YouGov’s daily poll tonight has toplines of CON 33%(nc), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 29%(-1). Labour are back into second place, but there isn’t really any significant change from yesterday, it’s just random sample error between the polls and while the parties remain this close we should expect to see some with the Lib Dems last, some with them first.
| 31 | 42 | 10 |
 | 9 May | 31 | 44 | 9 | Lab +13 |
| 8 May | 31 | 44 | 8 | Lab +13 |
 | 7 May | 30 | 43 | 10 | Lab +13 |
| 4 May | 31 | 43 | 9 | Lab +12 |
| 3 May | 32 | 41 | 9 | Lab +9 |
| 2 May | 33 | 43 | 8 | Lab +10 |
| 1 May | 32 | 41 | 9 | Lab +9 |
| 30 Apr | 35 | 42 | 8 | Lab +7 |
 | 30 Apr | 32 | 39 | 8 | Lab +7 |
 | 27 Apr | 30 | 37 | 13 | Lab +7 |
 | 27 Apr | 34 | 39 | 10 | Lab +5 |
| 27 Apr | 29 | 40 | 11 | Lab +11 |
| 26 Apr | 31 | 43 | 9 | Lab +12 |
| 25 Apr | 32 | 43 | 9 | Lab +11 |
| 24 Apr | 32 | 43 | 8 | Lab +11 |
| 23 Apr | 32 | 45 | 8 | Lab +13 |
| 23 Apr | 31 | 38 | 11 | Lab +7 |
 | 23 Apr | 35 | 38 | 12 | Lab +3 |
 | 22 Apr | 33 | 41 | 15 | Lab +8 |
| 20 Apr | 33 | 41 | 11 | Lab +8 |
| 19 Apr | 34 | 40 | 11 | Lab +6 |
| 19 Apr | 32 | 45 | 8 | Lab +13 |
| 18 Apr | 32 | 41 | 10 | Lab +9 |
| 17 Apr | 32 | 41 | 8 | Lab +9 |
| 16 Apr | 32 | 37 | 9 | Lab +5 |
….and now this YG Poll:
33/30/29
Electoral calculus (without tactical voting tool switched on) says
Con 244
Lab 284
LD 90
Labour 42 short of a majority
so as confirmed- quite amazing couple of days in polling history…
the least crazy poll out today
are you going to cover also this OnePoll for the People?
I think this poll is the “post Clegg Hangover.”
Thanks Anthony.
Still not on Sky News for some reason.
Nullo – see previous thread. Not enough information is available to tell whether it uses methods likely to produce a representative sample.
Trying really hard to be objective here – but it’s looking like the LD’s are almost entirely gaining at the expense of the Cons and not Labour.
Am I being biased?
Is this the most recently conducted poll of the lot? Do we have fieldwork dates for BPIX and ComRes?
Julian – seems that way! Gap only 3% again!76wc
@Rob Sheffield
I presume that if the result as predicted in your post would mean the LibDems would try to form some sort of alliance with Labour?
Great poll for Labour. Brown did much better in the debate than people have credited.
Still pretty impressive for Lib Dems.
If the Lib Dems are around 30% next weekend then the Tories may self-destruct – these opinion polls are all disastrous for them.
If the Lib Dems manage to pull out a decent lead then the whole narrative of this debate may change.
Like others have said though, I think what will be interesting is exactly where the Lib Dems are doing well. We may see some very large regional or local differences.
@Julian Gilbert
It looks as if the LDs are gaining more from the Conservatives for sure.
@Sue marsh- from other thread
“Hubby calls the elections on the Wives – Clegg, Brown, Cameron”
I’d go along with that 100%
Blimey!
Just mentioned on previous thread that Andrew neill’s blog – not surprisngly – regards this now as a watershed election – whatever the final figures.
Surely the Con drop is as significant – almost – as the LD rise?
I personally think they lost the plot right at the outset when they suddenly changed from “pay off the debt asap” to their strange tax changes which sort of gave away money and did nothing at all in that direction.
Just unravelled more and more – e.g. the ridicule with which “appoint your own teachers in your own schools etc etc” was with by the papers and the public.
Although I’m a Labour supporter I’ve always been a supporter of PR so this is beginning to look very good from my point of view.
Wonder if the LD’s would consider supporting the Tories without any guarantee of PR?
