from yesterday, it’s just random sample error between the polls and while the parties remain this close we should expect to see some with the Lib Dems last, some with them first.
| 31 | 42 | 10 |
 | 9 May | 31 | 44 | 9 | Lab +13 |
| 8 May | 31 | 44 | 8 | Lab +13 |
 | 7 May | 30 | 43 | 10 | Lab +13 |
| 4 May | 31 | 43 | 9 | Lab +12 |
| 3 May | 32 | 41 | 9 | Lab +9 |
| 2 May | 33 | 43 | 8 | Lab +10 |
| 1 May | 32 | 41 | 9 | Lab +9 |
| 30 Apr | 35 | 42 | 8 | Lab +7 |
 | 30 Apr | 32 | 39 | 8 | Lab +7 |
 | 27 Apr | 30 | 37 | 13 | Lab +7 |
 | 27 Apr | 34 | 39 | 10 | Lab +5 |
| 27 Apr | 29 | 40 | 11 | Lab +11 |
| 26 Apr | 31 | 43 | 9 | Lab +12 |
| 25 Apr | 32 | 43 | 9 | Lab +11 |
| 24 Apr | 32 | 43 | 8 | Lab +11 |
| 23 Apr | 32 | 45 | 8 | Lab +13 |
| 23 Apr | 31 | 38 | 11 | Lab +7 |
 | 23 Apr | 35 | 38 | 12 | Lab +3 |
 | 22 Apr | 33 | 41 | 15 | Lab +8 |
| 20 Apr | 33 | 41 | 11 | Lab +8 |
| 19 Apr | 34 | 40 | 11 | Lab +6 |
| 19 Apr | 32 | 45 | 8 | Lab +13 |
| 18 Apr | 32 | 41 | 10 | Lab +9 |
| 17 Apr | 32 | 41 | 8 | Lab +9 |
| 16 Apr | 32 | 37 | 9 | Lab +5 |
Go and see the story on Sky News where Gordon Brown thinks he only lost on presentation and style – in that pic, he looks like a villain from an Austin Powers movie.
Do I get sin-binned now?
Rob Sheffield
v interesting idea. But I think a counterfactual too far. I dont see the tories doing it and I dont think it would work, although I wont rule out that it couldn’t . The Tories have never made such a pledge before. Although hostile to the EU on many levels how many are genuinely for leaving it? The majority I don’t doubt, but a significant minority would balk at the prospect. Many powerful pro-Tory interests support membership, eg many of those business leaders who signed the NI letter
There would also be enough time for a potential Ken Clarke (“The only likable tory”) resignation blasting the Tories for putting the country through an unnecessary and bruising debate at the wrong time for pure political gain. The headline being on election day, “Tories in disarray on Europe over 11th hour bid to win majority”, I dont know if voters will flock to polling booths for that one, even if they dont like EU, I think most would dismiss it as desperate at best, down right dangerous at worst to make major policy announcements on the eve of the election. The Tory Deux ex Machina it aint IMHO. Its even debatable whether they will require one, 17 days is a long time in politics.
Brownedov – my thought’s are that it simply isn’t true at all!
Firstly, neither those VI or those question were anything to do with polling for newspapers or publication. Secondly I’ve brought the poll up on the system now to double check, and voting intention was the first question as it should have been. The other questions were right at the end of the political section of the poll, as they should have been.
I’m not involved in Scottish polling, but I believe the Scotland on Sunday polls are bespoke ones, the figures based on the aggregate of Scottish data from the daily polls in the Scottish edition of the Sun (thought both are weighted to the same targets so they should be directly comparable, the only real difference will be that Scotland on Sunday will have shorter fieldwork dates)
Sue Marsh what on earth are you saying?
Please leave master Dave alone he knows what he’s
doing and my kids are looking forward to being
£140000 better off when I’m no longer
Rob S
I don’t know whether you noticed but the Lisbon treaty is now law. That was the LD promise. The Con promise was to have a referendum on the event after the fact and take the consequences (withdrawal). That’s the promise that was broken.
If I were DC I would be very careful about starting down that road as Eoin, possibly with a twinkle in his eye, advises.
X-factor
interesting times
all to play for
Crikey, Anthony, you must be on a permanent cliché antidote.
On the subject of X-factor, I would humbly submit it is sincerity and credibility. Even economists (or the markets) can’t agree on the right policy, so electors are looking to delegate their responsibility to someone they can trust, despite a couple of centuries of evidence that they will be disappointed.
@Eoin
“I knew what Charlie was all about but this character makes Cameron look like an ideologue”
Charlie had it easy- the open goal of the Blair-Bush war.
By that I mean the war on Iraq: Afghanistan was to dislodge/ decapitate a bunch of totalitarian medieval pirates who had declared war on the west in general and US specifically. Though in retrospect more covert means to do that are probably the better strategy as opposed to the asymmetric warfare that we are engaged in.
LD votes shares went up only after the Iraq nonsense.