I would think not.
@ Julian
It would seem that way, that the Cons are losing almost all that which the Lib Dems are gaining.
This almost certainly indicates the softness of the Tory vote and the reason why it has seemed almost impossible for them to maintain reasonable leads during the campaign. There is clearly no appetite for Conservatism a la Dave.
I have a huge ego, and don’t want anyone to miss out on my wisdom. I was typing this on the old thread when this one was coming up:
Matt,
I think the idea of the LibDems getting around 100 seats is (dare I say it) conservative at the moment. If that happens, everything will depend on how the other two do respective to each other – well, duh. However, to use football parlance, Cameron will have the draw – in other words if it is close between Labour and the Conservatives, then Cameron will be PM – Labour will need to beat the Cons convincingly, by say 50 odd seats, for Brown to stay on.
Either way, with 100 seats to play with Clegg will have ample power to dictate stringent terms with whoever is PM, and electoral reform will be top of the list.
All IMHO, needless to say.
Spectacular, political common sense is flushed down the toilet by the X Factor generation. If a 90 minute performance is enough to sway the electorate in this fashion then we are all epicly doomed to a history of idiocy. Don’t forget these people who are allowed to vote have picked as many X Factor lemons as they have X Factor stars
I find this incredible too. Tory lead of only 3% over Labour but all within 4%. Labour will be pleased to be 2nd and Tory share is one of the smallest yet
still two and a half week to go
everything possible
i would love to see an england only poll
and regional polls
showing wether this is an uns-thing or not (as i think)
For Labour:
Bpix 28
Comres 27
ICM 29
Yougov 30
Average 28.75
Julian,
There is solid evidence from the recent polls to suggest that the lion’s share of the LD surge is coming from the Tories. There proportions are about 2:1:1 (Tory:Lab:Other).
Sorry, ignore! Figures mixed up.
Although just sample differences, the amazing thing is that the Yougov poll will actually come as a relief to the Tories and seeing themselves at 33% still and the LibDems back to below 30!
It does appear that the bounce began prior to the debates and I keep recalling a remark made by Clegg “Well yes I do want to be Prime Minister”. Impossible to fault the honesty of this remark and, although obviously all party leaders want to be prime minister at some time, none of them actually come out with it in the way Clegg came out with it. Did that make voters perceive Clegg as basically honest or at least more so than the other two? We shall never know of course.
The LibDem gains to seem to be primarily at the expense of the Tories at present. Does that mean that if they lose some of their gloss, will the Tories be the prime recipients of regaining votes. At the moment they must be begging for a poll that shows them at 35!
I can’t see anyone getting a majority, or anywhere near, on the evidence of recent polls. It’s merely a question of who will be the largest party, and more importantly – who the Lib Dems will choose to form a coalition with. I think this remains uncertain, though I suspect it’s more likely to be the Conservatives IMHO.
Are there any Tories can give us some idea of the likelihood of the party accepting PR as a condition of an alliance with the LD’s?
‘Julian Gilbert,
On this evidence, I think the Tories would seriously consider PR as it would clearly benefit them and the Lib Dems more than Labour. That doesn’t mean they necessarily will, of course.
The last four polls for the Conservatives give them
33%
31%
31%
33%
Which gives them an average of just 32%.
A little less than they achieved at the last GE under Michael Howard!
The 1970(I think!) GE opinion polls placed the then Liberal party so well that Jeremy Thorpe told his candidates to”go back to your constituencies and prepare for government”.
The Conservatives were trailing throughout but Ted Heath remained confident at all times-I seem to remember this was based on private polling from doorstep canvassers-and the rest,as they say, is geography.
@Matt
Assuming you turn out to be right, how on earth will Camron have any legitimacy to become PM?
There’s an odd mirror image in that “BIG society” message from the Cons.
Instead of the answer, as it was to Ted Heath’s question:
“Who governs the country?” being: “Not you mate.” the answer to Cameron seems to have been:
“well we thought you were going to actually…. but if you can’t be bothered———–”
@Chris -”Jeremy Thorpe told his candidates to”go back to your constituencies and prepare for government”.
Wasn’t it David Steel?
“Assuming you turn out to be right, how on earth will Camron have any legitimacy to become PM?”
On current polls no one will have any legitimacy to become PM!!!