You don’t think Clegg would have taken the same positions as Charlie given the Iraq open goal ?
Our parties are coalitions (even the LD’s) and that is mainly because of the electoral system.
The TV / x factor age and the fact that parties are coalitions means the Blairite/ Cameronite/ Cleggite approach to policy presentation surely has to be the sensible one i.e. keep it vague/ have one or two USPs and a short catchy list.
Robert C
“Sorry to rain on your parade, but the in out referendum is already Lib Dem policy”
Yes, but the L-D lady was very woolly on that in the Sky debate. If they made it an immediate firm commitment to be held at the same time as the electoral reform referendum, would UKIP treat L-D candidates as “good guys“, I wonder?
@Howard
So the LD’s don’t have a promise in their manifesto to hold a referendum on withdrawal from the European Union after the 2010 general election?
That was the assertion @robertC made that I was correcting.
@Dom
On balance I think you are right and they won’t make the EU withdrawal promise because I think they’d have to be below 30% to do so and I don’t think they will be there. But that is just a personal prediction on sunday 18th May
Anthony
Please can you tell me what polls are due tonight . Is the marginal’s poll out soon? Thanks
MAY ?????????
I mean Marc, er April
Time for me to do something else today me thinks !
Anthony Wells,
Many thanks for the response. I’ll look forward to downloading the SoS PDF tomorrow.
So…does anyone want to try and predict the next set of polls or have we all been burned enough?
For what its worth:
Con: 32
LD: 31
Lab: 30
but realistically the polls could say anything.
I think Cameron has a very tough problem in dealing with the Lib Dems. For Brown, it’s easy – possibly forseeing this, he staked his entire campaign on the economy. On the face of it an odd choice, but extremely wise. He will just continue to bang on about withdrawing £6b this year and threatening the recovery. For Cameron, he must fight on two fronts. Attacking the Lib dems on the EU, crime and immigration is a huge risk – how can he do this without awakening the old Tory look? I don’t buy Eoin’s theories – apart from having many inconsistencies in his own policies the image risk is great. Cosying up to Clegg a la Brown would now look desperate.
If next weeks economic numbers look good, Labour could well stabilise or even increase slightly. Cameron will probably struggle in the next two debates – inpromptu isn’t his strong point – stylised delivery of pre scripted stuff is his forte and the visible look of discomfort he carried for most of Thursday night reminded me of the famous Gay TV interview. Policy wise the issues are even greater. Huge poll shifts like these 18 days out from a GE don’t happen – by now parties should have locked in their supporters with only the ground operation to get turnout being the final variable. We’ve seen an astonishing softness in Tory support (and a lesser extent Labour’s) and I can imagine something close to panic at CCHQ. We’re post manifestos – no more rabbits to pull from hats and real trouble for them on the doorsteps.
@EoinClarke
“Just think, this day last week 8 eejits predicted a Tory majority.”
—
@ Alec
Over at Conservative Home they are putting on the brown trousers right now.
EOIN- “Just think, this day last week 8 eejits predicted a Tory majority.”
Lol!! So they did. It feels like a lifetime ago. I read week magazine earlier – it might as well have been written about a different country
@Alec 2:33 pm
just before logging off I read your post.
IMHO the best overall analysis of where we are now (on debate1 plus 3 days) so far
Al J – last Monday there was only YouGov in the Sun, so I don’t think anything is “due”. Obviously others could crop up, but Sunday night doesn’t tend to produce many polls.
Greengrass…
Who is to say these eejits may not still be right….?
Still say there will be some scratchin of head and VERY red faces on here come 7th May…
Have a pleasant afternoon everyone…I’m off to the pub.
@RobertC
“Cameron begins to foam at the mouth about immigrants and Europe.”
—
DC is not the only Tory. Listen to what others are saying already.
@Sue
Please will you have a look at Anthony’s front page Latest UNS Projection. It’s the first time since I’ve been visiting the site (since last October) that it gives ”Labour Short” as opposed to ”Con short or Con Majority”. That is a huge change. Don’t you think so too? Thanks
Thanks Anthony -I am eagerly awaiting tonights YG.
@Rob,
Would NC have run a manfiesto on putting up taxes?
Charlie was legendary…..
YG prediciton for tonight
35/30/27
@ 1 p.m.
Still finding most posters considering Con strategy in isolation. This is now a 3-and-a-bit-player chess game with others hanging around making background noises and you have to take into account what *everyone* is going to do – and that applies both to the debates and the outcome.
Sorry – forgot the IMHO
Eoin:
I think referring to your fellow posters as “eejits” is a bit —um..well..”savage” I suppose. [speshly on a Sunday].
However, my boys are winning 2-o at Wigan so, as Bootsie, of Bootsie and Snudge used to say [very wisely[
“N’er mind, ay?”
@ Éoin, Sue, AL J
Next GE, the Indie will be asking for Amber’s Crystal Ball Prediction instead of the 8 leading pollsters.
ROFLMAO at MOJ (My own joke)
Lord, I get more irritating with every post…. I will post this – but thereafter I shall build a bridge & get over myself
Eoin:
I think that, in this new world order, your predictions need parties attached.
I assume you mean LD 35 though?
@Paul,
I did not refer to other posters as eejits.
I am sorry you missed you flight to France but need to calm yourself.
I was referring to the 8 pollsters last sunday in the Indy.
Also eejit is a failry affection term certainly not savage.
Amber
LOL
Amber:
Yes, that was hilarious [for a girl anyway]
I did commend your insight at the time but I don’t think anyone has any insight on the specifics any more.
Have you adjusted for the new world order yet?
@paul
•Irish slang term meaning idiot or stupid person. comes from misproununciation of Idiot
Sunbeam “Gordon has never shown that he is a fighter who is able to withstand attempts to dethrone him. ”
What’s the colour of the sky where you are?
@ Anthony
I bet BEN is wishing he hadn’t come on here & corrected what he said to the Indie.
If he’d kept quiet, he’d be looking like the smartest guy right now……….
There’s a new thread for those who are unaware
Eoin:
You need to calm down je pense. [French still molto fluent despite flight probs]
I was making what I likes to call “a joke”.
By the way that’s the second time you’ve told me to calm down after I’d typed and posted with great calmness. Please stop it.
@Old NAT – “Nick Cleggs says the other parties are to blame for the MP scandals, he has taken money from a criminal on the run, many of his MPs have been found guilty of breaking the rules and his own party issued guidance on how to fiddle the expenses system?”
I’d say that was fairly direct!
There were some 17 other questions re the LD”
After yesterday’s poll’s leading questions on the SNP, it’s beginning to look as if YouGov has simply become a partisan campaigning tool for Murdoch.”
Is that really true? That’s terrible. I’d wondered myself, but surely a company like YouGov wouldn’t lead to that degree? Would they?
@Paul Croft
**Yes, that was hilarious [for a girl anyway]**
Ouch!
You are on dodgy ground – the triplets will gang up on you if you misbehave
Eoin:
not only was I calm buut I know what “eejit” means. I’m not an eejit you know.
Actually your translation did make it appear more savage than in original Irish.
@Paul
Perhaps it is a cultural thing but your cockney abrasiveness grates on my Celtic charm.
@ PAUL
The Crystal predicted for post debate 1:
CON 1 point ahead of LAB & 2 points ahead of LD.
I translated this into:
CON 32
LAB 31
LD 30
That prediction is in the archives of all these UKPR threads somewhere.
I laughed at the Crystal when it predicted this. I am no longer laughing at it
@Sue (2.11)
Sue, I read most of your posts yesterday and can confirm that even as a devout Lab supporter you were most supportive of the Lib Dem surge and the likelihood of a furure PR system.
While there is no denying where your support lies you have always been most fair
When I look into Amber’s Crystal Ball – I see
Con 32
Lab 31
LD 30
Oh look – it’s the same as her’s.
@ Sue Marsh (2.15)
I assume from AW’s reply at 2.15 that the YouGov question was in a private poll (presumably for the Tories or some associated group) to see how this line of attack would go down.
Very well with the libel lawyers judging from some of the replies above.
The question was also asked after voting intention was established so it wasn’t an attempt to change that.
Did my own poll today on door steps near Pontypridd while delivering Conservative leaflets in the Pontypridd consituency. Majority voted labour in 2005 that we asked only5% sed they would vote labour again while majority said conservatives because they want change and dislike brown and some but not asuch said clegg but looking bad for labour in Wales with a recent poll showing 12% swing to conservatives in Wales since 05
Richard,
Your last post should be on the Pontypridd thread on the constituency part of this site.
Even if statistical accurate (properly weighted etc) it cannot be translated as a comment on national polls.
BTW – keep up the good work on the ground – it is how elections are won – not by speculation on teh blogosphere.
It’s all very well attacking the “eight pollsters” for being wrong (and of course they’re not technically wrong yet…) but can anyone hear, including Amber, point me to a prediction they made about the polls that included the LibDems going above 30% and taking the lead in one of the polls?
The pollsters may be wrong. So were all of us. There is no “I told you so” here. I bet Clegg is as gobsmacked as anyone else at what has happened.
Seriously, chaps, this site has become a pretty unpleasant place again. Labour supporters are positively cock a hoop at how they will benefit from FPTP. There is almost no measure to the thing’s people are saying. No recognition that we are in new territory and we really, truthfully don’t know what happens next. All of the crunching of the past 12 months poll numbers doesn’t give us any clues, frankly. All we can really do is sit and wait. I’d appreciate it if people could at least be civil in the meantime, and restrain some of the LibLab reacharounds that are going on at the moment.
GB is looking more confident and relaxed and in his (note-free) addresses over past 3 days post TV debate. He is exuding the authority and passion, not to mention grasp of key issues, that should see him remain in No 10.