Julian Gilbert
@Chris -”Jeremy Thorpe told his candidates to”go back to your constituencies and prepare for government”.
Wasn’t it David Steel?
———
And in 1981 not 1970.
Interesting to see the set of questions on Scotland in this poll – which presumably the Sun asked for in order to counter the SNP.
However, I do remember Anthony saying that one role of the polling company was to make sure that the questions asked were sensible.
in which case, how did YouGov allow this inanity?
“The Scottish National Party claims that if Scots vote to become independent Scotland would be entitled to 95% of the North Sea oil revenue currently received by the UK Treasury. Do you think…
An independent Scotland would deserve to get 95% of oil revenues because most of the oil is in Scottish waters: 15%
It is British, not Scottish, oil, and the revenues should be shared equally throughout Britain: 70%
Don’t know: 15%”
The questions are unrelated to the introductory statement. It’s not a matter of opinion. While Scotland is part of the UK, the revenues accrue to the UK state. Were Scotland to be independent, then they would accrue to the Scottish state. That is a matter of international law.
Asking what people would prefer to see is an entirely different question, though even then it’s actually an automatic consequence of whether Scots choose independence or not.
Poor polling Anthony!
Are we about to witness history?
The progressive leftists in power forever, and Tories out forever?
This is not good news for the Liberal Democrats.
Paul,
Spot on! And beautifully put, too!
Chris,
Wasn’t it David Steele, several years later, who came out with “go back to your constituencies…”?
The Cons and Lib Dems are opposed on almost everything: an impossible partnership in my opinion
@Matt
Very true. So why Cameron?
Also, Lab would have 30+ more seats, so that would be a win of sorts.
This is now shaping up as a momentous moment in UK politics. We do look to be heading for a hung parliament, with the likely outcome that our voting system will have it’s long overdue overhaul; thank goodness.
Anthony,
Did the Tories get a 1 point uplift under your new mthodology?
The Cons and Lib Dems are opposed on almost everything: an impossible partnership in my opinion
————————————————————————
I am sure that they can agree to disagree.
@Paul Croft,
But would the Lib Dems risk their increased popularity on a clearly unpopular government and leader in Labour? It’s fascinating IMO.
OK, Dutch, I’ll bite. Why is what not good news for the LDs?
What all these polls confirm is LD have had surge of support from debates and manifesto launch. All of these polls have been released within 48 hours of debate.
They dont tell us how long the bounce for the LD will last? It won,t last for long at these levels. Media driven poll boosts are temporary. Massive political events leading to incompetence are not ie Tories 92 ERM fiasco or Labour /GB election that never was.
What has suprised me is the amount of the Clegg/LD surge. I along with most reasonable people would agree Clegg won debate. But I thought DC gave solid perfomance. From tonights poll you would think DC dropped a massive clanger or offended a large part/demographic of the electorate. Cleggs surge in polls is way out of proportion to how the debate went. Any ideas?
Sky news poll had Cameron winning the debate after one hour? I think DC led with 41%. So something doesn,t add up.
For all the worried Tories here is a little scenario to put you back onto recovery.
1) Cameron has to give the performance of his life in debates 2/3
2) Positive campaigner from here on in, with delicate and well placed attacks on LD policy
3) Find a way of getting message across a vote for Clegg is a vote for Brown to remain in power for 5 more years. If these polls tell us anything , it confirms that theory.
4) Make campaign more about policy not just DC. Where is Ken Clarke? he represents economic competence and is well known and liked by the public
Is he on holiday in Iceland and cannot get back…!?
5)The ” Gold Standard” pollsters YG/ICM still have you in front. The LD bounce will start to drop, so not all is lost
6) Don,t panic….!
@Oldnat,
They are the most disgustingly leading questions that a reputable polling company have reputedly asked.
Are you sure it is true?
@Eoin Clarke,
According to the BBC live text, Labour has virtually given up on achieving a majority, and now merely wants to be the largest party. What do you think about this? Will the Lib Dems side with them or the Tories?
@Dutch
Thanks for that insightful analysis
Chris: Thorpe and election decade.
It was just the details you got wrong, don’t worry about it.
Just had a lovely, biased thought: the tories have got to act all positive and cheerful for nearly three weeks. Good luck with that sez I.